(Donbass area)
In fact, there are ready-made examples of the future situation in Donbass, such as the "Transnistrian Republic" in Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and the Republic of Nagorny Karabakh. These places were also called "frozen conflict zones" in the post-Soviet era. There is no doubt that these areas are basically preserved under the support and protection of Russia, and Russia also uses these disputed areas to coerce its host country, making it impossible for it to join NATO easily. From this point of view, these areas are actually buffer zones imposed by Russia to safeguard its own security.
(argument)
So under what conditions will Donbass be regained control by Ukraine?
There is only one situation, that is, the political situation in Russia has changed greatly. Either it is in chaos, unable to take care of Donbass and unable to provide necessary support. Ukraine took the opportunity to seize Donbass. Either the right-wing nationalist forces of the United Russia Party headed by Putin collapsed, and the pro-western liberals in Russia seized power and voluntarily gave up their support, making the judges in Donbass give up their illusions. However, it seems that this situation will not happen for at least five years, because the domestic situation in Russia is still controllable and Putin's position is still stable.
(Putin)
However, no one person or political force can be in power forever. The longer you are in power, the more problems you will accumulate. The forces of Putin and the United Russia Party may also step down in the future, because Russia's own economic and social contradictions cannot be resolved. Just like Yanukovych, a pro-Russian force in Ukraine, it was not the western color revolution that made him step down, not that his power was not big enough, but that the people had a hard time. Russia's current domestic economic situation is not optimistic. Long-term western sanctions and the low international energy prices forced Putin to tighten his belt.
(Medvedev became Putin's back-burner)
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Both Donetsk and Lugansk joined Russia on their own initiative, and even some people have been manipulating it, such as Pushilin, now the so-called "Donetsk People's Republic". However, Russia is well aware of the consequences of this, which may directly lead to the complete reunification of Europe and the United States and impose more sanctions and pressure. At the same time, Ukraine and Georgia will soon join NATO, and Russia will be completely isolated from the international community. If Russia wants to maintain its current state and make a breakthrough, it can only hope that the contradictions and differences between the United States and Europe are getting bigger and bigger, and cooperate with the United States to divide and disintegrate the European Union. Making friends with national and populist political parties on the right and far right in Europe will affect the domestic political trend of European countries, and in fact, it is practicing this strategy. In this way, Russia's strategic pressure will be reduced a lot.