Needless to say, the national tourism industry may continue to grow at the end of 2008, but the decline in the performance of the travel agency industry is a foregone conclusion. The past Golden Week shattered people's desire for a "blowout" in tourism demand. The persistent global financial crisis, the news that western governments have stepped up efforts to rescue the market, and the rumors of domestic finance and real economy have begun, and the domestic tourism industry has completely bearish on the tourism market in 2009. At the just-concluded third annual meeting of China Travel Agency Association, the original theme was post-Olympic tourism, but later it unconsciously became how to deal with the "cold winter". After the Golden Week, the stable and slightly weak tourism market has aggravated the worries of the industry.

Is 2009 a disaster year or a small year? Not sure yet. For inbound tourism, it may basically be a disaster year. For domestic and outbound travel, it is difficult to judge; The current information may support the estimate of more than a few years. But it depends on the extent to which China's finance and economy are influenced by the West, and the effectiveness of our response to economic downturn, deflation, hard landing and risks. The whole situation is still in operation and will continue for some time.

Duan, everything remains to be seen.

Next year's travel agency market may have the following characteristics:

1, high-end market, business travel and government travel demand are less affected by the economic situation;

2. Inbound tourism is greatly affected, while domestic tourism and outbound tourism are less affected than inbound tourism;

3. Long-term impact is greater, short-term impact is less, and there may be strong demand in the short term;

4. The market is more sensitive to price, and cheap travel is popular;

5. The purchase price may go down, which is beneficial to the travel agency;

6. With the promulgation and implementation of the new Regulations on the Administration of Travel Agency Industry, the threshold of travel agencies has been further lowered, and the competition in the same industry has become more intense;

7. It is more difficult to maintain the necessary cost performance, and travel complaints may increase;

8. M&A of travel agencies may accelerate;

9. Online travel will accelerate development;

10. In the game with scenic spots, transportation enterprises and hotels, the status of travel agencies may be improved;

1 1. There will be more and more parts and development opportunities in the market, and the winner will find and seize it first.

In 2008, China's tourism boom declined, and the low-speed growth or decline in performance will be the mainstream performance of listed companies in tourism this year, among which the companies with declining performance are mainly concentrated in the sub-sectors of scenic spots.

In 2009, there will be structural changes in the tourism sub-industry;

1. The sub-sectors of scenic spots are highly defensive, and companies with resource monopoly advantages and location advantages are more able to resist the negative impact of economic slowdown;

2. The hotel industry is obviously affected by the economic slowdown, high-star hotels are most affected by the economic slowdown, while budget hotels will slow down their expansion and their profitability will drop slightly;

3. Travel agencies are still in a state of meager profit.

Tourism is a weakly cyclical industry. The growth rate of tourism in 2009 was higher than that in 2008. We maintain an investment rating cautiously recommended by the industry.

In 2008, domestic tourism was affected by weather, Olympic Games and other factors, and its development was not optimistic. Insiders pointed out that domestic tourism will rebound in 2009 under the background of low tourism revenue base in 2008 and the government's policy of expanding domestic demand, but the rebound will not be too big, but it will only be a recovery growth.

The latest research report of CITIC Securities in February, 5438+2008 shows that the tourism industry in China in 2008 was greatly affected by natural disasters, Olympic Games, vacation system reform and other factors. The industry rebound in 2009 will be very certain, mainly because, first of all, the base in 2008 is low; Secondly, 70% of China's tourism revenue comes from domestic tourism, which is less affected by the financial crisis and the tourism demand is still relatively stable.

Chen Xiwei, an analyst of Guotai Junan Tourism Industry, told Shihua Finance reporter that the domestic tourism performance will pick up in 2009, but the rebound will not be too big, only limited to the recovery growth. Optimistic about the development of domestic tourism in 2009 is mainly based on three factors. First of all, in 2008, catastrophic events such as snowstorms, earthquakes and infectious diseases occurred frequently in China. The Olympic Games restricted the entry of tourists and cancelled the "May 1 Golden Week" in the first year, which caused great losses to the domestic tourism industry. Therefore, the income base in 2008 was low and it was relatively easy to rebound in 2009.

Secondly, the proportion of tourism in China's total economic output value is relatively small, reaching only 4.39% in 2007, so the correlation between tourism revenue and economic fluctuations is low. In addition, domestic tourists are still in the stage of sightseeing, tourism consumption expenditure is low, and tourism development is not sensitive to factors such as the slowdown of residents' income growth. In this case, the possible economic downturn and the decrease of per capita disposable income in China in 2009 have limited impact on tourism revenue.

Thirdly, under the background of domestic efforts to expand domestic demand and ensure economic growth, this article's tourism review (0) other comments initiated topics (0) related information and financial circles (0) tourism faces a good policy environment. It is understood that tourism has obvious characteristics of stimulating domestic demand, and tourism consumption includes a series of activities such as "food, clothing, housing and transportation", and its development is bound to drive the development of related industries. It is precisely because of the role of tourism in stimulating consumption and expanding domestic demand that domestic demand shrinks and is insufficient, so it is necessary to promote the development of tourism.

Chen Xiwei emphasized that the rebound of tourism in 2009 was only a recovery growth. First, affected by the global financial crisis, the external environment is more severe than that of China, and the recovery of inbound tourism is relatively slow. Secondly, domestic tourism, which accounts for 70% of tourism revenue, will not jump too much because of the lack of consumer confidence brought about by the economic downturn.

The National Holiday Office recently released the tourism statistics report of the "Eleventh" Golden Week in 2008. During the "Eleventh" Golden Week, the growth rate of tourists and income reached a six-year high, and the per capita consumption increased by 1.7% year-on-year. The proportion of one-day tours increased from 68% of 200 1 to 76%, and the mobility of tourists continued to increase. Industry insiders predict that the growth rate of tourism revenue in China will reach 20% in 2009.

Insiders pointed out that from September to 10, including Mid-Autumn Festival to National Day, the tourism market showed a "golden month" phenomenon. The high growth of "Golden Month" belongs to the normal range in the same historical event, and its greatest function is to repair the annual path of tourism, without any indication of future trends.

With the monthly recovery, the national tourism situation is expected to move closer to the normal track throughout the year. Before the growth trend of per capita disposable income shows no signs of deterioration, the recovery of tourism is gradually advancing, and it is expected to move closer to the normal track throughout the year.

The momentum of tourism growth next year may not be optimistic, and structural changes may produce a concentrated prosperity area. Facing the current more severe economic situation, compared with the historical situation, the travel situation may face the risk of a sharp decline in growth rate; However, with the improvement of people's living standards and the increase of workload.

In the case that the growth of tourism may slow down, in the new period when rest and work are in parallel, tourism, as an important leisure way, has certain rigidity; The situation that the growth momentum is not optimistic will not be reflected in the decline of the number of tourists, but may be more reflected in the decline of the growth rate and the contraction of the tourism radius. As a result, the regional distribution of the industry boom may undergo structural changes, from dispersion to concentration; The surrounding areas of tourists with strong ability to pay may form a prosperous zone different from other places.

In 2008, China's tourism performance declined. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of tourism slowed down due to factors such as the earthquake. Although the Golden Week of 1 1 month formed the peak of tourism in 2008, we predict that the annual growth rate of tourism will slow down to 65,438+00%, of which the growth rate of inbound and outbound tourism will drop slightly, while the growth rate of the dominant domestic tourism market will slow down to 65,438+02%. Low growth or decline in performance in 2008 will be the mainstream performance of tourism listed companies, among which the companies with declining performance are mainly concentrated in scenic sub-industries.

In 2009, tourism is expected to grow steadily under the background of economic slowdown: (1) In 2008, the tourism base is low, and some tourism demand is suppressed, which will promote the rapid growth of tourism revenue in 2009, but the economic slowdown will slow down the growth of tourism; (2) The dominant domestic tourism will continue to grow steadily for three reasons: the economic slowdown has led to an increase in domestic tourism consumption. Although the per capita tourism consumption growth has slowed down, the number of domestic tourists is expected to increase steadily, and the government supports vigorously developing tourism to stimulate tourism consumption; (3) The proportion of inbound and outbound tourism declined due to the economic slowdown is relatively small, among which outbound tourism is most obviously affected by the economic slowdown, and the expected decline rate of inbound tourism benefiting from the Olympic propaganda is lower than that of outbound tourism.

In 2009, there was a structural change in the tourism sub-industry: (1) The scenic sub-industry was highly defensive. Tourism is in the stage of sightseeing, and scenic spots benefit the most. The scenic spot companies with low base in 2008 will rebound in 2009. We expect that the performance of scenic spot companies will generally improve in 2009, and companies with resource monopoly advantages and location advantages can better resist the negative impact of economic slowdown; (2) The hotel industry is obviously affected by the economic slowdown, which shows that the occupancy rate decreases. The higher the star rating, the greater the decline in occupancy rate. High-star hotels are the hardest hit areas due to the economic slowdown. When the economy slows down, budget hotels will slow down their expansion and their profitability will drop slightly. (3) Travel agencies are still in a state of meager profit, and the economic slowdown led to a continuous decline in the operating conditions of travel agencies in 2009.

Industry rating and investment strategy: tourism is a weak cyclical industry. The growth rate of tourism in 2009 was higher than that in 2008. We maintain the industry's "cautiously recommended" investment rating. In 2009, the investment strategy of tourism industry is suitable for top-down mode, and the overall investment opportunities in sub-sectors are more significant. Optimistic about the sub-sectors of scenic spots, value investors can pay attention to Huangshan tourism, and radical investors can pay attention to scenic spot companies with improved performance such as Emei Mountain, Lijiang Tourism and Guilin Tourism. Hotel sub-sectors can pay attention to the theme investment opportunities brought by the World Expo and Shanghai Disneyland, and cautiously recommend Jinjiang shares.

According to the general market view, the biggest risk of China's tourism industry in 2009 comes from people's worries about the economic downturn. The economic downturn has led residents to adopt cautious consumption strategies, thus reducing the decline in demand for optional consumer goods such as tourism.

Then let's take a look at the proportion of tourism consumption expenditure with the increase of per capita income of urban and rural residents in recent years. It has been calculated above that from 1999 to 2007, the per capita disposable income of urban families in China increased from 5854 yuan to 13786 yuan in 2007, an increase of 1.35 times; The personal tourism consumption of urban residents only increased from 65438+6 15 yuan in 1999 to 907 yuan in 2007, an increase of only 0.47 times. From 1999 to 2007, the per capita net income of rural residents increased from 22 10 to 4 140 yuan in 2007, an increase of 0.87 times; However, the personal tourism consumption of rural residents in China dropped from 250 yuan in 1999 to 223 yuan in 2007. It can be seen that the wealth effect of residents is not reflected in the depth of personal tourism consumption, but in the breadth of national tourism.

In recent years, with the increasing income of urban and rural residents, the proportion of tourism consumption in the income and expenditure of urban and rural residents has been declining. In 2007, the proportion of urban residents' personal tourism consumption in urban residents' personal consumption expenditure has dropped to 6.6%, and the proportion of rural residents' personal tourism consumption in rural residents' living expenditure has dropped to 5.4%. The total tourism consumption expenditure of global residents accounts for more than 10% of the total global consumption.

We believe that because the proportion of tourism consumption in urban and rural residents' consumption expenditure is very low, even under pessimistic economic expectations, it is not particularly significant for people to reduce tourism expenditure for their own wealth accumulation. If the income grows rapidly and the personal travel expenses have not changed significantly, then even if the expected income has a negative growth in the short term, the personal travel expenses will not be significantly reduced.

For tourism consumption, some people think it is unnecessary to travel. In fact, tourism consumption plays a very important role in modern people's daily life. It can not only broaden the knowledge and expand the social circle, but also relieve the pressure and adjust the body and mind under the increasingly tense pace of life. Therefore, tourism consumption has become a normal consumption in developed countries, and this trend also exists in China.

Therefore, from an empirical point of view, even if the economic slowdown in 2009 will have a certain impact on tourism, then we should not exaggerate this impact.

In addition, compared with 2008, there are still many favorable factors for the development of tourism in 2009.

There should be no more emergencies in 2009 than in 2008, the worst performance in recent years. In 2008, China's tourism industry suffered the most unexpected events since 10. Although accidents are unpredictable, we believe that the probability of more accidents in 2009 is extremely low than that in 2008.

2. The advertising effect of the Olympic Games on tourism will gradually appear after 2009. According to international experience, after the Olympic Games, the inbound tourism of the host country will have an obvious boost period in 3-5 years. Of course, according to their own conditions, the influence of this post-Olympic effect and the dominant cycle are different. Under the compensation effect and advertising effect, we believe that the inbound tourism market in China will develop better in 2009. Because the price of China's tourism products is at a low international level, even if the external market economy declines, it is still attractive to international tourists.

3. After the earthquake, the requirement that the government and government organs and state-owned enterprises and institutions reduce public expenditure by 5% will be cancelled in 2009. After the "5. 12" earthquake, the State Council held a meeting to ask for nationwide support for the disaster-stricken areas in order to save construction funds. The economy begins with the party and government organs. The meeting asked party and government organs at all levels and state-owned enterprises and institutions to reduce the expenses of meetings, receptions, travel and bus use, and reduce the number of delegations going abroad on business. Strictly control the purchase of buses and suspend the examination and approval of office buildings of party and government organs. This year, the public expenditure of central state organs is reduced by 5% compared with the earthquake relief budget. This provision will be abolished in 2009. According to our preliminary understanding, about 10%-20% of domestic tourism revenue is contributed by public travel. It should be said that the proportion is still relatively high.

In 2009, people will gradually adapt to the new vacation system. 2008 is the first year when the new vacation system was formally implemented. It should be said that neither travel agencies nor domestic tourists have had time to adapt to this change. Moreover, the paid vacation system is also in the adaptation period, which leads to the poor performance of the four major holiday tourism markets in 2008. In 2009, travel agencies will better launch new products according to the new changes, tourists will better arrange their travel plans for small holidays, and the details of paid holidays are expected to be gradually introduced. Therefore, we have reason to believe that the tourism market for small holidays will perform better in 2009.

It is timely to support tourism and expand domestic demand. We know that tourism has a strong spillover effect. Relevant research shows that the income ratio between tourism and surrounding industries can reach 1: 4.3. In the case of sluggish external demand, it is imperative for the government to expand domestic demand if it wants to maintain stable economic development. It is a good idea to expand domestic demand by supporting tourism. In August 2008, with the consent of the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Tourism Administration, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China jointly issued the Guiding Opinions on Vigorously Developing Tourism to Promote Employment. The Opinions clearly pointed out that tourism is an important industry of the national economy and an important channel for expanding employment. It is an important and arduous task to develop tourism and promote employment. The "Opinions" also gives four main measures: First, increase the support of fiscal and taxation policies; The second is to strengthen infrastructure construction; The third is to improve the financial support policy; Fourth, actively provide tourism employment assistance. We believe that under the background of sluggish external demand and expanding domestic demand, tourism has also ushered in a period of policy opportunities.

From June 5438 to August 2008, the number of inbound tourists in China increased by 0.35% year-on-year, and the foreign exchange income of tourism decreased by 2.2 1% year-on-year, which should be said to be basically the same as last year. Since the National Tourism Administration only publishes the national domestic tourism data once a year, we can't know the year-on-year situation of domestic tourism revenue from June 5438 to August 2008. However, from the real-time monthly statistics of various places, except for a few disaster-stricken areas such as Sichuan, the tourism revenue of most areas achieved positive growth from June 5438 to August. September, 2008-65438+February, 2008, we think that both inbound tourism and domestic tourism should perform well. In 2007, the total tourism revenue of China increased by 22.6% year-on-year. On this basis, considering the impact of earthquake, snowstorm, "crowding-out effect" of Olympic Games and the reform of vacation system, it is preliminarily estimated that China's total tourism revenue will increase by 10%- 15% year-on-year.

Combined with the previous analysis, even considering the economic downturn in 2009 (the macro research conclusion of China Investment Securities Research Institute is that the 09GDP in 2009 will increase by 9.0%-9.5% year-on-year, and the market forecast is neutral), we think that the travel rate of China residents will still increase substantially in 2009 (the travel rate in 2008 has been greatly suppressed), because the per capita annual trips of urban and rural residents in China are only 1.2 times. Therefore, we believe that the economic downturn is more likely to affect the personal consumption expenditure of China tourists than the travel rate, and the rebound of the travel rate is enough to offset the possible decline of personal consumption expenditure. Changing outbound travel to domestic travel will also increase the income of domestic tourism. Inbound tourism will be better than in 2008. We preliminarily predict that the total tourism revenue of China will increase by 15%- 18% in 2009.

In 2009, tourism entered the coldest winter, and small and medium-sized travel agencies sought transformation.

The impact of the financial crisis on people's psychology and life has shrunk the long-distance outbound travel market, and many travel agencies in Shanghai have begun to adjust their routes and personnel deployment plans to cope with the upcoming "cold winter" of tourism.

Miss Lin, the operator of a private travel agency in Shanghai, told reporters that the number of guests who signed up for long-distance outbound travel has decreased significantly recently, and some tourists even signed up for European tours, but later they went to Hainan in order to reduce expenses. In addition, some travel agencies began to consider reducing long-term plans and increasing the allocation of short-term travel to attract customers with reduced travel budgets.

Tourism will face a "cold winter" next year.

"In the past, when the tourism market was good, the more expensive routes sold, the better. For example, China, Hongkong, Japan and other places are more expensive, which usually means that the quality of accommodation, food and sightseeing spots is relatively high. These routes are always sold out first. But now it's different, and expensive lines can't be sold. " Speaking of the current situation faced by travel agencies, the head of the exit department of a travel agency said helplessly.

Corresponding to the difficulty in selling high-priced routes, the relationship between travel agencies and some hotels and shopping spots has also reversed. "During the tourist season, the travel agency begged the hotel to stay as many rooms as possible; Now, the sales of some hotels and shopping spots come to our building all day, hoping to have more guests, and the relationship is completely reversed. " A related person from Shanghai Airlines International Travel Service told the reporter.

Industry insiders predict that next year will be the "cold winter" of tourism, and whether the travel agency can cross this hurdle next year is the key. No matter travel agencies, hotels, shopping spots or airlines, they all have to face this relatively unfavorable situation together.

Small and medium-sized travel agencies need to transform urgently.

"We expect that the biggest impact next year will be inbound tourism, followed by the reduction of long-distance outbound tourists." Relevant people said that in the face of the coming "cold winter", travel agencies are considering ways to deal with it. Because it is expected that the products of outbound and domestic travel routes below 10,000 yuan will sell well, the product focus of travel agencies will mainly tilt to this aspect, while some expensive routes will be reduced.

Ms. Lin, the manager of a private travel agency mainly engaged in long-distance travel in Europe, told the reporter that the price of European travel products is generally1.20,000-1.60,000 yuan or even higher. Considering that some guests have reduced their travel budget, the travel agency she runs has begun to adjust the route, adding some 7-8 days' trips and lowering the quotation. In addition to paying close attention to the market reaction, Miss Lin is still worried about next year: "If possible, I hope to do something else besides traveling next year to relieve the pressure."

The reporter learned that due to the pressure of personnel and operating costs, the hotel industry may feel the "chill" deeper than the travel agency. The system of small and medium travel agencies is relatively flexible. In addition to business turning, not recruiting new employees is also one of the ways to avoid risks. And some big travel agencies with strong pressure resistance are still adjusting and waiting to see the future market.