Keywords: TC index of international competitiveness of agricultural products, suggestions on subsidies for agricultural products
After China's accession to the WTO, the trade in agricultural products will be conducted under the framework of the multilateral trading system of the WTO, and the provisions of relevant agreements will be observed. Experts generally believe that after China's entry into the WTO, China's agricultural products will be affected to some extent. Although the impact of China's entry into WTO in 2002 was not as obvious as expected, in the long run, the impact of China's entry into WTO on agricultural products is inevitable when China's agriculture still maintains its current level. In the third year of China's entry into WTO (2004), China has changed from a net exporter of agricultural products to a net importer of agricultural products. The impact of China's agricultural products on the international market due to their weak competitiveness has begun to appear, and it is undoubted that agriculture needs support, which is also a common practice in all countries in the world. In view of the weak competitiveness of agricultural products, it is an urgent problem to seek effective subsidies.
First, the status of China's agricultural exports
China is a traditional agricultural country, and the import and export trade of agricultural products occupies a very important position in the whole import and export trade. For a long time, the trade surplus of agricultural products import and export is an important source of China's international trade surplus. From 1996 to 200 1, the total trade surplus of agricultural products in China was 3.429 billion US dollars, 5.002 billion US dollars, 5.473 billion US dollars, 5.33 billion US dollars and 444 US dollars respectively. In recent years, China's agricultural products import and export trade has the following characteristics:
(a) The growth of agricultural exports is slow, and its proportion in total exports is declining.
Since the late 1980s, the output of major agricultural products in China has surpassed that of the United States, making it the largest exporter of agricultural products in the world. However, the proportion of agricultural products exported by China has been declining, from 6.3% in 2000 to 3.9% (see table 1). The reason is that the export growth rate of agricultural products in China is limited, far less than that of manufactured goods. From 1980 to 2000, the export of agricultural products in China increased by 6.8% annually, while the average growth rate of industrial exports reached 17.4% in the same period.
(2) The export of agricultural products began to turn from surplus to deficit.
In 2004, although the import and export volume of agricultural products in China both increased, the increase of imports greatly exceeded the increase of exports, and the surplus of the previous year turned into a deficit, making it a net importer of agricultural products. The specific performance is as follows:
1, the export of land-intensive bulk agricultural products decreased significantly, while the import increased significantly.
Grain (excluding soybeans) exports decreased significantly, while imports increased significantly, showing a net import pattern, from the net export of19910.7 million tons in the previous year to the net import of 4.958 million tons; The import and export of edible oil seeds decreased, the import and export of edible vegetable oil increased, and the trade deficit widened; Imports of cotton and sugar increased, exports declined, and the trade deficit widened.
2. Double growth in the import and export of labor-intensive agricultural products.
Both the import and export of vegetables and fruits have increased, both of which are trade surpluses; The import and export of livestock products and aquatic products increased, the trade deficit of livestock products expanded, and the trade surplus of aquatic products expanded.
Second, China agricultural trade competitiveness analysis
An indicator to measure the international competitiveness of the trade industry is the trade competition index (TC index), also known as the trade specialization coefficient (TSC), which indicates the proportion of a country's import and export trade balance in the total import and export trade:
TC index = (export-import) ÷ (export+import)
The bigger the index, the stronger the competitiveness.
The scope of agricultural products to which WTO Agreement on Agriculture applies includes all products except fish and fish products in the first 24 chapters of HS (Harmonized System), and the other 25 products are listed separately. Since 1992, China has been using the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS system for short) which conforms to international standards. Therefore, in order to facilitate statistics and calculation, the author uses the import and export data of commodities in the first 24 chapters of HS system, and the calculated TC index is shown in the attached table.
As can be seen from the table, if the competitiveness standard is 0.5, in 2002, only the products with chapters 0 1, 05, 07, 10, 16, 19, 20 and 22 (8 chapters in total) have strong international competitiveness. If we take 0.4 as the standard,
(A) Analysis of TC index of agricultural products in China shows that the competitiveness of agricultural products in China has the following characteristics:
1. Labor-intensive primary products, such as livestock products, aquatic products, vegetables and fruits, have strong competitive advantages. Chapters 1, 5, 7 and 20 in the table belong to this category.
2. The international competitiveness of land-intensive agriculture (mainly including corn, wheat, soybeans, cotton, oilseeds and oilseed crops) and commodities (such as sugar, cocoa and cocoa products) is relatively low, as shown in chapters 12, 17 and 18 in the table.
3. The international competitiveness of processed products and non-edible agricultural raw materials is relatively low, such as the third category in the table, chapter 14 and chapter 23.
The international competitiveness of China's agricultural products shows such characteristics, which is closely related to China's resource endowment. Comparing the three elements of land, capital and labor, China has obvious comparative advantages in labor resources, but the per capita capital and land ownership cannot be compared with other countries. Moreover, the per capita arable land area in China shows an accelerated downward trend. Therefore, relatively speaking, labor-intensive agricultural products, especially food, have great advantages in export. Generally speaking, the competitiveness of livestock products, fruits and vegetables products is higher than that of bulk agricultural products in China, especially the export competitiveness of fresh agricultural products such as aquatic products, vegetables and fruits, which are less dependent on land and consume more manpower. China's silk products, fresh water products, vegetables and tea occupy a high share in the international market. Pig, cattle and sheep, which are typical capital-intensive and land-intensive products, have obvious disadvantages in raising large livestock; The export of dairy products and eggs, sugar, sugar products, honey and feed (excluding unground grains) in food is also not dominant. In addition, due to the backward overall level of agricultural science and technology in China, the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology is low, the added value of agricultural products is small, and the adaptability in the international market is not strong, which is easily hindered by trade barriers.
(B) from the perspective of specific products
1, grain
Food products are mostly land-intensive products, and China is a land-scarce country. Agricultural production is mainly intensive cultivation, and the scale and mechanization of agricultural production are still low. Although the grain output ranks in the forefront of the world, this labor-intensive mode of production can no longer adapt to the development of grain production, and the competitiveness of staple food varieties such as wheat, corn and soybean is relatively small. Although China's grain export reached a record high in 2003, reaching 22.004 million tons, with a net export of 1.6 1.59 million tons, in the long run, China's grain has no comparative advantage. From the perspective of ensuring food security and saving land resources, China's grain production is mainly to meet the domestic market, and it is impossible and inappropriate to export in large quantities in the future. On the contrary, land-intensive products such as grain and cotton will need to be imported.
2. Non-food products with advantages
Non-grain dominant products mainly include peanuts, tea, vegetables and fruits, aquatic products and meat, especially vegetables, fruits and aquatic products, which belong to a large category and cover a wide range. The advantages of China are very obvious.
However, the export of China's dominant agricultural products is too concentrated, which is greatly influenced by the external environment: before joining WTO, it was restricted by the importing countries' emergency import of China's agricultural products; After China's entry into WTO, the price advantage of China's agricultural products in the international market has been fully reflected, but the number of times of encountering technical barriers to trade has obviously increased. A survey conducted by the Ministry of Commerce in 2003 showed that 89.7% of the export industries of food native products and livestock products were affected by technical barriers to trade, 82% of enterprises said that they had reduced their market share, while 35% of enterprises were squeezed out of the market.
3. Non-food products without advantages
These products mainly include feed, sugar, tobacco, pork, beef, mutton, animal and vegetable oils, cotton and milk. Although China has a weak comparative advantage in terms of total meat, it does not have an advantage in the production of cattle, sheep, pigs and other large livestock. The export of livestock products accounts for a low proportion in the export of agricultural products in China, mainly because the aquaculture industry in China is still dominated by family farming and has not formed a scale.
(C) from the perspective of export structure
China is dominated by primary products with low degree of processing and little added value, with the proportion of primary agricultural products reaching 80% and deep-processed products only 20%, while the proportion of primary agricultural products and deep-processed products exported by the Netherlands, a world agricultural exporter, is 25% and 75% respectively. According to the analysis and calculation of relevant parties, the processed products of agricultural products in developed countries account for more than 90% of their total output, and the output value increases by 2-3 times after processing and transformation; However, China's processed agricultural products only account for about 25% of its total output, and the processing output value only increases by about 30%.
From the attached table, except for the TC index in chapter 10, the TC index of most products has been declining continuously, which shows that the competitiveness of agricultural products cannot be improved by itself under the condition of unchanged domestic support and protection of agricultural products.
It is precisely because China's agricultural products have the above characteristics that they have the following disadvantages in the international market:
1, weak adaptability to market demand.
Adaptability to market demand also refers to the adaptability of agricultural products to market demand. The market demand of agricultural products can be determined by many factors, such as consumer income, consumption tendency, variety and quality of agricultural products, etc. Therefore, only by producing different agricultural products for different levels of consumers and meeting the market demand can we be able to resist market risks. However, for a long time, the varieties and grades of agricultural products in China were single and lacked market adaptability. Once the other country implements trade barriers, farmers in China will suffer huge losses.
2. The market share is not strong.
For a long time, China's agricultural products have won mainly by traditional price and quality in the international market, and have not yet formed brand competitiveness. At present, there is a buyer's market in China's agricultural products market, and high-quality service and rich and diverse marketing methods have also become important factors to occupy the market. Once the brand competitiveness is formed, price and quality become secondary factors, while the quality and reputation of agricultural products brands become the main factors, and their market share is also strengthened.
Third, China agricultural subsidy policy recommendations
It is estimated that 28 jobs can be created for each export of agricultural products of 1 10,000 US dollars (Guoqiang Cheng, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center), and the export of agricultural products in China directly solves the employment of160,000 rural laborers every year. The export of agricultural products has become the main source of farmers' income in some areas, such as Yantai and Weifang in Shandong Province. About one-third to one-half of farmers' increased income comes from the export of agricultural products. In 2005, the tariff level of agricultural products in China will be reduced to 15.35%, while the average tariff level of agricultural products in the world is 62%. China will become one of the countries with the lowest tariffs in the world, and the trade of agricultural products will face greater pressure. Once the trade deficit continues to grow, it will inevitably bring a great impact on China's agriculture and farmers' employment. Therefore, we must strive to find effective ways to make full use of the "green box subsidy" and "yellow box subsidy" policies of WTO to cultivate the export competitiveness of China's agricultural products.
In the middle and late 1990s, China implemented a large-scale price and circulation intervention policy for agricultural products such as grain and cotton. However, this kind of intervention has the nature of protective subsidies to a certain extent, which violates WTO rules. In 2004, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council successively issued a series of agricultural subsidies and support policies, such as agricultural tax reduction and exemption, direct grain subsidies, improved varieties subsidies, subsidies for large agricultural machinery and tools, and the minimum purchase price of rice, which played an important role in policy support and guidance for mobilizing farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and promoting grain recovery growth. Combined with the international competitiveness of China's agricultural products, the author believes that subsidies for agricultural products should be tilted in several aspects:
1, subsidies should be tilted to improve the deep processing and finishing capacity of agricultural products.
In terms of output, China's output of major agricultural products, such as grain, fruit, meat and milk, has been in the forefront of the world and has become a veritable agricultural power. However, judging from the total agricultural output value, especially the output value of agricultural products processing and export earnings, there is still a huge gap between China and the world's advanced level. It has been analyzed that agricultural products with labor-intensive characteristics, such as vegetables, fruits, horticultural products and meat products, have strong international competitiveness in China, but their processed products are not competitive enough in the international market, and the demand for these primary products is inelastic. Changes in supply and demand in the international market can easily have a great impact on them, thus coping with the lack of flexibility in the international market. At this level, improving processing capacity can spread export risks and meet various needs of the international market.
The ratio of the processing output value of agricultural products to the agricultural output value in developed countries is mostly above 2.0-3.7: 1, while in China it is only 0.43: 1. Taking food as an example, the output value of food industry in developed countries is 1.5-2 times that of agriculture, while that in China is less than 1/3, which shows the potential of agricultural products processing in China. Improving the processing capacity of agricultural products and extending the agricultural industrial chain are effective ways to improve the economic benefits of agricultural products and enhance international competitiveness.
2 subsidies should be tilted to improve the scientific and technological content of agricultural products.
China's traditional agricultural products are typical primary products with low scientific and technological content, which win by price in the international market. In the long run, to improve the international competitiveness of agricultural products, we must take the road of rejuvenating agriculture through science and technology. First of all, technology is the guarantee of quality. The quality of a considerable number of agricultural products in China cannot meet the increasing market demand. At present, the comprehensive quality rate of agricultural products in China is about 15%, and the quality rate of grain products is generally about 10%, which seriously affects the competitiveness in the international market. Secondly, science and technology are the means to improve labor productivity. Take American corn as an example. During the 20 years from 1975 to 1994, the sown area has not changed obviously, but the yield has increased by three quarters. The yield per hectare has increased from 5,460 kg to 8,830 kg, which is inseparable from mechanization and specialization in the United States. At present, in developed countries such as the United States, corn is developing in the direction of specialization and high added value. The development of corn varieties with high lysine, high oil and high crotonic acid has achieved good development in the United States and has strong competitiveness in the international market. At the same time, due to the low contribution rate of agricultural science and technology in China, the marginal output brought by increasing agricultural science and technology and capital investment will be very prominent.
As has already been analyzed, the per capita land resources in China are relatively poor. To increase income, we must rely on science and technology to improve labor productivity and output value. Therefore, promoting agricultural science and technology revolution, promoting the combination of traditional technology and high technology, improving agricultural science and technology innovation ability and scientific and technological content of agricultural products, increasing the added value of agricultural products, realizing the transformation of agricultural products into high quality and high technology, and promoting the sustainable development of agriculture while reducing production costs is another way to improve the competitiveness of agricultural products in China.
3, subsidies to improve the quality of workers tilt.
The application of scientific and technological achievements and the improvement of processing capacity depend on the improvement of the quality of workers, and the low-quality labor force is an important factor hindering the comparative advantage of agriculture [1]. In the article Comparative Advantage in World Agricultural Trade, Liu Yongjun used regression model to analyze the influence of high-quality labor on agricultural comparative advantage. As far as specific products are concerned, high-quality labor has a significant positive impact on grains, oilseeds and cotton, and also has a positive impact on meat. Therefore, improving the quality of agricultural workers and increasing investment in human capital are the keys to maintain the comparative advantage of agricultural products and further enhance their international competitiveness.
Only high-quality farmers can understand, master and apply high-tech products and technologies in agricultural development. In this regard, we can organize farmers' training and education, realize science and technology going to the countryside, improve farmers' skills and ensure the quality of agricultural products.
4. Establish a perfect service system for export subsidies of agricultural products.
After China's entry into WTO, the agricultural products market has been further opened to the outside world, the interaction between domestic and foreign markets has deepened, and the market competition has become increasingly fierce. Traditional quality and price competition has no advantage. Establishing a perfect marketing network and implementing brand strategy is the key for agricultural products to stand on the international market. At present, the small and medium-sized enterprises whose annual export value of agricultural products is less than 1 10,000 dollars account for more than 70% of all export enterprises. These enterprises have entered the export market of agricultural products for a short time, with small scale of operation, weak anti-risk ability and poor information channels. At the same time, the international agricultural products market is changing rapidly, and technical barriers to trade such as import inspection and quarantine requirements are increasing. It has become a key task to master this information in time, quickly and accurately, and the cost of obtaining this information for every enterprise is very high. Therefore, it is particularly necessary for government departments to provide agricultural export policies and market information.
In short, we should focus on implementing the agricultural product subsidy policy, guide the rational allocation of resources, make the policy play a baton role in adjusting the industrial structure optimization of agricultural products, and finally improve the brand competitiveness of agricultural products in the international market; At the same time, subsidies should provide information and service support for further unblocking agricultural product sales channels and expanding agricultural product sales.
refer to
1, China Agricultural Information Network, Analysis of Import and Export Trade of Agricultural Products in China in 2004 (Ministry of Agriculture)
2. China Economic Information Network, 2004 China Industry Annual Report.
3. Liu Yongjun, 2004, Comparative Advantage of World Agricultural Trade.
4. Liu Chunxiang, Yan Guoqing, Chen Lijing: Empirical Analysis of Comparative Advantage and Competitiveness of Agricultural Products in China, International Trade Issues, 2004(4)
5. Wang Xiaoying, Wang Sumei: "Research on the competitiveness of agricultural products in China after China's entry into WTO", in Productivity Research, 2003 (1).
6. Huang Hanquan, etc. : "Strengthening agricultural protection and improving the competitiveness of agricultural products in China", Economic Research Reference, 2004(74).
7. Ke Bingsheng: Improving the Competitiveness of Agricultural Products: Theory, Current Situation and Policy Suggestions, in Agricultural Economic Issues, No.2, 2003.
8. Guoqiang Cheng: WTO Agricultural Rules and Agricultural Development in China, China Economic Publishing House, 2000.
9. Tang Zhengping and Zheng Zhihai: WTO Entry and Opening of Agricultural Products Market, China Foreign Economic and Trade Press, 2000.
10, Yang Pengfei et al., WTO Legal Rules and China Agriculture, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Press, 2000.
1 1, D. World Trade Organization and Agricultural Policy, China Financial and Economic Press, 2004.
12, Liuli, Meng Hui: WTO and agricultural development countermeasures in China, Party School Press of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, 200 1.
Note: the chapters in the table are: the first kind of living animals; Animal products; Chapter 065438 +0 live animals; Chapter 02 Meat and edible chop suey; Chapter 03 Fish, crustaceans, mollusks and other aquatic invertebrates; Chapter 04 Dairy products; Eggs; Natural honey; Other edible animal products; Chapter 05 Other Animal Products; The second kind of plant products; Chapter 06 Living trees and other living plants; Bulbs, roots, etc. Clustered leaves used for flower arrangement and decoration; Chapter 07 Edible vegetables, roots and tubers; Chapter 08 Edible fruits and nuts; Peel of melon or citrus fruit; Chapter 09 Coffee, tea, Paraguayan tea and spices; Chapter 65438 +00 capsules; Chapter 1 1 milling industrial products; Malt; Starch; Inulin; Gluten; Chapter 12 Oil-bearing kernels and fruits; Miscellaneous seeds and fruits; Industrial or medicinal plants; Straw, straw and feed; Chapter 13 shellac; Gums, resins and other plant liquids and juices; Chapter 14 Plant materials for knitting; Other plant products; The third kind of animals, vegetable oils, fats and their decomposition products; Refined edible oil and fat; Animal and vegetable waxes; Chapter 15 Animal and vegetable oils, fats and their decomposition products; Refined edible oil and fat; Animal and vegetable waxes; The fourth kind of food; Drinks, wine and vinegar; Tobacco, tobacco and tobacco substitute products; Chapter 16 Products of meat, fish, crustaceans, mollusks and other aquatic invertebrates; Chapter 17 sugar and sugar food; Chapter 18 Cocoa and Cocoa Products; Chapter 19 cereals, cereal flour, starch or dairy products; Cake snacks; Chapter 20 Products of vegetables, fruits, nuts or other parts of plants; Chapter 265438 +0 omnivore; Chapter 22 drinks, wine and vinegar; Chapter XXIII Residues and wastes from the food industry; Formulated animal feed; Chapter 24 Tobacco, Tobacco and Tobacco Substitute Products; )
About the author: Zhang Yonghua, female, is now a 2003 graduate student of the Department of International Economics and Trade of Nankai University. Her research direction is service trade.
Zhang Shengmin, female, lecturer, School of Economics, Henan University. Research direction: fiscal and taxation theory.
Contact information: Room 20, Room 435, Nankai University, Tianjin, zip code: 30007 1 Tel: 022-23505326.