Publish the proportion of multiple infections
According to National Health Commission, as of February 20th, 2022, the cumulative number of infected people in China was about 248 million, with an infection rate of 17.56%. Among them, Beijing and Sichuan are the two provinces with the largest number of infected people at present, and the infection rate is over 50%.
According to the test data of 65438 of Qingdao Municipal Health and Wellness Commission on February 23rd last year, the number of newly infected people in Qingdao is 490,000 ~ 530,000 every day, and it is estimated that the number of infected people will increase by 10% in the next two days.
On the same day, the Dongguan Municipal Health and Health Commission released a digital model to predict that the number of infected people in Dongguan is increasing by 250,000-300,000 per day, and the growth rate is rising.
According to the press conference of Zhejiang Provincial Government on February 25th, 2022, the number of newly reported positive people in Zhejiang Province has also exceeded 1 10,000.
65438 According to the data of the press conference in Quzhou on February 28th, 2022, the overall infection rate in Quzhou currently accounts for about 30% ~ 35% of the total population. On the 29th, the infection rate in Zhoushan reached 30% ~ 40%, and the total number of infected people was close to 400,000.
The cancellation of large-scale nucleic acid detection has caused the loss of accurate infection data. In order to better understand the epidemic situation and detect its development trend, Sichuan, Hainan, Henan, Anhui and other provinces carried out the second round of questionnaire survey on COVID-19 infection among residents.
According to the survey results released by the Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, as of February 25th, 2022, there were 158506 people who participated in the survey, and the infection rate was 63.52%, which was 16.59 percentage points higher than the first round of survey a week ago. It is worth noting that 28% of the investigated population did not detect nucleic acid or antigen, but showed symptoms of COVID-19 infection such as fever and cough, so the actual infection rate of COVID-19 in this investigated population should be higher than 63.52%.
The document issued in the evening of June 30, 2022 in Hainan Province shows that as of June 27, 2022, the number of people in the province was 33,682, and 35.5% of the respondents were on June 65,438+February 09-65. Based on the results of two rounds of surveys, the cumulative infection rate in the province reached 4 1%, and the number of infected people was in a period of high fluctuation, with the infection rate in urban areas being significantly higher than that in rural areas.
Nationwide, People's Social Communication released the survey statistics of COVID-19 infection rate in various provinces and cities on February 26th, 65438. On that day, * * * received 15 107 questionnaires, and * * * counted 47,897 people voting.
The data shows that among the respondents, Sichuan Province has the highest proportion of infected people, reaching 82%. The number of people infected in Beijing, Henan, Hubei, Hebei, Chongqing, Jiangxi and Hunan accounted for 80%.
The number of infected people in Yunnan, Shanghai, Fujian and Hainan provinces is less than 65%, among which Hainan province ranks the lowest in the country with an infection rate of 45%.
But among all the infected people, the recovered infected people account for a considerable proportion. More than 20% of the infected people were cured in all provinces, of which more than 50% were cured in Beijing and Hebei.
Due to subjective ignorance and other factors, there may be some deviations in the survey results, which are for reference only.
It is estimated that the peak of infection will be concentrated in 1 month in 2023.
In the process of accelerating the spread of the virus, when did the peak of COVID-19 infection appear?
According to the current predictions of local health committees and relevant experts, the epidemic peak in most provinces and cities in China will be concentrated in 65438+ 10 in 2023.
According to the press conference of Zhejiang provincial government on February 25, 2022, referring to the recent case monitoring and community sampling survey results, it is estimated that Zhejiang province will enter a high plateau period of about one week around New Year's Day, and the maximum number of new positive people will reach 2 million per day.
The press conference of Jiangxi Province on February 23rd, 2022 predicted that the first wave of epidemic in this province will reach the peak of infection in early October of 2023/KLOC-0, and most areas will enter the peak of epidemic in a week or so. At the beginning of March 2023, it turned into a low-level epidemic, and the epidemic lasted for about 3 months, when the cumulative infection rate would be close to 80%.
The first wave of epidemic peak in Shandong, Anhui, Hunan, Guangdong and other provinces will also come around 65438+ 10 in 2023.
Previously, most organizations also used Baidu search index to predict the epidemic trend, and the results mostly reached the peak in the middle and late February of 12. At present, this is different from the expert's prediction.
In addition, many experts have recently concluded that the peak of infection may come ahead of time.
On February 22, last year, Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases of Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, said that the epidemic situation in COVID-19 was still rising gradually, and the epidemic situation in Shanghai was expected to reach its peak within one week after the 22nd, and it would last for one or two months after the peak.
Tao Yisheng, director of the Anhui Provincial Health and Wellness Commission, said on February 23, 2022 that it is expected that most areas of Anhui Province will reach the peak of the epidemic before the end of February, and will enter the downward channel after maintaining a high level for two or three days. In some areas with high population density and high mobility, the peak value may be further advanced than the forecast time. For example, Hefei may reach its peak around the 25th to 26th.
"Now the number of infected people in various places has reached a relatively high level. According to the development law of the virus, serious peaks in various places may also arrive within 2 to 3 weeks. " Professor Qiu Yunqing, executive vice president of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, said.
Will the epidemic trend be "one peak and three waves"
With the recent increase in the number of infected people, how will the domestic epidemic develop in the future?
Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, once said that there will be "one peak and three waves" this winter, which will last for about three months. The first wave of epidemic occurred from mid-February, 65438 to mid-October, 65438/kloc-0; Affected by the flow of people during the Spring Festival, the second wave of epidemic will be from late October to mid-February in/kloc-0. The third wave of epidemic was affected by the resumption of work during the Spring Festival, from late February to mid-March.
Judging from the development of epidemic situation in countries/regions around the world last year, it seems that three waves of epidemic situation are inevitable, and the time span of each round and the number of infected people are related to the national epidemic prevention policy.
Take Japan and South Korea as examples.
Data chart
Japan is a representative of gradual liberalization, and the strict epidemic prevention index has declined step by step, so relatively speaking, the number of infected people has not surged. By February 29th, 65438, the cumulative number of infected people in Japan in 2022 was about 27.25 million, accounting for 2 1.37% of the total population.
The epidemic in Japan showed three waves of growth. The first round of epidemic has a long time span, but the number of infected people is relatively small. The cumulative number of infected people reached 7.44 million, accounting for about 5.83% of its total population, and the peak number of newly infected people in a single day was 93,000.
The second wave of epidemic lasted for 4 months, with a cumulative infection of 654.38+027,400 people, accounting for about 654.38+00%; The third wave of epidemic is still heating up, with about 65,438+million new cases in a single day.
Data chart
Compared with Japan, South Korea's epidemic prevention policy was loosened faster, and the strict epidemic prevention index fell off a cliff in April. Therefore, the first round of epidemic in South Korea showed explosive growth, and then the two rounds of epidemic slowed down, and it is currently in the third round of epidemic.
In 2022, the first epidemic in South Korea also lasted for six months, with a cumulative infection of 6.5438+0.765 million people, accounting for 34% of the total population, with a peak of 404,000 new cases in a single day.
Since then, two rounds of epidemic have slowed down. In the second round, the epidemic peak increased by 6.5438+0.35 million people in a single day, with a cumulative infection of 6.83 million people, accounting for 654.38+03.2% of the total population. In the current third round of epidemic, the number of infected people seems to have reached the peak, with about 65,000 new cases in a single day.
By February 29th, 65438, the cumulative number of cases of Omicron infection in Korea in 2022 was 283 10000, accounting for 54.72% of the total population.
Data chart
Although the epidemic situation in the two countries showed different growth patterns, the mortality rates in both countries were at a low level compared with the previous two years due to the decline in toxicity of Omicron and the increase in vaccination rate. The current mortality rate in Japan is 0.2 1%, and that in South Korea is 0.09%.
Data chart
On the whole, the epidemic situation in China is also on the rise. As New Year's Day and Spring Festival approach, the number of returnees increases, and the epidemic situation may show new fluctuations. Experts reminded that when returning home, you still need to do a good job of protection, plan your travel time, and travel at the wrong peak; Also, pay attention to personal hygiene such as hand disinfection and wear a mask.
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Author: Lian Lala Hsu
Wechat editor: Nano
Proofreading: capacity