How to understand China's economic growth? ppt
Facing the complicated economic situation at home and abroad, there are both optimistic and critical views on the future development of China's economy. The new changes in the international and domestic situation have not changed the fundamentals of China's economic development, and the driving force of economic growth is still strong. In view of the prominent contradictions in economic operation, we should grasp the direction, intensity and rhythm of macro-control and promote economic growth to continue to develop in the expected direction of macro-control. At present, the overall situation of China's economic development is good, and the economic growth has changed from policy stimulus to independent growth in an orderly manner, and continues to develop in the expected direction of macroeconomic regulation and control. At the same time, economic operation is also facing many challenges, such as high price operation, slow economic growth, and increased pressure of structural adjustment. In view of the prominent contradictions in economic operation, we should grasp the direction, intensity and rhythm of macro-control, not only to reduce the price increase, but also to prevent large fluctuations in economic growth, and take advantage of favorable opportunities to promote economic restructuring, deepen reforms in key areas and key links, and consolidate the good momentum of economic development. Although the economic growth rate has slowed down, it is still in a stable and rapid growth range. At present, the driving force of economic growth is still strong, and the annual economic growth rate will still be higher than 9%. Since the beginning of this year, China's economic growth has been generally stable, the price increase has been generally controllable, structural adjustment has been actively promoted, and the economic development situation has been generally good. First, economic growth is generally stable. Although the economic growth rate slowed down in the first half of last year, it is still in a stable and rapid growth range. The role of domestic demand has been significantly enhanced, private investment has maintained a relatively high growth, and the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods has stabilized at a high level. The moderate slowdown in economic growth is not only the impact of the global economic slowdown, but also the comprehensive result of China's active regulation and changes in market demand, which is generally in line with the expected goals of macroeconomic regulation and control. Second, the overall price increase is controllable. Although the year-on-year increase of food and housing prices is still at a high level, the price increase tends to converge, and the price increase momentum has been initially controlled. The third is to actively promote structural adjustment. From the perspective of demand structure, while the contribution rate of investment and export to economic growth decreases, the contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth increases. From the perspective of production structure, investment in agricultural production has increased, industrial production has grown steadily, strategic emerging industries have developed rapidly, and modern service industries such as modern logistics, software, information services and cultural creativity have developed well. From the perspective of income structure, the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents has increased rapidly, the financial investment in social security, education and medical care has increased substantially, and the transfer income of urban and rural residents has increased substantially. Generally speaking, there are many favorable conditions for maintaining steady and rapid economic growth and controlling the momentum of rising prices in the future. The new changes in the international and domestic situation have not changed the fundamentals of China's economic development, and the momentum of economic growth is still strong. Driven by the growth of infrastructure investment such as water conservancy and affordable housing, industrial transfer and the development of strategic emerging industries, the investment growth rate will remain at a high level; The final consumption will maintain a rapid growth rate with the improvement of employment situation, the increase of wages and the improvement of income and consumption ability of urban and rural residents; The export growth rate will be affected by the global economic slowdown, but it will still return to the normal level, and the annual economic growth rate will still be higher than 9%. As the effect of prudent monetary policy is further manifested, the growth rate of total social demand slows down, the supply of grain and major industrial products is sufficient, the hikes are gradually weakened, and measures to stabilize prices are gradually implemented, and the price increase will fall back in the coming months. The process of world economic recovery is difficult and tortuous, and unstable and uncertain factors are increasing. With the continuous expansion of economic aggregate, it is more difficult for China to maintain rapid economic growth in a longer period of time, and the process of world economic recovery is difficult and tortuous, with more unstable and uncertain factors. The internal conditions of China's economic development are relatively favorable, but there are still many contradictions, such as high prices, slowing economic growth and increasing structural adjustment pressure. First, prices are running at a high level. Because it is difficult to fundamentally eliminate the factors driving the price increase in the short term, the year-on-year increase of food and housing prices is still at a high level, and the pressure of rising labor, wages and other factors will exist for a long time. The task of curbing price increases in the coming period is still very arduous. Second, economic growth has slowed down. From the perspective of investment demand, the growth rate of total investment in newly started projects dropped significantly this year. From the perspective of final consumption, due to the cooling of consumption hotspots such as automobiles and houses and the withdrawal of some policies to stimulate consumption, the pulling effect of consumption on economic growth will also be weakened. From the perspective of external demand, the global economic growth slows down, and the production, capital and exchange rate costs of export enterprises increase, which leads to the slowdown of export growth. Third, the pressure of structural adjustment has increased. From the perspective of demand structure, the contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth is still lower than that of investment. From the perspective of production structure, the production of some high-energy-consuming industries is growing rapidly, and the power supply and demand in some areas are tight, so the task of energy conservation and emission reduction is very severe. From the perspective of income structure, the growth of fiscal revenue and corporate profits is still significantly higher than that of urban and rural residents. Structural imbalance makes short-term problems and long-term problems intertwined, and total balance and structural contradictions overlap, which increases the difficulty of macro-control. At the same time, due to factors such as financing costs, rising raw material prices, rising wages, and rising exchange rates, some enterprises have increased their production and operation difficulties and reduced their economic benefits. The transaction volume of the real estate market has shrunk, and the growth rate of housing completion has declined. However, housing prices in most cities are still at a high level, and the game between buyers and sellers has caused the market to fall into a stalemate. Third, fully consider the impact of domestic and international situations on the real economy and the lag and cumulative effects of policies, and enhance the pertinence, flexibility and predictability of policies. At present, we should grasp the direction, intensity and rhythm of macro-control from two aspects. First, we should properly handle the relationship between maintaining the continuity and stability of macro policies and enhancing pertinence, flexibility and predictability. At present, stabilizing the overall price level is still the primary task of macro-control, and the orientation of macro-control cannot be changed. At the same time, the situation at home and abroad is complex and changeable, and it is necessary to strengthen the pertinence, flexibility and predictability of macroeconomic policies. On the one hand, we must adhere to a prudent monetary policy, gradually reduce the growth rate of money and credit, and create conditions for stabilizing the overall price level; On the other hand, we should fully consider the impact of complex changes at home and abroad on the production and operation of enterprises and the real economy, as well as the lag and cumulative effect of policies, and enhance the pertinence, flexibility and predictability of policies. Second, properly handle the relationship between maintaining steady and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure and managing inflation expectations, and find a "balance point" between controlling prices, stabilizing growth and adjusting structure, which will not only reduce the price increase, but also cause great fluctuations in economic growth. At present, we should take effective measures to consolidate the good momentum of economic and social development in view of the outstanding contradictions in economic operation. First, keep the overall price level basically stable and strive to reduce the price increase. At present, we should continue to take comprehensive measures to curb the excessive price increase, strive to make the price increase fall even more in the next few months, and create conditions for stabilizing prices in the coming period. Second, promote steady and rapid economic growth and enhance the pulling role of domestic demand. Promoting steady and rapid economic growth is an important prerequisite and foundation for increasing the employment and income of urban and rural residents. The economic growth rate should not be too high or too low. Efforts should be made to expand domestic demand, enhance the driving force of independent economic growth, improve policies to promote consumption, promote the sustained income increase of urban and rural residents, encourage the development of emerging consumption fields and consumption formats, and promote the sustained and rapid growth of private investment. At the same time, we should attach great importance to the impact of changes in the external market environment on import and export trade, take measures to stabilize external demand, and avoid the negative impact of a sharp drop in exports on industrial production, employment and economic growth. Third, promote economic restructuring and strive for greater progress. Adjusting the economic structure is the premise of improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth. It is necessary to speed up the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries, strengthen the research and development of key core technologies of industries, and support market expansion and business model innovation. It is necessary to solve the outstanding difficulties such as the shortage of funds for small and medium-sized enterprises and improve the development environment for small enterprises. It is necessary to curb the development of "two high" and overcapacity industries and accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity. Fourth, deepen the reform of key areas and key links to stimulate the internal vitality and motivation of economic development. It is necessary to promote the reform of the fiscal and taxation system and improve the tax policies that are conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure and the development of the service industry. It is necessary to promote the reform of income distribution and actively build a mechanism for the simultaneous growth of residents' income and the national economy. Is this ok?