Core Tip: Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will take various measures to enhance the support capacity of the Fund. Continue to increase the collection and payment of social insurance; Improve the level of overall planning and implement national overall planning of basic pensions; Further broaden the financing channels and start the investment and operation of endowment insurance funds. In addition, we will increase financial subsidies and allocate state-owned assets to enrich the social security fund to enhance the ability to raise funds.
Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will take various measures to enhance the support capacity of the Fund. Continue to increase the collection and payment of social insurance; Improve the level of overall planning and implement national overall planning of basic pensions; Further broaden the financing channels and start the investment and operation of endowment insurance funds. In addition, we will increase financial subsidies and allocate state-owned assets to enrich the social security fund to enhance the ability to raise funds. Implement the policy of gradually delaying retirement age; Develop a multi-level endowment insurance system and promote the development of enterprise annuities and occupational annuities.
The curtain of a new round of pension insurance reform slowly opened.
According to the timetable set by the National "Two Sessions" this year, the national overall plan for employee pension insurance was introduced during the year; The delayed retirement plan was formulated this year, reported next year and officially launched on 20 17; Together with the announced pension investment operation plan, the merger of government agencies and institutions, and the merger of urban and rural residents' pension insurance, these five reforms constitute the framework for the future reform of China's pension insurance system.
Hu, a professor at the Law and Economic Research Center of China University of Political Science and Law, believes that this series of reforms is a new stage of China's endowment insurance reform since the 1990s.
However, due to China's formal establishment of a unified account pension insurance system in 1997, the current payment failed to meet last year's expenditure. According to last year's expenditure of 1.9 trillion, if new funds are not injected into the overall planning, the current pension stock of 3.5 trillion will be used up in more than ten years.
Comprehensive influence
In 2004, due to the restructuring of local state-owned enterprises, Li Li (pseudonym) was laid off from the silk reeling factory where she worked for 16 years and re-employed in a private enterprise. She only remembers that she received the social security policy when she retired, but she was at a loss about how much money she could get when she retired.
Li Li is only an individual in the wave of system transformation, but she is not the only one who doesn't know how to calculate this account. In the 1990s, due to the economic system reform, a large number of state-owned enterprises closed down, so-called "units" no longer existed, and the original system of relying on unit security was unsustainable, so the old-age insurance system changed from unit security to social security, thus establishing a system of combining social pooling with individual accounts in China.
Zheng Bingwen, director of the World Social Security Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, summed up the reason for the establishment of the current system as "the reform of state-owned enterprises gave birth to the social security system in China" in the article "The Current Situation, Problems and Solutions of the Integration of Inflation and Endowment Insurance in China".
At that time, by introducing individual contributions, a three-pillar model of endowment insurance was established; And through the following two documents, 1995 and 1997, the system of combining unified accounts with unit contributions of 20% and individual contributions of 8% was formally established.
According to the expected goal of the system design, the social pooling part should reflect fairness and implement the pay-as-you-go system; Personal account is part to reflect incentives and implement the accumulation system.
"An old-age insurance system has not achieved its goal after 20 years of operation." In an interview with 265438+20th Century Business Herald, Zheng Bingwen commented that because the shadow of personal account is invisible, the actual personal account has become a part of social planning.
To some extent, the old-age insurance system for employees established by the reform of state-owned enterprises has weak adaptability to private enterprises, migrant workers and other non-state-owned departments that later joined the system.
How big is the invisible gap?
Li Li was also lost when she was about to retire: both the enterprise and herself had already paid the old-age insurance, and everyone was saying that the finance would subsidize the old-age insurance every year. In that case, why is there a funding gap from time to time?
According to the information in Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security Gazette, since the unified account system was established in 1997, the state finance began to subsidize the old-age insurance, from 200 million in that year to 199 168 billion, and then to10/57 billion in 2007, until 20/.
On the other hand, in the balance of accounts, by the end of 20 14, the stock of basic endowment insurance funds for urban workers was 3180 billion yuan, and that for urban and rural residents was 384.5 billion yuan, accounting for about 3.5 trillion yuan.
There seems to be a lot of balance in the total plate, but judging from the current income and expenditure situation, the actual turning point has appeared at 20 14, and the current pension income and expenditure deficit is the first (for details, see "Annual Pension Income and Expenditure Deficit, Exhausted Balance after More than Ten Years of Reform", 5th edition, 21kloc-0/9). This shows that the current revenue and expenditure channels have dried up and rely on some stock funds to operate.
However, what worries scholars more is the problem of invisible debt beyond the clear accounts of pensions. The so-called invisible debt means that the real payment pressure is only postponed, especially when the people who expand the collection enter the retirement stage, the payment gap will become more obvious.
According to the report "Prediction and Calculation of Invisible Debt under the Current Unified Account Combination Mode" issued by China Academy of Social Sciences on 20 14, the invisible debt of social pooling account is 83.6 trillion yuan, that of personal account is 2.6 trillion yuan, and that of urban workers' basic old-age insurance under the unified account combination system is 86.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 20 12.
"In any case, the fact is that the existing intangible debt is still very large." Nie Riming, a researcher at Shanghai Institute of Finance and Law, said in an interview with the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that if such a large-scale gap fails to make ends meet, it will only lead to "large-scale default", or delay retirement and reduce the number of years of receiving pensions; Either inflation will shrink the pension.
In his view, the problem of invisible debt exists. On the one hand, it is to determine the new cost brought by expenditure. Simply understood, regardless of the current income balance, pension payment should be based on the immediate average social wage. This has also brought about an increase in the amount of pension payment units; In addition, due to the increase in the number of pensioners brought about by the aging population, the corresponding level and number of pensioners have increased, which undoubtedly increases the overall payment pressure.
In Nie Riming's view, another deeper problem is the historical cost left over from the system transition of 1997, which has been dragged on until now.
Before the system transition, the old-age insurance for enterprise employees adopted the pay-as-you-go model, and no unit or individual paid the old-age insurance. During the transition from enterprise pension payment to unified account combination mode, this part of the money was not compensated.
At one time, the country tried to solve the problem of empty personal accounts of basic old-age insurance, and tried to make real personal accounts in 13 provinces and cities, but the results were very small.
Take measures to raise funds at the same time
It was originally hoped that the cost of historical transition would gradually decrease with the passage of time. However, as the growth rate of new entrants to the old-age insurance system slows down, the invisible gap is widening at present.
This is more obvious in the provincial balance. According to the final report of the National Social Insurance Fund of the Ministry of Finance in 2009, after deducting the financial subsidies in that year, there were 13 provinces with deficits in the income and expenditure of the basic endowment insurance fund for enterprise employees in that year; In a blink of an eye, by 20 14, the number of deficit provinces has increased to 22. This means that nearly 70% of the provinces in the country have appeared deficit warning.
In Nie Riming's view, the reason why the shortage of funds is getting more and more serious now is that we missed the opportunity of reform.
According to Hu's analysis, from 1997 to now, the old-age insurance is in the process of expanding the collection, and now it basically covers the working population.
Expanding the scope means that the income source of the current endowment insurance will increase. Especially in the old-age insurance system for urban workers, which has not yet digested the transformation cost, the number of participants increased at an average annual rate of 5% in 2002-201year; At the same time, the corresponding current balance is also growing steadily at the rate of 10% every year, and the balance growth rate is above 30% in the six years of 10.
"During the golden period of social security (1055.90,-14,-10,-1.32%), a steady stream of payers came in, providing a stable income for the old-age insurance; Moreover, at that time, China was in the stage of rapid economic development after China's accession to the WTO, and the benefits of state-owned enterprises were also very good, which was just a good time for reform. " Nie Riming said.
He believes that, in contrast, the number of migrant workers who have driven the rapid growth of the number of insured employees in the past 10 years has now begun to slow down.
Recently, Jong Li, a spokesperson for Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, responded to the issue of gradually delaying retirement age and granting pensions in some provinces, saying that since 20 14 years, due to multiple factors, the number of provinces whose current pension expenditure is greater than the fund collection income has increased. The main reason is the continuous improvement of pension benefits and the increase of fund expenditure; The aging effect of the population is gradually emerging, and the growth rate of retirees among the insured is higher than that of the payers; In some areas, support is relatively strong and the burden is relatively heavy.
In the view of He Wenjiong, a professor at Zhejiang University and vice president of China Social Security Society, we should strictly control the basic pension standard for high-security people, stabilize the basic pension standard for middle-security people, improve the basic pension standard for low-security people and correctly guide the public to form rational expectations in accordance with the principle of fairness and the idea of "suppressing peaks and filling valleys".
It is reported that Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will take various measures to enhance the support capacity of the Fund. Continue to increase the collection and payment of social insurance; Improve the level of overall planning and implement national overall planning of basic pensions; Further broaden the financing channels and start the investment and operation of endowment insurance funds.
In addition, we will increase financial subsidies and allocate state-owned assets to enrich the social security fund, so as to enhance the fund-raising ability. Implement the policy of gradually delaying retirement age; Develop a multi-level endowment insurance system and promote the development of enterprise annuities and occupational annuities.
Related news: The accumulated pension balance exceeds 3 trillion, and the financial subsidy exceeds 2 trillion.
A few days ago, the Ministry of Finance announced the final accounts data of the national social insurance fund for 20 14. Overall, the accumulated balance of the national social insurance fund exceeds 5 trillion yuan, and the "family background" is still very thick.
However, the publication of the data triggered a heated discussion in the society, especially about the income and expenditure of the basic endowment insurance fund for enterprise employees, and even some media exclaimed that "the gap between income and expenditure of pensions is very large". So, what is the situation of pension income and expenditure? Is there a "gap" in funds? Is the future pension of the people guaranteed?
Increasing pension benefits and aging population have accelerated the emergence of "invisible debt" in China's old-age insurance system.
Due to the low level of overall planning of endowment insurance funds, although the provincial-level adjustment fund system has been established, in some underdeveloped areas, especially labor export areas, the pressure on pension expenditure is very great, and it is necessary to rely on financial transfer payment to "guarantee payment". After this newspaper reported this situation recently, it aroused people's concern about the problem of providing for the aged under the decline of financial growth.
Excluding financial subsidies, pension insurance expenditure is higher than income, and there will be a gap in the future.
The national social insurance fund budget mainly includes endowment insurance, medical insurance, industrial injury insurance, unemployment insurance, maternity insurance and other funds, which is commonly called "five insurances". Among them, the basic endowment insurance fund for enterprise employees is a "big head", accounting for about 60% of the entire social security fund.
Let's take a look at the relevant data of the basic endowment insurance fund for enterprise employees:
In 20 14, the annual income was 2,327.3 billion yuan, an increase of 1 1.9% over the previous year. Among them, the income from basic old-age insurance was 65.438+087.26 billion yuan, an increase of 654.38+006.5438+0% over the previous year. This year's expenditure was 65.438+09.797 billion yuan, an increase of 654.38+08.6% over the previous year. Among them, the basic pension expenditure1904.5 billion yuan, an increase of 18.4% over the previous year. The balance of revenue and expenditure this year was 347.6 billion yuan, and the accumulated balance at the end of the year was 3,037.6 billion yuan.
"If it is a big account, the total income of the pension fund last year was 2.3 trillion, and the expenditure was less than 2 trillion, making ends meet." Bai Jingming, deputy director of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Finance, analyzed that the balance in that year was 347.6 billion yuan. Together with the accumulated balance in previous years, the total remaining funds exceed 3 trillion, and pension payment should not be a problem.
Because the pension has a balance every year, and the "surplus money" is as high as more than 3 trillion yuan. Why are there repeated reports in the society that pensions are "unable to make ends meet and there is a big gap"?
In fact, the difference lies in the "subsidiary ledger". Some people think that although the total income of endowment insurance last year was 2.3 trillion yuan, if the financial subsidy is excluded, the net income of insurance premium is10.8 trillion yuan, but the expenditure is10.9 trillion yuan, which is obviously "unable to make ends meet". Moreover, the income growth rate is 1 1.9%, and the expenditure growth rate is 18.4%. In this way, the "surplus money" is getting less and less, and there will be a gap in pensions one day.
"The same question, considered in different time periods or under specific conditions, is likely to draw different conclusions." Bai Jingming believes that the current sources of endowment insurance funds are mainly composed of unit contributions, individual contributions and financial arrangements. Together, these three parts of income will inevitably "make ends meet". At this stage, people don't have to worry too much about funds.
With the increase of expenditure factors, it is impossible to achieve balance of payments by increasing payments at this stage, but to promote national overall planning.
The data shows that during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, the expenditure of the basic endowment insurance fund for enterprise employees increased by 18.6% annually, and the income increased by 12% annually, and the expenditure was higher than the income increase by 6.6 percentage points. The proportion of expenditure growth is obviously higher than that of income growth, which means that money flows in slowly and out quickly, and even with financial subsidies, it is difficult to achieve self-circulation.
What are the reasons for the imbalance of pension income and expenditure? "The main reason is that the factors of pension expenditure are increasing, but the collection of pensions has not improved." Zheng Bingwen, director of the World Social Security Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed that our social endowment insurance system was established in the 1990s. Prior to this, enterprises and employees did not pay pension insurance, but these employees will receive pensions after entering the new pension insurance system. As this part of the "old people" gradually entered retirement age, the number of pensioners increased, and the gap caused by non-payment began to appear. In addition, the safety level has been significantly improved in recent years. In 20 15 years, the average monthly basic pension of enterprise employees reached more than 2,200 yuan, which was 1.7 times that of 20 10 years. This expenditure is also increasing.
"The statutory rate of endowment insurance in China is 20% of the wage income paid by enterprises and 8% paid by employees, which is a high level in the world. It is unrealistic to balance the income and expenditure by raising the tax rate. Moreover, if the' holes' caused by the previous generation's failure to pay fees are filled by the next generation, it will cause employees to pay too much, which is unfair in modern times. " Zheng Bingwen said.
It seems that it is difficult to make ends meet by increasing payments, and financial subsidies or their financial support are necessary. In some places, when the pension payment is insufficient, the financial department will make up the "guaranteed payment" and make up the difference. However, such a "bottom" can only save a temporary emergency, and it is more risky in the long run. Because there is no accurate calculation of how much pension is paid, how much it is received, and how much financial compensation is needed. How much to make up, one step at a time, not only is it difficult for finance to "cover the bottom", but the public also feels "bottomless".
Lou Jiwei, Minister of Finance, said that social insurance is closely related to personal interests, and it takes 50 years or even longer for policy design to comprehensively consider changes in population structure. Endowment insurance must adhere to actuarial balance, and the gap cannot be completely left to public finance, but actually to other taxpayers, otherwise it will not only be unfair, but also bring about unsustainable public finance.
The imbalance of pension income and expenditure is more obvious in the "books" of local governments. Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security's Annual Report on the Development of Social Insurance in China (20 14) revealed that in 20 14, employees' pension insurance expenditure in Hebei, Heilongjiang and Ningxia provinces was greater than their income, and the pressure of balance of payments increased. The accumulated pension balance in Guangdong, Shandong, Beijing, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other provinces and cities has exceeded 654.38 billion yuan.
Zheng Bingwen said that in the absence of national overall planning, the annual balance is deposited in developed areas, and the income in underdeveloped areas cannot meet the expenditure, which has caused greater pressure on the finance of underdeveloped areas.
"National pooling of basic pensions is one of the main ways to achieve balance of payments and should be accelerated." Zheng Bingwen believes that according to the current management system, the endowment insurance funds are distributed at the provincial, city and county levels, among which the overall planning units at the city and county levels exceed 1 10,000. The level of overall planning is too low, which is rare in the world. It brings many disadvantages, such as serious regional differentiation of old-age care, difficulty in cross-regional labor mobility, and increased local security risks.
13 years, the financial subsidy pension exceeds 2 trillion.
Jong Li, spokesman of Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said in response to the pension payment in some provinces on the 20th that since 20 14 years, due to multiple factors, the number of provinces whose current pension expenditure is greater than the fund collection income has increased. The main reason is the continuous improvement of pension benefits and the increase of fund expenditure; The aging effect of the population is gradually emerging, and the growth rate of retirees among the insured is higher than that of the payers; In some areas, support is relatively strong and the burden is relatively heavy.
According to statistical bulletins over the years, from 2002 to 20 14, the basic endowment insurance funds subsidized by various levels of finance have exceeded 2 trillion yuan, of which the central government accounts for the main part.
Jong Li said that according to the income and expenditure of the endowment insurance fund, in the first 10 month of this year, the total income of the national fund exceeded the total expenditure by more than 210 billion yuan, and the accumulated fund balance in most provinces exceeded the fund payment for more than 8 months. The operation of the fund is generally stable, which can guarantee the payment of the current pension insurance benefits.
Jong Li said on the 20th that financial subsidies are an important aspect of the current endowment insurance fund financing channels. For a few old industrial base provinces with large historical debts and weak ability to pay funds, the state will continue to increase the central financial subsidies.
Since 1995, when the pension system of "unified account and combined account" was implemented, and 1997, the government has been trying to repay the cost of transition by maintaining high rates and establishing transitional pensions. Judging from the current imbalance of pension income and expenditure, there is not much room for this way.
Although the current collection income of 22 provinces in China is not enough to pay the current expenditure, it will not directly affect the current payment of pensions. The reason is that financial subsidies are the legal financing channels for pensions, and the collection of income must be supplemented by financial subsidies at all levels in order to maintain the balance of pensions.
Since 2002, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has included financial subsidies to the basic old-age insurance fund for urban workers at all levels in the annual statistical bulletin. According to the statistical bulletin, in 2002, the central government subsidized 40.82 billion yuan, and by 20 14, the basic endowment insurance funds subsidized by various levels of finance had reached 354.8 billion yuan.
According to the data published in the statistical bulletin, from 2002 to 2065 13 years, the amount of financial subsidies for pensions at all levels reached 2,074.8 billion yuan.
Judging from the increase in the amount of subsidies, it took nine years from 40 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan. After it broke through 200 billion yuan (227.2 billion yuan) in 20 1 1 year, it broke through 300 billion yuan (31900 million yuan) in 201year. According to the 20 15 national social insurance fund budget published by the Ministry of Finance, the financial subsidy for this year's budget is 36,765,438+200 million yuan.
Judging from the structure of financial subsidies, the central government is the absolute main force. The Annual Development Report of Social Insurance in China released by Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security Social Insurance Management Center in July this year (hereinafter referred to as the report) shows that since 2009, the proportion of central finance in the total income of enterprise-wide pension insurance funds has remained at 12% ~ 13%, while the proportion of local finance is 1% ~ 3%.
Judging from the data published in the report, unlike the substantial increase of the central financial subsidies, the local financial subsidies for pensions showed a slight downward trend, reaching 31800 million yuan in 2009 and 28.2 billion yuan in 20 14.
According to the report, in 20 14, the local subsidy for enterprise pension insurance was 28.2 billion yuan, accounting for 1.2% of the total income. Chongqing, Shanghai, Liaoning, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan and other seven provinces have invested more than 654.38 billion yuan in local finance.
Lou Jiwei, Minister of Finance, said recently that the next step is to enrich the income sources of social insurance funds and gradually increase the proportion of state-owned capital gains turned over to public finance, which will be raised to 30% in 2020. In addition, some state-owned capital will be transferred to enrich the social security fund.
From "Concealing" to "Paying off debts"
At the beginning of the establishment of the system of "unified accounting", this way of dealing with the cost of transformation was called "digestion within the system"
A person who participated in the system design said that the problem of switching cost had been fully considered when choosing the system mode of "unified account combination", and three repayment modes were put forward: first, it was completely borne by the finance; The second is to allocate some state-owned assets; The third is systematic digestion. In view of the poor financial situation at that time and the lack of allocation means of state-owned assets, the third way was finally chosen, which increased the fund income through high rates and made up for personal empty accounts through transitional pensions.
Judging from the current operation of the endowment insurance fund, this "digestion within the system" model has encountered unprecedented difficulties.
As early as 2008, with the support of relevant state departments, Zheng Gongcheng, a professor at China Renmin University, more than 200 experts and professors and more than 200 officials at all levels participated in the completion of "China Social Security Reform and Development Strategy" (hereinafter referred to as "Strategy"). At that time, they had proposed that the transition cost was the bottleneck restricting the reform and healthy development of China's basic old-age insurance.
According to the strategy, under the premise of ensuring the pension payment, the transformation cost is not obvious, but it has brought long-term invisible pressure to the national finance. Although at present, governments at all levels have subsidized the endowment insurance fund to a certain extent, which objectively solved some transformation costs, but its nature and use are not clearly defined, and it is a kind of "implicit supplement" rather than an "explicit supplement".
Li Zhen, a professor of public administration at Renmin University of China, believes that although the financial department has been subsidizing the old-age insurance system from less to more since 2000, the cost of transformation has been fragmented, and no one can tell whether this subsidy is enough to fulfill the government's obligations.
Li Zhen suggested that the government's responsibility should be clarified as soon as possible, the total amount of government responsibility should be calculated, and a repayment mechanism should be established to achieve "debt clearing".
The strategic suggestion is to clarify the responsibility of financial funds to digest the transformation cost as soon as possible, so that the financial subsidy will be changed from implicit subsidy to explicit subsidy, and at the same time, the income from state-owned assets will be used to broaden the solution channels. (End) (Guosou Finance Comprehensive 2 1 Century Business Report, China Business News, People's Daily, etc. )
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