So what aspects of artificial intelligence can threaten human beings? Yang, a veteran who has been paying attention to the field of artificial intelligence for a long time, said that if artificial intelligence threatens and destroys mankind, it must be that science fiction movies have been watched too much and thinking too much. Of course, the supervision of artificial intelligence is also particularly important. With the rise of artificial intelligence and robots, a large number of people will be unemployed.
Translators, journalists, stock traders and security guards will be replaced.
On the contrary, artificial intelligence will bring huge business opportunities because it develops very fast. In many fields, some jobs we used to be familiar with have disappeared, some will be gradually replaced, some will replace human beings, and some will directly lay off human beings.
Many real-time speeches at meetings will be translated. We have an excellent translator here. Maybe in the near future, your job will be replaced by machines. Of course, a real-time, error-free and emotionally attractive translation is still hard to find, so your job opportunity is still saved. But simple and cheap text abstract translation can already be done by machines. Translation as a job, if you are particularly good at translating some poems in real time, you will be OK in this job all your life, no problem. However, more than 95% of translation, a simple and literally understandable translation, can be done by machines today and will make rapid progress in the future. To be bold, 95% of translation should be replaced by machines.
90% of AP articles are written by machines, which has been the case for several years. Why can its articles be written by machines? Journalists are such tall jobs in the eyes of ordinary people. Can machines replace them? The fact is, yes, it is not difficult for machines to replace journalists. If you see the news released by a company today, and then see that its stock has fallen, you can save it, process it and contact the context, which will be a good article. In fact, 95% of the articles are of this kind, which is really deep, just like The New York Times's. A reporter spent three to five months in-depth investigation, and then published an article, which is still a particularly literary article. It still needs a deep media spirit to be written by a literate journalist. But ordinary articles are basically replaceable.
It's hard to grow up as a lawyer, but it's easy to be a paralegal. It may not be easy to be a doctor, but making a tool for doctors, or with the help of medical care, such as an assistant to help diabetics measure blood sugar, will not replace doctors, but in fact, when everyone uses this machine, the number of doctors and nurses actually needed will decrease.
Traders and stock analysts, to a large extent, analysts look at the gains and losses of stocks in different baskets and what kind of money-making space they bring. If the machine is used to do the work, the effect will be better.
Imagine that in the future, when these driverless cars capture 6.5438+million different scenes every day, just like AlphaGo plays 6.5438+million chess games with each other, human beings cannot simulate so many chess games in quantity, and they cannot defeat these machines. It can be boldly assumed that in the future, all jobs such as traders and assistants will have the word "intermediary".
Many repetitive, data-based, objective, measurable and computable things will basically be replaced.
A little deeper, it may be made into a tool to let fewer people engage in such work. There are still many positions that are not high and will be replaced. Nearly 10% of people's jobs are related to driving, and drivers will be replaced. Security will be replaced, and the robot can shoot a complete video. When it knows that someone is invading, it will notify humans. Of course, this does not mean that all the security guards in the world have been replaced. Maybe there should be 10 security guards in the night patrol work of a factory, but now only one security guard plus 10 robots is needed.
After 10- 15, 90% of the jobs in the world, and perhaps 50% of mankind, will be partially or completely replaced. From another perspective, there will be huge business opportunities here. The use cost of robots is getting lower and lower, and the marginal cost will continue to decline. These robots work 24 hours a year 365 days a year. They won't go on strike, complain, protest, quarrel with their bosses, get angry and have children. These robots are very obedient. Who can invent these artificial intelligence robots? No matter drivers, security guards, traders and secretaries, whoever can get very good profits from it must start from the industry with the most money and the biggest gap and continue to promote it.
The industry least likely to be replaced by robots
However, some people think that the crisis is both a danger and an opportunity.
Philip Lowe, the head of RBA, said that people should not be afraid of being replaced by robots, because the improvement of productivity will make those who stay in their posts get higher wages. Moreover, the advantage of robots lies in mechanical labor, and those jobs that require thinking ability and creativity are still irreplaceable.
This seems to be supported by the data.
In addition to industries that are easily replaced, McKinsey's report also points out occupations that are not easily replaced by artificial intelligence and robots. These jobs are usually classified as knowledge-based jobs, including:
Personnel management and training
decision-making
Creative work
The two industries that are least likely to be replaced by robots are:
education industry
Health care industry
In the medical industry, only 36% of jobs may be replaced by robots, and if it is a job that requires professional skills and needs to communicate with patients, the proportion will be even lower. For example, less than 30% of the work of registered nurses is likely to be automated, and only 13% of the work of dentists is likely to be automated.
In addition, according to the data analysis of the Australian recruitment website Indeed, in Australia, the main occupations that are least likely to be replaced by automation technology are teachers and medical staff, such as:
Network security experts
Data scientist
Marketing and design
human resources
Jobs that require professional knowledge and skills cannot be easily replaced by automation technology.
So some people think that the advantage of artificial intelligence lies in mechanical labor, which requires thinking ability and creativity. However, with the rapid development of artificial intelligence, who can guarantee that one day in the future, they will not have their own thinking?
Artificial intelligence VS human beings
What impacts, opportunities and challenges have artificial intelligence brought to mankind?
I agree with Kaplan very much. I won't talk about it. Will artificial intelligence enslave mankind in the future? Let's solve this problem first. Think about it. In the next 10- 15, half of people will lose their jobs because of artificial intelligence. Of course, you can say that it doesn't matter if you are unemployed, just do some AI, but it's not like this. Not everyone has this interest and ability, and there are not so many people who need it. If we make a bold assumption, after ten to fifteen years, half of the people will be unemployed. Maybe artificial intelligence will create 20% jobs, some programming, or AR/VR design, or repair robots, repair unmanned driving and so on.
The number of jobs created by artificial intelligence is definitely far less than the number of jobs lost. So, in the face of a huge challenge of human beings, how can we make such a huge unemployed population not bring a huge challenge to our economic system and the stability of the whole society? This is unprecedented in the industrial revolution and the information revolution. There is no doubt that the industrial revolution replaced many people's jobs, and so did the machine revolution, but it has never come so quickly and so much as it is today. Are you ready?
It also poses great challenges to the education of the next generation. Many traditional parents will tell their children to find a stable job and a golden rice bowl. Even many repetitive jobs are considered especially suitable for children, especially in China families. For girls, they will tell her that a stable job is more important. I personally don't think so. Teaching children in this way is actually harmful to children, because repetitive work is replaced the fastest and can never come back.