The financial turmoil in the United States caught the world off guard. Although it mainly involves the financial industry, it has dealt a great blow to the American auto industry: the shares of GM and Ford "worked hard for 80 years and returned to the pre-World War II overnight", and bankruptcy is just around the corner.
However, the particularity of the automobile industry determines that these companies cannot choose bankruptcy to survive, because no consumers will buy cars that enter the "bankruptcy protection" company.
To make matters worse, on June 4th, 165438+, the Bush administration rejected the request of GM and Chrysler to borrow money from the government. According to the survey, the American people also expressed their opposition to saving Detroit, thinking that blindly increasing the production of gas-guzzling cars in pursuit of high profits is the main cause of today's predicament and is not worthy of sympathy.
Crisis is both "danger" and "opportunity". The crisis of American automobile industry may be a good opportunity for China. If China can seize this opportunity, it should also give the United States a chance.
Opportunities for China Automobile Enterprises?
As the third largest automobile producer in the world, China automobile enterprises frequently show their swords to the American market, and China brand cars, large and small, can be seen at the Detroit Auto Show every year. But dealers all over the United States basically don't have China cars. Whether it is the cooperation between Chery and Chrysler or the Great Wall's attempt to enter the United States through Chamco, it is difficult to make a breakthrough in the short term. The reason is that one is the product and the other is the market.
Generally, the quality and performance of products made in China can basically meet the requirements of the American market. What China's export enterprises lack is mainly the market. China is different. From engines to seat materials, the quality and performance of products are far behind the requirements of the American market. At present, Changan Automobile may be the only one that can consider establishing a foothold in the American market. But in order to enter the American market, Changan Automobile and its American partner Tiger Truck have made great efforts. Tiger's boss, Mr. Mike Ward, told me that the paint of Changan Automobile they supplied to the American market can withstand the salt spray test for 2000 hours, which is higher than the standard of Mercedes-Benz for 800 hours. There is only one purpose to prove the quality of "Made in China".
Besides technology, the sales and service channels formed by American automobile industry for many years are also lacking by China automobile suppliers. At present, most domestic brands have not established their own sales and service systems in the United States. Everyone is saying that there are not many successes. The American market is probably the oldest and most mature automobile market in the world. The market capacity ranks first in the world, but the entry threshold is high, and the operation mode is different from other parts of the world. It takes a long time to enter this market normally. Honda entered the United States as a light motorcycle after World War II, and its cars were welcomed by American users in the 1970s. At first, Toyota could not sell the cars that entered the American market. Finally, according to the suggestion of American experts, it has made great changes to the car, including changing the position of the radio and information package, adjusting the windows and so on. Before it was sold. South Korea began to try to enter the American market in the 1980s, and it was not until 2 1 century that their products were really accepted. Therefore, it is better for China automobile enterprises to have a shortcut to enter the United States.
So Detroit is the most attractive place for China to find buyers, because there is no gap with the products and markets of other major automobile producing countries in the world, such as Japan, Germany and South Korea. Once China enterprises successfully acquire the three major American automobile companies, it may not only save the American automobile industry, but also make a qualitative leap in the strength of China automobile enterprises. This may be a shortcut.
Acquisition opportunities and strategies
However, the acquisition is not easy. The three major American automobile companies are not only automobile brands, but also "national brands" and "century-old stores" in the United States. The United States will never let them die, and it is impossible for foreign companies to buy them easily. Their first choice is of course self-salvation. If China's corporate overlords go their own way, it will probably lead to the rebound of American nationalism, and eventually repeat the failure of CNOOC's acquisition of Unocal and Haier's acquisition of Maytag, and all previous efforts will be wasted.
But this does not necessarily mean that China enterprises have no opportunities. Several strategies are available.
The simplest thing is to invest in the three major auto companies. But I think this is the worst policy. Because these three companies can be described as "old state-owned enterprises in the United States", the biggest problem that has plagued them for many years is similar to the old state-owned enterprises in China: excessive burden and high cost. The main reason is that the United Auto Workers' Union (UAW) is the largest trade union organization in the United States, and its strength makes the labor costs of these auto companies too high. If China investors buy shares directly, there is no way to fundamentally solve their old problems, and the prospects are not optimistic. It is for this reason that I am not optimistic about the merger of GM and Chrysler, just like China's merger of "No.1 Machine Tool Plant" and "No.2 Machine Tool Plant" under the same system. What's the point?
2.
China's auto industry is facing challenges due to the orderly bankruptcy of American Big Three.
[China Auto Brand Network News] On Christmas Eve, the US government finally announced a rescue plan for the auto industry, which is undoubtedly a reassurance for nervous Americans, at least they can relax a little during the Christmas holiday. However, short-term loans can only be said to be a drop in the bucket for the ailing Detroit Big Three, and the crisis has not been eliminated. Bush has tried his best, at least without violating the principle of "free market". During his term of office, he did not let the automobile industry collapse. The eggs of the crisis were thrown at the incoming Obama.
Detroit on Christmas Eve
Although the current rescue plan is not satisfactory, from another perspective, the status quo of Detroit Big Three, especially General Motors, is really embarrassing, and even the best rescue plan may not be able to tide over the difficulties. The loss of $38.7 billion in 2007 made it difficult for GM to recover. If the environment is not so bad this year, there may be a chance to turn around Gan Kun. But in the face of the economic recession caused by the financial crisis, GM burns $2 billion every month.
The key problem is that in 2009, the demand for passenger cars in the United States is likely to drop to 6.5438+million, while the current production capacity of the American automobile industry is 6.5438+0.8 million. Judging from the scale of this crisis, it is almost impossible to solve the overcapacity without causing more trouble.
"A large number of auto workers will lose their jobs."
Worries about the unemployment rate are one of the main reasons why the US government is unwilling to give up the Detroit Big Three. However, this does not mean that the Big Three can "threaten" the government. Analysts pointed out that Japanese and Korean car companies have been localized in the United States for more than ten years. After the collapse of Detroit Big Three, their market share and human resources will be divided by these Japanese and Korean car companies.
At present, the only problem is that the crisis has swept the world, and Japanese and Korean enterprises have also been affected. Toyota is about to face its first annual loss in history and freeze its factory construction in North America indefinitely. If the Big Three fall now, Japanese and Korean car companies may not be able to quickly digest various problems in the market. However, in the long run, Japanese and Korean car companies have stronger vitality and competitiveness, and have greater hope of surviving the crisis. Therefore, the rumor that the US government will let the Detroit Big Three go bankrupt in an orderly manner will soon become a reality.
According to relevant American laws, bankruptcy can be divided into bankruptcy liquidation and bankruptcy protection. Among them, bankruptcy liquidation will freeze all assets and auction quickly. If this method is implemented, about 2 million people in the upstream and downstream of the three major American automobile companies will be directly hit, which will be a disaster. Therefore, compared with bankruptcy liquidation, it is more feasible for the three major automobile companies to enter bankruptcy protection procedures. By then, the three major auto companies and their creditors can renegotiate the debt structure and introduce new equity and debt investors, while their main business will not be greatly affected. Northwest Airlines and Pan Am both entered bankruptcy protection, which eased the pressure and got out of the predicament.
However, even bankruptcy protection cannot solve all problems. Literally, "on the verge of bankruptcy" and "entering bankruptcy proceedings" are also completely qualitative changes. For the automobile industry, once the Detroit Big Three enters bankruptcy protection, the market information will collapse completely. What is more difficult is that bankruptcy protection cannot be achieved overnight, and the whole process may last for several years. "Sleeping" will make the situation more complicated.
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