There is no illusion about the Fed raising interest rates. Economists at Commerzbank believe: "The Federal Reserve will inevitably raise interest rates substantially next week-whether it is 75 basis points or 65,438+000 basis points. The main uncertainty is whether the Fed expects the median interest rate at the end of this interest rate hike cycle to be higher than the current market expectation of about 4.5%. At present, this uncertainty may support the dollar. "
Many American economists are very pessimistic. Former us treasury secretary summers said that if the interest rate is not close to 4%, the inflation problem cannot be solved. If he wants to choose between raising interest rates by 50 basis points or 65,438+000 basis points at the Fed meeting in September, he will choose 65,438+000 basis points that will help improve credibility. Summers pointed out that the CPI data in August showed that there was still a serious inflation problem in the United States.
Alerts about the recession in the United States are becoming more and more intensive. Recently, Barry Stern Licht, a real estate billionaire and former CEO of Starwood Group, warned that the aggressive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve would lead to a great recession, and the United States was about to face a real estate market crash. A more authoritative warning comes from the World Bank, whose latest report predicts that the global GDP growth rate will slow down to 0.5% and the per capita GDP will shrink by 0.4% in 2023.
Michael Hartnett, strategist at Bank of America, said that "the inflation shock is not over yet" and the decline in corporate profits may push US stocks to a new low. Hartnett's analysis of past bear markets also shows that the average decline of the S&P 500 index from top to bottom is 37%, and the bear market lasts for an average of 289 days. The strategist said that this means that the current bear market of US stocks may end in June 5438+ 10, when the S&P 500 index will fall to 3020, 23% lower than the current level.
The military department made the following emergency analysis of this information-
1, obviously, more and more negative factors are piling up in the American stock market, which will have a great impact on the world. The stock markets all over the world have been negatively affected by the American stock market. Therefore, it is very important to judge the downside of the US stock market and the running rhythm of the bear market. Major investment banks and financial institutions have made some corresponding predictions. However, we think Summers' prediction is quite reliable, because we have been tracking Summers' analysis of the US stock market. As a former US Treasury secretary, he really has more cards to judge the operation and space of the US stock market.
2. Judging from the actions of the Fed, there is no suspense for the Fed to raise interest rates on a large scale, so raising interest rates in September is not the end, but may only be a turning point in the process of continuing to raise interest rates. Because in September, the Federal Reserve set the goal of keeping the US inflation rate at 2%. In fact, in recent years, the Fed's actions have been very stubborn. Once the goal is set, it will continue to develop in this direction. In other words, inflation in the United States is likely to return to around 2% in the future. However, this will be conditional on the Fed continuing to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet, which will have a very serious negative impact on the US economy.
3. According to the Federal Reserve's action plan, it means that the US government will sacrifice the US stock market and the US economy to bring inflation back to a reasonable range. Judging from the current choice of the Federal Reserve and the choice of the US economy, this should be the only correct choice, because the US stock market will rise in the future. Then the American economy can be cured even if it is in recession, but if inflation cannot be contained, it will cause more trouble and eventually lead to systematic collapse. So at present, the US stock market will enter a very critical period in September and 10. If you can't hold on, you will drive down and completely open up the downside.
4. From a purely technical point of view, S&P has now become a short wind direction indicator. Many major investment banks are analyzing and forecasting the downward trend of Standard & Poor's. From 4,800 to now, the S&P has fallen by nearly 1 1,000 points, and its lethality is still great. However, according to the analysis of Bank of America, the S&P may fall to 3,000 points this year, which means that there is still room to fall by about 800 points from the current position, and this lethality can be said to be even stronger.
Standard & Poor's is one of the indexes in the United States, and its trend is very classic. If S&P really enters the bear market rhythm, it will deal a great blow to the market confidence of the whole United States.
To sum up briefly-
At present, the three major indexes in the United States are most obviously influenced by the Federal Reserve, and the power of pure market scenes has been unable to control their trend;
The fifth and sixth interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will be the most critical and fatal issue. We have also analyzed before that the fifth and sixth interest rate hikes, the most important thing is that the negative effects of interest rate hikes will change from quantitative to qualitative, leading to systematic collapse.
If the three major indexes of Wall Street continue to fall, they will all break through their important and sensitive support levels, leading to a vigorous avalanche in the capital market, which will come as scheduled. This is a very pessimistic thing, but it is also a very beautiful thing. Let's enjoy the avalanche of American stock market quietly, and let's feel the spectacular end of capital!
The wind is rustling, the water is cold, and the beautiful bubble is about to collapse.
Some things are about to happen, you can't escape, you can't hide; Let's enjoy his appearance quietly.