NDF has always been regarded as the leading indicator of spot exchange rate. The RMB NDF market started trading in Singapore on June 1996. In the long run, the change of RMB NDF will have a positive impact on the change of RMB exchange rate. The formation characteristics of RMB NDF price determine that its discount point can reflect the expectations of both parties to the transaction for RMB appreciation and depreciation. The data shows that the fluctuation of NDF in each period is basically consistent with the expectation of RMB exchange rate in overseas markets. At the end of 2008, influenced by economic downturn and other factors, the NDF market experienced the first depreciation expectation since the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and the lowest depreciation expectation reached 2% ~ 3%, which lasted until the end of the first quarter of 2009. Since April 2009, under the expectation of the depreciation of the US dollar, the exchange rate of RMB in the NDF market is expected to appreciate again, indicating that RMB is facing the pressure of appreciation again.

The change time of synchronous indicators is generally consistent with the economic situation, which can show the general trend of economic development, and can also confirm or deny the economic development trend predicted by the leading indicators. The turning point of these indicators roughly coincides with the transformation of the national economic cycle, indicating what is happening in the national economy.

China often adopts the following indicators as consistent synchronization indicators: gross industrial output value, gross industrial output value of the whole people, sales income of industrial enterprises within the budget, retail sales of social goods, pure purchase of domestic products, pure sales of domestic products, customs imports, broad money M2, etc. These indicators are mostly routine indicators. Traditionally, conventional indicators can't show the trend of economic operation, but it's not always the case. These economic and financial indicators reflect some year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter trends. For example, since the beginning of 2009, the growth rate of M 1 year-on-year is much faster than that of M2, and the scissors difference between M 1 and M2 is decreasing, from 12. 1 percentage point in June to 3.67 percentage points. This is a reflection of active economic activities, and abundant funds further support the sustained economic recovery.