Guo Tianyong, Han nationality, native of Yantai, Shandong Province, graduate department, People's Bank of China, Ph.D. in Economics. He is currently a professor at the School of Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics. In recent years, he has published more than 65,438+000 papers, 6 monographs and presided over and participated in more than 20 research projects. 200 1 won the National Excellent Thesis Award of China Finance Institute, and was supported by the Excellent Young Teachers Fund of Fok Ying Tung Education Foundation in 2004.
Chinese name: Guo Tianyong.
Nationality: China.
Ethnic group: Han nationality
Place of birth: Yantai, Shandong Province
Occupation: teacher
Graduate school: China Renmin University.
Representative works: Theory and Practice of the New Central Bank, and Monetary Banking.
Title: Professor
Character experience
academic degree
65438-0999, Ph.D., graduate department, People's Bank of China;
1996 obtained a master's degree in economics from School of Finance, Renmin University of China;
1990 obtained a bachelor of science degree from the Department of Mathematics of Shandong University.
Business experience
1990 to 1993 worked in Yantai Branch of China People's Bank.
1999 After graduation, he was assigned to teach in the Finance Department of the Central University of Finance and Economics;
Teach a course
Monetary and Banking (Undergraduate), Finance (Postgraduate), Financial Markets (Undergraduate) and International Finance (Undergraduate)
Academic part-time job
Researcher, Financial Policy Research Center, Renmin University of China, China Financial Research Center, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics.
Researcher, China Actuarial Research Institute, Central University of Finance and Economics.
Member of Beijing Economic Committee of Democratic National Construction Association
Member of shanghai securities news Expert Advisory Group.
Special commentator of China Business News and Beijing News
Sina Finance, 2 1 Century Business Herald columnist.
Market view
Real estate loan
The "30% mortgage crisis" shows that the real estate loan field of commercial banks, like the real estate field, needs to seriously rationalize relevant policies and measures. Especially in the current situation that the whole macro-economy is at a low ebb and the real estate market continues to slump, it is necessary to adjust the policies introduced when the economy is overheated. More importantly, financial institutions can be given more innovation space through a series of policy arrangements, and market forces can be fully utilized to regulate their business behavior. With the release of the detailed rules for the implementation of ICBC's stock mortgage policy, the "30% mortgage crisis" that caused an uproar has basically come to an end. Commercial banks, especially several big banks, have been at the forefront since the central bank issued the new real estate loan policy in June 5438+ 10, 2008. This favorable policy, once regarded as the real estate market, was interpreted by several banks as an upset, "offending" real estate developers, leaving a pig in the mirror-not a person inside and outside.
It should be said that as soon as the new central bank mortgage policy was introduced, commercial banks fell into a rather embarrassing situation, which was an out-and-out "prisoner's dilemma". Since the 30% interest rate stipulated by the central bank is only a lower limit policy rather than a mandatory policy, it is understandable that commercial banks are unwilling to discount their books from the perspective of commercial interests. On the one hand, the central bank's repeated interest rate cuts have reduced the comprehensive interest spread of banks and gradually reduced the source of interest income.
In the past two years, with the regulatory authorities relaxing the restrictions on QDII products for banks, their investment scope has expanded to Hong Kong, Singapore, Britain, Japan and the United States. For a time, such products were popular in the market, and investors and commercial banks gave high expectations. However, influenced by the international financial situation, especially the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, and many problems in product design, the performance of QDII products has been declining all the way. Not only that, the "income gate" and "liquidation gate" incidents have also made the aura of such products disappear. In this context, let's objectively review the performance of QDII in the banking department and analyze the deep-seated reasons behind it.
Distribution
In terms of the number of products issued, except for the high number of 70 items issued in 1 month, the number of products issued in other months is at a low level, especially in the last three months, and there is no new product launched in 10, which shows a decreasing trend from the changing trend. There are many reasons why QDII products are cold: as the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis continues to spread around the world, the global capital market continues to fluctuate. Faced with the depressed overseas market and unpredictable future trends, commercial banks are cautious about such wealth management products, which leads to the slow issuance of QDII products.
About interest rate
On June 22, 2008, 10, the central bank issued a notice, announcing that banks can conduct a comprehensive evaluation of buyers, and then expand the lower limit of commercial personal housing loan interest rate to 0.7 times the benchmark loan interest rate; The minimum down payment ratio is adjusted to 20%. This new mortgage policy was interpreted by the market as a major positive for promoting the sales of the property market, and the real estate sector in the A-share market also rose immediately. After more than three months, did the loosening of the mortgage promote the recovery of the property market?
In the face of this policy of the central bank, compared with small and medium-sized commercial banks such as Minsheng and China Merchants, the four major state-owned commercial banks established by workers and peasants are not so active. For most property buyers, they are obviously more willing to choose banks that can offer 30% interest rate, which also makes us have a question. In the past few years, the four major state-owned commercial banks have been taking high-profile actions in the real estate market to seize market share. Why did they seem a little timid before the new mortgage policy and let small and medium-sized banks seize the site?
On February 2, 2009, ICBC exposed the news that the 30% discount on mortgage was postponed, which added a layer of confusing color to the 30% discount on mortgage. Then, why are large state-owned commercial banks not active in giving 30% discount on mortgage loans?
Guo Tianyong, director of the China Banking Research Center of the Central University of Finance and Economics, said: "The contribution of interest to bank profits is relatively large, so after a 30% discount, banks will have relatively large profits."
Private finance
Folk finance has existed for a long time in the history of China. After China entered the period of planned economy system in 1950s, the emergence and development of non-governmental finance had no internal motivation and institutional control, and its scale was insignificant. After the reform and opening up, private finance, which has disappeared for decades, has gradually recovered in the rising economic tide. It began in the vast rural areas, especially in coastal areas such as Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong. According to statistics, since 1986, the scale of rural private lending has exceeded the scale of formal credit, and it has grown steadily at the rate of 19% every year. In the relatively developed southeast coastal areas, between enterprises, especially between private enterprises, the number of direct temporary capital lending or private lending with fixed interest rate higher than that of banks is even more. Nevertheless, for more than a decade, private finance has been outside the framework of national laws and regulations and has struggled to survive in the "gray zone".
Although there is a congenital defect of "unreasonable name", private finance is regarded as banking and other finance.
Bank insurance increased
In order to achieve the goal of maintaining growth and prevent rapid economic decline, a series of measures to stimulate the economy have been introduced, and credit expansion has become an important part of these measures. This has also attracted attention from all sides, and some people are worried about it: if credit expansion becomes a means to stimulate the economy, will it lead to a sharp increase in non-performing loans, which will expose the entire banking industry to great risks and greatly affect the achievements of banking reform?
It should be said that this kind of worry is not unreasonable. The banking industry will become the "main force" to stimulate economic growth in the future and may face greater pressure. This is because, influenced by comprehensive factors at home and abroad, China's economy is facing the most difficult situation since the Asian financial crisis. In the case of weak demand and weak exports in the short term, only investment is the most direct and powerful means to stimulate economic growth in economics. Investment needs funds, and the sources of funds are nothing more than finance, bank credit and private capital. However, due to the lack of foreseeable profit prospects in the short term, the atmosphere of private capital "cash is king, holding money for the winter" is strong, and I am afraid it is wishful thinking to hope that it will invest a lot. Let's look at this part of the fiscal expenditure. First of all, local governments, although after the launch of "4 trillion yuan", local governments have expressed their active cooperation and even made more than a dozen.
Rural finance
The problems of agriculture, rural areas and farmers have always been the core issues of China's economic system reform. Promote rural economic development
Sustainable development, increasing farmers' income, adjusting rural industrial structure and promoting rural urbanization are all inseparable from capital investment and financial support. Therefore, rural financial reform is an important guarantee for the all-round development of rural economy and society in China.
In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, along with the process of economic marketization, China's rural finance has also carried out a series of reforms, which greatly promoted the development of rural economy and finance. 1February, 979, the Agricultural Bank of China officially resumed and became a professional bank in charge of rural finance. 1in August, 1984, the State Council proposed that rural credit cooperatives should be truly turned into mass cooperative financial organizations, and the "three characteristics" should be restored, that is, the organization should be mass, the management should be democratic and the operation should be flexible. During this period, various rural financial institutions, such as National Agricultural Investment Corporation, China Rural Development Trust and Investment Corporation and China Economic Development Trust and Investment Corporation, were established one after another, and the rural financial system was initially rebuilt and diversified.
achievements in scientific research
Some documents
A study on the connotation of the ultimate goal of China's monetary policy, Financial Research No.7, 200 1.
"Asset Price, Inflation and the Improvement of China's Monetary Policy System", Financial Research,No. 10, 2006 (this article was reprinted by Finance and Insurance, No.2, 2007), "International Comparison and Reference of SME Financing", International Financial Research,No./kloc-0, 2003.
China Bill Market Research, Investment Research,No. 12, 2004.
"The Course of Financial Reform in China: 1978~2007", Reform, No.3, 2007.
On the Property Right Reform of Rural Credit Cooperatives, Guangming Daily, 2003.9.6438+06.
"Analysis on the Effectiveness of the Bank of China's Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market", International Finance Research, July 2006.
The Regulation and Development of Private Equity Fund, Guangming Daily, 200 1, August 14, theoretical edition.
"Anti-money laundering: An Important Task of Financial Industry", Guangming Daily (Theoretical Edition), 2004+0438+0. 17.
Reflections on the Revision of China, Journal of the Central University of Finance and Economics, No.5, 2005 (this article is reproduced in full by Investment and Securities, No.0/kloc-0, 2005, copied by the National People's Congress).
Building a Perfect Financial System and Preventing and Resolving Financial Risks, Journal of Central University of Finance and Economics, No.5, 200 1.
Research on "Incubator+Venture Capital" Mode for Promoting the Development of China's High-tech Industry, Journal of Central University of Finance and Economics,No.1/,2006.
"Reflections on Some Problems in China Bond Market", Monetary and Financial Review, No.5, 2004.
On the Choice of China's Current Monetary Policy Operation Target, selected as the paper of the 200 1 academic annual meeting of China Finance Association.
"Why do you like the new and hate the old in developing financial markets", Economics, No.3, 2006 (this article is reproduced in the full text of Investment and Securities, No.6, 2006, copied by the National People's Congress)
Discussion on the Realization of State-owned Financial Capital Investors, China Economic Times, August 29, 2005 (this article was reprinted by Financial Information Reference,No. 10, 2005).
"The financing subjects of short-term financing bonds expect diversification", china securities journal, April 2006 14 (this article was reprinted by China Urban and Rural Finance News on April 24, 2006).
Policy Effect of Interest Rate Raising and Improvement of Monetary Policy System, China Business News, 2006.5. 10 (this article was reprinted by Financial Expo, No.6, 2006).
"Empirical Analysis of Relationship Lending and SME Financing", Financial Forum, No.4, 2006.
Facing the crisis of securities firms, Rural Finance Research,No. 1 1, 2005.
"The Future of China Bond Market", Rural Finance Research, No.3, 2004.
"The Path Choice of China's Financial Industry Reform in the Post-transition Period", China Business News, 2005.438+02.23.
Reform of Agricultural Bank of China-Make a decision before moving, China Business News, 2006+0. 12 (this article was reprinted by Farmers Daily on February 5, 2006).
"How does the banking industry solve the liquidity dilemma", China Business News, February 8, 2006.
Promoting regional economic development with financial leverage, People's Political Consultative Conference newspaper, 2006.2. 10, Agricultural Bank of China's reform takes province as the best, China Business News, 2006.3.22.
"Financial derivatives exchange should not be the product of avoiding contradictions", China Business News, June 27, 2006.
"Investigation Report on Financing Problems of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in Transitional Economy", Financial Times, July 2005 1 1.
Agricultural Bank of China Reform: Shifting the Focus of Management is the Key, 265438+20th Century Business Herald, May 29, 2006.
"It is better to raise the nominal exchange rate than to raise real wages", China Business News, July 27, 2006 (this article was reprinted in Life News on July 29, 2006).
"Fully Open Banking Competition Rules", China Forum Today, No.3, 2007.
American deposit insurance system and its enlightenment to China, Financial Electronic News, No.9, 2006.
How China Commercial Banks Expand Private Banking, West,No. 1 2007.
How Banks Become Qualified Overseas Financial Services Agents, West, No.9, 2006.
"Banking liberalization is not blind liberalization", People's Daily (overseas edition), 2006-1-29.
"Require local registration of foreign banks to reflect the principle of national treatment", Nanfang Daily, 2006-1-13.
"Thinking and Prospect of the Reform of State-owned Commercial Banks in China", China Review, No.8, 2006.
"Financial System and Financial Risks", Proceedings of the Asia-Pacific Financial Center Forum, June 2000 165438+ 10.
"The Scenery of Online Banking is Unlimited", Chinese and Foreign Entrepreneurs,No. 1 1, 2000.
Analysis of Asset Securitization in China, Inner Mongolia Finance, No.8, 200 1.
The Development and Standardization of Online Banking, China Finance News, August 9, 2006, 5438+0.
Overall Framework Design of Rural Credit Cooperatives Reform, China Economic Times, May 2003.13.
Current Economic and Financial Situation and Macro-financial Regulation, Rural Finance Research 1998No.1/issue.
"Macro-control should establish a medium-and long-term concept", Rural Finance Research,No. 1999,No. 1.
"On the Orientation of China's Macro Financial Policy", Beijing Finance,No. 1, 0999.
Actively developing the money market and improving the operational efficiency of monetary policy, shanghai securities news 65438+May 2 1, 0999.
International Coordination and Cooperation of Monetary Policy in the Situation of Economic and Financial Globalization, Rural Finance in Hebei,No. 1, 2000.
"Internal Control —— the Weakness of China Banking", Banker, No.6, 2002.
"Foreign currency interbank lending has a great influence", china securities journal, June 24, 2002.
Monographs and edited textbooks
The Choice of Monetary Policy System in China, published by China Financial Publishing House in April 2006.
Game Research on Rural Financial Market in China under Open Economy, published by Economic Science Press on June 5-438+ 10, 2006.
Credit Risk Management of Rural Cooperative Banks, published by China Financial Publishing House in June 2004.
Theory and Practice of the New Central Bank, published by China Market Press in August 2005.
Comprehensive Management and Supervision of Banking Industry in China, published by Commercial Press in June 2002.
Twenty years of financial system reform in China, Zhongzhou Ancient Books Publishing House199865438+February.
Course of Financial Supervision, published by China Financial Publishing House in February 2004.
Money and Banking, published by China Finance Press in June 2005.