1936, his masterpiece "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" was published, and Keynes's other two important works on economic theory were "Essays on Monetary Reform (1923)" and "Monetary Theory".
He is famous for initiating the "Keynesian Revolution" in economics and is called "the father of total economics" by later generations.
Basic introduction Chinese name: mbth, john maynard keynes: john maynard keynes nationality: British nationality: British birthplace: Cambridge, England Date of birth:1June 5, 883 (last year) Date of death: 65438+April 265438+0,0946 (Xu Bingnian). Occupation: Economist and Logician Graduate School: King's College, Cambridge University. Main achievements: The representative works of total economics and modern inductive logic were founded: General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Indian Money and Finance, and On Probability. Life, main achievements, leading theory, main content, basic theory, state intervention, main works, family members, anecdotes of characters, social evaluation, commemoration of future generations, the character was born in Cambridge, England on June 5, 1883. /kloc-at the age of 0/4, he entered Eton College with a scholarship to major in mathematics and won the Tomlin Prize. After graduation, he entered King's College of Cambridge University with scholarships in mathematics and classical literature. 1905, Master of Arts, Cambridge. After that, I stayed in Cambridge for a year, studied economics under Marshall and Pigou, and prepared to take the British civil service exam. John maynard keynes 1906 passed the civil service examination with the second place and was elected to the Indian Ministry of Affairs. During his tenure, he did a lot of research and preparation for his first economics book, Indian Money and Finance (19 13). 1908 resigned from the Indian affairs department and returned to Cambridge as an economics lecturer until 19 15. In the meantime, 1909 was selected as an academician of King's College, Cambridge with a paper on probability theory, and another paper on index won the Adam Smith Prize. A little supplement, the paper on probability is published in 192 1, and the title is "Probability Theory Probability". Shortly after the outbreak of World War I, he was recruited into the British Treasury to take charge of foreign financial affairs such as foreign exchange control and American loans. 19 19 At the beginning of this year, he attended the Paris Peace Conference as the chief representative of the British Treasury. In June of the same year, he resigned as a representative of the Peace Conference and returned to teach at Cambridge University because he was indignant at the suggestion of the Compensation Committee on Germany's defeat compensation and its border. Soon, the book Economic Consequences (19 19) was published, which caused great controversy among people from all walks of life in Europe, Britain and the United States, and made him once the core figure of European economic recovery. When I was teaching, I wrote many articles on economics. During Keynes 192 1~ 1938' s tenure as the chairman of American National Mutual Life Insurance Company, his annual report to shareholders has always been a must-read and the first news to be heard by the financial community. From 65438 to 0940, he served as an adviser to the Ministry of Finance and participated in the decision-making of various financial and financial issues during wartime. At his initiative, Britain began to compile national income statistics, which provided the necessary tools for formulating national economic policies. Because of his profound academic attainments, he served as editor-in-chief of the Journal of Economics and president of the Royal Economic Society for a long time./kloc-0 was elected as an academician of the British Academy of Sciences in 1929, and/kloc-0 was promoted to Lord in 1942. In July, he led a British delegation to attend the Bretton Woods Conference and became a British director of the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank). 1946 Cambridge University awarded him a doctor of science degree. 1April 2, 9461day, he died of a heart attack at his home in Sussex. Keynes (1883- 1946) was originally a free trader. Until the end of the 1920s, he still believed in the traditional theory of free trade and thought that protectionism was not desirable for domestic economic prosperity and employment growth. Even in 1929, when arguing with Swedish economist Olin about German reparations, he insisted that the balance of payments would automatically restore balance through changes in domestic and international price levels. When Keynes's representative work "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" (hereinafter referred to as "General Theory") was published in 1936, Keynes turned to emphasize the influence of trade balance on national income, believing that if the protection policy can bring about a trade surplus, it will certainly help to improve the investment level, expand employment and eventually lead to economic prosperity. Keynes believed that the traditional trade theory was based on the premise that all factors of production, including labor, were fully employed, and advocated that trade according to the principle of comparative cost could not only be fully employed, but also enjoy the benefits brought by division of labor. However, this premise does not exist in real life, but there are often a lot of involuntary unemployment. If a country conducts free trade according to the traditional theory, although it can engage in specialized production in departments with comparative advantages and gain some benefits from the division of labor, it will be more serious if it abandons or narrows the peace of departments with little or incomparable comparative advantages. Therefore, Keynes flatly protested that the traditional trade theory was not applicable to modern capitalism. He also criticized that the traditional theory only pays attention to the interests of division of labor, emphasizes the automatic adjustment process of external balance of payments, and completely ignores the impact of trade balance on national income and employment. As far as a country is concerned, the latter is more important than the former, because surplus can increase income, make capital inflow, lower interest rates, increase investment and expand employment; On the contrary, "if it is a deficit, it may soon produce a stubborn economic recession." Because of john maynard keynes's cartoon, Keynes agreed with the trade surplus and praised mercantilism again, saying that "mercantilism contains the real elements of admission." However, while affirming some viewpoints of mercantilism, he also admitted that "the benefits of implementing mercantilism are limited to one country and will not benefit the whole world". In the General Theory, Keynes further expounded the relationship between the trade balance and the rise and fall of the national economy based on the principle of investment multiplier. He believes that the multiplier effect of investment is that the new investment in one department will not only increase the income of the department, but also cause the income of other relevant departments to increase through the chain reaction, and will cause other relevant departments to increase new investment through the chain reaction to obtain new income, thus leading to the growth of gross national income several times that of the initial investment. The total investment of a country includes both domestic investment (depending on the marginal efficiency and interest rate of domestic capital) and foreign investment (depending on the trade surplus). "Increasing the surplus is the only direct way for * * * to increase foreign investment; At the same time, if the trade is in surplus, precious metals will flow in, so lowering domestic interest rates and increasing domestic investment incentives are the only indirect ways. " In addition, Keynes also stressed that the trade surplus itself has the same effect on the national economy as investment. It is believed that export is the demand for the country's products, and like investment, it is an "injection" that can increase national income. On the other hand, import is an increase in the consumption of imported goods. Like savings, it is a kind of leakage, which will weaken the role of investment multiplier and reduce national income. Therefore, Keynes strongly advocated the trade surplus, proposed to expand exports as much as possible, and at the same time restricted imports by protecting tariffs and encouraging "buying British goods". The above Keynesian analysis of multiplier theory and trade surplus was later proved by British scholar Harold and American scholar Mahlop, and developed into foreign trade multiplier theory. In addition to The General Theory, Keynes's other two important works on economic theory are The Theory of Monetary Reform (1923) and The Theory of Money (1930). These two works are his representative works on monetary theory, but they can't get rid of the classical model of monetary quantity theory. The leading theory of major achievements Keynes's previous leading economic theory was the laissez-faire economic theory of neoclassical school represented by Marshall, also known as traditional economics. This theory is based on the five principles of "free market, free operation, free competition, automatic adjustment and automatic equilibrium", and its core is the "automatic equilibrium" theory. It is believed that under the condition of free competition, the economy can automatically reach equilibrium through the price mechanism; The fluctuation of commodity prices can balance the supply and demand of commodities; The price of funds-the change of interest rate can make savings and investment tend to balance; The price of labor-the rise and fall of wages can balance the supply and demand of the labor market and realize full employment. Therefore, all human intervention, especially * * * intervention, is redundant, and * * * is the easiest to manage regardless of anything. We should abide by the economic principles of free competition, self-regulation and laissez-faire. * * *, intervention in the economy will only destroy this self-regulation mechanism, but will cause economic turmoil or imbalance. The main content of john maynard keynes Keynes is one of the most influential figures in economics. Keynes made great contributions to economics all his life, and was once known as "the savior" and "the father of post-war prosperity". Keynes was born in the era when Usai's law was regarded as a deity, and agreed that the economy could be maintained by full employment automatically with the help of market supply and demand forces, so he has been devoted to the study of monetary theory. His main work "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" was published in 1936, which caused a revolution in economics. This book has a far-reaching impact on people's views on the role of economic and political power in social life. Keynes put forward a general theory about the level of production and employment. Its revolutionary theory is mainly about the equilibrium under the condition of involuntary unemployment: when the effective demand is at a certain level, unemployment is possible. Contrary to the classical economics school, he believes that a simple price mechanism cannot solve the unemployment problem. By introducing instability and expectation, a monetary theory based on liquidity preference tendency is established: the introduction of the concept of marginal effect of investment overturns Say's law and the causal relationship between deposit and investment. The theoretical system of Keynesianism centers on solving the employment problem, and the logical starting point of employment theory is the principle of effective demand. Its basic point of view is that the employment of society depends on effective demand, and the so-called effective demand refers to the total demand when the total supply price and total demand price of goods reach equilibrium. When the total demand price is greater than the total supply price, the social demand for goods exceeds the supply of goods, and capitalists will hire more people and expand production; On the other hand, when the total demand price is less than the total supply price, there will be oversupply. Capitalists are either forced to sell goods at reduced prices, or some goods are unsalable, and they have to lay off employees and shrink production because they cannot achieve the minimum profit. So the number of jobs depends on the equilibrium point of total supply and total demand. Because the production cost and normal profit fluctuate little in the short term, the output that capitalists are willing to supply will not change much, and the total supply is basically stable. In this way, the employment actually depends on the total demand, and the balance between total demand and total supply is effective demand. Keynes further believed that the effective demand composed of consumption demand and investment demand mainly depends on three basic factors: consumption tendency, marginal efficiency of capital, liquidity preference and money quantity. Consumption tendency refers to the proportion of consumption in income and determines consumer demand. Generally speaking, with the increase of income, the growth of consumption often fails to catch up with the growth of income, showing the law of "diminishing marginal propensity to consume", resulting in insufficient consumer demand. Investment demand is determined by the comparison between marginal efficiency of capital and interest rate. Marginal efficiency of capital refers to increasing the expected profit rate of an investment, which will decrease with the increase of investment. In the long run, it shows the law of "diminishing marginal efficiency of capital", thus reducing the temptation of investment. Because the precondition of people's investment is that the marginal efficiency of funds is greater than the interest rate (which is profitable at this time), when the marginal efficiency of funds decreases, if the interest rate can decrease year-on-year, the investment cannot be reduced, so the interest rate becomes the key factor to determine the investment demand. Keynes believed that interest rate depends on liquidity preference and money quantity. Liquidity preference refers to a psychological factor that people are willing to keep their income or wealth in the form of money, which determines the demand for money. Under a certain money supply, the stronger people's preference for money flow, the higher interest rate, and the higher interest rate will hinder investment. In this way, under the action of diminishing marginal efficiency of funds and liquidity preference, investment demand is insufficient. Insufficient consumption demand and insufficient investment demand will lead to a large number of unemployment and an economic crisis of overproduction. Therefore, the best way to solve unemployment and revive the economy is to intervene in the economy, adopt deficit fiscal policy and expansionary monetary policy, expand expenditure and lower interest rates, thus increasing consumption and investment, improving effective demand and realizing full employment. In short, Keynes believed that the existence of the above three basic laws not only caused insufficient consumption demand, but also caused insufficient investment demand, making the total demand less than the total supply, leading to insufficient effective demand, which led to the economic crisis of overproduction and unemployment, which could not be adjusted through the market price mechanism. He further denied the theory that all savings must be converted into investment through the automatic adjustment of interest rate, and thought that interest rate did not depend on savings and investment, but on liquidity preference (money demand) and money supply (money supply), and savings and investment could only be balanced through the change of total income. Not only that, he also denied the wage theory that traditional economics thought can guarantee full employment, and thought that the traditional theory ignored the difference between actual wage and monetary wage, and monetary wage was rigid, so it was impossible to maintain full employment only by flexible wage policy. He admitted that in addition to voluntary unemployment and friction unemployment, there is also "involuntary unemployment". Because of insufficient effective demand, the economy often fails to achieve full employment. In this way, Keynes betrayed the traditional economic theory and founded the total economics of total analysis. Therefore, in Keynesian economic theory, financial theory occupies a very important position. It can even be said that Keynes's economic theory is based on his monetary and financial theory. Basic theory Keynes's three basic theories: 1, law of diminishing marginal propensity to consume 2, law of diminishing marginal efficiency of capital 3, law of liquidity preference Keynes pointed out that there are three laws of diminishing marginal propensity to consume, diminishing marginal efficiency of capital and liquidity preference in real life. Due to the existence of these laws, with the development of society, there will inevitably be the problem of insufficient effective demand. Insufficient effective demand makes the products produced by enterprises unable to sell, enterprises stop production or even go bankrupt, which eventually leads to the outbreak of economic crisis and the unemployment of workers. State intervention Keynes comprehensively expounded his economic theory and policy proposition, holding that "Say's Law" is not valid, supply cannot automatically create demand, and the economy cannot automatically reach equilibrium. Because, when the marginal propensity to consume is generally stable, people always spend most of their increased income on savings, not consumption, which makes the effective demand often insufficient, and it is difficult for the total social supply and total social demand to automatically reach a balance. Therefore, in order to solve the problem of insufficient effective demand, Keynes advocated abandoning economic liberalism and replacing it with the principles and policies of state intervention. The most direct manifestation of state intervention is to realize deficit fiscal policy, increase expenditure, and make up for the shortage of private investment with the increase of public investment. Increasing public investment and public consumption expenditure and realizing expansionary fiscal policy are effective ways for the state to intervene in the economy. The resulting fiscal deficit is not only harmless, but also helpful to reuse the "leaked" or "sluggish" wealth in economic operation for production and consumption, thus achieving a balance between supply and demand and promoting economic growth. Keynes pointed out that by expanding expenditure, including public consumption and public investment, the situation of insufficient effective demand can be improved, thus reducing the unemployment rate and promoting economic stability and growth. * * * expenditure has a chain effect greater than the original expenditure, and a * * * expenditure can reach the income level of several times the original expenditure. This phenomenon is called "multiplier effect", and we call k the investment multiplier, which tells us that when the total investment increases, the increment will be k times the investment increment. Therefore, K= 1/( 1-b). Where b is marginal propensity to consume, b = Δ c/Δ y, Δ c is consumption increment, and Δ y is national income increment. It can be seen that the greater the marginal propensity to consume, the greater the multiplier effect of expenditure. That is to say, under the effect of multiplier principle, every time * * * increases an expenditure δG, the economy correspondingly increases the national income by K times δ g. That is, K. δ g. In order to achieve the purpose of increasing national income and promoting economic growth, * * * will implement an expansionary fiscal policy, which will inevitably expand the scale of * * * expenditure. Keynes finally concluded that there is no invisible hand in the market that can transform private interests into social interests, and the economic crisis and unemployment cannot be eliminated. Only by relying on the visible hand, that is, * * *, can we get rid of economic depression and unemployment. To this end, Keynes advocated realizing full employment and effective demand through income distribution policy. In order to increase the demand for social investment, he advocated expanding public project expenditure, increasing money supply and implementing deficit budget for national economic activities in order to increase national income and achieve full employment. Keynes's main works are: Economic Consequences of the Treaty of Versailles (19 19), Monetary Reform (1923), Monetary Theory (1930) and Persuasion Collection (19). Keynes's theoretical system of inductive logic is expressed in his book Probability Theory (192 1). This book was completed as early as 19 1 1 years ago. 19 12 Russell mentioned it in his philosophical problems. After several revisions, it was not published until 192 1. The achievements of family member Keynes are related to his background and personality. Keynes's father (Neville) was an economist and logician in Cambridge, and his mother (Florence) was also a Cambridge graduate and was once the mayor of Cambridge. His father, J.N. Keynes, was an economist and logician. He taught at Cambridge University and worked with famous logicians such as Wayne and W E Johnson. And little Keynes's teacher is the famous Johnson. Many of his ideas about inductive logic also came from his teacher. Johnson taught at Cambridge University all his life and had an important influence in the field of logic, especially inductive logic. Like many great financiers, Keynes was very bold in major events and dared to use a lot of money to support an argument. But in small matters, he is very conservative. Once, Keynes and a friend were on vacation in Algiers, Algeria. They let a group of local children shine their shoes. Keynes paid so little that the children were so angry that they threw stones at them. His friend advised him to give more money, and Keynes, one of the greatest economists in the world, replied, "I won't let the currency depreciate." Keynes regarded the future income of capital assets as a series of expected annual income of this investment, and regarded the supply price of capital assets as the expected replacement cost of assets. Moreover, he believes that the marginal efficiency of capital is decreasing. Keynes devoted considerable space to attracting investment in his General Theory. The theory of attracting investment is the most important part of his general employment theory. According to Keynes's view, only when the expected return of capital assets exceeds the supply price or replacement cost of capital assets, will it be profitable to continue investing and induce capitalists to invest. Faced with insufficient demand and serious unemployment during the Great Depression, Keynes put forward the necessity and importance of * * * intervention in his general remarks. * * * Unemployed people can find jobs by building bridges, dams and other public works. These people use their wages to buy food and other commodities after employment, thus reducing the demand for these commodities, and the manufacturers who produce these commodities will hire more people. These employed people have met another round of demand and increased the employment of others. Social Evaluation john maynard keynes was a famous economist, philosopher and politician who was active in the western academic, ideological and political arena in the first half of the 20th century. He was also a key figure in dealing with internal and external crises in the 20th century and realizing the fundamental transformation of policies and ideological traditions in the western world. In 1930s, Keynes initiated a revolution that led to fundamental changes in the paradigm and field of economics research (the famous "Keynesian Revolution"): in the late World War II and the early 1940s, Keynes participated in the establishment of the International Monetary Fund, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (the World Bank) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (the predecessor of the WTO), which constituted the so-called "Washington System", that is, the world today. At the annual meeting of the American Economic Association from 65438 to 0998, Keynes was rated as the "most influential" economist in the 20th century among 150 economists (Friedman ranked second). 1February 4th, 936, the publication of john maynard keynes's Last Times magazine and Keynes's representative work General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (which is the core document of Keynes's revolution) immediately caused a sensation in the shocked western world after the Great Crisis. Western scholars commented on this: "When a fatal crisis threatened the capitalist world, Keynes saved and consolidated this society." Some scholars compare Keynes's theory to "Copernicus in astronomy, Darwin in biology and Einstein in physics." As a teenager, he had the opportunity to meet some economists and philosophers and made some friends with literary talent and innovative spirit. Later, he entered Cambridge University to specialize in mathematics and graduated with honors. Later, he worked as an economics teacher at King's College of Cambridge University. After the outbreak of World War I, he was recruited to work in the Ministry of Finance. He attended the Paris Peace Conference as the chief representative of the British Treasury, and resigned angrily and returned to Cambridge because his opinions on German reparations were not accepted. Keynes has long been the editor-in-chief of the authoritative journal Economics. He has published several famous books, earned hundreds of thousands of pounds in securities investment, served as a consultant or director of many companies, opened an art theater and served as the general manager of the Royal Academy. During World War II, Keynes served as an adviser to the British Treasury and was the main maker of British wartime economic policy. Before and after the war, he was busy with a series of activities such as the Anglo-American loan negotiation and the Bretton Woods Conference. 1946 died on April 2 1 day. Don't be sad for me, my friend, don't cry for me. Because, I don't have to work hard anymore. Heaven will be full of hymns and sweet music, and I won't even sing anymore.