Panorama of electric vehicle industry
Electric vehicle refers to a vehicle that is powered by on-board power supply and driven by motor and meets the requirements of road traffic and safety regulations.
Different from the traditional automobile industry chain, the most important component in the middle reaches of the electric vehicle industry chain is the power battery. Therefore, cobalt, nickel, lithium and other mineral resources, as important raw materials for power batteries, constitute the upstream of the industrial chain of electric vehicles;
From the point of view of the downstream vehicle manufacturing of electric vehicles, different from the traditional automobile industry, the vehicle manufacturers of electric vehicles can adopt external batteries, electronic controls and motors, and do not need to master the core technologies such as engines, chassis and gearboxes like traditional vehicle manufacturers, which greatly reduces the entry threshold for the vehicle manufacturing of electric vehicles; In the aftermarket of electric vehicles, service providers such as charging piles and power exchange stations occupy a more important position.
As the largest branch of new energy vehicles, electric vehicles are easily mistaken for new energy vehicles as electric vehicles. In fact, their coverage areas are different, but there are also overlapping parts.
New energy vehicles refer to vehicles powered by unconventional vehicle fuels other than gasoline and diesel engines, including pure electric vehicles, extended-range electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, fuel cell electric vehicles, hydrogen engine vehicles and other new energy vehicles.
Electric vehicles generally use high-efficiency rechargeable batteries or fuel cells as power sources. According to different power sources, domestic mainstream electric vehicles can be divided into three categories: pure electric vehicles (BEV), hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and fuel cell vehicles (FCEV). Due to the limitation of technology and supporting facilities, the three mainstream electric vehicles have their own advantages and disadvantages.
Energy substitution and environmental pressure provide opportunities for the development of electric vehicles.
From February 20 19 to September 2020, according to the oil import dependence published by China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, China's oil import dependence showed an upward trend. According to the data released by the Petroleum Economic and Technical Research Institute, the external dependence of China crude oil in 20 19 exceeded 70%, far exceeding the international warning line of 50%.
China's high dependence on foreign oil has seriously affected China's energy security. The development of alternative energy sources such as electric energy and hydrogen energy has been promoted to the national strategic level. Facing the current severe energy environment, China must reduce its dependence on oil, and it is very important to develop new energy industries such as electric vehicles.
Traditional motor vehicles will emit a lot of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, fine particles and sulfides during operation, causing air pollution. At the same time, these primary pollutants will also generate secondary pollutants such as photochemical smog and acid precipitation through atmospheric chemical reactions. Automobile exhaust has a series of adverse effects on urban atmospheric environment, human health and ecosystem.
According to the statistical data of China Mobile Source Environmental Management Annual Report (2020), in 20 19, the total emission of four pollutants from motor vehicles in China was160.38 million tons. Among them, carbon monoxide (CO) is 7710.6 million tons, hydrocarbons (HC)10.892 million tons, nitrogen oxides (nitrogen oxides) are 6.356 million tons, and particulate matter (PM) is 74,000 tons.
Compared with the pollution problem of fuel vehicles, electric vehicles have no exhaust gas produced by diesel locomotives and no tail gas pollution, which is very beneficial to environmental protection and air cleaning, and is almost "zero pollution". Even if the hybrid electric vehicle is zero pollution in the pure electric state, it is undeniable that there are still emissions when the internal combustion engine is turned on. Therefore, with the improvement of the country's emphasis on environmental protection, the electric vehicle industry will usher in a good development opportunity.
Technology continues to mature, and the performance of electric vehicles continues to improve.
The most critical technology in electric vehicles is the "three electric" system of electric vehicles, which replaces the internal combustion engine and transmission of traditional fuel vehicles, that is, the battery, motor and electronic control system of electric vehicles. In recent years, China's electric vehicle technology has developed rapidly, in which battery technology has entered the first echelon in the world. Technological progress has promoted the continuous improvement of electric vehicle performance, and the performance of domestic electric vehicles has gradually caught up with foreign electric vehicle brands.
The amount of possession continues to increase, and the production and sales are improving for a long time.
After the rapid development in recent years, electric vehicles in China have entered the growth stage from the embryonic stage. Driven by China's pure electric drive strategy, the proportion of pure electric vehicles in China is relatively large. According to the data released by the Ministry of Public Security, in 20 19 years, the number of new energy vehicles in China was 38 1 10,000, of which pure electric vehicles reached 3 1 10,000. Accounting for 8 1.4%. It is predicted that the number of new energy vehicles in China will reach about 565,438+million in 2020, among which the number of pure electric vehicles will reach about 465,438+million.
Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, the production and sales of electric vehicles in China dropped sharply in the first half of 2020. According to the data released by China Automobile Association, the total output of electric vehicles in China in the first half of 2020 was 369,000, and the total sales volume was 37 1.7 million. However, it is worth noting that since the epidemic was gradually controlled in March, the production and sales of electric vehicles in China have gradually recovered. In July 2020, the production and sales of electric vehicles in China ushered in the first year-on-year growth since 2020. Thanks to the government's support for the consumption of new energy vehicles and the strong measures of enterprises, it is expected that the production and sales of electric vehicles in China will gradually recover in 2020.
Challenges and opportunities coexist in the development of electric vehicles in the post-subsidy era.
At present, China's electric vehicles are in the early stage of development and are greatly influenced by policies. In recent years, the state has issued a series of policies to guide and promote the development of China's electric vehicle industry. In June, 2020, 1 1-2035, the State Council issued the Development Plan of New Energy Automobile Industry, proposing that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 20% of the total sales of new vehicles by 2025. By 2035, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles, vehicles in public areas will be fully electrified, fuel cell vehicles will be commercialized, and highly self-driving vehicles will be widely used, effectively promoting energy conservation and emission reduction and improving social operation efficiency. According to the planning requirements, it is expected that China's new energy automobile industry will usher in rapid development. At the same time, as the main driving force of the new energy automobile market, electric vehicles have a large room for growth.
So far, China's electric vehicle industry has been completely driven by policy, and gradually transformed into a dual drive of policy and market. It is worth noting that in recent years, the state subsidies for electric vehicles have been declining, and the technical requirements for subsidies have been continuously improved, which has put forward new requirements for electric vehicle enterprises. The change of subsidy policy has led car companies to strengthen technology research and development and expand their scale to reduce production costs, which is conducive to the survival of the fittest in the electric vehicle industry.
Domestic automobile brands have developed rapidly
From the perspective of new energy vehicle brands, major manufacturers are competing with each other, and Tesla in the United States has become the most popular new energy passenger car in the global market.
It is worth noting that the brand of electric vehicles in China will develop rapidly in 2020. Among them, BYD has gained a good reputation in the high-end electric vehicle market. Since its listing in Wu Hongguang, Shang Tong, its sales volume has been rising continuously, and it has taken a leading position in the economic vehicle market. According to the monthly sales data of 165438+ 10, Hong Guang MINI EV sold 28246 vehicles in the ranking of new energy vehicle sales -EV sales in 2020165438+/0/0, ranking first.
Model 3 ranked second with sales of 265,438+0,604 vehicles, and this year's cumulative sales reached 65,438+0,654,38+0,645 vehicles. 165438+ 10 In the month of October, the sales volume of Euler Black Cat was 9,463, ranking third, while the sales volume of BYD Han EV and Qin EV ranked fourth and eighth.
The rapid development of electric vehicles has attracted many new forces to build cars. Judging from the sales situation of the new car-making forces, according to the data released by the Federation, in 2020, Li ONE sold 26,498 vehicles, ranking first, Weilai ES6 sold 25,468 vehicles, ranking second, and Weimar EX5 sold 65,438 vehicles.
Multi-party capital layout investment decision-making is becoming more and more rational.
In recent years, China's favorable policies for electric vehicles are frequent, and industry investment is booming. Both social capital, state-owned capital and internet giants have started to invest in the electric vehicle industry. It is worth noting that since 20 19, the number of investments in the industry has decreased, but the amount of investment has increased. On the one hand, it shows that the investment direction of the industry is biased towards mature and high-quality enterprises, and enterprises with weak competitiveness will be gradually eliminated because of lack of financial support.
Forward-looking point of view: the era of great development of electric vehicles has arrived.
Everything is basically ready for the promotion of electric vehicles in China. With the gradual introduction of local subsidy policy, we have reason to believe that the era of great development of electric vehicles has arrived. However, judging from the market data and reality in the past two years, electric vehicles are suffering from the embarrassment of "more thunder and less rain". Although the policy is very hot, the market reaction is very cold. Poor supporting facilities, consumers' concerns about battery life and the trouble of charging for a long time still hinder the further maturity of the electric vehicle market.
With the continuous improvement of supporting facilities for electric vehicles in China, the performance of electric vehicles will continue to improve, and the scale of China's electric vehicle industry is expected to grow rapidly. It is estimated that by 2026, the sales of electric vehicles in China will reach 6.2 million.
—— The above data and analysis are all from Foresight Industry Research Institute's Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report of China Electric Vehicle Industry.