"I never thought I would see it again." Freud, 9 1 year old? Wyczalek got into Electrovan's cab again on 20 16.
Holding the steering wheel of the world's first fuel cell concept car, which he participated in manufacturing 50 years ago, the former GM engineer has light in his eyes.
It's four years in a blink of an eye. On September 8, 2020, General Motors announced that it would invest US$ 2 billion in electric vehicle company Nikola, in which the application of fuel cell technology is one of the highlights of strategic cooperation between the two parties. "Billions of dollars", this is the founder of Nicholas Trevor? Milton's evaluation of general fuel cell project.
In China, thousands of miles away, many people say that 2020 is the first year of hydrogen energy.
Profit-seeking capital is not very good at lying. According to the data of hydrogen cloud chain, in the first seven months of 2020, the nominal total investment in China's hydrogen energy industry exceeded 654.38+03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%, and there were five projects with an investment of/kloc-0.00 billion yuan, compared with only two in the same period of 2065.438+09.
Today, more than 40 local governments support the development of hydrogen energy. According to incomplete statistics, at present, the planned capacity of hydrogen fuel cell stacks in China exceeds 3,000 MW, and the estimated output of fuel cell vehicles exceeds 654.38+million.
On September 13, SAIC officially released the world's first fuel cell MPV? MAXUS chase marks? EUNIQ？ 7. At the same time, it announced its "hydrogen strategy".
Capital, government and automobile companies have stepped in. In this gradually cooling September, the hydrogen fuel cell market in China is particularly hot.
The temptation of hydrogen?
Speaking of fuel cells, many people now habitually add a word-hydrogen, that is, hydrogen fuel cells, suggesting that this is a change in energy and power.
Every energy revolution of mankind is a process of enhancing carbon reduction hydrogenation and energy density.
Hydrogen is an energy carrier with high energy efficiency. In ancient times, the energy density of wood as fuel was only 0. 13 megajoules per kilogram. At present, the highest energy density of standard coal, oil, natural gas and hydrogen reaches 140 MJ.
Moreover, hydrogen energy is a kind of renewable energy, which can be obtained in many ways. Whether it is industrial by-product, petrochemical energy or water, human beings can obtain hydrogen from it in various ways.
2 1 century, mankind is moving from fossil fuel era to green energy era. Gan Yong, an academician of China Academy of Engineering, believes that the transition can be divided into two parts: one is the transition from fossil energy consumption to green energy regeneration, and the other is the transition from high-carbon fuel to low-carbon fuel. If we return to the essence, it is still the "hydrogenation and carbon reduction" of fuel.
"Zero carbon" energy finally points to hydrogen energy, which is a clean energy with zero emission. The final product of the full reaction of hydrogen and oxygen is only water.
The attraction of hydrogen is so great that governments all over the world have begun to formulate strategies.
Many countries, such as Japan, regard hydrogen energy society as their national strategy. Since the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, Germany and other countries have regarded hydrogen energy as an important means to revitalize the economy. In June 2020, Germany announced that it would invest another 9 billion euros to support the development of hydrogen energy.
China has also begun to lay out in this respect. In May 20 16, the Central Committee of China and the State Council issued the Outline of National Innovation-Driven Development Strategy, saying that they would "develop a new generation of energy technologies such as hydrogen energy and fuel cells."
Then, in 20 19, hydrogen fuel cells were first included in the government work report, and in 2020, hydrogen energy was included in the draft energy law. Recently, some media reported that the master plan of hydrogen energy development in China, which was participated by several ministries, was being worked out, and the top-level design of hydrogen energy in China was ready to come out.
In terms of landing, the automobile industry is an important part of the hydrogen energy strategy.
As the main emitter of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, cars need to use hydrogen fuel through the fuel cell system.
Fuel cell is a kind of power generation equipment that directly converts the chemical energy in externally supplied fuel and oxidant into electric energy, thermal energy and other reaction products through electrochemical reaction.
At present, the fuel cells that have been studied in industry are proton exchange membrane hydrogen fuel cells with hydrogen as external fuel and oxygen as oxidant. A fuel cell vehicle is a vehicle that uses the electric energy generated by the on-board fuel cell system as its power or main power.
1966 10 10 On October 28th, in Michigan, USA, General Motors exhibited a concept car called Electrovan, which was regarded as the first fuel cell car in the world, but it was not popularized at that time because of its high cost.
Nowadays, whether at home or abroad, the trend of automobile electrification is unstoppable. However, the future is bright and the road is tortuous. From the past to the present, battery safety is still an important factor for many consumers to hesitate to buy pure electric vehicles. Recently, the "8 1 1" battery of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has also fallen into a safety dispute.
Hydrogen fuel cells are also a member of the electrification wave. "The safety of fuel cells is higher than that of lithium-ion batteries." Yi Baolian, an academician of China Academy of Engineering, believes that hydrogen fuel cell is essentially an energy conversion device realized by electrochemical reaction, which is consistent with the principle of lithium battery, but more similar to internal combustion engine in working mode.
Gasoline (diesel) of internal combustion engine is stored in the fuel tank, and hydrogen of fuel cell is stored in the hydrogen storage bottle. The former has an engine for energy conversion, and the latter's energy conversion place is in the fuel cell stack, which is separate from the hydrogen storage bottle.
"I have been engaged in fuel cells all my life, and there has never been a burning and explosion accident." Yi Baolian said that there is very little energy in the fuel cell stack. If something goes wrong, as long as the supply of hydrogen is cut off, safety can be guaranteed.
However, such a high-energy, efficient and safe renewable clean energy has just entered the window of commercialization.
Two dawns after two volts?
At present, the popularization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is the third wave since the 20th century.
General Ivan did not make much waves in 1966, and it was not until 1973 that the fourth Middle East war broke out that the first wave of fuel cell commercialization was brought.
At that time, the International Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed an oil embargo on Israel and other countries. It's only been three months, from 1973 10 to 1 in October, and the international oil price has been from13.1in October.
The oil crisis has made the research and development and investment of civil fuel cell vehicles hot for some time, but this wave is not lasting. With the temporary solution of the crisis, the fuel cell boom gradually cooled down.
The second wave arose around 2000 and was promoted by fuel cell manufacturers such as Ballard in Canada. However, because the technology at that time was not mature enough for commercial application, car companies did not support it, consumers did not have demand, and parts suppliers could not support the fuel cell vehicle market. Finally, hydrogen-powered vehicles did not develop.
For some time, due to the delay in mass production of hydrogen-fueled vehicles worldwide, many policies have gradually tilted towards pure electric vehicles equipped with lithium batteries, and the entire industrial chain of hydrogen-fueled vehicles has frequently closed down.
In 20 14, Toyota finally launched the world's first mass-produced hydrogen fuel cell vehicle Mirai, and the hydrogen energy automobile industry revived after years of silence.
Taking this as a starting point, the undercurrent of the third wave of hydrogen energy in the automotive field began to surge. However, perhaps this wave of commercialization of hydrogen fuel cells can really get up.
With the support of national policies, Toyota introduced Mirai, and Honda's Clarity, Hyundai NEXO and other passenger cars have been mass-produced. SAIC also introduced Roewe 950 equipped with hydrogen fuel cell system.
Zhang Jinhua, executive vice chairman and secretary general of China Automotive Engineering Society, said in 20 18 that the main performance of mass-produced models of foreign automobile enterprises, including life, power density, price, etc., has certain competitiveness compared with traditional automobiles.
In the field of commercial vehicles, Toyota overweight, while GM chose to cooperate with electric truck company Nikola to promote the landing of fuel cell system in the field of trucks. China's Great Wall, Futian and SAIC are also working hard.
However, compared with foreign countries, China's technical strength in the field of hydrogen fuel cells still has shortcomings.
"We should face up to the fact that there is still a certain gap between China's hydrogen energy and fuel cell industries and foreign advanced levels." Peng Suping, an academician of China Academy of Engineering and a professor at China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), said that the "stuck neck" technology is distributed in many links of the hydrogen energy industry, and it is urgent to break the technical blockade, including the shortcomings of hydrogen storage and transportation technology and related core equipment mainly relying on imports.
Stuck by what? ?
Fuel cell technology was originally used in aerospace, military and other fields. From the technology itself, it is relatively mature and not too difficult.
However, because it is used in aerospace and military fields at no cost, the technical threshold of fuel cells is actually very high. How to reduce the cost becomes the key when it is extended to the civilian field.
Whether at home or abroad, one of the core factors restricting the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is hydrogen itself.
On the user side and the government side, there is very little understanding of fuel cell vehicles, and there are many questions about their safety. At the same time, the regulations and standards are not perfect, and Toyota has also encountered difficulties in Japan: when hydrogen fuel cell vehicles enter confined spaces such as underground parking lots, no authoritative third party can prove that there are no safety hazards.
Zhang Jinhua has previously said that many officials still equate hydrogen with insecurity, so it is very important to popularize science.
Fortunately, the policy is being liberalized. Lan, vice president of SAIC, revealed that starting from this year, Shanghai will no longer define hydrogen as a dangerous chemical, but convert it into fuel. "Managing it as a fuel is a huge change in policy."
But the problem is not limited to these. As an energy source in the transportation field, the supply scale and price of hydrogen energy are not enough to support large-scale commercial promotion, and hydrogen fuel filling is difficult and expensive.
The hydrogen energy industry chain is divided into hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transportation and hydrogenation.
Take the terminal hydrogenation station as an example, the equipment inside includes compressor, hydrogenation machine, sequence control cabinet, gas unloading cabinet and so on. Fang, chairman of Shanghai Hefeng Energy Technology Co., Ltd. said, "Many of the equipment built in the hydrogen refueling station are foreign brands. At present, it is still difficult to come down. "
The cost of purchasing foreign equipment will be transmitted to the terminal hydrogenation price. At present, the price of hydrogen is still too expensive for consumers.
A senior engineer of SAIC hydrogen fuel cell told HD Auto Business Weekly, "Maybe hydrogen only needs a few dollars when it leaves the factory, but after desulfurization, purification, pressurized transportation and storage at the gas station, it may be boosted at the hydrogen station. In addition, the cost of adding gas stations may account for 40-50%, and the comprehensive cost is very expensive. "
Recently, in Anting's hydrogenation station, HD Auto Business Weekly watched a demonstration of hydrogenation. The screen of the machine shows that 0.35 kg of hydrogen * * * needs to be paid in 25 yuan RMB, that is, the hydrogenation price per kg exceeds that of 70 yuan.
However, according to relevant sources, the agreement they signed with the hydrogen refueling station is far less expensive, less than 40 yuan per kilogram.
However, the industry generally believes that only when the price of hydrogen reaches 20-25 yuan can users have a good experience. At present, the price of hydrogenation is often 60-70 yuan per kilogram, which is around 40 yuan after subsidy. Compared with refueling or charging, the unit price of automobile hydrogenation is more expensive. Therefore, it is difficult to promote it through pure market-oriented behavior in the short term.
Back to the manufacturing process of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, from a global perspective, the industrial chain of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is almost immature.
"Toyota, Honda and Hyundai mostly rely on the consortium behind them to establish a fully enclosed system." Zhang Ruiming, general manager of Guangdong Tailos Automotive Power System Co., Ltd. revealed to HD Automotive Business Weekly that many core materials and components such as catalysts and proton membranes are now in the hands of a few enterprises, and the cost remains high.
Lu Bingbing, general manager of Shanghai Jiehydrogen Technology Co., Ltd. pointed out that catalyst, proton exchange membrane and carbon paper are key technologies and components in the field of hydrogen fuel cell stack.
Taking proton exchange membrane as an example, the conditions for mass production of proton exchange membrane with perfluoro structure are harsh. On the one hand, fluorine chemical raw materials are very special, corrosive and easy to explode, which requires an industrialized and stable production platform and takes time to accumulate. On the other hand, manufacturers have to conduct experimental evaluation with car companies. "No one dares to use your film without experimental evaluation."
What is even more worrying is that the development of perfluoroproton exchange membrane is still in the stage of burning money. According to Zhang Yongming, chief scientist of Shandong Dongyue Group, "This membrane has been losing money, tens of millions every year. Ordinary companies are unwilling to do it, and only responsible companies are willing to do it. "
The country has also found these problems. At the TEDA forum on September 5, 2020, Song Qiuling, the first-class inspector of the Economic Construction Department of the Ministry of Finance, explained the changes in financial subsidies for fuel cell vehicles. "The core goal of the post-transformation demonstration policy is to support enterprises to accelerate the breakthrough of key core technologies and build an independent and controllable industrial chain."
At present, all aspects of hydrogen energy are not really connected, and the key core technologies of fuel cells are not in their own hands. These are two key problems that plague enterprises in China.
There are even contradictions between the two, including the price contradiction between the fuel cell system and hydrogen-"those who make hydrogen feel that the stack is expensive, and those who make the stack feel that the hydrogen is expensive", and the contradiction between the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen refueling stations-"Some cars feel that there is no (hydrogen) station, and some stations feel that there is no car".
The key to the problem lies in "scale"
/kloc-the line between life and death of 0/100,000 vehicles?
By August 2020, China has promoted more than 7,200 fuel cell vehicles, with a cumulative mileage of nearly 1 100 million kilometers and 72 hydrogen refueling stations, but this is far from enough.
"The number of fuel cell vehicles must reach one million in 2035. If it is not reached, there is a risk. " Ou Yangming, an academician of China Academy of Sciences and a professor of Tsinghua University, said frankly.
From the perspective of companies in western countries, there will be a "valley of death", that is, after successful technology development, commercialization has to overcome difficulties such as investment scale, rate of return and risk control, but China has now built a bridge for enterprises at the national level, so we should make good use of this opportunity.
"At present, China's fuel cell market is hot and the policy orientation is very obvious, which is a good thing." An expert who has been deeply involved in the fuel cell market for decades told HD Auto Business Weekly.
Unfortunately, many domestic enterprises only pay attention to immediate interests and spend money on production for state subsidies instead of improving technology. Therefore, the subsidy policy should not only take care of the status quo, but also encourage independent patent research and development and promote technological progress. This year's policy change of "replacing compensation with awards" also coincides with this principle.
After all, on the basis of policies, the active investment of enterprises is the driving force to promote the progress of the industry.
Zhang Tong, director of the Institute of Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology of Tongji University, bluntly said, "Due to various factors, the investment of domestic enterprises is still insufficient, and the industry will be difficult to get up." On the other hand, Toyota, GM and other car companies have invested in fuel cells for decades, and in recent years, the research and development expenses have reached hundreds of millions of dollars every year.
However, Zhang Tong said that SAIC is an exception in this respect. As the earliest automobile enterprise in China to develop fuel cell technology, SAIC started the Phoenix-1 fuel cell vehicle project on 200 1. In 2006, the Fuel Cell Division was formally established. From vehicle integration and system integration to the breakthrough of stack technology, the company has been investing in research and development, and has successively launched Roewe 750 and 950 for fuel cell passenger cars and FCV80 and EUNIQ for commercial vehicles. 7 and other models.
During this period, many fuel cell-related enterprises closed down or transformed, and SAIC was certainly affected.
At that time, Chen, director of the Fuel Cell System Division of the Forward-looking Technology Research Department, said frankly to HD Automotive Business Weekly, "Everyone outside is dead and there are doubts. Is this the right direction? Finally persisted. "
Now more and more domestic car companies are joining in, SAIC Chase MAXUS? EUNIQ？ It is planned to target the high-end business travel field and enter the personal consumption market, and the commercialization of domestic fuel cells has begun to accelerate the breakthrough.
Publish MAXUS? EUNIQ？ At the same time, SAIC has also released a "hydrogen strategy": by 2025, at least ten fuel cell vehicle products will be launched, SAIC Jiehydrogen Technology will reach a market value of 1000 billion, and a fuel cell R&D and operation team with more than 10000 people will be established to form a production and sales scale and market of10000 vehicle fuel cells. Above.
"Passenger cars using fuel cells are greatly limited by infrastructure. At present, it is more suitable for commercial vehicles, operating around hydrogen refueling stations and taking the lead in public transportation, logistics and urban travel. " Lan said.
At this year's TEDA Forum, Song Qiuling said: "This demonstration focuses on promoting the industrial application of fuel cell vehicles in the field of medium and heavy commercial vehicles, and leans towards heavy trucks."
Indeed, compared with passenger cars, buses and trucks have lower technical requirements for fuel cells. The scale of commercial vehicles can cultivate a number of suppliers of energy supply, spare parts and even materials, build China's independent industrial chain, and then gradually improve the technical level, and then expand to the passenger car field.
As Zu Sijie, vice president and chief engineer of SAIC, said, fuel cells should first be applied to commercial vehicles on a large scale, and scale will drive a virtuous circle of the industry.
For a long time in the future, combined with hybrid, passenger cars will continue to adhere to the pure circuit route, and the proportion of commercial vehicles such as buses and trucks will increase the application of fuel cell technology. "Two-track propulsion" will be the development trend of new energy vehicles.
More problems are yet to come. After commercialization, enterprises should also consider the "tolerance of fuel cell problems", that is, how to provide after-sales service. Fan, the chief scientist of China Energy Engineering Group, pointed out that this is the main problem that many American fuel cell enterprises failed in the past, and it will also be the difficulty that China enterprises must face in the future.
"Are you awake?" Fan said that he hoped the yogi would ask himself this question.
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This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.