Short-term: supply exceeds demand
During 1-2 months, dealers accumulated a large amount of inventory. In order to relieve the inventory pressure and ensure the normal operation of the capital chain, the first batch of inventory will be sold quickly and the funds will be withdrawn, which should have a good discount.
Mid-term: demand exceeds supply
When the first batch of stock cars are sold, the dealer's funds will be withdrawn, and the pent-up demand for car purchase during the epidemic period will suddenly erupt. At the same time, from April to May, the potential contagion risk of public transportation still exists, which further stimulated everyone's enthusiasm for buying cars. After the epidemic, a large number of car buyers will flock to 4S stores.
At the other end of the soaring demand, production capacity is shrinking. During the epidemic period, the main engine factory basically stopped production for quite some time, and the recovery was gradual. The more extreme Wuhan area has not been completely unsealed, but as an important pillar of Wuhan automobile manufacturing, General Engine Factory, Buick Automobile Factory and Dongfeng Group: Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Peugeot, Dongfeng Citroen, Dongfeng Renault and Dongfeng Shenfeng are all in Wuhan. In addition to Wuhan, the production impact of car companies in other places during the epidemic was not small.
In addition, because the upstream and downstream of the whole automobile industry chain is particularly long, a car has tens of thousands of parts, but as long as there is a problem with the supply of one part, the production line will get stuck, so the supply of automobile production cannot be restored to normal level in a short time. At that time, there will be a phenomenon that the inventory of dealers is in short supply, and the discount of those discounted models will be reduced. If you pick up a car at a low price, you may increase the bundled gift package, financial insurance and even increase the price.
However, not all brands are affected. If the production capacity of this brand is not enough, you can change it to another one, unless it is a model that has been selling well and the price is firm. In case of insufficient production capacity, the price may increase.
This time period will be shorter. As long as it returns to normal, the whole automobile market will enter a long-term weak period after everyone's efforts to delay buying a car have passed.
Long-term: the economy is weak and sales are declining.
From the economic point of view, novel coronavirus's global spread began this year, followed by the oil war of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries between Japan and Russia, and then the US stock market melted down four times in a month. Coupled with the once-in-a-decade economic downturn, the global economic environment is almost a foregone conclusion. For China, the automobile market has become saturated, the growth rate of sales has been declining, and the negative impact of COVID-19 on the economy will continue, so the domestic automobile market as a whole is still not optimistic this year.
It is precisely because the overall automobile market environment is not optimistic that it is possible to have a large number of national/local policies to promote automobile consumption and increase economic vitality.
At present, China Automobile Association has suggested that relevant departments should introduce policies to stimulate market potential as soon as possible, which are closely related to people buying cars. We can look at the bottom in advance. These policies include:
1, appropriately increase the number plate cooperation in the restricted purchase area;
2. Lift the ban on buying new energy vehicles;
3. Incorporate personal car purchase expenses into the special additional deduction of personal income tax;
4. Adjust the purchase tax rate of small-displacement vehicles and introduce the policy of promoting consumption by going to the countryside;
5, the implementation of the "national three" emission vehicle purchase tax relief;
6. Increase auto financial support;
7. Increase the VAT refund rate for automobile export to promote automobile export;
8. Promote the circulation and consumption of used cars;
On March 1, the first city issued a policy to encourage automobile consumption after the epidemic. Foshan City, Guangdong Province, proposed to encourage the consumption of "National Six" standard displacement cars, and new car owners were given a subsidy of 2,000 yuan each; Car owners will receive a subsidy of 3,000 yuan for each new car they buy; If the quantity and unit price of collective purchase meet the requirements, each car will be subsidized by 5000 yuan. The policy will be officially implemented on March 1 and will be valid for one year.
In the long run, the economic situation will deteriorate this year. From the national policy to the enterprise strategy, and then to the preferential treatment and maintenance of 4S stores, the cost of buying a car will definitely decline in the long run.
Looking back at the oil price, I feel that I have made a lot of money before I broke six. In recent days, 92% of cars are four-start, and in some places even three-start, and the cost of car maintenance is also decreasing. It is estimated that this oil war will last for at least half a year, which is a good thing for the groups who buy cars with money.
On the one hand, the production capacity is declining, and the supply is in short supply; On the other side is the economic downturn, and the policy rescues the market. As a commodity, a car needs careful consideration before making decisions and choices for many families, and the price of a car is often hundreds of thousands to millions. The impact of policy changes on the cost of owning a car should not be underestimated. Buying a car is a technical job. I hope the above information can be used as a reference for everyone to buy a car.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.