Time: 202165438+1October 24th.
Venue: Benben Finance Business School
Character: Billions of Kerr
Investment and financial management is a compulsory course for us, and it is what we must learn.
How much money do you have and how do you invest it? Let's see if your money is in the right place first, and then let's see how to invest it. For a family, it doesn't mean that all the money at home is used for investment appreciation. How to allocate the money at home is the most reasonable.
There are various distribution methods in various financial books. We can also study it. Benben Business School has several simplest classifications:
In the S&P family assets quadrant, the horizontal axis and the vertical axis are divided into four parts.
Think of it as four accounts or four baskets, and we put all our money in these four baskets. Because money is used for different purposes, whether it can be invested or not is different.
Basket 1: put the usual money first. Used to meet our daily basic consumption such as food, shelter and transportation. One of the biggest characteristics of this money is that it requires extremely high liquidity.
You can't say that you can't buy a pack of cigarettes and a bottle of soy sauce until you sell the stock, can you?
Therefore, if you want to invest, it is best to use the money in the bank demand deposit and the money fund to invest, and ask for access at any time; With the money fund, the interest rate will be slightly higher than this demand deposit, and the income can be seen every day. This part of the money, generally enough to stay at home for 3~6 months of living expenses, generally accounts for 10% of family assets, which is a reasonable proportion.
The second basket should be some life-saving money. Some funds are used for some living security consumption, and a family must have at least 20% funds for this kind of living security consumption; For example, on the basis of this five insurance and one gold, buy some extra commercial insurance, critical illness insurance, life insurance, accident insurance and so on for your family.
Let me talk about the professional topic of insurance. There may be some unexpected situations. Some reserves should be set aside to deal with these sudden use of money. This part of the money, we can also do some financial management with better liquidity like the money we usually spend. But be careful, don't send flowers, keep them for special purposes.
The third basket: put money that can make money. And it is money that can get higher returns. This high-yield product is just like stocks, funds and other products that can obtain high-yield and floating income. However, for this kind of floating income product, high income is accompanied by high risk, and the professional requirements for us will be higher.
So when you do this part of the investment, you must have a good attitude towards this part of the investment and have the corresponding professional investment knowledge. This part of the money can account for up to 30% of the family assets.
The last basket is the most important, because ordinary people still hope to manage their finances steadily and reasonably, not losing money, but fighting inflation.
The fourth basket: money used to protect capital appreciation. This money can be invested in some less risky things, such as trusts, bonds, funds and so on. So as to get some stable and fixed income with peace of mind. This part of the money accounts for the largest proportion of the whole family assets, accounting for 40%.
It is equivalent to effectively combining investment tools with guaranteed income and investment tools without guaranteed income to hedge risks and ensure the effective preservation and appreciation of our assets.
The above is the allocation method of four baskets given in the quadrant chart of family assets of Standard & Poor's, and it is also the principle of family assets allocation that we often say 1234.
For each family's different assets, asset scale, anti-risk ability and the age of family members, it is necessary to analyze and treat each family's asset allocation plan differently. This is the simplest principle of 1234. Can be used as a basic reference.
The guiding ideology is asset allocation model (we often say, don't put eggs in one basket).
This model is also called mean-variance model.
It is a risk measurement model proposed by Harry Markowitz in 1952. This theory is the founder and core of modern portfolio theory.
Markowitz, an American economist, found that 90% of the investors who participated in the investment were unfortunately thrown out because of investment failure, and only 10% of the investors survived!
What did these 10% lucky people do right? -Based on this research theory, markowitz finally won the Nobel Prize in Economics with two other economists. This theory is: asset allocation theory.
"Asset allocation theory" is an investment method to develop diversified investment portfolio. It is to consider various assets such as stocks, bonds or cash according to the proportion and location of changes and make diversified investments.
The average, that is, the expected rate of return, if you are facing three types of assets now, the rates of return you can bring are 20%, 10% and 5% respectively.
If the investable funds are evenly distributed among these three types of assets, then your expected rate of return = (20%+10%+5%)/3 =11.67%.
And if you allocate funds according to the ratio of 2:2: 1, then your expected rate of return is equal to 20% × 2 ÷ 5+10% × 2 ÷ 5+5% ×1247; 5% =13%.
Variance is a measure of the risk of the whole portfolio, that is, the degree to which the return deviates from the expected return.
Every asset has investment risks. Generally speaking, the higher the rate of return, the greater the risk.
For example, different capital ratios can bring different investment portfolios and corresponding investment returns. In fact, the risks between the two portfolios are different.
There are differences in variance, and the model also considers the correlation of risks among various assets. For example, the dollar and gold generally speaking, the dollar rises and the price of gold tends to fall.
For another example, stocks and bonds are two alternative investment products. When the overall social capital supply is relatively stable, if the stock market is favorable, funds will flood into the stock market, resulting in a relative decrease in bond investment funds, and vice versa.
After defining the basic concept, we can make countless attempts on the portfolio, get countless different combinations of mean and variance, and finally get a feasible portfolio boundary. At this time, we can choose which combination to implement according to our own situation.
Nowadays, investment and financial management has become a necessity in people's daily life, and many people have begun to set foot in asset allocation to preserve and increase the value of family assets. In the face of various investment projects with different risks, how to make rational allocation and scientific financial management, so as to make the return and risk of investment reach the best balance point?
Usually the steps are as follows:
1. Before allocating family assets, the most basic thing is to make an inventory of family assets and understand the current income sources, income types and distribution, expenditure classification, current assets list, etc. Because only know the income, existing asset type and amount, expenditure, etc. In order to carry out the next asset allocation.
2. Because the allocation of family assets is a long-term work, it needs to be matched with the family financial management goals, such as how long it takes to achieve what financial management goals, and matching the goals with income and expenditure and assets, in order to make a reasonable allocation plan for family assets.
3, according to the actual situation of the family, set up a part for daily expenses. As a family living expense, this part of the money usually exists in the form of current savings or monetary funds, and the expenses of food, clothing, housing and transportation for each family member come from it.
4, and then set up funds for the part of the value, accounting for about 20%-30% of the total. This money is used to protect the family's value, to deal with inflation, accidents and major diseases, usually in the form of bonds, trusts and insurance.
5. Part of the investment funds are money used by families to increase their value. This part is used to increase the value of family assets, which is usually the best investment form for families, such as stocks and funds.
6. The last part of the allocation is the long-term allocation of family assets, which is a long-term investment account, including pension and children's education. Because it is a long-term account, it needs to be relatively safe and has a moderate rate of return, usually in the form of index funds and real estate fixed investment.
Next, I would like to share with you several rules that can be referenced in the process of asset allocation:
1, financial management rule 72
This law can quickly calculate the relationship between financial income and time.
If we have a wealth management with an annual interest rate of X% and compound interest, then divide 72 by X, and the figure is the number of years required to double the sum of principal and interest.
For example, you now have 65,438+million in the bank, with an annual interest rate of 6%, and the interest is rolling every year. How long does it take to change the deposit into 200 thousand? 72 divided by 6 is the answer, which is 12 years.
2,4321rule
"432 1 rule" is an investment rule summarized by people in long-term financial planning, which is used to guide people to allocate funds when investing. Its contents are as follows:
40% of income is used for investment, creating wealth and increasing wealth. Such as buying real estate, financial insurance products, stocks or funds. ;
30% of income is used for family living expenses to ensure basic living consumption needs;
20% of the proceeds are used for bank deposits or high-liquidity instruments to protect the proceeds, and they are committed to maintaining the value of wealth while having quick liquidity;
10% of the proceeds are used for insurance planning and life risk management.
"432 1 rule" is a practical investment rule, and it is reasonable to consume family finance according to this rule.
3. The three golden principles of asset allocation
The asset allocation that conforms to the "Three Golden Principles" is more scientific, balanced, steady and high in gold content.
These three principles are cross-asset class allocation, cross-regional country allocation and alternative asset allocation.
Cross-asset class allocation, that is, "put eggs in different baskets". In the investment portfolio, five types of assets should be included: insurance protection assets, fixed income, real estate finance, secondary market and private equity venture capital.
Different types of assets have different risk and return matching. Scientific allocation and matching of different types of assets can achieve the effect of balancing risks and benefits.
Of course, this kind of investment has certain thresholds and requirements for everyone.
However, if you want to connect with the international market and improve asset returns, the best choice is to invest across regions, hold multiple currencies and spread exchange rate risks.
Alternative asset allocation:
Alternative asset allocation can obtain high returns, but the associated risk coefficient is relatively high, represented by private equity, venture capital and parent fund. This kind of asset allocation is more suitable for high-risk groups with high risk preference and large asset coefficient.
4.80 law
Rule 80 is a rule to predict the investment risk tolerance. In this law, the proportion of venture capital depends on age. The specific rule is: 80 minus age is the reasonable proportion of high-risk investment in total assets.
? High-risk investable amount =(80- I am 48 years old) * 100% = 32%
So in the 80 Law: For a 60-year-old person, what is the reasonable proportion of high-risk investment in total assets?
? Results: (80-60)* 100%=20%
So: the proportion of high-risk assets is inversely proportional to age.
Because with the growth of age, people's ability to resist risks decreases, and the proportion of venture capital needs to be gradually reduced. As a long-term financial management tool, the proportion of insurance should be gradually increased.
5. Double 10 law
The annual premium should account for110 of the annual household income;
The insured amount should be 10 times the annual income.
Of course, premium and insured amount are two different concepts.
When making scientific, reasonable and effective customization and evaluation of personal and family insurance planning, we should fully refer to the insurance principle of "Double 10 Law". With adequate insurance protection, when risks come, the family's wealth will be very resilient.
Therefore, no matter what kind of investment you make, the concept of asset allocation must go first.
In the attribution analysis of investment profits, more than 90% of profits are determined by reasonable asset allocation forms.
Therefore, scientific asset allocation is the key to the success of long-term investment.
Only by establishing a correct investment concept can we have a strong investment logic and make the most rational investment decision.
Of course, for every family, asset allocation also includes the allocation of liquid-solid ratio (current assets and fixed assets).
Commercial-residential ratio distribution (real estate industry only)
Debt allocation (such as short-term debt and long-term debt allocation, high-cost debt and low-cost debt allocation)
At the same time, asset allocation must be a dynamic process. With our investment? A life of financial management.
The growth of age, the improvement of professional quality, the change of asset scale, the change of market conditions and investment environment are all conditions and influencing factors that change the asset allocation model of each family.
If you don't manage your money, money will ignore you.
I'm Kerr Min Xu, a billionaire from Benben Finance and Business School, 202 10 124.