Since the polar rabbit began to lay its net in China in March, 2020, like a lone wolf, it has made its own sky by its own efforts. According to Tencent News "Wang Qian", up to now, the maximum number of tickets for Polar Rabbit has reached 25 million, and according to insiders of Polar Rabbit, the first "climax" of Polar Rabbit Express this year will appear during 18, the peak of orders.
In June of 2020, June of 10, and the beginning of 20021,the daily orders of polar rabbits reached 5 million, 10 and 20 million respectively. Tencent News "Wang Qian" learned from many insiders that Polar Rabbit has set a daily order target of 40 million this year, striving to surpass Tong Yuan and become the third largest express delivery company after Zhongtong and Dayun, laying a good foundation for listing in 2022.
The express delivery industry has a huge market space. According to the latest data released by the State Post Bureau, up to now, the economic aggregate of China postal express delivery industry has exceeded one trillion. By the end of this year, the total volume of express delivery in China is expected to exceed 100 billion pieces.
Express delivery industry is one of the infrastructures of e-commerce, which started earlier than e-commerce, excluding postal services. Shunfeng and Shentong were established in 1993, Dayun in 1999, Tong Yuan in 2000 and Zhongtong in 2002. JD.COM started to build its own logistics in 2007, and started to set up Jingdong Logistics on 20 12.
Recently, it was reported that Jingdong Logistics will IPO. As early as 20 16, Zhongtong, Tong Yuan and Shentong were listed one after another, and Dayun and SF were listed one after another in 20 17. The research reports of several brokers show that the market concentration of the express delivery industry has been increasing in recent years. At present, Tongda Department, Shunfeng Department and JD.COM Department rank top in the express delivery market, and their business volume accounts for 82.4% of the total express delivery in China.
Before the arrival of the polar rabbit, the small and medium-sized players in the express delivery industry had limited strength and fighting capacity and were often squeezed. Today's troublesome daily express delivery is a new case. Shell Finance reporter saw that in the first half of 2020, the daily express revenue was 566.5438 billion yuan, with a loss of 552 million yuan. From 2065.438+07, the daily loss of express delivery exceeded 4 billion in three and a half years. Prior to this, companies such as Youth Travel Express, Guo Tong Express, Fengda and Yafeng Express were once shut down or forced to withdraw from the market.
In the industry's view, it is difficult to change the trend that the market share of second-and third-tier express delivery enterprises flows to first-tier express delivery enterprises, because express delivery is a highly labor-,capital-and technology-intensive enterprise, and it is difficult for small and medium-sized players to have a large living space.
The arrival of the polar rabbit is a challenge to the inherent rules of the entire express delivery industry. Official website, founded on 20 15, is the first express delivery company in Southeast Asia with Internet distribution as its core business. Its founder Li Jie is the general manager of OPPO Indonesia, and Chen Mingyong is one of its early investors. With OPPO and Pinduoduo standing behind Duan Yongping, from the outside world, the relationship between Polar Rabbit and Pinduoduo is unusual. In fact, at present, 90% of polar rabbit's business also comes from Pinduoduo.
In addition, polar rabbit began to seize the market at low prices, which had a fierce conflict with the relatively low-end access system. Immediately, the polar rabbit was defined as a rule breaker by Tongda Department and was banned. In July 2020, Tong Yuan began to ban the breeding of polar rabbits, followed by Shentong and Dayun. Among them, Dayun's ban is the most thorough. Not only is it forbidden for polar rabbit express to enter Dayun's express network, but it also does not let go of polar rabbit express that has already flowed into the transshipment link and the terminal network. The distribution center will collect evidence and report it, handle it according to the problem and return the original order.
After the investigation of burning finance and economics, it is known that the joining mode of Tongda Department has not completely blocked the rabbit, and even left it with a lot of room for development. Some basic franchisees did not block the business of Extremely Rabbit as required, and even some colleagues encouraged the growth of Extremely Rabbit and expressed their boycott together. As a result, they secretly sent it to the rabbit.
In some areas, the grass-roots couriers and franchisees of Extreme Rabbit will be isolated and complained maliciously. However, a middle-level manager of a polar rabbit company in Chengdu said that they would also sit down with some people from Tongda Department to have dinner and chat to share opportunities and "make money together".
However, the trouble of the polar rabbit does not stop there. According to reports, on April 9, Best Express and Jitu Express were punished by Yiwu Postal Administration of Zhejiang Province for "low-price dumping". The main measure is to stop some distribution centers and implement them on the same day.
Also on April 9th, Pinduoduo issued a statement through the merchant version of App, indicating that there is no special cooperation or investment relationship with Extreme Rabbit Express. A person close to Pinduoduo said that Pinduoduo insisted on platform operation, and it had an ordinary cooperative relationship with Polar Rabbit, and no investment information was found. In this regard, an internal employee of Extreme Rabbit said that they really have no equity relationship with Pinduoduo. "We don't want to be branded as Pinduoduo. We want to cooperate with all platforms."
According to the information of official website, at present, Polar Rabbit has cooperative relations with 14 e-commerce platforms such as Pinduoduo, Dangdang, Youzan, Suning.cn, Tik Tok, Aauto Quicker, Dian Wei, etc., and has been connected to self-counter cooperation platforms such as honeycomb box, cloud cabinet and quick treasure post station.
Although polar rabbits are very unsociable, low prices are a powerful weapon. Burning money for the market is an effective tactic, which has been repeatedly proved by the Internet. According to media reports, Li Jie's mantra is "franchisees should be prepared to lose money for two years".
The war between platforms still depends on funds. At present, at least for one year, the polar rabbit is not short of money. According to LatePost, on April 7th, Extreme Rabbit Express completed the financing of US$ 65.438+08 billion (about RMB 65.438+06.5438+08 billion). As Bo Capital, Sequoia Capital and Gaoyou led the investment, the post-investment valuation was US$ 7.8 billion (about RMB 56.5438+065.438).
According to Zhang Qiang, an insider, although Polar Rabbit is known as the Pinduoduo of express delivery, it is not easy for it to replicate the success of Pinduoduo and go public within three years. Because the key to Pinduoduo's success is the innovation of e-commerce model, and low price is just a coat. In addition to the low price, polar rabbit did not show the innovation of express delivery mode.
The rejected polar rabbit
In the eyes of extremely rabbit employees, their competitors are not a certain enterprise, but the whole industry.
"The couriers in the same delivery area get along very well. At noon, they will eat together at street stalls, but they will not say hello to me when they see me wearing work clothes. " Lin Peng, a polar rabbit courier in a prefecture-level city in Fujian Province, said helplessly that he was a courier who just entered the business this year. He chose the polar rabbit because of its five insurances, one gold and basic salary, but unexpectedly he became a loner.
Lin Peng's experience is not a case in Xia Jingyang's view. Xia Jingyang is a franchisee in a county town of Best Express, but he was isolated by his peers after signing with Jitu. "I tried several times to deliberately block the truck with a small three-wheeled truck when unloading, just to prevent us from pulling the goods in time. Even before, other franchisees complained to the superior agent about me. Although it will be lost in the end, it will deliberately create some small troubles for us in daily scheduling. "
Xia Jingyang explained to Rang Finance that because the price war of Extreme Rabbit has disrupted the market, in addition to Dayun and Tong Yuan's boycott, local franchisees will spontaneously organize a group to boycott Extreme Rabbit. Because polar rabbits don't have dense outlets and sufficient transportation capacity, they have to rely on Tongda Department to deliver goods in areas below the county level. He thinks that boycotting will really frustrate the development of polar rabbit, but cooperating with polar rabbit is definitely more beneficial than harmful to him. Therefore, even if he is now managed by his peers, he still has no intention of giving up.
"It's not like I have thousands of big outlets every day. I have to survive. Of course, the premise of signing a contract with Polar Rabbit is that all the outlets I am responsible for are completed. " Xia Jingyang believes that there are not many delivery tasks in small places, and the rich transportation capacity of outlets can be fully utilized. "The courier can send about 300 pieces of express delivery a day, and the number of pieces delivered in the contract area is small, which is more than enough to send rabbits."
It is generally believed that as the master of OPPO and VIVO, the success of Extreme Rabbit depends on the offline store system of OPPO, but an industry insider pointed out that the huge franchisee system established by private express delivery companies such as Tongda and SF Express is the secret of the ultimate success of Extreme Rabbit.
"Defeat Tongda with the network of Tongda Department". One person described it.
Liu Dacheng, vice president of Tsinghua University Internet Industry Research Institute and director of Internet Logistics Research Center, said that Extreme Rabbit directly put the breakthrough point in the fourth and fifth tier cities. In terms of trunk logistics, whether it is Tongda Department, SF Express or Polar Rabbit, they all have their own layouts. However, at the end of the consumer market, these sites have no concept of brand loyalty because of insufficient supply, so Polar Rabbit can drive straight in by price advantage.
This is very similar to the 1980s, when Japanese Toyota entered the American market, facing three major car companies: General Motors, Ford and Chrysler. At that time, according to the requirements of American anti-monopoly law, their respective 4S stores were not allowed to restrict 4S stores from selling different brands of this kind of car. Finally, Toyota completed its occupation of the American automobile market through the channels of American automobile companies.
For Li Enchao, the franchisee of Extreme Rabbit, it is not the original intention to join in the price war with his peers. Li Enchao joined Polar Rabbit last March. At that time, the polar rabbit had just started. An old friend who is also an OPPO mobile phone dealer won the agency right at the regional level and asked Li Enchao if he was interested in joining Polar Rabbit. "This friend and I talked for a long time, and I also spent some time understanding the background of this courier company. Especially after knowing that Duan Yongping invested in rabbits, he strengthened his determination to join. " Li En used to be an OPPO mobile phone dealer, and he really admired and recognized Duan Yongping, a legendary figure.
After paying tens of thousands of yuan for admission, Li Enchao became a member of the extremely rabbit. He thought that with the help of the ambiguous relationship between Polar Rabbit and Pinduoduo with a strong background, joining Polar Rabbit would be a lucrative project with gratifying returns, but the reality was extremely cruel.
"I joined for a year and haven't seen any profit. Instead, it invested hundreds of thousands. In order to save manpower, I send the courier myself, even if I lose a little, I earn it. " Li Enchao told Combustion Finance that the management mode of the first-level agent of Extreme Rabbit is more flexible, while the superior headquarters only looks at the data results, so as a franchisee, it can follow the arrangement of the first-level agent. "Extreme rabbits pay great attention to data, and many decentralization policies are tied to quantity. After a certain amount is completed, there will be a corresponding rebate. As far as I'm concerned, the so-called subsidy given by Polar Rabbit is very little or even none. 8 thousand is not enough to plug the teeth. The key is to rely on policy rebates. "
As a result, Li Enchao embarked on a "price war" that he would not return even if he lost money. "Not only me, but also other franchisees do the same. Otherwise, how can a new express brand increase its share in the almost saturated express market? " Li Enchao told Burning Finance that as a rabbit franchisee, it mainly makes money in two ways, one is the price difference of dispatched parts, and the other is the policy rebate obtained after the quantity increases. "Everyone wants to carve up Tongda's cake at a low price. The former naturally can't make money in the' price war' and still owes money. In fact, you can't earn much by policy rebate. Basically no one has completed that amount. "
Li Enchao told Burning Finance that the extremely rabbit with capital as a backer has really developed rapidly. In a short time, the coverage of outlets in all cities in the province has been completed, and the transshipment center and trunk transportation are becoming more and more perfect, but the capacity of offline outlets is still unsatisfactory.
"Express delivery industry is a highly mobile industry, but in our local area, experienced couriers will not choose to come to Extremely Rabbit, even if our delivery fee reaches 1.2- 1.5 yuan, which is higher than 0.8- 1.2 yuan of Tongda Department. However, the brand of Extreme Rabbit is not good in the local industry. Our peers think that we are a' rogue' company that specializes in destroying the market. " Li Enchao believes that although this is only the personal subjective idea of the courier, it is indeed a major obstacle to the expansion of rabbits. "Without the courier, no amount of orders can be delivered. The area that a rabbit courier is responsible for may be the area that a branch of other courier companies is responsible for. The direct impact of the shortage of manpower is the backlog, so many complaints about polar rabbits on the Internet are concentrated on the slow delivery time. "
Li Enchao, who has not got rid of the loss situation, is much calmer now. "There are almost no profitable rabbit franchisees now, and even many agents and franchisees will squeeze franchisees and couriers and give themselves' blood back' through fines. But I never do this, and because the superior agent rarely gives me a fine, I have little extra burden. Moreover, the monthly loss has shown a downward trend, and it is only a matter of time before turning losses into profits. "
At the same time, Li Enchao feels that the local market share has come up, and then the timeliness and service will be improved. If Taobao orders are also open to polar rabbits in the future, polar rabbits will have more business, and it will naturally not be lonely.
In fact, there is still huge room for development in the business of Extreme Rabbit. According to Chen Lei, CEO of Pinduoduo, at present, the daily average number of parcels sent by Pinduoduo has exceeded 70 million, accounting for about one third of the country. At present, the number of polar rabbits is less than one third. In addition, at present, the polar rabbit can't access the rookie network, and there are the largest number of Taobao waybills in China. According to informed sources, it is already in the communication stage.
Run rabbit run.
Extremely rabbit runs very fast, and seems to be ready for a long struggle.
Express delivery industry is a typical economies of scale. The greater the volume, the higher the market share, the lower the cost and the greater the profit margin. An industry insider commented that 90% of the business of China e-commerce platform is oriented to the consumer Internet, so express delivery enterprises mainly rely on the rapid development of e-commerce, not on its service level, but on the service price to form a scale advantage.
Therefore, for express delivery companies, it is most important to strive for more businesses.
There are many ways to win customers, which are often unexpected. In Chengdu, Sichuan, a regional head of Polar Rabbit Express said that last year they tried to be live e-commerce for farmers and cooperatives. At first, from 1 1,000 to more than 2,000, this year they will continue to cooperate with some big V's to improve the effect of bringing goods to farmers.
The person in charge lives near the vegetable market. He often goes to the vegetable market to chat with bosses to see which batch of vegetables will be sold on the platform on a large scale. Rabbits will dock with the bosses of platforms and vegetable markets, and they will accurately grasp the first-hand information. "Recently, a large number of broad beans have been listed, and the order volume in a certain place is relatively large. We focus on one batch to ensure that they are delivered to customers as soon as possible. " The person in charge said.
At present, a transshipment center in his area has a daily ticket volume of 60,000 tickets, mainly vegetables and fruits, covering platforms such as Pinduoduo and Tik Tok. At present, there are more than 2,000 employees in Chengdu, southwest of Polar Rabbit. More than 70% of provincial agents are agents of OPPO operation channels, and Polar Rabbit will give them some equipment suggestions and subsidies.
Their daily management is also very strict. A small summary every week, a big summary on Friday. In order to find problems and solve them. He said that the person in charge of each area of the polar rabbit has requirements for the amount of tasks. A person led an area to win the first place in the division, and won more than 200,000 awards that month, but there were few management awards, usually two or three hundred yuan as a formal award.
"Extreme rabbit management emphasizes the ability to go up and down. Finish the task and you can go up. If you can't finish it, you will be given some time to correct it. If you can't catch up, then leave. " The person in charge said.
According to the understanding of combustion finance, Extreme Rabbit did not carry out price wars nationwide, but implemented policies for different platforms and regions. The person in charge of Chengdu said that they didn't have a price war with Tongda Department or other express delivery companies, and now it is stable within 10,000 orders, and one order is about 1.5 yuan.
Even, they will often sit together with people in the express delivery industry such as Tongda Department and SF Express to chat with each other and see what opportunities there are. Everybody makes money together. He thinks that the relationship between Extreme Rabbit and other express delivery companies is not life-and-death. This is a market that can accommodate more players.
According to the latest data, in the first quarter, the express delivery business volume and business income were 2193 million pieces and 223.77 billion yuan respectively, up 75% and 45.9% respectively, and the average growth rate in the last two years was 34.4% and 20.4% respectively.
But the most important means of extreme rabbits is low prices. Mido, the owner of Taobao, told RangFinance that the price of polar rabbits is really low. "The delivery place of our store is Haikou, and the contract negotiated with Polar Rabbit is that if the monthly delivery volume is more than 2,000, it will be 10 yuan for 3.5 yuan in Area 1, 6 yuan in Area 2 (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia) and in Area 3 (Xinjiang and Tibet). Before working with Dayun, I couldn't give 3.5 yuan a low price. "
Mido also knows that it is very dangerous to fill in the fake courier number on Taobao and then send the rabbit number to the customer privately. It is easy to be fined, but based on comprehensive consideration, he chose the risky rabbit. "I think there is no difference between rabbits and Tongda departments. For me, the inconvenience is that Taobao is not allowed to record the express delivery number, for fear of being punished. But fortunately, the customers I met are good people. As long as I can receive the goods, I don't mind using any express delivery. "
Live e-commerce has also become a track where rabbit speed is a key bet. In 2020, the live broadcast e-commerce GMV exceeded one trillion, generating tens of millions of packages. Tik Tok and Aauto faster are two of its 14 home appliance cooperation platforms in polar rabbit's brochure.
Rui Liu, the brand director of Extreme Rabbit Express, said in a public event that Extreme Rabbit will set up a logistics team of live e-commerce in major regions to co-ordinate the allocation of resources and arrange various services, including the stationing of courier brother, door-to-door packaging and receiving goods, etc., to help businesses solve such unpredictable problems.
The user experience problem is also the key problem that Extreme Rabbit needs to solve in the next step. Io said. Com, according to the data published by the State Post Bureau, in February 2020, 0.06% of polar rabbits' orders were complained to the postal system by users. In contrast, the complaint rate of Tong Yuan, which received the most complaints among the "four links and one reach", was only 1/3.
The direction of polar rabbits
Low price has never been the purpose of any industry development, but a means.
The "price war" in the express delivery industry continued until 20 19. According to the Securities Times, from 2065438 to June 2009, Shentong once reduced the price of e-commerce parts to 9 cents/bill in Yiwu, which caused some express outlets to hardly pay wages at that time. After that, through negotiation, everyone finally raised the price to around 2.5 yuan/single. Unexpectedly, after the arrival of Polar Rabbit, the price war of Yiwu local express delivery industry "rekindled", and the price per order fell below the 2 yuan mark again after the Spring Festival this year.
In fact, since 20 14, with the emergence of digital logistics, express delivery has gradually shifted from price competition to technology and efficiency competition, accelerating the pace of getting out of the price war, and the average unit price decline of express delivery is narrowing every year. By 20 19, the average unit price of express delivery only decreased by 1% compared with the previous year. However, in 2020, the arrival of the polar rabbit lowered the average price of express delivery 1 1%, the biggest drop since 20 14 years.
In March, the national average unit price of express delivery was 9.69 yuan, down by 13.3% year-on-year to 1.49 yuan. Among them, Dayun's single ticket revenue was 2. 19 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of13.4%; Shentong's single ticket income was 2.25 yuan, down 27.7% year-on-year, and Tongyuan's single ticket income was 2.25 yuan, down11%year-on-year; The single ticket revenue of SF was 65,438+05.74 yuan, down 65,438+02.1%year-on-year.
However, a merchant in Yiwu said that the worry that the unit price of Yiwu Express falls below 1 yuan is often in the off-season, such as 165438+ 10 and 65438+February, which are concentrated before and after the year, but once it reaches 6 18 and double/kloc-,
Extreme rabbits develop too fast, but this speed is not as fast as possible.
Zhao Xiaomin, an expert in the domestic express delivery industry, told Burning Finance that the rabbit itself never expected to get such a big order in such a short time. I feel that the "body" is suddenly so big, but the "head" is very small. For them, challenges still outweigh opportunities. The business logic of "Tongda Department" has been verified in the capital market, but Jitu has not found its own core competitiveness, and low price has never been the core. While they are running, they urgently need to make up lessons. Otherwise, any trouble in the market will be a drastic change for them.
"The cost of changing a logistics company is very high, and there may be communication costs. From this perspective, price is not the most sensitive. " Zhao Xiaomin said.
It can be said that both Tongda Department and Jingdong Logistics, with the growth of Alibaba and JD.COM Group, have invested more than10 billion resources in merchant resources and infrastructure construction to get through the nodes. They have become the habits of merchants and consumers and become the circulation nodes of a huge e-commerce system.
20 16 Liu explained why logistics should be done, saying that the cost of socialized logistics in China is extremely high. In 20 14, the cost of socialized logistics accounted for 17.8% of GDP in China, 7% to 8% in the EU and 5% to 6% in Japan. As of 20 17, the total cost of social logistics in China accounted for 14.6% of GDP.
Liu said that any Internet business model is doomed to fail if it cannot reduce the transaction cost and improve the transaction efficiency of the industry.
Zhao Xiaomin said that any market competition in the logistics industry is welcome, which means that the business model is constantly being verified and iterated.
An insider of Extreme Rabbit Company said, "We never discuss our competitors internally. We only focus on our own business. BBK people have a characteristic, which is to focus on their own style of play and not pay much attention to competitors. "
An industry source said that the IPO industry in the logistics industry has gradually increased in the past two years, but it is mainly concentrated in the upstream and downstream service fields, such as intelligent robots and freight enterprises. However, the express delivery industry itself has become a market with a mature model and style of play, and it is difficult for startups to run out.
Several internal employees of Extreme Rabbit contacted by Burning Finance will mention the overseas business of Extreme Rabbit. "Extreme Rabbit's focus is still on cross-border e-commerce business, and China market is only a part of it". As a courier company that started from Southeast Asia and entered the China market, if there is any perspective to understand their current radical actions, then cross-border business can be used as a perspective. Founder Li Jie once said in an open letter to employees: "If Polar Rabbit stays in Southeast Asia, sooner or later, other companies will attack and seize the market."
Under the epidemic, cross-border e-commerce has been making great strides. According to customs data, in 2020, the total import and export volume of cross-border e-commerce in China was 1.69 trillion yuan, up by 3 1. 1% year-on-year. Among them, exports 1. 1.2 trillion yuan, up 40. 1% year-on-year. In 2020, cross-border logistics service providers Xingyun Group and Zongteng Group respectively completed hundreds of millions of yuan of financing.
Pinduoduo explored the sinking market for e-commerce and redefined the way of e-commerce with social fission and games. What can polar rabbits close to Pinduoduo provide for the express delivery industry? I hope it's not just a low price.