Most bloggers analyze that in the next 10 and 20 years, the teaching profession is likely to usher in a wave of layoffs. After all, the current population is in a state of negative growth. Although there is a great shortage of teachers in some rural areas, the decrease in the number of students in the future will also reduce the number of teachers. However, regarding this issue, personally, Bian Xiao thinks that the wave of layoffs and layoffs is somewhat exaggerated. Looking at 10 year, the whole teaching profession should maintain the status quo. After 20 years, downsizing may be inevitable, but the wave of mass layoffs will not appear. Of course, this can't be synchronized with the teachers and practice teachers of the record system.

The reason why the risk of teaching profession is taken into account is that the fertility rate is declining. In the future, there are fewer and fewer students and fewer teachers, especially since 20 19, the population has shown negative growth. According to relevant statistics, 20117.85 million people were born, but the statistics of 20021year show that the newly born population is only 65438. In other words, in a short period of 10 years, the population has shrunk by 40% on the original basis. The side effects of population decline are not obvious at present, but they may become more and more obvious around 2026.

Bian Xiao believes that the wave of laid-off workers will not appear, because the school is a popular institution after all. It's not like a private enterprise. Once there are economic problems, they will protect their rights and interests through layoffs. The reason why more and more young people flock to the system is that it is relatively stable. Even if the population drops sharply and the number of teachers increases in the future, it is impossible to usher in a large-scale downsizing. Unless the contradiction is particularly acute, for example, the salaries of local teachers are getting lower and lower, there are big financial problems, the pressure of public opinion is even greater, and even schools are empty because there are no students, and teachers have nothing to do but think about downsizing, otherwise the teacher establishment will not change.

In addition, in some remote areas, in fact, teachers' resources are extremely scarce, and few people are willing to teach in those backward small counties, which leads to the local educational resources becoming more and more backward. To sum up, Bian Xiao believes that teachers will not be laid off in the future, but with the reform of education, the entry threshold for future teachers will be raised.