In the past year, industry policies have been continuously tightened, and financing and liabilities have become a boulder that crushes many star housing enterprises; This year, real estate people were in dire straits, and even nearly 100 people received resignation notices on the same day; This year, housing enterprises tried their best to sell houses to save themselves, and "going to work at home" was quickly banned as soon as it came out of the rivers and lakes.
Looking back on the past is to better meet the future. After the deep reshuffle, more and more warming signals indicate the good news of the industry.
Spring doesn't seem far away.
0 1 industry: financing dilemma and self-help of housing enterprises
Since the introduction of the three red lines and the centralized loan policy in 2020, the financing and supply and demand of housing enterprises have been tightened continuously in 20021year.
20211March, the supervision of real estate financing compliance policies continued to strengthen, and Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and other places strictly investigated the illegal entry of operating loans into the market; In April, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued guidelines at the same time to strictly control the issuance of corporate bonds by city investment companies and qualified enterprises; In June, it was reported that the People's Bank of China had included the business ticket data of the "three red lines" pilot houses in the monitoring scope. At that time, some insiders of real estate enterprises revealed to real estate pi that relevant real estate enterprises were required to report commercial ticket data every month.
Under the policy of continuous tightening in the first three quarters, some housing enterprises broke out in debt default. Since September 20021year, Evergrande has suffered many debt shocks, and the top flow of housing enterprises has fallen from the debt altar; In the middle of the night of September 20th, 20021year, the share price of Xinli Holdings suddenly plummeted by 87%. Late at night on September 30, Xinli Holdings announced that several financings were overdue and the 65.438+0.49 billion shares held by Chairman Zhang Yuanlin were also forced to close their positions. At the beginning of 2002110, Fantasia Holdings announced that a bill of $206 million was overdue; At the beginning of 20021165438+10, the news that Caesar's wealth management products were in a liquidity crisis was refreshed; 165438+1Since mid-October, China Aoyuan has begun to seek a solution for the extension of three domestic debts; 65438+February, Sunshine Group, the major shareholder of Sunshine City, substantially breached the contract; On the evening of February 27th, 65438, Huaxia Happiness disclosed the debt restructuring plan.
The general trend of the industry is transmitted to the marketing side, and financial stability and walks have become selling points. For example, the slogan of "Longhu Group, Financial Stability" was played in the publicity of the Longhu Shuguang City project in Ezhou. Wuhan Xinbinkai Hanyang District Project directly slogan "Evergrande stops work, we will not stop work".
Behind the dramatic selling point of "walking", it is revealed that since the second half of the year, some enterprises have frequently stopped working or even exploded their positions due to financial problems. For ordinary property buyers, once faced with the unfinished project after hollowing out six wallets, the loss will be huge and unbearable.
In addition to fancy publicity gimmicks, "working to the home" also appears frequently. However, unlike before, most of these heavily launched public rental houses are price-cutting sales measures that housing enterprises have to implement in response to the "price limit order". The demand for payment by housing enterprises is increasing urgently.
Real estate agent: the helplessness behind the change of generals
"202 1,1654381October 29 informed me that I had encountered unprecedented difficulties and could not continue to perform the labor contract, and promised to compensate me for one month's salary." Gu Nan (pseudonym) has been lying at home for more than a month until she decided to record her unemployment diary on a public platform.
Gu Nan is the deputy investment manager of a real estate company in Dongguan. Since she lost her job, Gu Nan began to submit resumes frequently. In addition to the real estate industry, he also invested in many positions related to BD functions in the same industry. Last week, I interviewed Weilai for business development and failed. Recently, I also voted for Didi, Li and so on. And I didn't reply. The general direction is to look for opportunities in other industries and look for sunrise industries supported by national policies.
Resignation of real estate developers has gradually become a common thing in the industry. Behind it is the sadness and helplessness of real estate developers struggling to save themselves.
June 65438+1October 65438+In June this year, Zhong Liang, a representative of medium-sized housing enterprises, said that due to the adjustment of organizational structure, the headquarters functions of the holding group will be integrated with the real estate group, and more than 300 employees will be laid off or transferred.
However, the group headquarters requires all employees to report in advance for normal attendance on June 65438+ 10/7. In other words, more than 300 employees will choose to transfer or leave their jobs on the day they receive the notice.
Although the company later clarified that only 100 people were actually laid off, and the company would make compensation for resignation according to N+ 1 stipulated by law, so many people lost their jobs in one day, which still embarrassed the whole industry.
In addition to the bottom employees, middle-level and even upper-level executives are also facing no small challenge. Real estate pi learned that some executives are not as beautiful as they thought. An executive with an annual salary of 7.5 million was given 0 points by his boss because he failed to complete the annual target, but actually only got half of his salary, that is, 3.5 million.
According to incomplete statistics of the media, nearly 800 senior executives experienced personnel changes in 20021year, among which more than 300 senior executives resigned (resigned, resigned, dismissed and retired).
Outlook: the policy breaks the ice and the turning point is approaching.
For housing enterprises, 202 1 is the most unforgettable year. After experiencing the hesitation, frustration and despair at the bottom of the valley, the warming signal at the policy end in 2022 also made real estate people start to ignite new hopes. Among them, high-quality housing enterprises will usher in the opportunity to take the lead in development.
At the beginning of 2002165438+2, the CBRC indicated that the loans for real estate development, mergers and acquisitions at this stage should be allocated reasonably according to different local conditions. In addition, the CSRC and the Association of Interbank Dealers also reported that they will support high-quality real estate enterprises to issue bonds, and the funds can be used for mergers and acquisitions of enterprises in danger.
At the beginning of June 5438+ 10, 2022, some real estate enterprises revealed to the media that at present, banks have informed some large-scale high-quality real estate enterprises that the relevant M&A loans are no longer included in the "three red lines" related indicators for the acquisition of project liabilities of insurance enterprises.
654381October 6, the M&A loan policy with debt was implemented. 65438+1October 12, China Merchants Shekou took the lead in completing the registration of the first M&A, becoming the "first real estate enterprise to eat crabs" this year.
On October 27th, 65438/KLOC-0, at the investor meeting of COSCO Group, the management of COSCO Group revealed that after M&A loans were not included in the "three red lines", the regulators and dealers' associations under the People's Bank of China encouraged high-quality housing enterprises to make some special loans for M&A, and COSCO was also on the invited white list. The company was also trying and preparing, but according to the overall strategic considerations, it would not merge for M&A. On the same day, Vanke issued the first phase of this year's 3 billion yuan medium-term notes, which are intended for the construction of commercial housing projects. The current interest rate is 2.95%, and the main body and debt rating results are AAA.
In addition to the loose policies on the financing side, the issuance of mortgages, especially second-hand housing loans, has also begun to accelerate. According to authoritative media reports, the period from early June, 5438 +2022 10 is about one week. 202 1 In the second half of the year, when lending is difficult, this link will be extended to more than three months.
In terms of land, with the relaxation of the third round of centralized land supply rules in Hangzhou, the popularity of land auction has gone against the trend under the rules of land price reduction and housing price increase.
Winter has passed and spring will come, but the logic of the real estate industry has undergone earth-shaking changes. In the past, it was no longer feasible for real estate to expand by high leverage, and the industry gradually evolved into an industry with fixed profits and biased towards basic manufacturing. Small and beautiful companies that are deeply involved in the region will escape this round of historical reshuffle, and state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises can get more policy inclinations.
In 2022, a head appeared at the dawn of spring.