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How to treat the current economic situation in China correctly? Write a paper of 1000 words and kneel down.
Advocating vigorously developing the capital market is trying to make stock wealth create more income through the capital market. Capital market is a mechanism for allocating stock resources. Through the valuation and securitization of assets, it makes assets flow and stock wealth increase. In this way, the society is in a very benign state: on the one hand, the current economy has increased and the income level has improved, which is mobility; On the other hand, the wealth created in the past is also increasing in value. Together, the two incomes are the way to form wealth in a well-off society. The goal of economic growth is to make all China people live a comfortable life. I often see many people working overtime, which is very hard; China people are the hardest working people in the world, aren't they? Whether at home or abroad, they do things that make money whenever they have time. We should also take a break and create a new way of life. Let today's income guarantee today's life, and let those assets bought in the past guarantee future life through appreciation.

In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, we have made great achievements. China has changed from a poor, backward and closed country into a modernized well-off country. China has become the third largest economy in the world, and its international influence is increasing day by day. In the past 30 years, the face of China has undergone fundamental changes. The world has paid attention to China's extraordinary achievements, but many people in the world are jealous of the rise of China. The rise of China is really changing the global economic structure, so some people will feel a little uncomfortable. But I don't think anyone can stop China's progress.

In the prosperous Tang Dynasty, China was the center of the world. At that time, China's GDP was much larger than that of the United States today, accounting for more than 40% of the global GDP. After a thousand years, China has finally ushered in a new period of prosperity. This is entirely due to the correct path we have taken in the past 30 years of reform and opening up. We are an economic power now, but becoming an economic power is not our goal. I believe that China will definitely become an economic power, even a very powerful country in all aspects. We have the ability and wisdom. In the process of transforming from an economic power to an economic power, we will certainly encounter many difficulties. Today, China's economic development has entered a new round of adjustment period, and we will face more complicated contradictions, some of which have not been encountered in the past 30 years of reform and opening up. The State Council, the CPC Central Committee, attaches great importance to the new problems and contradictions in the process of China's reform and development, grasps the overall situation, sizes up the situation, constantly adjusts policies and resolves contradictions, so China's economy and society are still developing in a good direction.

1. China is in a period of rapid economic growth.

Since the beginning of this year, China's economic growth is still very fast. At the beginning of the year, the government work report stated that in 2008, China's economic growth rate remained at 8%, and CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose by 4.8%. This is very robust, and it is understandable that it may exceed this index in the actual implementation process. Judging from the economic operation in the first half of the year, our economic growth remained at 10.4%, which was lower than last year's1/0/0.4%. CPI rose by 7.9% in the first half of the year. On the whole, the price rise has been contained and the economy is still running at a high speed.

China is currently in the middle stage of industrialization. To become a modern country, it must go through a long period of industrialization. For a country like China, there is no modernization without industrialization. Without modern manufacturing and modern core equipment enterprises, how can we become an economic power? We should promote industrialization and make up the course of industrialization. China came from an agricultural society, or a society in which the agricultural economy dominated. Generally speaking, our level of industrialization is still backward. The backward level of industrialization will bring many problems, including social order and modern ethics, which are lacking. Therefore, industrialization is a comprehensive index, which constantly promotes economic development and can bring about all-round social progress. Social progress is our fundamental goal. Now we are still in the middle and late stage of industrialization, and a basic feature of this period is rapid economic growth. The modernization process of Japan and South Korea has experienced rapid economic growth for ten or even twenty years. Without the rapid economic growth in these ten or twenty years, there would be no Japan and South Korea today. China is also going through this process, and China's economy is much larger than then. Since 2000, China's economy has entered the take-off stage, and our rapid economic growth will be maintained until 2020. By then, China will surpass Japan, and its economy should be equivalent to that of the United States. We will probably surpass Japan in 20 12 and become the second largest economy in the world. It will take us another eight years to approach the level of the United States in terms of economic aggregate. Of course, some American economists believe that China's economy will surpass that of the United States in 2028. This is optimistic. Therefore, our economy will continue to grow. In the process of sustained growth, it is necessary to adjust economic policies in time to enhance the economic structure and industrial competitiveness.

Second, the core issues facing China's macro economy at present

China is now the third largest economy in the world. By the end of this year, the per capita GDP will reach 3,000 US dollars, which is close to the level of middle-income countries. Generally speaking, especially in a country with a large economy, the per capita GDP is 3,000 US dollars, which means that the economic structure of this country needs to be upgraded and the industrial structure needs to be greatly adjusted. In the process of economic restructuring and industrial upgrading, the relationship between inflation, economic growth, employment and the development of small and medium-sized enterprises is a problem that must be faced squarely. This is like the first economic system reform and market economy development in China in the early 1990s, which brought shocks to many state-owned enterprises at that time. Thanks to the correct direction and proper policies, we were lucky to get through the difficulties. Now that we have entered a new era, what should our small and medium-sized enterprises do? How does this policy balance inflation and economic growth?

The adjustment of economic structure includes two aspects, namely, structural upgrading and industrial transfer. China's coastal areas and economically developed areas should be places where high-tech industries and modern industries develop. In the process of industrial upgrading, labor costs are also increasing, which brings challenges to labor-intensive industries.

We are in the period of comprehensive adjustment of economic structure and are facing many complicated problems. But the core issue is the relationship between maintaining sustained and stable economic growth and controlling inflation. Under normal circumstances, moderate inflation can drive economic growth, but if it is not handled well, it may make the economy enter stagflation. I think that when inflation exceeds 7%, controlling inflation should be the most important goal of economic policy. However, controlling inflation cannot excessively damage the foundation of sustained economic growth. Maintaining sustained and stable economic growth remains our top priority. Never think that just because China is a high-income country or a developed country, it can temporarily put aside its development and consider other issues.

We should fully realize that the inflation in China this year is different from that in the 1980s and 1990s. This year's inflation has two important characteristics: first, imported inflation, mainly the continuous rise of commodity prices, especially the rise of oil prices, has had an important impact on the overall price increase. Oil price is the benchmark of energy price, and oil is the king of resources. Its price increase will surely be passed on to China. China is an open country, and our demand for oil is very great. 50% of our oil is imported. Recently, the oil price has dropped from 147 USD per barrel to around 120 USD. The sharp fluctuation of oil price makes the world economy enter a period of sharp fluctuation, and the risk increases sharply. Although oil prices are falling now, high oil prices are still the basic trend, and this high oil price is related to the US dollar. We adopt a tight monetary policy, such as tightening the renminbi and tightening liquidity, so it is difficult for oil prices to fall. Textbooks say that by tightening the currency in circulation, the demand for goods can be reduced, thus lowering prices. Textbooks also say that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. In the final analysis, it is too much money that leads to rising prices. However, as far as oil prices are concerned, it is not the renminbi that has been issued too much, but the dollar that has been issued too much. Therefore, the United States has a great responsibility for the global economic turmoil, especially in the derivatives financial market. Why did China rise? The rise of China will change the global financial order and monetary system. Now the world uses the US dollar as the settlement currency and reserve currency, so the United States has been issuing currency. If RMB becomes an international reserve currency that can replace the US dollar in 20 years, it will play an important role in maintaining the stability of the global financial system and the global economic system.

The core symbol of China's rise is the rise of China's finance. In addition to the rise of industry and strong manufacturing industry, China must also have the rise of financial industry. The rise of China finance can change the global financial order and contribute to the stability of the global financial system. Without independent innovation and a strong financial system, China cannot become an economic power.

Another basic feature of current inflation is that it is cost-driven. The so-called cost-driven type has two meanings: First, the labor cost has greatly increased. The increase of labor cost is a sign of social progress, and all workers should get due benefits in the economic development of China. The ultimate goal of economic development is to improve people's social welfare and living standards. How to achieve this goal? First, by increasing the income of the labor force. In many coastal areas, why is there a labor shortage in enterprises? Because the income of workers has not been improved enough. The improvement of workers' income level is the symbol of China's modernization.

Second, the price of resources has risen. Iron ore, all kinds of nonferrous metals and even fresh water will increase in price. The rise of price, in a sense, is also the adjustment of interest relationship, which is to dynamically seek the balance point of interest. The economic system reform that began 30 years ago is very important to reform the rigid price system. During the planned economy period, price control stifled the economy, and without profit, there would be no motive force for economic development. The price is so low that many people will use up scarce resources. In fact, we should pay more attention to supply now. China's achievements in the past 30 years of reform and opening up lie in the fact that China has a very strong market-oriented supply system. Earthquake relief shows our strong supply capacity. If we go back to the disaster of Wenchuan earthquake 30 years ago, let alone three months, it will be difficult to stabilize the lives of local people. More than 4 million people were directly affected and 30 million people were indirectly affected. We stabilized within three months, and we relied on a strong supply system. This is the result of 30 years of reform and opening up. In addition, our government is a responsible government, so it is difficult for China to have hyperinflation.

Raising deposit and loan interest rates is regarded as a means to shrink liquidity. Under the current conditions, raising the deposit and loan interest rate may create greater liquidity, which may promote inflation. Why? This involves the exchange rate mechanism and international hot money. China's economy is becoming more and more open and complicated, unlike simple economic activities 20 years ago. When inflation comes, we know what the reasons are and what measures should be taken. Today's economic structure is too complicated. If the deposit and loan interest rate is raised, the liquidity can be reduced without considering the exchange rate expectation. But under the current exchange rate mechanism, it will bring more international hot money, that is, hot money.

Why does hot money try to enter the China market? Because the RMB is appreciating. We have increased by 6.3% this year, that is, at the beginning of the year, 1 USD was converted into RMB, and now we have earned 6.3% through exchange rate changes. At the same time, our deposit interest rate is 4.65,438+04% (one-year fixed deposit), which adds up to about 65,438+00.5%. In other words, before the end of the year, the income has reached 10.5%, and there is no risk.

Regarding hot money, we must first know which channels it comes from. You can't try to close the door because of the entry of hot money. Opening-up is the main theme of China today. China will never return to the closed era. Only openness can make China strong. It is very wrong to close the door for fear of flies coming in. Hot money enters through various channels. Local governments attract investment is a very important channel, as well as foreign direct investment, which exaggerates prices in economic and trade, and many individuals bring it in themselves. International hot money, or short-term capital flows, will definitely flow out once the time is ripe. If the flow is very large and urgent, it will have an impact on China's financial system, especially the monetary system. A country's financial crisis will eventually turn into a currency crisis.

I have the following views on hot money: First, don't be afraid of hot money. There are so many foreign capitals entering China because of the sustained economic growth and stable economic environment in China, and people have good expectations. In fact, we will exist with hot money, and it is impossible to eliminate hot money. The problem lies in timely guidance. At the same time, it is necessary to turn hot money into normal short-term capital flow through reform. Therefore, efforts should be made to promote the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism. At present, the central bank deals with individuals and enterprises. In the future, the main body of foreign exchange market transactions should be business-to-business transactions, and the risks will be dispersed to enterprises.

Second, take technical measures to prevent these hot money coming in in the form of platoon and battalion from going out in the form of group army at some time in the future. Large-scale outflow of hot money will bring great impact to a country's monetary system. We now have 1.8 trillion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves, which are distributed in different assets according to a certain structure. We can't change these reserves into cash. If hot money goes out in the form of a group army, the structure of liabilities and assets may not match, and a crisis will arise. The financial crisis in South Korea is related to the structural imbalance of assets and liabilities. In a country's financial system, if a single bank has a payment crisis caused by a serious imbalance in its asset-liability structure, the central bank usually provides liquidity to help it tide over the crisis. But internationally, if a country's financial system is in crisis, the IMF will also provide help, but this help must be based on paying a huge price.

It is necessary to prevent hot money from going out in the form of group army from policy and technology. Foreign exchange management should do a lot of detailed work, constantly adjust the structure of foreign exchange assets and guard against future financial risks.

Three. Environmental protection and sustainable utilization of resources

The protection and sustainability of environment and resources is an important issue in the current economic development of China, and it may also be a long-term issue. The first is the relationship between harmful gas emission reduction and industrialization. With the development of human society, the whole atmospheric environment has been destroyed, and the glaciers in the Antarctic and Arctic are melting. Industrialization has increased greenhouse gas emissions and threatened the living environment of human beings. In this regard, we have made emission reduction commitments that match our economic development. The United States is the country that emits the most greenhouse gases in the world. In recent years, China's greenhouse gas emissions have increased rapidly. But China is a developing country, and China and the United States cannot undertake the same obligations. Nevertheless, we should attach great importance to environmental protection, because there is only one earth.

Secondly, the ecological environment has deteriorated. From south to north, our water has been polluted to varying degrees, especially in more developed areas. The ultimate goal of economic development is to make people's lives better, and we can never forget this ultimate goal. If the per capita GDP reaches 1 10,000 dollars or 20,000 dollars, you can't drink water. What is the use of GDP? Therefore, protecting the environment, especially water resources, should be placed in the most important position. It is too difficult to treat the polluted environment, and it will cost a lot of money.

The third is the protection and sustainable utilization of natural resources. Our current economic growth model is very worrying. Lack of resources and environmental pollution. How should our descendants survive? The United States has much to learn from the protection and sustainable utilization of oil, coal, water and various mineral resources. The offshore oil fields and coal mines in the United States are not developed, and the resources are well protected. The United States does not develop its own underground resources, but mainly buys them from other countries. In this sense, Americans are selfish. We don't learn the selfish side, but we should learn the environmental protection side. We can't exhaust our own resources. We should also learn to protect resources now. It is necessary to learn capital operation and realize the allocation of global resources through the capital market. A considerable part of China's foreign exchange reserves should be used in this respect. Without the support of overseas resources, the economic growth of a big country like China is unsustainable.

Finally, the survival, development and employment of small and medium-sized enterprises in the process of economic transformation. Our support for SMEs is not enough. More attention should be paid to the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, especially in monetary policy, fiscal policy and tax policy.

4. What kind of macroeconomic policies should we make?

We should find a deep balance between solving the above problems. Great changes have taken place in China's economic structure, and a single policy goal is not enough. We must make overall plans and adhere to the concept of Scientific Outlook on Development and people-oriented. This is the guiding ideology for formulating macroeconomic policies.

As mentioned above, we should correctly handle the relationship between sustained and steady economic growth and inflation control. At the same time, it is necessary to control energy-intensive enterprises. China's economic growth needs to be driven by the growth of domestic demand. Countries like China have long tried to stimulate economic growth through exports, external demand and consumption in the United States and Europe, and there are serious structural defects. This growth model is definitely problematic. We must rely on domestic demand, and we must complete the transformation of economic growth mode. To stimulate domestic demand, we must first raise the income level of economic subjects related to domestic demand, especially workers. This involves another important issue: income distribution. Economic growth and income distribution policies should pay more attention to people's livelihood. Can we adjust the income distribution structure and reduce taxes appropriately? In particular, China needs to use tax policies flexibly from the perspective of economic development. At present, the focus of tax policy application is to reduce the tax rate or increase the tax base. As for the threshold of personal income tax, due to the rapid development of our society, it is suggested to further raise the threshold. In this way, if money stays, people will consume it and stimulate economic growth.

Strive to increase the property income of the masses. This is actually saying that we should pay full attention to the growth of stock wealth and the redistribution of stock resources. There is a negative factor in our culture, that is, we don't pay attention to the stock, but only care about the flow and increment. This is actually a disrespect for the achievements and history of our predecessors. We often see many buildings being blown up now. Many of these buildings were built 10 years ago, which constituted the GDP of that year. This building built 10 years ago is actually quite new. I visited universities in Europe and asked them to show me the latest buildings. Their latest buildings were built 10 and 15 years ago. Europeans attach great importance to history and the material and intangible wealth of their predecessors, and do their best to protect it. We didn't do it. This disrespect for history often exists in academic research, and plagiarism is a contempt for the achievements of predecessors. Write a paper of tens of thousands of words, without comments, saying that these are all my own creations. Didn't the previous research results have any influence on you? Not a note, not a sentence from an elder? As a graduate tutor, when I judge my graduate thesis, I should first look at the notes of the thesis to see whether the students respect the research results of predecessors. We must respect the past and the achievements of others. Academic research should be like this, as should economic development and wealth creation.

On many occasions, I advocate vigorously developing the capital market, that is, trying to make stock wealth create more income through the capital market. Capital market is a mechanism for allocating stock resources. Through the valuation and securitization of assets, it makes assets flow and stock wealth increase. In this way, the society is in a very benign state: on the one hand, the current economy has increased and the income level has improved, which is mobility; On the other hand, the wealth created in the past is also increasing in value. Together, the two incomes are the way to form wealth in a well-off society. The goal of economic growth is to make all China people live a comfortable life. I often see many people working overtime, which is very hard; China people are the hardest working people in the world, aren't they? Whether at home or abroad, they do things that make money whenever they have time. We should also take a break and create a new way of life. Let today's income guarantee today's life, and let those assets bought in the past guarantee future life through appreciation.

When correctly handling the contradiction between economic growth and inflation, we should be good at using fiscal policies, including tax policies. China's fiscal revenue is growing rapidly. Can we keep part of this money in the private sector? China's economic growth depends on private demand. We should bid farewell to the era when government investment promoted economic growth. The role of private capital in promoting economic growth is lasting.

References:

Wen Wei Po