Slow down the momentum
On October 27th, 65438, local people's congresses in Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guizhou, Shaanxi and Chongqing were held. In the 20 19 livelihood security plan, many local government work reports mentioned strengthening the construction of affordable housing. According to the previous housing work conference held in various places, in the new year, various places will continue to promote the shantytown renovation plan.
2065438+20081the data released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development on October 22nd showed that 6.26 million shanty towns were renovated nationwide, exceeding the target of 5.8 million last year. At the local level, taking Zhejiang as an example, 292,000 sets of shed reform plans were completed in 20 18, and 406,000 sets were actually started, with a completion rate of 139%.
However, according to the incomplete statistics of analyst 265438+2008 of 20th Century Economic Research Institute, compared with the "rapid development" of 2065438+2008, the goal of shed reform in 2065438+2009 has declined, and the decline is large. Among them, Shanxi decreased from 125200 to 32600; Henan dropped from 500,000 sets to 6,543,800 sets+0,500 sets; Sichuan has reduced from 255,000 sets to 6,543,8+0,500 sets; Beijing also reduced from 23,600 sets to 6.5438+0. 1.500 sets.
According to some media, the target of shed reform in 20 19 will be greatly lowered, and the overall decline may be more than half. In this regard, the comments issued by the Ke Rui Real Estate Research Team pointed out that the overall reduction rate is about 2 1% compared with the planned operating rate in 20 18, which is consistent with the reduction rate of the national shed reform plan.
According to the above article, there are ups and downs between provinces and cities. Among them, six provinces and cities such as Guangxi, Liaoning, Shaanxi and Chongqing plan to start construction in 20 19, and three provinces such as Jiangxi, Hubei and Hebei plan to start construction in 20 19. "The provinces with a large number of sheds in the early stage have staged callbacks, which is in line with objective laws and market expectations. For example, in Henan Province, the actual completion of the shed reform of 20 18 has reached 20 16 1.8 times, and the planned goal of 20 19 is also predictable. "
According to the arrangement of the the State Council executive meeting, the three-year plan for shantytown renovation from 2018 to 2020 has set the goal of shantytown renovation150,000 sets. According to the annual plan, there will be 5.8 million sets in 20 18, and 4.6 million sets in 20 19 and 2020.
Policy tightening
Whether the target is halved or lowered by 2 1%, the shed reform of 20 19 will usher in a policy turning point, and the slowdown will become a major trend.
In June last year, the topic about the direction of the monetization policy of shed reform surfaced. Although a month later, the statement of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development pointed out that the monetization policy of shed reform has not stopped, compared with the previous vigorous advocacy, the policy trend has quietly changed. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has made it clear that it is necessary to promote the monetization of shed reform according to local conditions. For places where the inventory of commercial housing is insufficient and the pressure of rising house prices is high, it is necessary to adjust the shed reform policy in a targeted and timely manner, and adopt more ways of building new sheds to change resettlement houses; Where there is a large inventory of commercial housing, we can continue to promote the monetization of shed reform.
Over the years, the monetary resettlement of shed reform has played a key role in the process of destocking in the local property market. However, unlike 20 17, which emphasized that third-and fourth-tier cities and counties should continue to do a good job of destocking, the national housing work conference held at the end of 20 18 did not mention the relevant contents of destocking.
At the same time, more importantly, according to many media reports, in June 5438+February last year, the 20 19 shed reform plan issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed to cancel the government's purchase of shed reform service model.
In the process of implementing the shed reform scheme in various places, the government's purchase of shed reform mode is the main financing method. The government chooses a powerful platform company and signs a service purchase agreement with it. The platform company is responsible for the specific implementation. The project funds come from special loans for shed reform of policy banks such as China Development Bank and Agricultural Development Bank. This means that the government needs to carry out the project to the end, which will increase the hidden debt risk of local governments to some extent.
Under the background of preventing and controlling major risks, all levels are strictly controlling the debt problem. The above-mentioned 20 19 shed reform plan points out that for newly started shed reform projects, it is not allowed to borrow money in disguise or implement construction projects in the name of government purchasing services, but it is required to issue local government bonds (special bonds for shed reform) as the main financing method.
At the local level, relevant policies have begun to take shape. At the 20 18 housing work conference, the Housing and Construction Department of Jiangxi Province proposed to adjust and improve the monetary resettlement policy, cancel the monetary compensation and reward policies of cities and counties with insufficient commodity inventory and high pressure of rising house prices, and increase the construction of resettlement houses. 20 16, 20 17, Jiangxi province's statement is "to promote the monetized resettlement of shed reform and the government's purchase of services" and "to intensify the transformation of shanty towns and vigorously promote the government's purchase of shed reform services".
Meet market demand
Wei Dongxiang, chief policy analyst of dtz, observed from a market perspective: "The monetization policy of shed reform can really improve people's livelihood to a great extent and help shantytown residents improve their quality of life. However, the real estate market in China has been on the rise since 20 15. In the context of restrictions on purchases in first-and second-tier cities, some hot money also flowed into third-and fourth-tier cities under the guidance of the mentality of the last bus, which pushed up local housing prices, amplified effective demand, and caused housing prices to be higher than the real value. Therefore, the policy adjustment of monetization shed reform has adapted to the current market situation. "
However, based on the consideration of canceling the mode of government purchasing shed reform in 20 19, the collection team in TF Securities estimated that the fund demand for shed reform in 20 19 was about10.3 trillion yuan, and the total of policy bank loans and special debts was 1. 17 trillion yuan. However, after the cancellation of the government purchase service model, it is conservatively estimated that there is still a quota of 600 billion for the special debt for shed reform in 20 19, so there is still a funding gap of nearly 600 billion.
In fact, as the new local debt limit will be issued in advance in 20 19, the local special debt is expected to be further expanded throughout the year. As one of the main types of special debts, the source of funds for shed reform can be guaranteed to a certain extent.
The executive meeting of the State Council held in June 5438+ 10 last year also made it clear that all localities should strictly assess their financial affordability and scientifically determine the task of shed reform in 20 19 years. Maintain the level of central financial subsidies and increase the issuance of special bonds for local shed reform in an orderly manner. Pay close attention to the study and introduction of financial support policies for newly opened shed reform projects.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, believes that the current adjustment of shed reform goals in various places reflects the orientation of one city and one policy. It can be expected that the shed reform policy will be slightly adjusted in many cities where housing prices have risen too fast in 20 18, especially in the capital cities such as northeast, northwest and southwest. Of course, the current new situation is that the National Development and Reform Commission has once again increased its support for rail transit construction. In fact, the shed reform along the rail transit will not be reduced, which is also a new market opportunity under the policy adjustment.