Former United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon suddenly announced on February 1 that he would not participate in the South Korean presidential election. The results of the poll released by South Korea on February 2 showed that this led to drastic changes in the pattern of presidential elections in South Korea, and potential candidates reshuffled. South Korean public opinion believes that Ban Ki-moon's abandonment of the election has brought great impact to the conservative camp and made the opposition camp optimistic, but there are still many unpredictable variables in the presidential election.
Details:
Ban Ki-moon suddenly announced his abandonment of the election, only 43 days after he stepped down as Secretary-General of the United Nations and only 20 days after he returned to South Korea. Observers believe that there are three main reasons for Ban Ki-moon's "quick retreat": First, his reputation is damaged and he is not acclimatized. Ban Ki-moon's younger brother and nephew were prosecuted for taking bribes in the United States, which affected his reputation. His embarrassing moments in domestic activities were frequently photographed by the media, and he was criticized by his opponents as aloof and divorced from the people.
Second, the political orientation is vague and confuses people's hearts. Ban Ki-moon called himself a "progressive conservative" and hoped to accommodate all "like-minded" people. He has neither established a new political party nor joined any existing political party. Public opinion believes that Ban Ki-moon's message is ambiguous, which makes people confused about his political orientation.
Third, there is a lack of solutions to domestic and international problems. Ban Ki-moon did not put forward specific solutions to the polarization between the rich and the poor, youth unemployment and North Korea's nuclear program. His recent remarks were dismissed as "empty talk" by the Korean media, which led to the middle forces that originally supported him to draw a clear line with him.
For the above reasons, the "Pan Cyclone" that Ban Ki-moon blew up after returning to China has been weakening day by day, and his poll support rate has been declining all the way, and the gap with Moon Jae in, the former leader of the largest opposition party, the Common Democratic Party, which ranks first in the polls has been widening. It can be said that Ban Ki-moon's "emergency retreat" is actually "retreating despite difficulties" to a large extent.
Observers pointed out that Ban Ki-moon is a professional diplomat, and his political strength and ability to resist pressure have not been tested. The road to South Korea's presidential election is full of unpredictable "bloodshed", which requires a strong ability to cope, which Ban Ki-moon, who was "airborne", could not get in a short time.
The candidate reshuffled the cards.
Ban Ki-moon's abandonment of the election led to a sudden change in the pattern of South Korea's presidential election, and potential candidates reshuffled.
The latest survey released by the Korean polling agency "Real Gauge" on the 2 nd shows that after Ban Ki-moon abandoned the election, Moon Jae in, the former leader of the Common Democratic Party, continued to lead with a support rate of 25.4%; An Zhengqian, the governor of Chungcheongnam-do of the Common Democratic Party, ranked fifth before, and this time he jumped to the second place with the support rate of 1 1.2%; Premier Jing Anhuan, who ranked sixth before, rose to the third place with the support rate of 10.5%; Li Zaiming, mayor of South Gyeonggi Province, the Common Democratic Party, Cheol-Su An, former leader of the United Party of the opposition nationals, and Liu Chengyuan, a member of the "orthodox party", ranked fourth to sixth with 9.6%, 9.0% and 4.9% of the votes respectively.
Observers believe that the general election pattern after Ban Ki-moon's abandonment is beneficial to the opposition camp as a whole. Personally, the biggest beneficiaries in the short term are Zheng Xi and Jing Anhuan. Cheol-Su An, the representative of the "third detachment", and Liu Chengyuan, who will become the "only child" of the conservative camp if Jing Anhuan doesn't come out, are also looking for a turning point. Korean media analysis said that more "hidden dragons" or moving with the trend do not rule out the possibility of killing more dark horses.
Although "Moon Jae in's general trend theory" is very popular at present, there are also public opinions that his political leadership is insufficient and he faces challenges from Li Zaiming and An Zhengqian in the primary election. Whether he can win is uncertain.
At the same time, the history of "killing the first bird with a stick" has been staged many times in South Korea's presidential election. At present, Moon Jae in's popularity is high, and it may encounter multiple attacks from competitors in the ruling and opposition parties. Therefore, the future direction of South Korea's presidential election pattern is full of variables.