Standing on the node of the first anniversary of the outbreak of the international financial crisis, we can feel that although "the most difficult period has passed", the crisis is far from over, and its lessons and influence are far-reaching. As the root cause of the financial crisis has yet to be cured, the world economy is still facing very severe practical challenges: from the rise of global trade protectionism, to the difficulty in strengthening financial supervision in developed countries, and to the slow progress in the reform of the international financial system, the world economy has not embarked on the bright road of sustainable recovery. Comprehensive Xinhua News Agency report
Wall Street is at a crossroads.
On September 5, 2008, Lehman, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States with a history of 158, declared bankruptcy, and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States quickly evolved into a fierce financial storm. With this as a symbol, the worst global financial crisis and economic recession after World War II immediately kicked off. After this economic winter, people's understanding of the original financial world is gradually changing.
In response to the financial crisis, the international community has strengthened supervision to promote the world economy to return to the right track as soon as possible, and various government-level consultations related to this are still going on. So, a year later, after the worst economic recession in 70 years, has Wall Street reached a turning point?
Within two weeks after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the original major investment banks in the United States were either acquired or transformed into bank holding companies, and the traditional Wall Street disappeared. With the disappearance of the original major investment banks, the reshuffle of the new four major commercial banks, and the government's large-scale shareholding in financial enterprises, some derivatives have withdrawn from the historical stage.
The outbreak of the financial crisis finally prompted the United States to accelerate the pace of financial regulatory reform. On June 17 this year, the Obama administration officially announced an 88-page reform plan for the financial supervision system. This far-reaching regulatory plan covers almost all aspects of banks and markets, and the reform intensity is unprecedented since the 1930s.
However, this reform plan may be overwhelming for the Fed. According to Obama's plan, the Fed will be given the power to supervise all large financial institutions and supervise the overall systemic risks. The original intention of Obama's move is to change the complicated relationship and loopholes between regulators and financial institutions, but critics worry that it will put too much pressure on the Fed. In addition, it also caused the market to question the government's excessive supervision and stifle innovation. Undoubtedly, Wall Street is still at a crossroads, and there are still too many uncertainties about its future direction.
China has become an important driving force of the world economy.
In the context of the global economic recession, China's economy grew by 9% in 2008, contributing more than 20% to the world economy. In the first half of this year, China's GDP increased by 7. 1%, which is undoubtedly particularly striking when most countries in the world still have weak growth or even negative growth.
"In the next decade, Asia will play a very important role in global economic growth. Obviously, China is one of the very important growth drivers. The Asian Development Bank has a prediction that three of the world's four largest economies will be in Asia before 2040, namely China, Indian and Japanese, and they will make great contributions to global growth. " Zhao Xiaoyu, vice president of the Asian Development Bank, said.
Zhao Xiaoyu's views on the impact of China's economic growth represent the opinions of most people.
According to a global survey of new Asian leaders released by the Davos Forum in the summer, 70% of the respondents believe that by 2020, Asia led by China will become the most influential region in the global economy.
"Through China's economic growth, the global demand for resources has remained at a certain level, and the prices of resource products have not collapsed, but are stabilizing and rising. China's huge foreign exchange reserves have been invested in the US financial market, helping the rest of the world achieve interest rate stability. " Li Daokui, deputy director of China Economic Research Center in Tsinghua University, explained that China's growth during the international financial crisis contributed to the economies of other parts of the world.
Wei Junxian, vice president of Barclays Capital, said that the China administration's 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan is not only for China to cope with the financial crisis itself, but also for assuming the responsibility of being a global power, which is very important for the rest of the world to cope with the crisis.
The road to global recovery is full of dangers.
At the time of gradual recovery, there are different views on the prospects of the world, especially the developed economies. The proposal of V-shaped, U-shaped, W-shaped and L-shaped paths just shows the complexity and uncertainty of this recovery.
Optimists believe that the obvious improvement in a series of data shows that the current recovery momentum is strong. Many commercial research institutions have recently published reports that the probability of a V-shaped rebound in the US economy has greatly increased.
However, according to lawrence summers, White House economic adviser, and many other senior American economic figures, the V-shaped trend is unlikely to appear. Nouriel roubini, a professor at new york University who successfully predicted the current crisis, also pointed out that in the first few quarters, the U.S. economy will grow rapidly driven by restocking and output rising from the level close to the Great Depression, and then there will be a wide U-shaped trend, and the economy will be weak in the next few years, and the possibility of a second recession will not be ruled out.
There are also different opinions on the power source of global economic recovery in the future. In an exclusive interview with reporters, Kahn, president of the International Monetary Fund, believes that among the major economies in the world, the US economy will take the lead in recovery, and other economies will follow closely. However, Lin Yifu and other economists believe that among the major economies, China's economy has taken the lead in recovery, and unlike the previous situation, emerging economies are becoming the locomotive of world economic recovery.
Some experts pointed out that even if the demand of developed economies returns to normal level, the conditions for further expanding demand in the future are not sufficient. After the crisis, the overdraft consumption pattern of developed economies such as the United States has changed. It is not easy for developed economies to reproduce their economic prosperity in the absence of weak population growth, no sudden changes in capital and technological factors, financial constraints and new consumption incentives.