The increase of capital cost and income caused by RMB appreciation will change China's economic structure in the long run, endow industries with different growth rates, and differentiate the performance of enterprises in different industries.
The appreciation of RMB changes the book value of assets, liabilities, income, costs and other enterprises in the industry in a short time, and affects their operating performance through changes in exchange gains and losses.
The appreciation of RMB will be a long-term benefit for industries with high import ratio, large foreign debt scale, high liquidity or huge RMB assets.
The appreciation of RMB will have a great impact on the international pricing of export industries, industries with high foreign currency assets or products.
The appreciation of RMB will affect different industries in two ways. First, the increase of capital cost and income caused by the appreciation of RMB will change the economic structure of China in the long run, give different growth rates to industries again, and differentiate the performance of enterprises in different industries. Second, the appreciation of RMB changes the book value of assets, liabilities, income, costs and other enterprises in the industry in a short time, and affects their operating performance through the difference in foreign exchange conversion. Generally speaking, the appreciation of RMB will be a long-term benefit for industries with high import ratio, large foreign debt scale, high liquidity or huge RMB assets; However, it has a great impact on the export industry, high foreign currency assets industry or international pricing of products; Others have less influence.
The main beneficiary industries include: real estate and infrastructure industries are non-trading real estate industries, and appreciation will comprehensively enhance the value of domestic real estate assets, and at the same time enhance the investment value of infrastructure and basic industries such as airports, ports, railways and highways with limited resources, monopoly or long construction period and low supply elasticity, which will obviously benefit the above two industries; Financial industry, especially banking and securities industry, is a capital-intensive industry engaged in currency and capital business. Because of its good liquidity and high RMB assets, it will attract a lot of international funds and benefit from it. Industries such as aviation, electric power, oil refining, paper making, construction machinery, etc. benefit from the cost reduction caused by the dependence on foreign procurement of raw materials or equipment, or the exchange gains and losses caused by a large number of foreign debts, especially for the aviation industry with monopoly advantages in the domestic market; High-tech industries that rely on technology imports do not have advantages in key scientific and technological intellectual property rights, and will maintain the momentum of a large number of imports for a certain period of time, and can maintain their own advantages in cost on the premise of exchange rate appreciation.
The main damaged industries include: export-oriented industries, such as textile industry (especially clothing industry with high export dependence, followed by cotton spinning and wool spinning), household appliances, building materials and so on. The appreciation of RMB will greatly weaken the competitive advantage of products; Foreign trade enterprises are at a disadvantage in the industrial chain, and it is difficult for import business to obtain excess profits from RMB appreciation, but export business will suffer heavy losses; The extractive industry, petrochemical industry and non-ferrous metal industry will be impacted by the internationalization of product pricing.
(A) the real estate industry
Expected effect: We believe that we should attach great importance to people's psychological factors when evaluating the impact of appreciation. People's profit-seeking psychology and conformity psychology are very common, which will be fully manifested with the warming of the market, which will obviously contribute to the rise of capital market and real estate prices.
Inflow effect of capital: RMB appreciation generally means that the domestic economy as a whole is improving, there are many investment opportunities, and the income level is relatively considerable (at least additional exchange gains can be obtained). Therefore, a large amount of foreign capital will enter the domestic market through various channels, and the stock market and real estate market become the places where these funds are concentrated because of their good liquidity, which eventually leads to the rise of stock market and real estate prices, which is more obvious in Japanese and Taiwan Province markets. Although China's foreign exchange control is relatively strict, this trend is also taking shape according to the inflow of foreign capital in 2003: the gap between the increase of foreign exchange reserves, trade surplus and foreign direct investment in China has been on the rise in the past 2-3 years, in which there may be a lot of speculative funds, and foreign direct investment does not rule out changing the investment direction. Considering the amplification effect of this part of funds, the impact on the whole real estate cannot be underestimated.
Wealth effect: Due to abundant funds, rising stock market and overall economic prosperity, the income level of residents will be greatly improved, which will stimulate people to form a strong wealth effect. Therefore, real estate will be sought after as the main focus of consumption upgrading, thus enhancing the effective demand for real estate. Japan's stock market and real estate market rose the most during 1985- 1990.
(2) Financial industry
1. Banking business
If the RMB exchange rate rises, it will increase its attraction to international and domestic funds, and a large amount of funds will flow into the domestic banking system, which will have a positive impact on the development of banking business. The foreign currency assets and liabilities of listed banks account for a relatively small proportion of the total assets of the banking industry, and the shrinkage of foreign currency assets caused by appreciation has limited practical impact on the banking industry.
Shrinking effect of foreign currency assets: the balance of foreign currency assets and liabilities of banks accounts for about 0.52% of total assets, and a 5% appreciation of RMB may reduce the average earnings per share of listed banks by 0.0 14 yuan. However, if the appreciation 10%, the earnings per share of the five listed banks will decrease by 0.03 yuan on average.
Currency structure adjustment effect of assets and liabilities: RMB appreciation is expected to reduce RMB loans and increase foreign currency loans; RMB deposits tend to increase and foreign currency deposits tend to decrease, thus adjusting the currency structure of bank assets and liabilities. However, because the main business of Chinese banks is limited to China, the adjustment of the currency structure of bank assets and liabilities is only fine-tuning.
The effect of income structure changes: the adjustment of exchange rate formation mechanism will inevitably lead to the expansion of exchange rate fluctuations, and the scale of foreign exchange transactions and exchanges tends to increase; Derivative products are further enriched; Risk hedging and speculation tend to be active. Bank's exchange earnings and foreign exchange financing fees tend to increase; However, the risk of informal foreign exchange financing will also rise.
To sum up, the balance of foreign currency assets and liabilities of the five listed banks is only 9.558 billion yuan, accounting for only 0.52% of the total assets. Therefore, the overall impact of RMB appreciation of 5% on listed banks is very limited, but the exchange rate risk of Shenzhen Development (information market forum) and people's livelihood is relatively large. Other aspects brought about by RMB appreciation are relatively small.
2. Securities industry
Under the expectation of appreciation, increasing the capital injected into the securities market is conducive to gathering the popularity of the stock market and enhancing investor confidence. The strength of the market will provide positive support for the steady growth of brokerage business, asset management business, investment banking business and self-investment business of securities companies, directly increase the profitability of securities companies and improve the competitiveness of the securities industry. The rise of the stock market often has an amplification effect on the operation of securities companies. But in the long run, the stock market bubble and its joint effects with other asset markets will impact the entire financial system, which is a risk.
(3) Transportation industry
1. Aviation industry
The appreciation of RMB will make industrial companies with high foreign currency liabilities pay less RMB to complete the original equivalent foreign currency debt expenditure. Among them, the foreign currency liabilities of aviation stocks are the most concentrated in the transportation industry, and airlines have a large number of aviation equipment financing lease liabilities, and they have to pay certain interest expenses and principal every year.
Take China Southern Airlines as an example, its asset-liability ratio is basically maintained at around 70%, of which about 78% of financial leasing is in US dollars, 20% is in Japanese yen, and 54% of bank loans are in US dollars. For every change in the exchange rate of USD and JPY against RMB 1%, the exchange gains and losses are 98 million yuan and 1.8 million yuan respectively.
The appreciation of RMB has the following effects on aviation stocks: first, there will be one-time book exchange gains and losses in the current period of appreciation; The second is to reduce the cost of jet fuel and operating lease for a long time, and the gross profit margin of airlines has increased. It is estimated that for every appreciation of RMB 1%, the gross profit margin of airlines will increase by 0.5%. Third, the appreciation of RMB will also promote the rapid growth of air outbound travel.
2. Shipping industry
At present, China Shipping Development (Information Market Forum) has about 37% foreign currency settlement income, but at the same time, the company also has basically the same foreign currency expenditure, which can basically be offset.
COSCO Shipping (Information Market Forum) accounts for more than 90% of foreign currency settlement income, but foreign currency accounts for more than 70% of the company's operating expenses, including foreign currency liabilities of acquisition projects. The company believes that the appreciation of RMB has limited impact on the company. This is obviously different from foreign trade export companies.
3. Highway, airport and port industries
A few highway companies have a small amount of foreign currency liabilities, but the amount is limited, so the impact of RMB appreciation on them is limited.
International airports generally have a certain amount of foreign currency income, but the amount is limited.
Coastal ports also have basically equivalent foreign currency income and liabilities, and are not sensitive to RMB appreciation. For example, Shenchiwan (Information Market Forum) accounts for more than 50% of foreign currency income, and foreign currency liabilities also account for about 50% of total liabilities.
(4) Metal industry
1. Nonferrous metal industry
The appreciation of RMB will first cause the price of domestic metal products to fall. However, the appreciation of RMB has relatively little influence on the metal varieties with large domestic supply gap, such as copper, alumina and nickel. For industries with a large proportion of exports, such as electrolytic aluminum, it will bring a big price shock in the short term, but the reduction of alumina procurement cost will effectively alleviate the loss of profits.
Because most domestic metal varieties need to import concentrate raw materials from abroad, the appreciation of RMB will reduce the procurement cost of imported raw materials from abroad in general trade without considering other preconditions; However, for enterprises that trade imported raw materials by processing materials, the appreciation of RMB will reduce their processing fees denominated in RMB, which will lead to a decline in profit margins. From the current point of view, the global concentrate processing fee is generally on the rise, far exceeding the potential appreciation space of RMB. Therefore, we believe that a small appreciation of RMB in the future will have relatively little impact on such processing enterprises.
2. Iron and steel industry
The biggest benefit of RMB appreciation to the steel industry is to reduce the procurement cost of the steel industry: at present, about 40% of iron ore depends on imports, while raw materials dominated by iron ore account for 30-40% of the steel cost; The listed companies that benefit mainly include Baosteel, WISCO, Masteel, Jigang and Nangang. The ratio of iron ore procurement import to domestic procurement of these companies is basically 7: 3, while other companies that mainly own mines, such as Angang and Xingang Vanadium, have little influence.
The negative impact of RMB appreciation on the steel industry is mainly to increase steel imports and reduce exports. Of course, this negative impact is medium and long-term, and it is restricted by domestic demand and price difference at home and abroad in the short term. This negative impact can be ignored: First, the domestic demand for steel is still strong, and the export volume only accounts for 4% of the output. From the perspective of product structure, the export products are mainly low value-added wires and ordinary plates, while the imported products are high value-added products that cannot be produced or have insufficient capacity in China, including thin plates for automobiles and medium plates for ships. Secondly, at present, the price difference at home and abroad is above 20%, even if the RMB appreciates, it still cannot make up for this price difference. In the medium and long term, with the gradual narrowing of the spread, especially the CIS price is now close to the domestic price, the prices in these areas will have a restraining effect on the domestic price, and the appreciation of RMB will increase this influence. The impact on specific companies can be ignored, because the export ratio of listed companies in the steel industry is very small.
(5) Information technology industry
1. Electronic manufacturing industry
The electronics industry is divided into two categories, namely, low-value products and high-value products. Manufacturers of low-value products are at higher risk of being affected by RMB appreciation, because most of their raw materials come from China. Such products include air conditioners and televisions. The risk of high-value products is low, because its raw materials mainly depend on imports, so its input cost will decrease with the appreciation of RMB. Such products include personal computers, DVDs, digital cameras and other electronic consumer products and electronic components manufacturing, and most of them are OEM manufacturers.
2. Communication operation industry
First of all, the appreciation of RMB is beneficial to the development of major domestic telecom operators abroad. If telecom operators in China, especially mobile operators, want to develop further, they should explore overseas markets, especially developing countries, which started their telecommunications late, seize the market first and lay a good market foundation. The appreciation of RMB will also lead to the appreciation of funds, which will have an expanding effect on the investment of major operators abroad and have a positive role in promoting the construction of infrastructure such as base stations, laying lines and networking in foreign markets.
Second, after the appreciation of RMB, operators' overseas investment and construction can attract more foreign talents, improve their technical level, improve their management system, and make China operators' operations abroad more standardized and rational; Can attract local labor, compared with local operators, the labor cost is relatively low, so it has strong competitiveness.
In addition, after the appreciation of the RMB, the pressure on operators to repay the principal and interest of foreign debts is reduced, and operators can borrow from local financial institutions abroad to expand investment and construction, thus forming a scale effect.
3. Communication manufacturing industry
First of all, it is a fatal blow to the export of China communication enterprises (such as ZTE and Huawei) that produce communication hardware facilities (such as mobile phones and other terminal equipment, program-controlled equipment, computers, etc.). ). After the appreciation of RMB, the price of products of China communication enterprises will definitely rise sharply in the international market, so compared with similar products, our products have a disadvantage, which is not conducive to the international competition of domestic communication equipment. If the price is reduced in the international market, because the production cost of domestic enterprises is fixed, it will lead to the loss of profits of domestic communication enterprises, and the unemployment rate of communication enterprises will rise in serious cases. Impacting people's confidence in domestic communication enterprises is not conducive to making China's communication enterprises bigger and stronger, nor to establishing a brand in China's communication industry. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB has greatly hindered China's communication enterprises from going abroad.
4. Computer software industry
For the domestic software industry, the impact of RMB appreciation is more serious. Although the domestic software industry is less affected by export and import, because the software industry is a talent-intensive industry, the pressure brought by rising labor costs will be enormous, which is undoubtedly a great blow to the software outsourcing business that the domestic software industry has just broken through.
(VI) Power equipment industry
The appreciation of RMB has a positive impact on the power equipment industry as a whole.
First of all, due to the small export scale of China's power equipment enterprises, although boilers, steam turbines, generator sets and transformers are exported to many countries in the world every year, the foreign market scale of power equipment enterprises is far smaller than that of domestic enterprises. At present, the rapid development of pencil-related industries is mainly caused by the growth of domestic power investment demand. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate may reduce the export of power equipment enterprises to a certain extent, but it has little negative impact on power equipment enterprises.
Secondly, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate can reduce the manufacturing cost of power equipment. Some main raw materials of power equipment, such as extra-thick plates, large-diameter pipes, generator spindles, silicon steel sheets, copper and electronic components, are heavily dependent on imports; The introduction of flue gas desulfurization and flue gas denitrification technology needs to pay a certain technology introduction fee and a certain technical consultation fee every year; The appreciation of RMB exchange rate is expected to help reduce the manufacturing costs, technology introduction and technical consulting costs related to the power equipment industry. The rise of RMB exchange rate has a positive impact on the power equipment industry, especially the transformer, wire and cable industry with a relatively large proportion of imported materials.
Finally, the appreciation of RMB will stimulate imports to a certain extent, power equipment enterprises will introduce more cash technology, equipment and technology to develop products with higher technical level, and the expenditure on fixed assets and intangible assets will increase, which will improve the competitiveness of China's power equipment enterprises to a certain extent.
(7) Coal industry
Negative impact of main business: At present, the market position of most domestic coal enterprises is in China. Since 2004, the country has exported about 85 million tons of coal, accounting for about 4% of the annual raw coal output; From the perspective of products, clean coal and coke are exported in large quantities and play an important role in the international market. At present, China's coke exports account for about 50% of the world trade volume, which directly affects the international coke price; Judging from the export volume of listed companies, Yanzhou Coal Industry (Information Market Forum) has the largest export volume, with an annual export volume of about120,000 tons to Japan and other countries, followed by Xishan Coal and Electricity (Information Market Forum) and Shanxi Coking (Information Market Forum). As most international settlements are settled in US dollars, the appreciation of RMB will have a certain negative impact on the main coal industry and weaken the competitiveness of domestic enterprises in the international market.
On the import side, China imported about 20 million tons of coal in 2004. Due to the uneven distribution of coal resources in China, imports are mainly concentrated in southern provinces and cities, so the appreciation of RMB will greatly increase foreign coal imports.
Positive impact of assets, liabilities and financial expenses: As China coal enterprises have less overseas assets, if RMB appreciates, foreign debts of enterprises should be the main impact. Most of the high-grade coal mining and washing equipment purchased by some large enterprises are imported, and the payment method is in the form of buyer's or seller's credit. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB will reduce the external debt pressure of the company and reduce the annual financial expenses.
Positive effects of capital expenditure and overseas acquisition: due to the appreciation of RMB, large domestic enterprises will increase the import of high-end equipment, especially equipment with high requirements for capacity expansion. On the premise of high efficiency, they will use the appreciation of RMB to import foreign equipment, add or replace existing production equipment, and increase the capital expenditure of fixed assets; At the same time, large enterprise groups will also increase the pace of overseas expansion, rationally use financial leverage through mergers and acquisitions, implement global energy strategies, and reduce the impact of domestic market fluctuations.
(VIII) Petrochemical industry
The import and export mode of China petrochemical industry is resources for technology and capital. As far as the import and export structure is concerned, the export of petrochemical industry is mainly concentrated in basic chemical processing raw materials, and the added value of products is low, such as urea, soda ash, caustic soda, phosphate fertilizer, magnesium sulfate, sodium carbonate and other basic chemical products; Imports are mainly concentrated in technology and capital-intensive products. The appreciation of RMB is conducive to enhancing the competitiveness of high value-added products in the domestic market in the international market, and will also weaken the price competitive advantage of resource chemical products in the international market. However, chemical products that are not directly affected by RMB appreciation are mainly protected by non-tariff barriers, and high tariffs exceeding quotas can alleviate the impact of price drop on the domestic market.
The long-term impact of exchange rate rise on petrochemical industry is mainly reflected in demand. China petrochemical industry is driven by domestic demand, and our research shows that the petrochemical industry is driven by the ability of independent economic growth. A rising exchange rate will reduce domestic demand and ultimately affect economic growth. The long-term impact on the petrochemical industry will even be greater than the short-term price conversion fluctuation.
1. Crude oil exploitation industry
At present, China's dependence on oil imports has further increased. On the premise that the domestic crude oil price is priced according to the US dollars of the three international places, the appreciation of RMB is conducive to reducing the import cost of crude oil, but the price of domestic crude oil mining industry is also reduced accordingly. Even the impact on the mining industry is relatively negative.
2. Oil refining industry
The appreciation of RMB makes the cost of crude oil procurement relatively lower in a short time, but it is not the main factor affecting the refining industry.
3. Chemical raw material industry
At present and in the next few years, the domestic synthetic resin, synthetic rubber and synthetic fiber market may still be in a pattern that imports are greater than exports. However, the appreciation of RMB may reduce the price of imported products and intensify competition in the domestic market.
4. Chemical products industry
The impact of RMB appreciation on chemical products needs to be analyzed from the upstream cost transfer and product market competition mode. The international market may weaken the price competitiveness, but this is only one aspect that affects the comprehensive competitiveness of products and cannot be generalized. It is worth noting that the demand growth of downstream chemical products in the domestic market is the dominant factor affecting the pricing model and market size of various industrial chains in the domestic petrochemical industry, and the impact of RMB appreciation on the domestic market is a phased factor.
(9) Pharmaceutical industry
Generally speaking, because the pharmaceutical industry generally does not have the risk of exchange loss caused by borrowing a lot of foreign currency liabilities and the risk of cost change caused by relying on imported raw materials or production equipment, we mainly examine the impact of RMB appreciation on the pharmaceutical industry and listed companies from the change of accounting value of sales income caused by foreign currency income.
1. Chemical API industry
The export ratio of chemical raw materials is significant, and the price is determined by international supply and demand. The appreciation of RMB reduces the bookkeeping value of its income. If the RMB appreciates, it will directly lead to the price increase of export products, and then reduce the competitiveness of export products. From the perspective of export product structure, chemical raw materials account for about half of the total trade of pharmaceutical products, so the sub-industry of chemical raw materials is greatly affected. Especially the sales of raw materials (VC, penicillin salt, etc.). ) and professional APIs are mainly in foreign markets. The appreciation of RMB makes the competitiveness of products decline, and the manufacturers of such drugs will be hit hard.
The anti-tumor raw materials and statins of Haizheng Pharmaceutical (Information Market Forum), the antihypertensive, anti-AIDS and antidepressant raw materials of Huahai Pharmaceutical, and the vitamin C and antibiotic raw materials of Huabei Pharmaceutical (Information Market Forum) all come from China, but most of the finished products are exported, and the appreciation of RMB will reduce the competitiveness of export products and have an adverse impact on them.
2. Chemical drugs, biological drugs and traditional Chinese medicine
Chemical drugs and biological drugs: the import price of foreign new and special drugs will be reduced, which will indirectly reduce the profit margin of domestic generic drugs, and the price of domestic enterprises' products will be slightly reduced, but the overall impact is not great.
Traditional Chinese medicine industry: the purchase of raw materials and the sales of finished drugs are mostly domestic, and the change of exchange rate has little effect on it. In the long run, the appreciation of RMB will affect the speed and mode of economic growth, and consumer goods will replace investment products as the first driving force to promote economic growth. Traditional Chinese medicine has a good consumption base in China, especially the varieties with limited resources and strong monopoly, which are less affected by the substitution of imported goods and have the characteristics of sustained and stable growth driven by the improvement of residents' income level.
(10) Electric power industry
The proportion of foreign capital utilized by electric power enterprises in China is generally small, and the foreign debts used by some electric power enterprises are mainly in US dollars and Japanese yen, and most of them belong to long-term loans. According to China's current financial accounting system, the difference in foreign currency translation caused by exchange rate changes is directly included in the current profit and loss, which only affects its financial statements before the repayment period and does not affect its actual cash flow. According to preliminary statistics, in 2003, the exchange losses of listed power companies totaled about 230 million yuan, and Zhangze Power (Information Market Forum) (000767) is a typical example. Two 350MW generating units in Hejin Power Plant of Zhangze Electric Power Company were built with loans from Japan Overseas Cooperation Fund. By June 65438+February 3, 20021day, * * * had obtained a loan of 2177.7 million yen. In recent years, the yen exchange rate has fluctuated greatly. In 20001,2002 and 2003, Zhangze electric power exchange gains and losses were 265.438+0 billion yuan, 65.438+0.4 billion yuan and 65.438+0.10 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 265.4438+0 billion yuan of current operating profit. If RMB enters the appreciation channel, the performance of the power industry, which has suffered huge exchange losses, will be greatly improved.
In terms of investment in power equipment, all thermal power units below 300,000 kilowatts are produced in China, and the fuel is mainly purchased in China. The appreciation of RMB has reduced the cost of these thermal power enterprises. However, for some large oil-fired and gas-fired units and large-capacity, high-parameter and supercritical units, due to high external dependence, the appreciation of RMB means that the overall procurement cost is reduced. In terms of fuel cost, most domestic power generation enterprises use domestic coal except Huaneng International (Information Market Forum); For oil-fired power plants that import heavy oil and gas-fired power plants that import natural gas, the appreciation of RMB has a greater impact. Take Shennandian (Information Market Forum) (000037) as an example. The company imports 600,000 tons of heavy oil and 60,000 tons of light oil every year. If the RMB appreciates by 5%, the company's cost will be reduced by more than 60 million yuan.
(1 1) textile industry
The negative impact of RMB appreciation on textile industry should not be underestimated. According to research, for every appreciation of RMB 1%, the sales profit rate of textile industry will decrease by 2%-6%. If the RMB appreciates by 5%- 10%, the industry profit rate will decrease by 10%-60%. In particular, the garment industry, which is highly dependent on exports, suffered heavy losses. The profit rate of advanced enterprises in listed companies is high, which leads to the decline of the proportion of tradable goods in the cost, and the absolute amount of damage per 100 yuan is large, but the profit rate decreases slightly; In addition, the bargaining power is strong, so the negative impact of the appreciation of leading enterprises is less than that of the whole industry. However, if RMB continues to appreciate, the bargaining power of enterprises will be reduced, and the marginal negative effect of its appreciation will be enlarged. The overall damage degree of the industry-our judgment on the change of domestic product profit rate after appreciation is: theoretically, due to the existence of tradable products in the cost, the domestic product profit rate should rise. If we make a dynamic analysis, the decline in the profit rate of export products will inevitably lead to the "outward migration" of sales, and the "appreciation advantage" of domestic sales will soon disappear.
1. Cotton textile industry
In the cotton textile industry, raw materials account for 65% of the cost, and 80% belong to tradable goods. According to the statistics of relevant industry indicators, the average gross profit margin of cotton textile is set at 10%. The cotton textile industry is dominated by primary products such as cotton yarn and grey cloth. Due to the high proportion of raw materials linked to international prices, low added value and weak bargaining power, 90% of the appreciation pressure is borne by itself, and exports are relatively damaged. Relevant statistics show that the export dependence of cotton textile is 20%, and the overall damage degree of cotton textile industry is as follows: every appreciation of RMB 1%, the industry profit rate drops by 3. 19%. If dynamic analysis is made, the export damage of cotton textile will also be transmitted to the upstream, and the final result should be that the cotton textile industry is slightly higher than 3. 19%.
2. Wool textile industry
Raw materials in wool textile industry account for 60% of the cost, and 90% belong to tradable goods. According to the statistics of relevant industry indicators, the average gross profit margin of cotton textile industry is set at 12%. Although the wool textile industry is dominated by imported wool raw materials, due to the long industrial chain and high added value, the bargaining power of products is stronger than that of cotton textile and weaker than that of clothing, and the export is relatively damaged. Relevant statistics show that the export dependence of wool textile is 27%, and when RMB appreciates 1%, the overall damage degree of wool textile industry is 2.27%. If the dynamic analysis, because wool textile is also the upstream of clothing, the export damage of clothing will also be transmitted to the upstream, and the final result should be that the wool textile industry is slightly higher than 2.27%.
3. Clothing industry
In the clothing industry, raw materials account for 55% of the cost, and 30% are tradable goods. According to the statistics of relevant industry indicators, the average gross profit margin of cotton textiles is set at 14%. Deep-processed products such as clothing industry have obvious comparative advantages because they contain more labor value, and their prices are lower than those of similar international products by more than 15%, so they have strong bargaining power. Assuming that 40% appreciation pressure can be transmitted by raising foreign currency prices, the relative damage degree of exports ranks in the middle of the three sub-industries. Relevant statistics show that the garment industry has the highest dependence on exports, accounting for 60%, and the garment industry suffers the most. With the appreciation of RMB 1%, the overall damage degree of the clothing industry shows that the profit rate of the industry has decreased by 6. 18%. If dynamic analysis is carried out, the damage of clothing export will also be transmitted to the upstream, and the final result should be that the damage degree of clothing is slightly lower than 6. 18%.
Analysis of the influence of RMB appreciation on various industries
The appreciation of RMB will mainly rely on foreign procurement of raw materials or equipment, and industries with greater liquidity will benefit for a long time; It will generate one-time exchange gains for industries with large foreign debts in US dollars, which will be favorable in the short term; However, the impact on export-oriented industries and industries with international pricing of products is more severe, which is a long-term negative.
The appreciation of RMB has two direct impacts on listed companies: one is the direct and substantial impact on the cost and performance of listed companies, and the other is the significant impact on the financial statements of listed companies.
As we all know, iron ore imported from China accounts for half of domestic consumption; Imported crude oil accounts for nearly 1/3 of domestic consumption. Due to the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, the cost of importing these raw materials by Chinese enterprises will be reduced accordingly. On the one hand, the rise in international commodity prices has led to a corresponding increase in the prices of domestic related products. On the other hand, the appreciation of RMB has reduced the import cost of raw materials, which will inevitably enhance the performance of domestic related listed companies and their stock investment value under other conditions unchanged. Once institutional investors have the above expectations, they will buy the stocks of related industries and related listed companies in advance, thus promoting the stock prices of these industries and companies to rise.
However, the appreciation of the renminbi tends to curb exports. For enterprises whose main business is export or whose products have a large export share, their performance is likely to be affected to a certain extent, and their stocks will also be sold by investors. Similarly, like those enterprises that use more imported raw materials, due to the appreciation of RMB, that is, the depreciation of foreign currency, the prices of imported goods have a downward trend, and those enterprises that mainly import may benefit from it, and their stocks should also rise.
Let me talk about the impact on the financial statements of listed companies. For companies with B-shares and/or H-shares or listed overseas, if their performance remains unchanged, when these listed companies convert their RMB accounting statements into US dollars and Hong Kong dollars according to international accounting standards or the requirements of overseas stock markets (that is, B-share market and H-share market), the appreciation of RMB will lead to a corresponding increase in their book performance, thus correspondingly increasing the investment value of B-shares, H-shares and overseas listed stocks.
(1) If all the currencies traded by a listed company are RMB, that is, the company buys in China and sells in China, and both the outflow and inflow are RMB. As mentioned above, assuming that its business scale, cost and performance remain unchanged, its A-share value will remain unchanged after RMB appreciation, but its book performance and B-share /H-share and overseas listed shares will increase accordingly after being converted into US dollars and Hong Kong dollars.
(2) Procurement is abroad, and sales are also abroad. Both the outflow and inflow are foreign currencies. Assuming that its operating performance remains unchanged, the investment value of its B /H shares and overseas listed shares has not changed theoretically after RMB appreciation, but its A-share value may decrease accordingly.
(3) Purchasing is at home and selling is abroad, that is, RMB flows out and foreign currency flows in. Assuming that the scale of outflow and inflow remains unchanged, the value of B shares /H shares and overseas listed stocks should not change theoretically after RMB appreciation, and the value of A shares should be reduced accordingly.
(4) Foreign procurement, domestic sales (such as foreign trade companies engaged in import), that is, foreign currency flows out and RMB flows in. Assuming that the outflow is before the appreciation of RMB and the inflow is after the appreciation of RMB, its purchase