An unfavorable start has become synonymous with the automobile market at the beginning of the year. The data shows that the automobile consumption index of 5438+ 10 in 2020 is only 27.5. China automobile dealers association said that the epidemic delayed the resumption of work in various regions, and the per capita disposable income declined, which inhibited automobile consumption, and the decline in purchasing power directly led to the decline in automobile sales.
According to the data released by the Passenger Car Federation, the sales volume of narrow passenger cars in China in June was 1.699 million, down 2 1.5% year-on-year and 20.8% month-on-month. According to the Federation, no matter from the year-on-year comparison, this is the lowest growth rate recorded since the statistics of retail sales in 2005.
When the epidemic will end is still unknown, but what we can know is that this year's auto market situation will be unprecedentedly bleak. In this "war epidemic" without smoke, it is far from enough to rely on car companies to save themselves. This market is waiting for "policy makers" to come up with "policy medicine" to save the market.
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All creatures in the industry
"The impact of the epidemic on the auto market will be mainly concentrated in February and March. In February, car sales will drop precipitously, and it is estimated that only 30% or even lower of the target volume can be achieved. The subsequent impact depends on whether the epidemic can be controlled as soon as possible. " Lang, Deputy Secretary-General of china automobile dealers association, analyzed the automobile market under the epidemic situation.
As a result, car sales collapsed in the first quarter, and the industry expects that it will pick up slightly in the second quarter of this year and return to normal in the third quarter. However, when it picks up, it will be more cruel competition waiting for car companies. As we all know, the second quarter is an important window for car companies to achieve their goals in the first half of the year. By then, industry competition will intensify into a high probability event.
At the same time, the upstream and downstream parts suppliers and automobile dealers in the automobile industry are also suffering from great impact. Bosch, the world's largest supplier of auto parts, warned that novel coronavirus may affect its global supply chain, which faces the risk of breakage. Among the top 20 auto parts suppliers in the world, half of Bosch, Valeo and ZF have settled in Wuhan. As the hardest hit area, Wuhan can't even start work, which has a great impact on it.
The delivery of spare parts is a problem, which will have a strong impact on the production of the main engine plant. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of China Automobile Industry Association, said that there are many parts supporting enterprises in Hubei, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other areas with high epidemic rates, and they are supporting them all over the country. He pointed out that the automobile industry chain is very long, and the transmission effect is obvious. In the short term, the supply of parts will restrict the production rhythm of the whole vehicle.
A while ago, a distress letter from Beijing Benz "stop production and lose 400 million yuan a day" was popular on the Internet, which is also a microcosm of the overall car companies. In addition to Beijing Benz, Beijing Hyundai, Toyota, Tesla and other car companies are all suffering from "unbearable weight".
Dealers downstream of the industry are also having a hard time. Affected by the epidemic, large automobile sales groups such as Guanghui, Yongda and Hengxin all announced their closure. Under the pressure of economic and safety awareness, consumers have repeatedly shelved their car purchase plans.
Occasionally, this also makes dealers troubled by "high inventory". VIA, the latest survey of inventory early warning index of automobile dealers in China released by china automobile dealers association, shows that the inventory early warning index of automobile dealers in June 2020 was 62.7%, up 6.3 percentage points from the previous month and 6.5 percentage points from the same period last year. This is also the seventh consecutive month that dealer inventory is above the warning line.
What is more terrible than "high inventory" is the lack of cash flow. During the epidemic period, the capital flow of dealers is "more outflow and less inflow", and most dealers' liquidity can only support their two-month operation time. If the epidemic is not controlled, a large number of dealers will face the problem of lack of funds.
In such a big environment, car companies have launched a series of self-help strategies. In addition to introducing measures such as no assessment or lowering assessment targets in February, they also launched a "hematopoietic initiative" to sell cars online. However, buying a car in the store is a big melody, and selling cars online has not changed substantially.
The failure of car companies to save themselves has also led to the growing voice of the industry asking the government to introduce support policies.
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How to save the market?
As an intermediate link between automobile manufacturing and social consumption, automobile circulation industry will have an impact on the economic goals and employment stability of the whole society once systematic risks appear. It is difficult for consumers to start under the epidemic. Under such circumstances, the emergency measures of car companies are far from enough. At this time, policy support is even more needed to solve the urgent need.
Recently, in Qiushi magazine, the country's top leader revealed: "We should actively stabilize traditional mass consumption such as automobiles, encourage areas where automobile purchases are restricted to appropriately increase the number of automobile license plates, and drive the consumption of automobiles and related products."
At the same time, Foshan became the first city in China to encourage automobile consumption. According to the Notice of the Office of Foshan Municipal People's Government on Printing and Distributing Some Measures to Upgrade the Consumption of Foshan's Automobile Market (Trial), Foshan encourages the consumption of "National Six" standard cars, and the financial subsidy for each car ranges from 2,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan. This measure will be implemented on March 1 day, and will be valid for one year.
However, in the eyes of the industry, increasing the license plate number and encouraging consumption in Foshan are measures that "can't hydrolyze the thirst far away". Judging from the current time node, it takes a certain implementation period to improve the license plate number quota; Consumers can't build cars behind closed doors, and there is no way to encourage consumption at present. Neither of these measures can help to open the market terminal consumption in time.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Federation, said: "Only when there are prospects and opportunities for the development of the industrial chain can all kinds of enterprises in the industrial chain accelerate the resumption of production. Therefore, it is necessary to take sales as the leading factor and open up the whole chain of consumer demand so that the whole industry can develop faster." Professor Tsinghua University and Chen Quanshi, director of Tsinghua University Automobile Research Institute, also agree that enterprises' burden reduction will be optimized in automobile production, but the final assessment of automobile market is consumption.
In this regard, china automobile dealers association put forward a number of suggestions to the government authorities to provide phased policy support to automobile dealers during the epidemic prevention and control period, including: calling for strengthening the supervision of financial institutions that provide policy protection to trapped enterprises, providing convenient debt extension approval for automobile circulation enterprises, increasing credit lines, speeding up loan efficiency, reducing financing costs, reducing overdue penalty interest under special circumstances, and protecting credit information.
On the consumer side, Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, also put forward his own opinion: "The fastest way to stimulate the automobile market is to stimulate consumption, such as reducing the extra taxes and fees for consumers to buy cars, simplifying the procedures for consumers to buy cars, and quickly introducing some low-interest and long-term financial policies when consumers have insufficient purchasing power, and quickly opening up the consumer side."
To sum up, in the automobile market where the epidemic is raging, the short-term policy that can quickly reduce the burden on enterprises and get through the terminal consumption is the favorable policy that can solve the urgent needs of the automobile industry.
Summary:
Under the ravages of the epidemic, the suspension of production, production and supply has triggered a series of "butterfly effects" in the automobile market, and survival has once again become the main goal of the automobile market in 2020. However, many car companies are powerless now, and only with the help of the government can they lead them out of the epidemic.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.