For some time, domestic reports on industrial robots have appeared in newspapers many times. Among them, Foxconn, which is mass-producing iphone6, has attracted much attention because its founder Guo Taiming has repeatedly declared that "people should breathe, but machines should not".
Will the use of industrial robots lead to significant layoffs in manufacturing? In the Pearl River Delta region and the Yangtze River Delta region, where the technical level is relatively advanced and the labor cost is relatively high, this kind of worry is even stronger. In addition, a report of Boston Consulting Group shows that if the real production efficiency is taken into account, the actual cost of China's manufacturing industry is close to that of the United States, mainly because the labor cost in China is rising faster than the production efficiency.
On the one hand, the labor cost advantage of China's manufacturing industry is fading. On the other hand, foreign manufacturing enterprises are adopting a large number of new generation industrial robots to make up for their high labor costs. This has caused another worry, that is, will China's position in international division of labor based on the comparative advantage of labor cost be affected? Will the development and popularization of industrial robots end the "world factory"? "The advantages of assembly line workers in early investment, flexible manual operation and spatial flexibility are beyond the reach of industrial robots, and it is too early for robots to replace labor." Bright Lo, vice president of Dongguan Robotics Association, said that the wide application of industrial robots is one of the characteristics of the third industrial revolution marked by digitalization, intelligence and networking. If the second industrial revolution realized the replacement of manual labor by machines through the automation and standardization of equipment, then the ongoing "industrial robot revolution" promoted the replacement of mental labor by machines, and its influence was not limited to the improvement of industrial production efficiency, but also fundamentally overcame the contradiction between product cost and product diversity under the traditional industrial production mode, thus promoting the transformation from linear product development process to parallel product development process, making the performance of industrial products significantly improved, product functions greatly enriched and product development cycle greatly shortened.
From the development history of human industrial civilization, Bright Lo believes that although industrial robots will inevitably lead to profound changes in production relations, the status and role of people in industrial production will change; However, it does not necessarily lead to a large number of industrial workers losing their jobs, and China's position as the world factory will not end. "Industrial Robot Revolution" is both a challenge and an opportunity for China's manufacturing industry and industrial workers.
Since18th century, Britain took the lead in starting the industrial revolution, human civilization has entered the era of industrialization. In the process of industrialization, machines constantly replace human labor. Undoubtedly, this is a process of liberating and developing productive forces. Due to the appearance of machines, human beings have been liberated from heavy and repetitive physical labor and engaged in occupations that need creativity and thinking more. Judging from the history of the previous two industrial revolutions, the adoption of machinery has at most caused short-term structural unemployment in a certain region, a certain industry and a certain link, while a large number of long-term unemployment caused by the use of machinery has not appeared. On the contrary, due to the acceleration of machine technology progress, the development speed of emerging jobs has accelerated. For example, after the first industrial revolution, the adoption of agricultural machinery liberated a large number of labor from heavy and simple agricultural labor, and a large number of industrial workers appeared; The second industrial revolution greatly improved the production efficiency of factories, various large-scale industrial machinery were adopted, and the labor force was transferred from extractive industries to manufacturing and service industries. At present, a new industrial revolution is erupting in the world, and the productivity of agriculture, industry and service industry is further improved. The speed of labor transfer from traditional jobs to some emerging jobs is faster than that of the previous two industrial revolutions. According to statistics, in 20 10, the ten most urgent jobs in the United States did not exist at all in 2004. Although some jobs were eliminated by new machines, the serious unemployment problem did not appear, because soon, other emerging jobs appeared. Take the rapid emergence of new jobs as an example. In China, the number of employees in information transmission, software and technology services has doubled in the past decade, while the number of employees in real estate has increased by 1.3 times. We can be optimistic about this problem, and we don't need to worry about the serious unemployment problem that a large number of industrial robots may bring.
To discuss the impact and influence of industrial robots on manufacturing and employment in China, we should first distinguish industrial robots from general industrial machinery. Bright Lo said that the so-called "industrial robot" refers to a machine that can complete all kinds of complex, repetitive and programmed operations through human instructions, and can adjust its actions through self-perception according to changes in its own environment within a limited range; General industrial machinery is a mechanical equipment that completes an action through human remote control. The important difference between the two is whether people need to operate at the control terminal during the working process, robots don't need human assistance, and an industrial machine can't do without human operation. Traditional robots need to be programmed before people, while the core feature of a new generation of industrial robots is intelligence. Robots equipped with sensors and artificial intelligence can automatically identify environmental changes, thus reducing dependence on people. It can be expected that the future unmanned factory can automatically plan the production process and technology according to the order requirements, and can complete the production without participation. At present, the number of industrial robots in China's manufacturing industry is still relatively limited, and there is still a big gap between the number of robots per 10,000 employees in the manufacturing industry and manufacturing powers such as Japan, the United States, Germany and South Korea. What really replaces manual operation in large numbers is actually general construction machinery.
Wu Fengli, Chairman of Guangdong Tuosida Technology Co., Ltd. also participated in the discussion. He believes that general industrial machinery has replaced human physical strength; Industrial robots make up for the accuracy that manual operation can't achieve and the working environment or intensity that people can't win. At least at the present stage, the substitution relationship between industrial robots and human manual operation in China manufacturing industry is not significant. Industrial robots have outstanding advantages in high repeatability, high intensity and high precision, and manual operation has outstanding advantages in early investment, flexibility and spatial flexibility. The industries and fields where industrial robots have competitive advantages do not completely overlap with the industries and fields where the comparative advantages of China's labor force are the most obvious. In other words, the large-scale adoption of industrial robots by domestic manufacturing enterprises will only replace manual operation in individual industries and links, which will have a positive impact on the improvement of production efficiency and product quality in the short term, and will not change the labor-intensive characteristics of China's manufacturing industry, nor will it cause serious unemployment. It is reported that although the "unmanned factory" has been declared since 20 10, Guo Taiming's foundry empire still uses a lot of manpower to assemble mobile phones on the assembly line. The reason is that at present, more than 90% of the process of a smart phone still needs the operator's hand to complete. "There are five or six hundred parts in the mobile phone. It is still impossible to assemble them one by one with robots in a tiny human space of four or five inches. " Obviously, manual operation has some outstanding advantages, which cannot be achieved by industrial robots at present.
Compared with developed countries, developing countries such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, South America and Africa, which have more labor cost advantages, will be China's biggest competitors in manufacturing. Wu Fengli said that the extensive use of industrial robots in the manufacturing industry in developed countries can indeed alleviate the development contradiction between labor scarcity and high labor costs to a certain extent. After the financial crisis, there seems to be a trend for manufacturing industries to return to developed countries, but this will not change the basic pattern of international division of labor, let alone "end" China's position as the world factory.
On the one hand, industrial robots have been used in developed countries for a long time, and the industries and fields in which robots participate in production have been relatively fixed, and its development is mainly the upgrading of robots in the same position. For example, since 2000, the number of robots per 10,000 employees in American and German manufacturing industries has only maintained a slow growth, and the value of this indicator in Japanese manufacturing industry has even declined. It can be said that at present, industrial robots mainly have a great influence on the manufacturing industry in developing countries such as China. Developed countries develop and adopt more advanced industrial robots in order to seize the commanding heights of new industries, instead of competing with developing countries such as China in low-end labor-intensive industries. On the other hand, historically, the industrial exports of Britain, America, Germany, Japan and other countries once ranked first in the world. The decline in the proportion of industrial exports in these countries is not because they or their competitors use more machines. On the contrary, emerging trading powers are countries with outstanding comparative advantages in labor. Studies have shown that the main competition facing China's manufacturing industry in the future will actually come from developing countries with more labor cost advantages, such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, South America and Africa, rather than developed countries. Therefore, it is not accurate to say that developed countries will adopt more industrial robots, which will "end" China's status as a factory in the world.
The emergence of industrial robots is not a recent thing. Wu Fengli said that as early as the 1950s, American manufacturing enterprises began to use robots with servo motors. Since 1970s, industrial robots have been widely used in assembly lines in developed countries such as America, Japan and Europe. At present, industrial robots have developed to the third generation with primary artificial intelligence. The work content of industrial robots has changed from the initial repetitive simple operation to complex anthropomorphic operation; The working relationship between robots and humans has changed from isolated use to close cooperation; The technology adopted by robots has changed from individual dispersion technology to multi-domain integration technology; The focus of robot research and development has shifted from basic technology research and development to application development. After the outbreak of the new industrial revolution, industrial robots have shown the development trend of informationization, networking, intelligence, multifunction, standardization and modularization. More importantly, in many manufacturing countries, including China, the cost and price of industrial robots have been greatly reduced, and the payback period has been accepted.
Some domestic manufacturing enterprises have begun to realize transformation and development by adding or updating more advanced industrial robots. For example, by using robots, OEM enterprises represented by Foxconn can obtain OEM orders with higher quality requirements but higher processing costs, thus changing the distribution position of adverse value at the bottom of the "smile curve" to some extent; Enterprises represented by Haier use a lot of industrial robots, implement stricter technological requirements, produce products with higher technical content and more stable quality, and compete with developed countries in high-end and high value-added links. Generally speaking, the use of industrial robots by manufacturing enterprises in China can greatly improve the quality of industrial products and enforce stricter production and process standards, which is very beneficial to the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry.
The maturity of industrial robot technology and cost reduction are important opportunities for the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry, but they also bring challenges. As industrial robots become more and more complex, higher requirements are put forward for industrial workers' skills, programming and system processing knowledge in many fields such as R&D, design, production, installation, debugging and maintenance. However, China's manufacturing industry is still short of talents in this field, and the lack of relevant talents may be the most prominent constraint to the growth of the number of robots used in China. On the other hand, there is a huge gap between China's robot industry and developed countries. Some key links have not been broken, and there are many technical and technological shortcomings. The accuracy and stability of domestic robots can not meet the requirements of industrial production. At present, more than 90% of the market share of industrial robots in China is occupied by foreign companies such as FANUC Company of Japan, Yaskawa Electric Company of Japan, ABB Robotics Company of Sweden and KUKA Company of Germany. According to the prediction of the World Federation of Industrial Robots, China will surpass Japan to become the largest industrial robot market in the world in 20 16. The development of China's industrial robot industry is seriously lagging behind the market development, and the development and use of robots in the future may be subject to people.
The wave of "robot revolution" cannot be ignored. Under its cleansing, the connotation of a country's industrial competitive advantage, the resource base on which its industrial competitive advantage depends and the form of industrial division of labor between countries will eventually undergo profound changes. If we can't meet the requirements of this revolution, we will face the danger of further losing our industrial competitive advantage.
In view of the above problems, our policy should focus on how to optimize the structure of human resources in China to adapt to the rise of robot industry and the wide application of industrial robots in manufacturing, and how to encourage technological progress to enhance the competitiveness of China's robot industry, so as to occupy a place in the future robot market competition.