Sometimes I have to feel that illusion has never been an obstacle to people's pursuit of truth, but preconceptions are.
one
Remember one person, no, technically it should be two.
The first person is Zhuge Liang. Zhuge Liang has his uniqueness in employing people, but how can he walk by the river without wet shoes? Zhuge Liang sometimes makes mistakes, such as Ma Su.
Zhuge Liang and Ma Su's younger brother Ma Liang are good friends. Later, he was killed in the battle of Yiling, and Zhuge Liang preferred the Ma family. At this time, Masu appeared.
Zhuge Liang is a cautious man. Actually, he has visited Masu privately. For example, when chatting, Masu once said: Use the method of fighting, attack the heart for the top, and attack the city for the bottom. Psychological warfare is the best, military warfare is the best.
This sentence made Zhuge Liang conclude that Ma Su was a general.
But in fact, Liu Bei knew Zhuge Liang's thoughtfulness and Ma Su's weight, because Liu Beigang used Ma Su as a shepherd when he was in Jingzhou, but it was obvious that Ma Su's performance was not good, so Liu Bei reminded Zhuge Liang that Ma Su was exaggerating and could not be reused.
Zhuge Liang has always respected Liu Bei and rarely disobeyed him, but in the matter of appointing Ma Su, he pushed his way through the crowd and enabled Ma Su. His reason is easy to understand Ma Su took root in Hong Miao after being loyal and good; Ma Su knows the battle and is determined to win. Such talents can't be found with lanterns.
Under the embellishment of relationship, Zhuge Liang looks at Ma Su, just like the phrase "mother-in-law looks at son-in-law-the more she looks, the happier she is, the more she looks, the more pleasing she is".
"Masu, you can do it. Do it. "
two
In the sixth year of lite, Zhuge Liang started the northern expedition to Wei from Qishan and appointed Ma Su as the pioneer. Obviously, Zhuge Liang deliberately gave Ma Su the chance to play the leading role. For example, Wei Yan, who has fought many battles, can only play a supporting role. At that time, Zhang He, a famous scholar of Wei, led an army to meet Ma Su in the street pavilion.
After Ma Su led the army to the street pavilion, he frowned and took it to heart, so he stationed the team halfway up the mountain far from the water without authorization. Wang Ping, the lieutenant, suggested that "there is no water source in the street pavilion, and the route for providing foodstuff is impassable. If Wei Jun besieges the street kiosks, if we cut off the water supply, we will naturally be devastated. ".
Masu retorted: Even the Prime Minister once asked me for advice. Do you think it's strange? Then he said, "This is the common sense of military strategists and our way to win."
What is the result? The plot is not what Masu thought. Zhang He sent troops to besiege the Shu army and then cut off water. As a result, Masu lost the street pavilion.
In fact, since Ma Su lost his street pavilion, Zhuge Liang has lost the strength to crusade against Wei Jun, so who can blame it?
Zhuge Liang preconceived that Ma Su was a honest man. Seeing that he had a glib tongue, he entrusted him with an important task. Actually, Zhuge Liang didn't know much about Ma Su.
Masu also lived up to expectations. He didn't understand the specific situation of Wei Jun, and took it for granted that he was "directing sweeping the floor". His dream is beautiful, but he is also naive.
From this, we can see that people will be wrong if they are preconceived, and things will be wrong if they are preconceived.
three
Some friends will ask, what should I do? Are there any positive cases of realistic themes? Of course there is.
Su Hua, the founder of Aauto quickless, said when talking about the origin of Aauto quickless: "We are very concerned about the feelings of all people, including the neglected majority."
Isn't it incredible? Shouldn't a few be ignored? Don't worry, let's look down. Su Hua went on to say: "According to statistics, in 20 18 years, the population with college education or above accounted for 13% of the total population, and 87% of them had no higher education. Therefore, we have made more choices so that 87% of people can better express and be concerned. "
Now do you understand why Aauto Quicker is full of local videos? Because Aauto Quicker was originally prepared for those 87% college graduates. Don't rush to criticize. In fact, when A Xin saw the proportion of higher education, I didn't believe it either, but it was a fact. The proportion of higher education is easy to calculate. Divide the data of Xuexin.com by the total population, which is close to the real data.
The data is irrefutable, how to refute it? So Su Hua was actually right. In the early days, the mobile Internet was really a patent for young people and users of higher education. In fact, a man named Huang Zheng later founded Pinduoduo, which was actually based on this data.
Besides, many people are waving flags and shouting that the era of short video is coming. In addition to technical upgrading, there is another reason: among 87% users, many people can't even use Chinese Pinyin, so video shooting is the most convenient method.
Through data analysis, Su Hua of Aauto Quicker and Huang Zheng of Pinduoduo made exclusive products specifically for "sinking market". Don't think these two people are old-fashioned. In fact, Su Hua graduated from Tsinghua University, and Huang Zheng graduated from Zhejiang University, both of which are top universities, and both of them work at Google.
What is the most important thing for Internet companies? It is data, cloud data, and big data. If a person is preconceived without data analysis, whether it is Ma Su or even Zhuge Liang, the result can be imagined.
Behavior based on valid data can be called scientific behavior.
four
In fact, there was an ancient man who paid great attention to data and was extremely disgusted with preconceptions. Yes, you guessed right. This man is guiguzi. In the contention of a hundred schools of thought, Guiguzi pioneered the concept of the importance of numbers and data, which is called power measurement.
Why measure power? Guiguzi said: the weight is not judged, and many people call it strength; I don't know how to hide the change if I don't judge the situation. If you can't seriously understand each other's specific data, you can't understand the strength of others; If we can't accurately guess the real situation of others, we can't understand their concealment, hiding, coping strategies and the trend of the situation.
So what is the right to measure? Is to guess the size and see how much. Measure the strength of each other's economic strength, predict the number of people, the abundance and shortage of materials, and the specific situation of surplus and deficiency. It is easy to identify each other's geographical location. Measure the pros and cons of the other counselor. The closeness of the relationship between monarch and minister. The wisdom of another consultant. Is it good or bad luck to observe the weather? This is not over.
You also need to know each other's social and diplomatic relations, and whether the people deviate or love. Whoever can use it and knows the truth needs to grasp it accurately before he knows how to act, and then he can assess the situation and weigh the advantages and disadvantages. This is called force measurement. (Original: What is the right of quantity? He said, "Look for a few by size. Whether the goods are available, how many people are expected, and how many are left? Distinguish the advantages and disadvantages of terrain risk? Which is longer or shorter? Who is virtuous and who does not deserve it? Which is less and more knowledgeable with the guests? Looking at the fortune of the weather, which is better or worse? What are the uses and disadvantages of relatives? When people's minds change, which ones are safe and which ones are dangerous? Which is better or worse? Who knows the opposite? In this case, it is the right of quantity. " )