I. Power demand forecast
According to the forecast of the Institute of Finance and Economics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, the demand for primary electricity will maintain a steady growth trend during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", and the average annual growth is expected to reach 6.7-7%. By 20 18, the demand for primary energy and electricity will reach10.4 trillion kwh, and it is expected to reach10.6 trillion kwh by 2020. As far as social electricity consumption is concerned, considering that China is in the middle and late stage of industry, the future social electricity consumption will continue to recover and improve according to the three-stage growth path.
Acquisition stage. In the middle and late period of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the growth rate of China's electricity consumption will remain at around 5.0-7.0%, and the electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 5.7-6.0 trillion kWh.
Recovery phase. China will complete industrialization around 2020 and urbanization around 2030, so it is judged that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society will increase to about 5.5%-7.5% at this stage.
Stable phase. 2020-2030 is in a "stable stage". Since 2020, China's industrialization has been basically completed, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society has slowed down, with an average growth rate of 3.0%-4.0%, and the electricity consumption of the whole society has reached about 10 trillion kWh.
Second, the power supply forecast
During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the investment scale of the national power industry reached 5.3 trillion yuan, including 2.75 trillion yuan for electricity, accounting for 52% of the total investment, and 2.55 trillion yuan for power grid, accounting for 48%. At the same time, the investment structure of power supply is further optimized; Power investment will tilt to the west; Power grid investment is inclined to the main network and distribution network. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the national power investment is expected to reach 3 1 trillion yuan, which is still 2 trillion yuan short of the demand of 5.3 trillion yuan during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. For power companies and the whole industry, the financing demand will continue to expand.
Third, the supervision of the power industry will be further improved.
In the future, the supervision of the power industry will be further strengthened, which is embodied in six aspects: First, do a good job in safety supervision; Second, focus on market access supervision; Third, focus on cost and price supervision; The fourth is to focus on the supervision of power and money transactions; Fifth, focus on supervision of energy conservation and emission reduction; Sixth, focus on the quality supervision of residential electricity service.
Fourth, the reform of the power system will be further deepened.
not yet
In the coming period, the reform of power system will be further deepened. Electricity price reform is still one of the key tasks to deepen economic system reform. Deepen the reform of the price system of resource products, steadily promote the reform of electricity prices, and implement the residential ladder.
The electricity price reform plan, carrying out the pilot reform of bidding and transmission and distribution prices, promoting the classification reform of sales electricity prices, and improving the pricing mechanism of hydropower, nuclear power and renewable energy generation will still be the main reform contents in the next five to 10 years.
Five, energy saving and emission reduction pressure to promote the development of key projects
In the past two years, the frequent policies to promote energy conservation and emission reduction mean that the situation of national energy conservation and emission reduction will be more severe in the future. In particular, how to avoid repeating the mistake of "surprise attack" and achieve the purpose of energy saving and emission reduction is a problem that needs to be focused on. In this context, the following three types of power projects will become the development focus: cogeneration projects, low calorific value coal power generation projects, and distributed power generation projects.
Six, clean energy power generation continued to develop rapidly.
not yet
In the future, in addition to developing clean, efficient and large-capacity coal-fired units, giving priority to the development of cogeneration units in large and medium-sized cities and industrial parks, as well as large-scale pit-mouth coal-fired power stations and coal gangue comprehensive utilization power stations, we will also actively promote the western region
Construction of various types of hydropower stations in southern China; Develop nuclear power efficiently on the basis of ensuring safety; At the same time, it will also strengthen the construction of grid-connected supporting projects and effectively develop wind power; Actively develop new energy sources such as solar energy, biomass energy and geothermal energy.
Seven, the pace of strategic transformation of power enterprises will be accelerated.
follow
With the increasing pressure of energy saving and emission reduction in the power industry in the next few years, the macro-control will slow down the growth rate of electricity consumption, and the increase of electricity price will also make the power competition more intense, and power generation enterprises will face a more severe situation, which is bound to continue.
Promote the strategic transformation of power generation enterprises. On the one hand, the power generation group has established a safe, energy-saving and stable tone for the development of thermal power business; On the other hand, the development of new energy and clean energy will be the focus of transformation.
Eight. New trend of international electricity market development
Although the development characteristics of different countries are different, the common trend is to develop in the direction of low carbon and environmental protection. As the most successful country in electricity market reform, the British government continued to introduce the policy of deepening reform on 20 1 1, and set the goal of realizing non-carbonized power generation in 2050, and issued the corresponding white paper and reform roadmap. At the same time, Australia passed the draft carbon tax legislation and energy white paper in 20 1 1 and 65438+2 respectively, which showed Australia's determination to develop new energy.