Mr. Zhu Ping of Guangfa Fund has an interesting article "Gambling Resources" on his Sina personal blog. It mentioned a famous case in an economics textbook: Is the price of consumable resources rising or falling?

Julien Simon, a representative of the affluent school, believes that the progress of technology can find any substitute that can consume resources, so in the long run, prices will fall rather than rise. On the other hand, pessimists believe that due to the scarcity of natural resources and the infinity of human needs, the price of resource products is bound to rise. So at 1980, the pessimist Bohr ehrlich (a famous biologist and environmentalist) made a bet with Simon, a representative of the rich faction. Ehrlich predicted that there would be a shortage of main raw materials in 1985, and placed a bet of 1000 USD on five metals: chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten. He decided. However, Simon finally won. After adjusting for the influence of inflation, the prices of these five metals all dropped a lot in 10. In fact, judging from the history of 100 in the last century, the prices of most resources are falling rather than rising, especially compared with the wages of workers, the decline rate is nearly ten times.

However, just as people gradually tend to agree with the views of the rich, a vigorous bull market for commodities since 2002 has blurred us, and at this time, the scarcity of commodities seems to be the dominant market again. Aside from the low interest rate environment, the depreciation of the US dollar, the flood of speculation and other factors, behind the sharp rise in the prices of energy, gold and basic metals, people have re-recognized the scarcity of resource commodities: the peak period of crude oil supply has passed, and the future supply will gradually fail; According to the current mining speed, copper can only be mined for 29 years, and then we have to go to the bottom of the sea to find resources ... If we compare the commodity research reports of a few years ago with the current ones,

The striking phrase "out of concern for future supply" has now become the main tone in various reports-at this time, we unconsciously tend to be pessimistic.

But when it comes to commodity investment, it is important to grasp the general trend like the master Rogers, but it is not enough. Commodity investment is an art, and the key to profit lies not only in your direction judgment, but also in your fund management, trading skills and emotional control, which is a process of constantly improving and sublimating your self-realm.

Recently, the market is in a state of consolidation and stalemate. We put a small amount in operation, just a tentative transaction, waiting for the next step to be clear.