The foundation does not fall, and there is nothing in the end.
There should be no such situation as you said. Most funds are equity funds, and the trend of the stock market is related to the rise and fall of the fund's net value. Please pay more attention to the development of the stock market. When the market rebound is coming to an end, throwing money will make your losses smaller! Yesterday, the market continued to rebound significantly. Last night, it was announced that stamp duty had dropped, which may strengthen the rebound. However, people who are used to reading my posts know that I don't like superficial articles and prefer to analyze risks that most people don't want to admit, but I still want to say that this policy does not rule out the possibility of other policies in the future, but we should pay attention to short-term risks. The real reason for this plunge is the huge amount of non-lifting funds and huge additional issuance, not stamp duty. Non-lifting funds have far exceeded the affordability of the main funds, and the main funds can only choose to gradually reduce their positions. Many people think that reducing stamp duty is extremely beneficial, enough to change the trajectory of the stock market and reverse the market, but this idea is a bit one-sided. The incremental funds brought by stamp duty to the market are 200 billion, and the amount of funds to be cashed this year is nearly 3 trillion, which is equivalent to the size of the main funds in the whole market, and this is just the beginning. In 2009,065,438+00, the amount of non-lifted funds will enter the circulation market many times, and the size is the fundamental issue. Most importantly, it was originally intended to let the market digest the size, not the government to pay the bill. Even if the central government solves such a huge amount of money, it is hard for the central government to afford it! Some experts suggest that the government can do four things to save the market. First, reduce stamp duty, which has been done now. However, some people have analyzed that the amount of 200 billion is not enough to support the scale of nearly 3 trillion. Divide the state-owned restricted shares into the social security fund, and let them insist on value investment and hold them for a long time. (There is a problem. The number of state-owned restricted shares is large and the amount of funds is huge. If the state formulates policies to force such shares to be transferred to the social security fund to prevent such shareholders from cashing out, if the social security fund is allowed to buy such funds in the form of purchase, there will be a problem that money is far from enough. Third, follow the example of the Hong Kong SAR Government in handling the Asian financial crisis and set up a stabilization fund (which needs money). Fourth, follow the example of the Federal Reserve and directly inject capital into investment institutions such as securities companies to expand the market demand for stocks (this still requires money, and maintaining social stability requires huge capital investment. It is not realistic for the state to save the stock market with fiscal revenue. Therefore, before the measures and policies to truly solve the problem of non-size are introduced, the main force will see clearly. If the substantive problems are not solved, it will still lead to the disintegration of the main funds under the pressure of non-gradual selling. Now that the rescue policy has come out, we must follow suit in a short time. It is wise for the organization to pull the boat. Big money is also invested in the stock market to make money, not to be a long-term shareholder. Therefore, it is now suggested that stamp duty is a good news for the main organization, Shipa. Before the substantive policy comes out, the main institutions will always be alert to the size of the market and dare not expand the market. The bigger it is, the worse the main fund will die. The previous bear market was also caused by the reduction of state-owned shares. Due to the reduction of stamp duty during the bear market in June 5438+ 10, 2005, the main force shipped again after a certain increase, and the market fluctuated again and hit a new low. The real reversal of the market is that the state has issued a policy prohibiting the reduction of state-owned shares. The present situation is somewhat similar to that at that time, so you can refer to it carefully. 3300 is still a turning point for bulls and bears. After breaking through 3000 points, it triggered a wave of bargain-hunting funds, but don't forget that many parties had absolute short-term advantages when they broke through 3300~3400 points last time. In the end, the main force used fake news to ship, which was in line with the main shipping characteristics. Stimulated by the tax reduction policy, short-term funds went crazy. The 20-day moving average of the market I mentioned many times before is enough to successfully recover the 20-day moving average and stand firm, breaking through the 30-day moving average of 35 1 1. As long as the market outlook can hold the 30-day moving average, under the inertia of funds, the market still has a chance to hit 3950. However, if the impact fails, please pay attention to lightening positions on rallies to prevent the profit-taking of short-term funds and the comprehensive pressure of institutions selling chips and sizes again. Investors can choose the point of lightening their positions on rallies according to the strength of the rebound, and when the market rebound is weak, it is the time to go out. On the evening of 20th, the Political Supervision Committee suddenly held a press conference, and Vice Chairman Yao Gang issued "Guiding Opinions on the Transfer of Restricted Shares of Listed Companies" to regulate the lifting of the ban on restricted shares after the share reform. Han Zhiguo, director of Beijing Banghe Wealth Research Institute, basically summed up the function of this opinion, which can only lead to a short-term rebound rather than a turning point, because this opinion has two major defects: 1. If you want to sell 0.99% of the banned shares within one month, you can avoid this restriction, and 0.99% within one month is 1 1.88% within one year, far exceeding. 2. If investors find someone to take over in the bulk market and then go to the A-share market immediately, they can avoid this guidance. So such a provision is a long-term negative. However, the opinion that the controlling shareholder of a listed company may not transfer the restricted shares within 30 days before the announcement of the company's annual report and semi-annual report, which seems to restrict its transfer on the surface, is actually a cover for the non-reduction of the size. In the first 30 days of the annual report and semi-annual report, if the size of non-reduction is recorded in the report, the action of reducing the size of non-reduction will be exposed, and the quarterly report of 1 will appear between the annual report and semi-annual report, which means that the ban cannot be lifted through report supervision within three months. However, in a weak state, a small negative news may be magnified several times because of panic. Please be alert to the retail friends who have been involved, and always pay attention to whether there is any bad news coming out again. Now you should follow the trend, don't be a dead cow and a dead bear, just be a diaosi. It is purely a personal opinion, please adopt it carefully. good luck