Release time: 2008072 1 Author: Yang Reprinted Source: Computer World Input: Everything follows fate

The complete disintegration of industrial barriers has created the prosperity of shanzhai mobile phones, and the shipment of 65.438+0.5 billion units has triggered a collective "encirclement and suppression" of brand mobile phones; The two original sins of tax evasion and imitation make the shanzhai machine collective shame, while the price war and market overdraft are brewing the prosperity and danger of shanzhai machine.

Shanzhai machine is in danger

Shanzhai mobile phone is becoming a deadly killer of brand mobile phone manufacturers. In 2007, the shipment volume was as high as 65.438+0.5 billion units, which made the market share of shanzhai machine reach 20% unconsciously.

The cancellation of mobile phone license and the rise of single-chip mobile phone scheme completely disintegrated the barriers of mobile phone industry overnight. When shanzhai mobile phones with complete functions, diverse styles and low prices stand in the market with a "drag" attitude, domestic mobile phones that have not yet established brand loyalty have suffered losses, from Bird and TCL to Amoi and Lenovo. Giants such as Nokia, Motorola and Samsung. It has been overwhelmed by those mobile phones called Noke and Gighone, and the market share of branded mobile phones has declined for the first time.

When angry brand manufacturers and industry associations began to mobilize public opinion and called on government departments to intervene and collectively "encircle" shanzhai mobile phones, a group of shanzhai fans regarded shanzhai mobile phones as the pioneers of the mobile phone industry revolution. Kan Kaili, a professor at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, believes that the emergence of shanzhai mobile phones is a major innovation in China's mobile phone industry and a major revolution in the mobile phone industry chain, which will promote the development of China's mobile phone industry.

The cottage is "awesome"! If the small-brand and brand-free mobile phones using the single-chip mobile phone scheme are understood as shanzhai mobile phones, then there are both creative "fighters" and "garbage" in the shanzhai.

Tax evasion and imitation have collectively humiliated the cottage, and price wars and market overdrafts are brewing the crisis of cottage.

Market overdraft crisis appears.

In our reporter's investigation, unexpectedly, many people expressed concern about the situation of the cottage, and described the upcoming summer vacation as "July-August crisis".

"The cottage market seems to be very prosperous. In fact, many manufacturers are losing money to earn money. " Zhou Hua told reporters that nearly 20% of the cottage manufacturers in the market are in a state of "staged losses".

Zhou Hua believes that one of the reasons for this phenomenon is that July-August is the traditional off-season of the mobile phone industry; Second, the appreciation of RMB and the rising cost of raw materials and accessories (many accessories of mobile phones need to be imported) have led to a sharp increase in export pressure; The third is the inventory pressure caused by oversupply. According to Zhou Hua's estimation, there are thousands of shanzhai machines in Shenzhen alone, forming the saying that shanzhai machines are "the old three strong" and "the new three strong". The indifference of the market and the rapid update of technology have caused the backlog of old brands and products. "For example, the current popular single chip dual card dual standby. What if the original product hasn't been sold yet? Some manufacturers dare not push new products. " A senior industry insider also agrees with this view.

Li Kaibin, general manager of Kesheng mobile phone, also realized the crisis of shanzhai mobile phone. "Now the profit of the mobile phone industry is already very thin. Shanzhai is a huge group and a weak individual with a success rate of less than110. "

He believes that the emergence of the crisis is first of all the overdraft in the pre-market of the cottage. The price of the cottage is low and the quality is relatively poor. Originally, consumers are immature and easily attracted by low prices and dazzling appearance. In recent years, due to the popularity of shanzhai mobile phones, consumers have subconsciously formed a distrust of domestic mobile phones. Moreover, consumers' buying behavior is also changing. Consumers who buy mobile phones now often buy mobile phones for the second time. With the understanding of the industry, they are more likely to choose foreign brands.

Another reason that can't be ignored is the downward adjustment of the price of domestic brand mobile phones, which makes dealers reluctant to sell shanzhai mobile phones because the price is less attractive to consumers.

An insider in Shenzhen who did not want to be named gave an example to the reporter. If the original domestic brand mobile phone sells for 1000 yuan and the knockoff sells for 800 yuan, the difference between them is 200 yuan money. Consumers will choose to buy a cottage. However, the difference between domestic brand mobile phones and 820 yuan is only 20 yuan, so the price has little influence on consumers' buying behavior. For dealers, if the original price of domestic mobile phones is 500 yuan, and the cottage is 300 yuan, the difference between them is 200 yuan. Dealers can earn a difference of 200 yuan by selling knockoffs, and they are also willing to sell knockoffs. However, when the purchase price of domestic mobile phones dropped to 400 yuan, some dealers had to weigh the risks and profits of both. For this 100 yuan, the dealer must bear the risks of quality, warranty and illegality. Some dealers will turn to selling domestic brand mobile phones.

In addition, the cost of shops is also increasing. With the further upgrade of the storefront, the rising decoration cost has caused the rising rental cost, which has increased the cost pressure of dealers.

Under the "triple pressure" of inventory pressure, change of dealer's attitude and intensified competition, the cottage machine has to go to "price war". As a result of the price war, some cottage manufacturers were forced to withdraw from the market.

Zhou Hua, director of domestic market of Procter & Gamble, said that most cottage manufacturers choose to stay, and there are two considerations. The first is speculative psychology. When one mobile phone loses money, I always want to make up for it with another mobile phone. Second, the launch of 3G will bring new technologies, new functions and a new round of opportunities.

In overseas markets, the negative impact of shanzhai mobile phones makes domestic mobile phones in a difficult situation. "When we deal with the Southeast Asian government, other parties have explicitly banned the import of mobile phones from China." Li Kaibin, general manager of Kesheng mobile phone, said. Because a large number of cottage machines were exported, but the quality was not up to standard, which caused dissatisfaction among local consumers and was included in the sales blacklist.

Learn from the cottage machine

"The cottage machine has given a lesson to domestic brand mobile phone manufacturers." The general manager of a well-known domestic mobile phone company told reporters. Why do consumers like to buy knockoffs? Zhou Hua, domestic marketing director of Procter & Gamble Mobile, said that domestic brand mobile phones may lag behind cottage phones in function, appearance and even technology; Moreover, shanzhai also has a price advantage. The reasons for choosing the market are very good.

Since last year, domestic mobile phones, including Bird and Amoi, have suffered losses in succession, and some manufacturers attribute one of the reasons for the losses to the impact of cottage phones. "He is talking nonsense! Make excuses for the failure of domestic mobile phones. Why didn't Nokia lose money because of this? Explain that the so-called brand of domestic brand mobile phones is still worthless. " The general manager of a cottage mobile phone manufacturer can't help but get excited when he hears the accusation of a domestic brand mobile phone company.

Although there are such and such problems, the "cottage phenomenon" is left to the mobile phone industry, especially the domestic brand mobile phone manufacturers for deep reflection. Aside from the two original sins of "tax evasion" and "imitation", there are still many inspirations from the cottage to the industry.

Vigorously integrate social resources.

"socialized mass production" is very obvious in the supply chain of shanzhai machine. In Shenzhen, the cottage production has formed a one-stop service, involving chip, design, manufacturing, integration, sales and other related enterprises.

Shu, a professor at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, said in an interview that shanzhai has its positive side. The rise of shanzhai has sounded the alarm for existing mobile phone brand enterprises, prompting them to see the shortcomings in their own production and operation, thus accelerating the integration of industrial resources.

The view coincides with Shu Huaying's. "Amoi claims to have a research and development team of 1 1,000 people, but don't forget that there are tens of thousands of research and development personnel in the society. There are the latest technologies and functions, from which you can choose the best. In this regard, the speed and wisdom of the cottage are higher than those of the opponent. " Perhaps domestic brand mobile phones should give up the idea of "doing everything by themselves". In fact, there is no core technology for mobile phones (MediaTek and Spreadtrum helped in technology), and the key to mobile phone competition lies in the innovation of speed and marketing means.

Kan Kaili, a professor at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, believes that the production mode of shanzhai has broken the deep research and development mode of Nokia, Samsung and Motorola in the west. Their model is to engage in a research and development cycle of half a year or even a year before launching a new product. The shanzhai mobile phone is based on the mobile phone chipset, and quickly develops various mobile phones suitable for consumers' needs.

Making full use of existing social resources can not only reduce costs through social division of labor, but also screen out the best scheme through survival of the fittest. However, how to establish an indispensable position in the industrial chain in the social division of labor is indeed a problem worth thinking about. If we lose the "own R&D ability" that domestic brand manufacturers often advertise, how will domestic brand mobile phone manufacturers stand on their feet?

Kan Kaili, a professor at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, is astounding in how to treat the phenomenon of fake mobile phones. He believes that the appearance of shanzhai mobile phone is a great innovation in China's mobile phone industry, a major revolution in the mobile phone industry chain, and a great driving force for China's mobile phone industry to flourish and play a more important role in the world.