Today (April 15), Changchun, which announced the first batch of centralized land supply plan, took the lead in holding the first batch of centralized land transfer in China. However, this centralized land transfer was somewhat dull, which only attracted four head housing enterprises to bid. Of the 5 1 plot originally planned to be sold,1plot was terminated, and finally 38 residential plots were sold, of which 32 were sold at the reserve price and 2 were sold by auction, all of which were concentrated in municipal districts, with a total transaction amount of193.08 million yuan.
According to the statistics of National Business Daily, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other cities have announced the first batch of centralized land supply plans this year, with a total land supply scale of 410.55 million square meters. Among them, the initial total price of land supply in Beijing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and Nanjing all exceeded 80 billion yuan. Judging from the time of the first batch of centralized land supply and transfer in each city, it is mainly concentrated in the middle and late April to the middle and early May for more than one month.
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The first centralized land transfer ended flat.
Of the first 38 residential land transactions in Changchun today, 32 were completed at the reserve price, with an average floor price of 3,225 yuan/square meter. Compared with the floor price of 3278 yuan/square meter of residential land in Changchun in 2020, the land price remains relatively stable. The premium rate is lower than the annual premium rate in 2020 by 1. 1 percentage point, reaching 3.3%. The planned construction area of this round of centralized land supply transaction is 5.62 million square meters, equivalent to 29.4% of the annual transaction volume in 2020. It can be seen that the pushing rhythm in Changchun is relatively uniform.
On the whole, the heat of centralized land transfer in Changchun is not high, which only attracts the attention of four head housing enterprises: China Railway, China Resources, Poly and Vanke. However, in the competition of high-quality plots, the head housing enterprises have obvious advantages.
The total investment of China Railway Real Estate in this land auction reached 4.4 billion yuan (including residential land of 3.9 billion yuan), and it obtained 1 1 residential land, 1 commercial land and 1 library land in Yongchun Town, Chaoyang District, Changchun City. All plots were sold at the reserve price, with an average floor price of 29 12 yuan/m2.
China Resources is the only real estate enterprise in this round of centralized land supply in Changchun that triggers the price limit and obtains land by competing for the leased area. The acquired land is located in Xiaonan Street, Kuancheng District, which is an important core city in the north of Changchun. After reaching the price limit, after 36 rounds of competition, the plot was finally acquired by means of 4 100 square meter rental housing allocation. The saleable floor price was 3,585 yuan/square meter, with a premium rate of 29.4%, which was the highest premium rate for this round of land supply.
In addition, Poly and Vanke each obtained 1 residential land, and the premium rate remained below 4%. In addition, all the remaining plots were acquired by local developers in Changchun, and most of them were sold at the reserve price. The premium rate of residential land acquired by local real estate enterprises only reached 15%-20%, mainly distributed in Nanguan District, Changchun New District and Jingyue High-tech Industrial Development Zone, which is the main development area of Changchun.
"This round of centralized supply bidding in Changchun has changed, from the past' the highest bidder wins' to' the price limit competition for rental housing area', and measures to stabilize land prices are gradually coming to the fore."
Pan Hao, a senior analyst at RealData, told the National Business Daily that the structure of centralized land supply in Changchun City has been significantly adjusted, mainly in the west and south. Chaoyang District and Lvyuan District have become the fastest growing areas in the proportion of residential land transaction planning construction area, accounting for the annual growth in 2020 10-20 percentage points. On the contrary, although Poly and Vanke have acquired land in Jingyue High-tech Industrial Development Zone, the residential land transaction plan in floor-area ratio in this region will decrease by 13.9 percentage points in 2020.
Pan Hao said that there are still two rounds of centralized land supply this year, and the overall supply structure still needs continuous attention. In this round of centralized land supply, two cases of residential land were auctioned off because there was no quotation from real estate enterprises, and the auction rate was 8.2%, which was lower than 10. 1% at the end of 2020, showing a downward trend.
15 The first batch of centralized land supply in the city exceeded 40 million square meters.
On April 14, 202 1 The first batch of 6 plots sold in a centralized way was listed in Shenzhen Public Resource Exchange Center, and the auction is expected to be held on May 13. Six plots are located in Baoan Jiangangshan 1, Guangming Phoenix 1, Longhua Pinus tabulaeformis 1, Nanshan Xili 1, and Shenshan Cooperation Zone II, with a total construction area of 9 1.0 1 10,000 square meters and a total starting price of/kloc.
So far, 15 city has announced the first batch of land supply plans this year, with a total land supply scale of 4 1.55 million square meters.
The new regulation of "dual centralized" land supply covers four first-tier cities, namely Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as hot cities such as Tianjin, Chongqing, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Xiamen, Hefei, Jinan, Wuhan, Chengdu, Fuzhou, Zhengzhou, Wuxi, Suzhou, Shenyang, Changchun, Ningbo, Qingdao and Changsha. these
According to the statistics of the National Business Daily, there are 1 1 cities whose land supply scale exceeds 30% of the annual land supply area for the first time this year. Among them, Guangzhou's first centralized land supply scale is 62% of the annual land supply area, and Suzhou, Changchun and Shenyang all account for more than 40%.
In addition, the land nature of centralized land supply is not a single commercial housing land, and the leased land has also been highlighted, and the auction rules have also changed.
For example, nearly 40% of the first 30 plots in Beijing involve public rental housing. Previously, Haidian Shucun plot has been trying to bid for the share of property rights, and now it has been popularized and implemented, which makes the bidding methods of Beijing residential land market tend to be diversified.
For the first time in Hangzhou, land supply was concentrated. Except for two cases of leased housing land for talents, all plots were set with new price limit conditions. The average price limit is 26,038 yuan/square meter, and the highest price is 29,227 yuan/square meter. If decoration sales are implemented, the average price limit of decoration is 3327 yuan/square meter.
According to the report of RealData, the centralized land supply in Guangzhou should be mainly based on the supply of property houses and public rental houses. Among them, the upper limit area of public houses and self-occupied houses accounts for 27% of this supply. Among government housing, the upper limit area of * * * property housing is 830,000 square meters, government housing is 740,000 square meters, and public rental housing is 590,000 square meters.
It is also worth mentioning that some cities that are not on the list of 22 cities have also announced to join the ranks of centralized land supply teams.
On April 9, Xuzhou Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice, saying that it should join the "two centralized" land supply city camp no more than four times a year, each time not less than 1 10,000 mu, and the time interval, the number of plots and the location should be relatively balanced; Centralized organization of transfer activities, after listing and publicity, the transaction time shall not exceed 1 working day. Establish the fusion mechanism of soil patches. In the process of land auction and auction, when the premium rate reaches 50% or exceeds the set maximum price limit, online bidding will be suspended and the bidder will be determined by drawing lots.
Prior to this, on March 30th, the Xi Municipal Government issued the Notice of the General Office of the Xi People's Government on Establishing a Real Estate Linkage Mechanism to Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market, which explicitly mentioned that "the announcement of residential land transfer shall be issued quarterly every year, and the state-owned construction land shall be publicly transferred".
Under the new regulations of centralized land supply, how can housing enterprises "grab land"?
The implementation of the new "double centralized" land supply regulations will undoubtedly have a corresponding impact on the land acquisition of housing enterprises in different echelons.
Yu Liang, Chairman of Vanke's Board of Directors, said earlier that this year's new regulations on centralized land supply require great flexibility of corporate funds. Without great flexibility, there will be great pressure in front of centralized land supply.
"Overall, the policy is still positive for enterprises like Longhu. Policies should be beneficial to high-quality real estate practitioners and may put some pressure on highly leveraged companies or small and medium-sized companies. " Shao Xiaoming, CEO of Longhu, also talked about his views on centralized land supply. "The emergence of policies tests the operational capabilities of real estate enterprises, their ability to focus on marketing, and their ability to deliver, from land acquisition, planning and scheme, to construction, to delivery, to customer service, to a series of full chain capabilities."
But SMEs may be relatively difficult. A senior executive of a housing enterprise in a certain region told the reporter of National Business Daily that "centralized land supply still has some pressure on our small and medium-sized housing enterprises. In the face of centralized land supply, we need to compete with many giant housing enterprises and mobilize more resources to participate in land auction at one time. Compared with the head housing enterprises with relatively strong funds, we are undoubtedly in a weak position. Exaggerated, if the first batch of centralized land supply is not grabbed this year, then the second half of the year may face the dilemma of no rice. "
"So in the face of centralized land supply, the way we plan to adopt is to introduce partners, hold a group to warm up, participate in some land auctions, and spread risks." The above real estate executives said.
A hospital report shows that since the pilot of the new financing regulations of "three red lines" last year, the industry has entered the stage of debt reduction and leverage reduction, and sales rebates have become an important source of "returning blood" for enterprises. The implementation of the new regulations on centralized land supply will bring profound changes to the marketing side of enterprises, and the previous sales rhythm and marketing nodes also need to be rearranged to meet the demand for centralized land acquisition funds.
Faced with a large amount of land supply in 22 key cities, how to make a choice under the condition of limited funds requires enterprises to make scientific judgments on urban development trends and plate values. If we focus on following up multiple plots, we need more efficient analysis ability of investment promotion personnel. On the other hand, most of these 22 cities are strategic key layout cities of housing enterprises. If the pace of land supply in these cities is similar, housing enterprises need to accurately judge the potential and market cycle of different regions and cities in order to obtain higher return on investment.
Generally speaking, enterprises with strong financial strength will still get more land acquisition opportunities, while enterprises with high financial pressure may face greater impact and enterprise differentiation will be further intensified. In order to participate more in the auction and improve the probability of successful land acquisition, enterprises can take the form of joint land acquisition and bear the financial pressure.
Qin Hong, former director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and director of the Urban Renewal Research Center of the National Development Research Institute of China Renmin University, said in an interview that although the centralized land supply policy can affect the local auction market in the near future, the most important factor in the market is land supply.
"If it is only a change in the way of land auction, the land supply has not increased, or even the total amount has decreased, then the impact on land prices will be very limited. Only by centralized auction of land in various places can the total land supply increase significantly, and the land price will be affected, and it will remain stable or even decline steadily. Only when the land price remains stable and declining, and the land supply increases, will it be transmitted to the stability of housing prices rather than a sharp rise. " Qin Hong said.
Original title: Changchun started the "first shot" of centralized land transfer: 1 1 suspension of listing, 32 bottom price transactions, only 4 head housing enterprises participated.