The popularization and application of artificial intelligence must exist in pure software, auxiliary equipment and automation equipment, and gradually penetrate into all industries, all behaviors and all aspects. During this period, people gradually become hands-on to give orders, then review orders and finally become supervisors. By the way, in the process of artificial intelligence replacing low-level personnel in various industries, the number of human employees has been greatly reduced, and the extra manpower can only be developed into creative jobs, such as researchers, anchors, self-media, literary and artistic creation, and so on. As consumers, the temptation of various services and entertainment will gradually erode the timeline and money, and the difficulty of choice will enter a period of high incidence. For the whole society, overproduction and employment rate may become a big problem.
In the foreseeable years, translation will be replaced! Now machine translation is very awesome. Completely usable. For example, I watched a video on a video website tonight and found that the website can add subtitles to the video content synchronously! When the speaker speaks a word, a word will appear in the subtitles. After my observation, there are almost no mistakes and delays! It can be said that speech recognition is already very powerful (it is said that it exceeds human recognition ability). What's more, I found that it also has automatic translation function. In other words, English speeches on the computer can automatically generate Chinese subtitles! The level is quite good. I noticed that idioms such as "Be prepared for danger in times of peace" and other very vivid words appeared in the subtitles, such as "bird's eye view".
In my opinion, there is still a gap between human-translated subtitles and human-translated subtitles, but they can be used completely and there is no problem in understanding the speaker's meaning. I often look at it and forget that it is machine translation. Moreover, as a deep learning algorithm, with the increase of data and the improvement of the algorithm, it should not be a problem to eliminate human translation within a few years. In addition to translation, security guards may also face similar situations. Kai-fu Lee said that he invested in an artificial intelligence company, and they have a product called face++ for face recognition. In terms of security, this is obviously promising. In the future, facial recognition may not need us to face the camera, but we can control the security door through the ordinary surveillance camera, so there is really no need for security inspection.
This is the situation that artificial intelligence breaks through a single occupation, greatly improves efficiency and compares people at once. I think this will definitely happen in the next five years. With the development of artificial intelligence, this situation will be more and more. But if artificial intelligence will subvert any field first, causing a large number of people to lose their jobs, I think finance is the most likely. Really, in the final analysis, finance is a number game for one person. There is no entity. All operations are completely realized in the form of data. The first element of artificial intelligence is big data. Secondly, the financial industry has always been highly accepting of new technologies, and they have the money to try ai. At present, there are related enterprises in the market. It is said that eight minutes of lending, the bad debt rate is much lower than the industry average, and it is squeezed by other peers in minutes. At the same time, I think the industries that will be hit in the next few years are lawyers and medical care. In the past two years, I have been seeing the news that artificial intelligence has surpassed human beings in the accuracy of disease diagnosis. There is such a message:
Artificial intelligence found that when judging cancer, the cells around cancer cells are also related to cancer, subverting the cognition of medical research in this field for many years. It is necessary to mention here that the current deep learning and neural network, and the experience finally learned, are a black box system for human beings. In other words, now artificial intelligence can also distinguish the difference between cats and dogs. But it is not the same as human classification, and human beings don't know how it is classified. In theory, it is completely foreseeable and realized that artificial intelligence replaces doctors. Let's take surgery for example. At first, artificial intelligence may be helping to make some judgments. Then, it may be that humans only need to click a little on the screen and the machine can operate by itself. Finally, it may be that human beings are forbidden to enter the operating room in order to ensure a sterile environment, and artificial intelligence can do everything by itself. The lawyer industry is also facing a similar situation. I think these two industries will be hit because they have strong internal demand. Whether in China or the United States, our medical resources are far from enough.
So these two industries are different from the financial industry. Artificial intelligence is more likely to fill the shortage of many social resources in a short time, and of course there will be unemployment in the end. The hottest unmanned driving now, let's talk about it separately. Tesla has long been on the road, and Google's driverless driving has always been the best in the world. These two companies only represent two different development directions. The safety level of unmanned driving is graded. Like Tesla's current car, it is probably in the second and third grades, which can realize automatic driving under simple road conditions. Therefore, its current system is still an assisted driving system, and complicated situations need people to take over.
Google's driverless driving is another plan. They intend to sell their cars at Grade 4 or 5, and will not give users a semi-finished car. The domestic situation is estimated to be similar to that of Tesla, and autonomous driving under simple road conditions will start to sell. Then further accumulate data, update the algorithm, and refer to Baidu's Apollo program, which is roughly the case. However, the unemployment problem caused by unmanned vehicles will not be soon at present. When taxi drivers or truck drivers really don't need it, they must at least reach the fifth level of safety before they dare to let such a car go. Maybe five to ten years, it should be realized!
Compared with these, minivans in warehouses now may pose a greater threat to unemployment. The storage area of the warehouse has suddenly increased by 50%. Don't give money yet ~ Kai-fu Lee estimates that 50% of people in China will lose their jobs in the next decade. He himself said that it was calculated based on models and data. Many people didn't take it seriously, but I think it is possible. Yesterday and tomorrow, past and future. What we used to think impossible is happening now, and what we used to think possible will become impossible. If the era of artificial intelligence does not jump the ticket this time, but really comes, we will face the trivial matter of unemployment. We may face a whole new society. For example, the debate between planned economy and market economy has been going on for so many years. In the market economy, we say that there is an invisible hand, but when the era of artificial intelligence comes and everything is digital.
We really can't see this hand? This organizational form of the company only appeared after the second industrial revolution, and there will be no new organizational form in the future? In my opinion, instead of thinking about what job will lead to unemployment, we should think about what kind of education we should receive now to adapt to the future world.