The Securities Times reporter found that this new round of real estate policy presents three new characteristics: First, this new round of real estate policy is no longer simply to stimulate the demand for housing, but to combine with local population policies and talent policies, hoping to achieve multiple goals, such as the latest real estate policies in Wuhan, Hangzhou, Dongguan, Luzhou, Changzhou and Shenyang; Second, this round of housing purchase policy is no longer the relative unity of the whole country, but the localities have more autonomy. They all take flexible and diverse measures to stabilize the property market according to their own conditions, such as Changsha, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Dezhou, Rizhao, Lianyungang and Huizhou. Third, the regulation of first-tier cities such as Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen and a few key second-tier cities in China has not been significantly relaxed. Third-and fourth-tier cities have the greatest relaxation, and the gap between housing purchase policies in different cities has widened.
Many experts and insiders interviewed by reporters said that the biggest problem in the current real estate market is the lack of social confidence. The current policy adjustment is still not a major positive, but only a partial adjustment, which is difficult to boost the market on a large scale in the short term, but overall, the real estate market has begun to bottom out.
Combining population and talent policies
The combination with other policies such as population policy and talent policy is a new feature and trend in the future.
On May 14, Dongguan Housing and Construction Bureau issued a new property market policy in the early morning, pointing out that commercial banks should implement differentiated housing credit policies and reasonably determine the down payment ratio and loan interest rate of commercial personal housing loans. In addition, families with two or three children in line with the national birth policy are allowed to buy a new set of commercial housing.
Coincidentally, Nanjing's latest housing purchase policy also points out that Nanjing registered families who have two or more children can buy a new set of commercial housing and enjoy the best loan interest rate of relevant banks. The New Deal in Hangzhou makes it clear that eligible three-child families will give priority to "families without housing" when signing up for the public lottery sales of new commercial housing.
There are many cases similar to the combination of the new property market policy and other policies. Shenyang's latest housing purchase policy relaxes the purchase restriction conditions and inclines to families with two or more children and young talents. Shenyang has made it clear that families who have given birth to two children and three children 18 years old and already own two houses in the administrative area can purchase 1 set of new commercial housing in Shenyang's restricted purchase area. Shenyang also stipulates that if the housing provident fund for the birth of two children and three children 18 years old is paid into the employee's family, and the housing provident fund loan is used to purchase self-occupied housing, the loan amount can be relaxed to 65438+ 0.3 times the maximum loan amount in the current period.
In addition, for young talents, Shenyang once again expanded the scope and intensity of support for provident fund loans. For full-time college graduates with bachelor's degree or above within five years after graduation, the loan limit of provident fund can be relaxed to 65438+ 0.2 times of the maximum loan amount in the current period.
On May 19, Luzhou, Sichuan Province also issued a clear document, offering a one-time subsidy of 2% of the total purchase price to active servicemen, ex-servicemen, rural registered residents in Luzhou, non-registered residents in Luzhou, graduates from universities (including junior college and undergraduate) who have graduated for less than five years, and families with two or three children.
In addition, Wuhu, Anhui Province gives eligible young talents a housing subsidy of up to 200,000 yuan, Rizhao, Shandong Province gives young talents a housing subsidy of up to 654.38+10,000 yuan, and at the same time increases the maximum amount of the first home provident fund loan to 1 10,000 yuan.
The relevant situation has become a trend. According to incomplete statistics, many cities, such as Hangzhou, Nanjing, Wuxi, Dongguan, Leshan, Mianyang, Dazhou, Suzhou and Luzhou, etc. A new policy of buying houses for families with many children was introduced, including granting housing subsidies, increasing the amount of provident fund loans and relaxing the purchase restriction policy. In addition, the latest housing policies in Changzhou, Wuhu, Shenyang, Hebi, Rizhao, Yangzhou, Luzhou and other cities all give preferential conditions to young talents in terms of loan restrictions.
Zhang Lei, a postdoctoral fellow in Peking University, told the Securities Times that China will enter an aging society with fewer children. The decrease of the birth population and the increase of the elderly population are the future population trends in China, and the policy experience of developed countries such as Japan shows that no single policy measure can play a decisive role in improving the fertility rate. Only a family support package covering marriage, childbirth, education, housing, old-age care and social security can be established. Only by optimizing the supply of public services and the allocation of public resources can we fully guarantee family development and enhance family fertility, which is also the reason why the new policy of buying houses in many places is combined with policies such as talents and population.
Yue Xiangyu, deputy director of Ping An real estate market research, also told reporters that the premise of relaxing restrictions is to narrow the scope of policy application and reduce the intensity of easing. This is mainly because some regions hope to gradually increase the price through tentative relaxation, so as to avoid the rapid pace of relaxation and lead to rapid market warming. Compared with the previous easing policy, the form is more abundant.
Many experts said that the combination with population and talent policies is gradually becoming a new trend in the new round of real estate policy optimization. The housing support policy for families with many children can not only promote the release of reasonable housing demand, but also encourage fertility and population growth to a certain extent. Combined with the talent policy, it is conducive to attracting talents from all over the world, and it is expected that more cities will follow suit.
Various forms, depending on the city.
Local housing policies are more flexible, diverse and localized, which is also a major feature of this round of policy tide to stabilize the property market. In this round of policies, various localities have flexibly adopted one or more measures according to their own conditions, such as adjusting the provident fund, optimizing the loan restriction, reducing the down payment ratio, implementing deed tax concessions, shortening the sales restriction period, giving housing subsidies, and revitalizing the leasing market. , adjust the purchase policy of the city.
In this new wave of stabilizing the property market, Changsha is one of the more striking cities. Its latest purchase policy is clear, and the houses that have been registered for online signing or real estate registration are not included in the calculation of family housing units after they are revitalized for rental housing. In this regard, some voices believe that the New Deal in Changsha is equivalent to giving a free "room ticket" to the vast majority of improved families with strong replacement needs.
However, the Changsha Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau official said that the policy still has some restrictions. For example, the owner needs to sign the Cooperation Agreement on Revitalizing the Existing Houses in Changsha for Rental Housing with the pilot enterprises, and the existing houses will be revitalized for rental housing. The service life shall not be less than 65,438+00 years. At the same time, at present, in the qualification examination, if one or more houses are revitalized for lease, the principle of "one deduction for one household" will be applied temporarily.
A number of hot cities such as Tianjin, Dongguan, Huizhou, Foshan, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuhan and Jinan have also launched "optional actions" according to their own conditions. Tianjin will increase the maximum amount of first-time housing provident fund loans from 600,000 yuan to 800,000 yuan; Dongguan will adjust the period of exemption from value-added tax for individual housing transfer from 5 years to 2 years, and commercial housing can be traded and transferred after obtaining the immovable property certificate for 2 years; Huizhou canceled the purchase restriction in Huiyang District and Daya Bay District; Foshan's 5-year second-hand housing does not account for the number of purchases, and the transaction is not limited; The New Deal in Hangzhou stipulates that the social security requirements for second-hand houses purchased within the scope of purchase restriction after less than five years of settlement will be cancelled, and families with non-local household registration can purchase houses by continuously paying social security or paying a tax of 12 months, thus lowering the threshold for the purchase restriction of second-hand houses; The restriction on the sale of first-hand houses in Suzhou was adjusted from 3 years to 2 years, and the restriction on the sale of second-hand houses was completely cancelled.
Some cities have launched a combination boxing to stimulate the purchase of houses. For example, the latest policy of stabilizing the property market in Luzhou, Sichuan, involves giving housing subsidies, optimizing land transfer conditions, adjusting and implementing tax policies, implementing differentiated housing credit policies, canceling mortgage loan deposits, optimizing and perfecting the online signing and filing of second-hand houses, handling taxes and fees, and handling transfer registration workflows.
Changzhou, Jiangsu and Shenyang, Liaoning are also sincere about stabilizing the property market. Among them, Changzhou will adjust the restricted sales time from four years after obtaining the property right certificate to two years, and at the same time reduce the down payment ratio of the second housing provident fund loan from 50% to 30%, and at the same time increase the maximum loan amount of the provident fund from 300,000 to 600,000, and the maximum for families to 900,000. In addition, Changzhou has also increased its support for high-end talents such as doctors and masters under the age of 35.
Other cities have a variety of new policies to stabilize the property market. Luoyang, Shangrao, Lianyungang, Meizhou and other cities will reduce the down payment ratio to 20%, Zhuzhou, Nanyang, Huangshi, Yueyang and Hebi. Have deed tax concessions or financial subsidies for house purchase. Wuxi adjusted the exemption period of individual housing transfer value-added tax from 5 years to 2 years.
The scale of loosening varies greatly.
At present, several first-tier cities in China, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, have no other major policies to stabilize the property market except the national interest rate reduction policy. The cancellation of the new policy of restricting the purchase of second-hand houses in Nanjing was urgently deleted less than three hours after the official announcement. In April this year, a bank in Guangzhou launched a "relay loan", which was also stopped that day. It can be seen that in terms of the property market, key cities such as Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen have not obviously relaxed.
According to the analysis of China Central Index Research Institute, from the point of view of the policy priorities of cities in each tier, first-tier cities make fine-tuning in housing subsidies, settlement/talent introduction, while second-tier cities pay more attention to optimizing purchase restriction, adjusting provident fund, granting housing subsidies, settlement/talent introduction, etc. Third-and fourth-tier cities pay more attention to housing subsidies, housing support for families with many children, and settlement/talent introduction, while weaker third-and fourth-tier cities relax their loan policies to the minimum level stipulated by national policies to stimulate housing consumption.
The agency said that in the short term, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference will adjust the real estate market to "support local governments to improve their real estate policies according to local conditions", and it is expected that the pace of implementing policies in local cities will be further accelerated and may continue to increase. It is expected that policies for first-tier cities will continue to focus on fine-tuning, with talent introduction or bail-out as a breakthrough to restore market confidence, while policies for other cities are expected to continue to increase, and restrictive policies such as restricting loans and sales are expected to be optimized.
On April 18, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued 23 measures to clarify the real estate adjustment of "stabilizing land price, house price and expectation" again.
On April 29th, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting emphasized that houses should be used for living, not for speculation, supporting local governments to improve real estate policies according to local conditions, supporting rigid and improved housing demand, optimizing the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing, and promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
It is understood that this is the first time that the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC has paid special attention to the real estate industry for many years, which shows that the real estate market situation is grim. The central government's support for all localities to improve their real estate policies based on local conditions shows the central government's support attitude towards all localities to improve their real estate policies due to the city, and releases a more positive and clear signal.
From the data point of view, the real estate industry in China in the first quarter of this year is really not optimistic. In the first quarter of this year, the national real estate development investment increased by 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate further declined. The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 13.8% year-on-year, and the sales decreased by 22.7% year-on-year. In March, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 key monitoring cities increased by 48% from the previous month, and the year-on-year decline expanded to 47%. The overall performance scale of the top 100 real estate enterprises also decreased by 47% year-on-year.
Lack of confidence is the biggest problem.
Zhang Lei told the Securities Times reporter that this year, under the influence of a new round of epidemic, the real estate market has accelerated its downward trend. In April, the year-on-year growth rate of major data such as real estate investment, sales, new construction and construction continued to be negative, and the decline continued to expand, making it more difficult for the real estate industry to stabilize. At present, lack of confidence is the biggest problem for real estate. The key to changing the downward trend of real estate is to reverse the expectations of society, especially residents, for the real estate industry. The current policy adjustment is still not a major positive, but only a partial adjustment, which is difficult to boost the whole market on a large scale in the short term.
Yue Xiangyu told the Securities Times reporter that before the current epidemic, macroeconomic and real estate sales were declining. Under the epidemic situation in COVID-19, residents in some areas have difficulty going out, so they can't see and buy houses naturally, which has accelerated the bottom of the real estate market. Under normal circumstances, whether the real estate control policy is loose or tight, even if it is effective, it will inevitably have a certain lag. Under the influence of the epidemic, the effects of various policies will be further delayed, at least until the end of the customs clearance. In addition, in the case that the tone of "staying in the house without speculation" remains unchanged, local governments will try their best to stabilize the trend of housing prices and avoid skyrocketing and plunging, so that residents will be more rational in buying houses. Therefore, although the certainty of market recovery is high, the pace will not be too fast.
An, an expert from the Credit Management Committee of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions Branch, also told reporters that at present, the whole real estate industry is in a serious downturn, and the repeated COVID-19 epidemic this year has made the industry worse. It is expected that the current intensive real estate policies will have limited effect.
Wu Zhongyan, an insider of the financial system, said that the real estate industry has a long chain and a strong driving role. This round of property market stability policy has practical significance and positive effect for new citizens and young college students to live and work in peace and contentment and take root in one place, and is also conducive to speeding up the clearance of existing new houses and the withdrawal of funds from housing enterprises.
Judging from the trend of buyers from all over the world, this round of policies to stabilize the property market has stimulated consumers' demand for housing to a certain extent.
According to media reports, institutional data show that the average daily listing volume of second-hand houses in Hangzhou two days after the New Deal is nearly seven times that of the net listing volume in the past month before the New Deal. A number of real estate agents interviewed said that since 17, the number of second-hand housing consultations has increased significantly. Due to the optimistic market prospects, individual owners in Hangzhou raised the listing price, and some owners raised 800,000 yuan at one time. However, for the owners with sharp price increases, the broker's blunt words are a bit outrageous. Real estate agents in Shenzhen, Tianjin and Suzhou also said that the number of people looking at houses has increased recently.
Jaco, dean of the branch of Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the overall real estate market has not shown a comprehensive warming trend in April, and the downward pressure on housing prices in some cities still exists, and market confidence is in the stage of bottoming out.
In addition, from a national perspective, the property market policy is becoming more and more relaxed. On May 20th, less than a week after the lower limit of the first set of personal housing commercial loan interest rate was lowered by 20 basis points in May 15, the central bank announced the new LPR interest rate, and the LPR closely related to personal housing mortgage loans for more than five years was lowered by 15 basis points to 4.45%. This means that the room for lowering mortgage interest rates is further opened, with a minimum of 4.25%.
According to the mainstream mortgage interest rate data of key cities released by RealData, in May 2022, the mainstream first home loan interest rate of 103 key cities monitored by RealData was 4.9 1%, and the second home loan interest rate was 5.32%, which were 26 basis points and 13 basis points lower than last month, respectively, for 20 19 years.