[Abstract] This paper first analyzes the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the expectations of buyers, government policies and bank management concepts in China real estate market, and then focuses on the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the long-term trend of the domestic real estate market, and tries to establish a demand model of the domestic real estate market. On this basis, this paper looks forward to the domestic real estate market and puts forward corresponding countermeasures.

[Keywords:] subprime mortgage crisis real estate market

I. Introduction

At present, with the deepening and deterioration of the subprime mortgage crisis, the shadow of a global financial crisis has begun to appear. In the final analysis, the reason why the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is getting worse and worse lies in the heavy blow to market confidence, in addition to the fact that the subprime mortgage has amplified the risk by a factor of high times through securitization. Panic and doubts about the subprime mortgage crisis will spread to other consumer credit markets such as automobiles, education funds, credit cards, and corporate bonds, which will seriously affect corporate financing, thus triggering a crisis in the US and global financial markets. Since the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, it has also had a wide and far-reaching impact on China. Among them, the impact on China's real estate market has attracted much attention. It is worth noting that China's current excess liquidity, relatively low interest rates and unprecedented prosperity of the real estate market are exactly the same as those of the United States three years ago. Will there be a large-scale credit crisis in China's mortgage market? This article will discuss this topic.

Second, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the real estate market in China.

1. Affect the expectations of buyers.

Property buyers are extremely sensitive to the expectations of the real estate market, and it is a common mentality to "buy up and not buy down". Since 200 1, the rise of American property market has greatly boosted the confidence of China buyers and played a certain role in the rapid rise of housing prices. However, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis made domestic buyers realize that there is no real estate market that only rises but does not fall, and then they changed from enthusiastic buying into the market to holding money to wait and see, which showed a sharp decline in transaction volume and stagflation of house prices. Beginning in the autumn of 2007, it started from the Pearl River Delta such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, and gradually spread to first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. Declining transaction volume, stagflation and even falling house prices have become the focus of media reports. According to the latest survey data released by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Bureau of Statistics, the average selling price of houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide only increased by 0.3% from the previous month. Although the overall housing price level has risen slightly, the sharp decrease in transaction volume has changed the situation of the property market in many areas, and there are more and more phenomena of price reduction in various names and ways.

2. Affect government policies and bank management concepts.

The subprime mortgage crisis has had a far-reaching impact on the government's real estate policy. "It not only broke the myth that domestic real estate mortgage loan is a high-quality asset, but also changed the central government's view on domestic real estate development" (Yi Xianrong 2007).

First of all, many commercial banks relax the market access of individual housing mortgage loans, and then relax risk management after lending. Before the third quarter of 2007, domestic individual housing mortgage lenders generally got loans as long as they bought them, and some people used false income certificates and other false documents to make "fake mortgages", plus a large number of mortgage products such as "revolving loans", "mortgage increase" and "sub-mortgage". If house prices continue to slump and interest rates continue to rise, the burden on buyers will gradually increase, a large number of defaulting customers will appear, and banks will also have a large number of non-performing loans. Secondly, the rapid growth of bank personal housing mortgage loans has become a booster for the skyrocketing housing prices. From the beginning of 2003 to the end of 2006, personal housing consumption loans increased by 654.38+0.8 billion yuan; In 2007, the growth of individual housing mortgage loans was close to the sum of the previous four years, reaching more than 900 billion yuan (see the monetary policy implementation report of the People's Bank of China for data). A large number of speculators used bank leverage and low interest rate policy to speculate wildly in the domestic real estate market, which led to a rapid rise in house prices.

There are indications that the risks of individual housing mortgage loans in China are gradually accumulating. According to the report of Shanghai Oriental Morning Post in June 165438+ 10/5, in 2006, the non-performing rate of personal mortgage of Chinese banks in Shanghai was 0.86% at the end of September of that year, while it was only about 0. 1% in 2004, and the non-performing rate of personal mortgage increased by 7% in two years. Therefore, since the second half of 2007, the management has launched a series of policies to curb excessive speculation in real estate, such as No.24, No.359, No.64, No.39, No.452, etc ... The policy implications of these documents include: First, comprehensively establish the housing security system in China; Second, strictly distinguish the investment and consumption of China real estate; Third, improve the market access of individual housing mortgage loans; Fourth, commercial banks are completely prohibited from increasing mortgage loans and re-mortgage loans. The Central Economic Work Conference held in the winter of 2007 made a major adjustment to the monetary policy, and decided to implement a tight monetary policy, raise interest rates in a timely manner, and strictly control the scale of credit.

The change of government policy directly affects the management concept of banks, and the blind optimism and lax management of individual housing mortgage loans have become a thing of the past. Since 2008, personal loan applicants should not only provide proof of income, credit history, company salary certificate, education, etc. , but also to the bank to submit their own salary card for more than 3 months of capital statements, so as to prevent lenders from providing false proof of income. The implementation of these regulations will affect more than 30% of home buyers, and more than half of home buyers' loan applications will be rejected.

3. Affect the long-term trend of the domestic real estate market

(1) The subprime mortgage crisis reflects the potential crisis of the real estate market in China.

The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, like a mirror, also reflects a large number of hidden problems in China's real estate market. In addition to the problems mentioned above, this paper analyzes the potential crisis of China real estate market from the following two aspects.

① The domestic real estate market is rising too fast.

Judging from the speed of price increase, if 2003 is taken as the base period, the house price in most parts of the country will increase by at least 1 times, or even more than 2 times. In the United States, from 1995 to 2006, the house price doubled, and it took 12 years. It can be seen that in recent years, the price increase in China has far exceeded that in the United States.

② Default risk

Default risk refers to the loss caused to the bank by the borrower's delay or refusal to repay the loan according to the contract. At present, the risk of domestic mortgage default is increasing. First of all, China has entered the cycle of raising interest rates, and the sharp rise in loan interest rates has increased the repayment burden of buyers. The central bank raised interest rates seven times in a row, but due to the intensification of inflation, domestic residents' consumption expenditure began to increase, but the expected income was unknown, which further increased the difficulty of repaying loans. When the loan interest rate rises to a certain extent and the risk is tired to a certain extent, the default rate will rise sharply. Secondly, China's housing price evaluation system is still chaotic, and borrowers can get loans from banks by overestimating housing prices. When there is a large-scale default, the original estimated price is obviously high because of the falling house price, and the cost of the bank's disposal of assets, the collateral can not make up for the bank's losses after disposal. Thirdly, the construction of real estate financial market lags behind, and the risk of mortgage default in China is basically concentrated in the banking system. If house prices plummet, these accumulated default risks will bring huge non-performing loans to China's commercial banking system.

(2) The subprime mortgage crisis reminds us to rethink the demand of the domestic real estate market.

Before the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, the popular saying in the domestic real estate industry was that China has a large population and a small land, and the housing demand is rigid. However, the experience of subprime mortgage crisis makes it necessary for us to rethink the demand of domestic real estate market. This paper holds that the domestic real estate market demand should be divided into three categories: owner-occupied demand, value-preserving demand and speculative demand, rather than simply divided into two categories. In order to facilitate reasoning, this paper attempts to establish the following simple real estate demand model.

① Self-occupation demand: this kind of demand refers to the self-occupation demand and payment ability of buyers, which is recorded as D 1, and is generally positively related to the actual disposable income of residents. The proportion of buyers who expect the house price to rise to the total buyers, e, is negatively related to the house price p, loan difficulty d and interest rate r, which can be simplified as:, where k stands for other factors that determine independent demand, such as population growth rate, marriage rate and urbanization rate. , which is generally a constant, is generally described by k to simplify the problem. It can be seen that at present, due to the intensification of inflation, the real disposable income of residents is growing slowly, and E is on the decline as mentioned above. From the annual point of view, in 2007, the house price P soared compared with that in 2006, the loan difficulty D increased, and the interest rate R rose. It can be seen that since the second half of 2007, the domestic demand for self-occupied real estate has been strongly suppressed.

② Value-preserving demand: This kind of demand refers to the purchase demand formed by buyers for the purpose of value preservation, and is recorded as D2, which is generally positively related to the actual disposable income Y of residents and the proportion E of buyers who expect the house price to rise among the total buyers, and negatively related to the interest rate R ... which can be simplified as:, where H represents other factors that determine the hedging demand. Similarly, since the second half of 2007, the demand for hedging has been declining and restrained.

(3) Speculative demand: This kind of demand refers to the purchase demand formed by property buyers for the purpose of speculative appreciation, and it is recorded as D3, which is generally positively related to the total speculative capital L of real estate and the proportion E of property buyers who expect house prices to rise in total buyers, and negatively related to loan difficulty D and interest rate R, which can be simplified as:, where U represents other factors that determine speculative demand. Judging from the situation in the second half of 2007, although the total amount of funds involved in real estate speculation is still increasing, due to the decline of E and the increase of R, especially the substantial increase of D, the leverage of speculative capital in using bank credit has been greatly reduced, which has greatly suppressed the demand for real estate speculation.

To sum up, the real estate demand D=D 1+D2+D3 includes self-occupation demand, value preservation demand and speculative demand, among which speculative demand is dominant, and some cities accounted for more than 80% last year. In the short term, domestic real estate demand is affected by the subprime mortgage crisis, and it is an indisputable fact that there has been an overall decline since the second half of 2007.

(3) The subprime mortgage crisis has a far-reaching impact on the problem of excess liquidity that pushes up domestic housing prices.

From the above, it can be seen that the total amount of social speculative capital L is the main factor for the formation of domestic real estate speculative demand, and excess liquidity has always been the main source of social speculative capital, the main factor for promoting the rise of domestic housing prices, and it has always been a difficult problem for the central bank to solve. The impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the control of excess liquidity in China cannot be ignored.

On the one hand, it affects China's trade surplus with the United States. China's exports to the United States account for more than half of China's total exports. The subprime mortgage crisis plunged the American economy into recession and reduced the demand for China goods. At the same time, the Federal Reserve once again adopted the policy of relaxing monetary policy and put more pressure on RMB appreciation. In 2008, China's export situation is not optimistic, and its trade surplus will decrease. Although this has brought some negative impacts on China's economic development, it will also slow down the growth of high trade surplus and relieve the pressure of controlling excess liquidity caused by the excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves.

On the other hand, accelerate the influx of international speculative capital. As the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, China's room for raising interest rates was limited. However, due to domestic inflationary pressure, China will raise interest rates in 2008, the spread between China and the United States will increase, and the influx of international speculative capital will accelerate, further expanding its own excess liquidity, thus making it difficult for China to control the excess liquidity problem.

Judging from the implementation of monetary policy in June 5438+ 10, 2008, the implementation of tight monetary policy is not ideal, and the money supply is growing rapidly. M2 increased by 18.94% year-on-year, setting a new high in recent 19 months. The main reason is that domestic monetary and credit growth has rebounded in an all-round way. 5438+ 10 The new loans in June were 803.6 billion yuan, an increase of 200 billion yuan year-on-year, a record high. Therefore, at present, the task of controlling the flood of liquidity, preventing the overheating of fixed assets investment and the overall rise of price level is still the top priority of the central bank.

(4) The long-term trend of domestic real estate market.

First of all, from the perspective of real estate supply, due to the monopoly of land resources by the state and the investment inertia of real estate developers, the domestic real estate supply will continue to maintain a steady and slightly rising trend in a certain period of time.

Secondly, from the perspective of real estate demand, from the above analysis:

The demand for real estate is greatly influenced by the proportion of buyers who expect the house price to rise to the total number of buyers and the interest rate R. Although it has started to fall from a high level, the current E is unstable. If speculative capital sets off a new wave of speculation, E may be upside down. And the increase of r is limited. Moreover, from the previous article, due to the increase of social speculative capital L brought by excess liquidity, the rising impulse of speculative demand is still great. At present, speculative demand is the leading force to determine domestic real estate demand.

In a word, domestic inflation pressure is huge at present. 1 month CPI increased by 7. 1% year-on-year, and the credit scale also increased significantly. The negative interest rate is very obvious, and the fuse of irrational inflation in the stock market and real estate market has not been lifted. Since the second half of last year, the short-term trend of the domestic real estate market has gradually declined and returned to rationality. However, in the medium and long term, the high operation of housing prices will continue, and the possibility of a new round of skyrocketing will not be ruled out. Whether this is the case or not depends on the determination and effect of the central government to implement the austerity policy.

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For reference only, please learn by yourself.

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