Nowadays, the global financial tsunami has never happened in a century, and it is predicted that the world economy will face great risks of long-term recession and depression. In such a bad economic situation, China and Shanghai will hold an unprecedented world economic "Olympic" event-World Expo in the near future. Can the Expo economy sweep away the gloom and remain glamorous, bringing staged accelerated development to the host city and national economy? Or stop the whole world economic recession?
With a scientific attitude and full of expectations, I expect that there will always be vitality in the crisis in this stormy and turbulent economic era.
New opportunities to get out of recession
Since September this year, a once-in-a-century "financial tsunami" that began on Wall Street in the United States has swept the world instantly, from the westernmost United States to the easternmost Japan, from the southernmost New Zealand to the northernmost Iceland, and from the richest industrial countries to the poorest developing countries. The financial systems and capital markets of all countries are facing great threats, and even many countries in Eastern Europe and South America are on the verge of bankruptcy. Once the financial giants with deep pockets collapsed instantly; Hundreds of trillions of dollars of wealth vanished in an instant; Millions of people face the tragic situation of unemployment and homelessness; From the finance minister, the governor of the central bank to the management of the company, they all panicked; The world economy faces great risks of long-term recession and depression. At this moment, people have some expectations and a common question: when will the world economy get out of recession?
The global financial crisis affects China's economy through three transmission channels.
Tracing back to the source, as the fuse of the global financial crisis, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has expanded from specific financial products to financial institutions, and then to the global financial market, and is currently in the transmission stage from the financial system to the real economy.
As for the impact of the global financial crisis on China's economy, it mainly affects China's economy through three transmission channels: subprime securities investment, trade and capital flow. Compared with 1997 Asian financial crisis, China's real estate market is still in its infancy, but at present, the real estate market has formed a very strong atmosphere of wait-and-see and adjustment; From 65438 to 0998, the export dependence of China's economy was only 18%, and it rose to about 38% in 2007. After the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States, the "hot money" flowing into emerging markets such as China in the early stage will flow back to the United States to "put out the fire", thus greatly reducing the interest in investing in developing countries. Therefore, compared with the financial crisis of 1997, China's economy has been more impacted by the international environment.
The summary of the main economic indicators of the cities in the Yangtze River Delta from June to September, 2008 recently released by the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics shows that the year-on-year growth rates of "total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size" in Ningbo, Nanjing and Shanghai from June to September were -3 1%, -44% and -7.8%, respectively, all of which showed a sharp decline or a significant slowdown. The reason is that, on the one hand, the demand for China's exports in Europe and America will continue to decrease. Although there were many orders in the past, the number of new orders has dropped significantly. On the other hand, the investment scale of European and American enterprises in China is further decreasing, which will lead to a sharp decline in the actual amount of foreign investment contracts in the next few years, thus affecting the growth of regional economy in trade and investment.
The Shanghai World Expo provides a great opportunity for China to transform its economic growth mode.
However, judging from the experience of various external shocks in China since the reform and opening up, each time has become a great opportunity for China's economy to fully mobilize various resources, promote economic system reform and cultivate new economic growth points, thus pushing China's economy to a new level. The global financial crisis warns us that we must change extensive economic's development mode that relied too much on export demand and resource input. The short-term countermeasures can be to stimulate domestic demand and loose fiscal and monetary policies, and the long-term countermeasures are to change the mode of economic development. The upcoming Shanghai World Expo will provide a great opportunity for China to transform its economic growth mode.
From the perspective of the Yangtze River Delta, the Shanghai World Expo is an opportunity for the development of Shanghai and even the whole Yangtze River Delta. The upcoming 20 10 Shanghai World Expo is a platform for exhibition and communication. Up to now, 180 countries and 44 international organizations have confirmed their participation in the 20 10 Shanghai World Expo, which shows that the Shanghai World Expo is the largest ever. The Shanghai World Expo will achieve three major goals: First, the world will interpret the Shanghai World Expo "Better City, Better Life" in different ways under the same theme; The second is to show exhibitions, forums and activities to the world; The third is to launch online exhibition. Online exhibition will allow more visitors to participate in the Shanghai World Expo from different angles through the organic combination of Internet, virtual reality and other advanced technologies. During the Shanghai World Expo, many Expo activities will be held in cities in the Yangtze River Delta. Tourism integration in the Yangtze River Delta will promote the development of many industries, and the exhibition industry, urban tourism and intercity transportation industry will show prosperity. It is predicted that during the World Expo, 70 million domestic and foreign merchants and tourists will come to Shanghai, and the maximum daily reception volume will reach 800,000. Among them, 95% tourists from other provinces and cities have accommodation needs, 38% tourists will stay in the Yangtze River Delta region, and nearly 90% tourists will choose Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions. The huge passenger flow lasting for half a year will bring direct economic stimulus to scenic spots, hotels, restaurants, transportation and even leisure places around the Yangtze River Delta. In September 2008, the State Council's "Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting Reform, Opening-up and Economic and Social Development in the Yangtze River Delta Region" proposed that by 2020, the Yangtze River Delta will form an industrial structure with service industry as the mainstay and coordinated development of three industries; The development in the region is more coordinated, forming a reasonable division of labor and a unique spatial pattern. The Yangtze River Delta is the region with the strongest comprehensive economic strength in China, and the sound and rapid development of the Yangtze River Delta is related to the overall situation of China's reform, opening up and modernization.
From a national perspective, the Shanghai World Expo is a great opportunity for China to transform its economic development mode and adjust its industrial structure.
Many "highlights" of previous World Expos have become the focus of promoting human development. The telephone invented by Bell was displayed at the World Expo, which actually changed the way of human communication. The plane invented by the Wright brothers was unveiled at the World Expo, which actually laid the foundation for human flying dreams. With the theme of "new take-off mode", the Daejeon World Expo in South Korea focuses on the new generation of technologies such as transportation, aerospace, electronics, communication, environmental protection, new materials and new energy. After the Daejeon World Expo, a large number of Korean scientific research institutions quickly gathered in the original exhibition park, forming the "Dade Science Park". Similarly, with the Osaka World Expo of 1970, the industries in Kansai region have undergone substantial structural adjustment, forming an Osaka city circle with Osaka as the center and a radius of about 50 kilometers, becoming the center of Japanese business transactions, finance and information exchange, and making contributions to today's world-famous "Kansai Economic Belt".
According to the Science and Technology Action Plan of the Shanghai World Expo, participating countries will display the latest achievements in the field of science and technology around the theme of the Expo. Through major international exhibitions, China will explore the integration of engineering science and technology research and management resources, overcome a number of scientific and technological problems, form a number of original and integrated scientific and technological achievements, and give birth to a new growth point of "Expo economy". During and after the World Expo, many "bright spots" will accelerate the industrialization of achievements, make innovative achievements widely spread and applied, and make the "bright spots" of the Science and Technology Expo finally provide new growth points for the economic and social development of cities and even countries.
Globally, the Shanghai World Expo will become a new starting point and opportunity for the world economy to prosper again. Since 185 1 held its first exhibition in London, the World Expo has developed rapidly and is known as the "Olympic Games in the fields of economy, science and technology and culture".
Throughout the previous World Expositions, there are three that are comparable in scale to the Shanghai World Expo, and the development of the host country has obviously benefited: 1970 Osaka World Expo has greatly promoted the adjustment of Japanese economic structure and the integration of Osaka economic circle; Seville Expo 1992 has made the relatively backward areas in southern Spain develop rapidly. The 2000 World Expo in Hanover, Germany, promoted the economic recovery of Lower Saxony. The Shanghai World Expo will promote the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta with Shanghai as the center, which is not only an opportunity for China to change its economic development mode and adjust its industrial structure, but also an opportunity for the world economy to get out of the current global financial crisis.
The Shanghai World Expo is conducive to enhancing global capital's confidence in China's economy.
The World Expo is a platform to promote national scientific and technological innovation and image, so countries with depressed economies should not miss this promotion opportunity. The World Expo is the intersection and collision of global culture, economy and technology, and more opportunities for the Expo are hidden behind the on-site exhibitions and huge crowds. Expo 20 10 will provide a large number of investment opportunities for global capital, enabling it to have extensive contacts and exchanges with China enterprises, which will help to enhance the confidence of global capital in China's economy.
Judging from the specific time when the Shanghai World Expo will be held in 20 10, the world economy may have walked out of the shadow of recession and ushered in recovery, and the Shanghai World Expo is expected to become a new starting point for the global economy to walk out of recession and usher in recovery. 1933 The Chicago World Expo was held after the Great Depression from 1929 to 1933, and became the starting point for the revitalization of the American economy and the world economy. Therefore, the Shanghai World Expo is an opportunity for developed countries to get rid of the crisis and find the direction of investment, and it also indirectly helps the American economy in the crisis. Therefore, hosting the Shanghai World Expo is essentially a win-win situation, and the Shanghai World Expo will become a new starting point and new opportunity for the world economy to prosper again.
Luo Cetus, Secretary General of the Bureau of International Expositions, believes that in the process of preparing and hosting the Shanghai World Expo, China will open a window for people, people and resources, and people and nature to live in harmony. Professor Joachim Trusch, President of Bremen International University, believes that the Shanghai World Expo can attract a record number of exhibitors, which reflects the high recognition and expectation of the international community for the theme of this World Expo, and also shows that the whole world is concerned about the development of China, the most populous country. Compared with the Olympic Games, I believe that the Shanghai World Expo, with the participation of the international community, will have a wider, more positive and lasting impact on China and the world. (Xiao Yanhua)
The World Expo has created an economic miracle for the host country.
The so-called "Expo economy" refers to a series of activities that the host city takes advantage of the business opportunities brought by the Expo to promote and develop the local economy and achieve sustained economic and cultural growth during the preparation and holding of the Expo. It is a special economic phenomenon that can bring staged accelerated development to the host city and the national economy.
The World Expo will bring three benefits. First of all, the value of urban resources will be enhanced. Second, in the development of the Expo, including its logo sales, commercial operation and sponsors, this is the most direct part of the Expo economy. Third, the Expo will bring a large number of tourists, and the increase in income brought by tourists' food, clothing, housing and transportation should be said to be a great potential increase.
This is the World Expo.
The World Expo is an international exposition with great influence and a long history organized by the host country government or entrusted by the government to relevant departments. It has a history of more than one hundred years. At first, it mainly displayed fine arts and traditional handicrafts. Later, it gradually became an exhibition of science and technology and industrial technology, and became a rare place to train industrial talents and enlighten ordinary citizens. The World Expo venues are not only displaying technologies and commodities, but also accompanied by colorful performances and charming and spectacular scenery. It is set as a space full of festive atmosphere that cannot be experienced in daily life, and becomes an ideal place for ordinary citizens to entertain and consume.
World Expo promotes economic take-off
Judging from the experience of hosting previous World Expos, the host city of the World Expo combines the preparation of the World Expo with the economic and social development of the city, taking the World Expo as an opportunity to bring new vitality to the development of the host city and country, mainly in the following two aspects:
First of all, the direct and indirect demand brought by the World Expo will usually promote the economic growth of the host city and country;
The second is to promote the development of related industries, especially high-tech industries and service industries, and at the same time promote the operation of a number of modern transportation and communication infrastructures with advanced technology and complete functions, so as to improve the operational efficiency of the city.
The World Expo 65438-0970 was held in Osaka, Japan, which brought lasting follow-up influence to Osaka's rise on the international industrial and commercial stage. Osaka World Expo and Tokyo Olympic Games, based in two major cities in Japan, are the catalysts for Japan's economic development after the war. These two large-scale activities have produced the Shinkansen that Japan is proud of in the world, and it is also an opportunity for the birth of high-speed transportation network. This World Expo has greatly promoted the construction of transportation, high-grade housing, commercial facilities, tourism and cultural exchange places in Osaka, and promoted the formation of Kansai urban agglomeration with Osaka as the center.
The Osaka World Expo has improved the city's international reputation, and the large-scale construction opportunities brought by the Expo have basically caught up with the level of Tokyo, which has provided a solid foundation for the long-term development of the city and is of great significance to Japan's economic development and layout. During the Osaka World Expo 1970 alone, Japan signed an export contract of about $2 billion.
1985 The direct related expenditure of Expo Tsukuba is about1157.9 billion yen, and the derived production income reaches 23 163 billion yen, which is 9 times of the direct expenditure of Expo Tsukuba, and the contribution of these to Japan's 1985 GDP is about 0.
1986 Canada's direct expenditure on hosting the Vancouver World Expo was110.2 billion Canadian dollars (US$ 800 million), an increase of 2.8 billion Canadian dollars in output value. The fiscal revenue of the federal government and the province (Colombia) increased by 570 million Canadian dollars and10.70 billion Canadian dollars respectively. At the same time, the World Expo provided 63,000 jobs for Canada, with a total salary of 65.438+340 million Canadian dollars.
South Korea's direct expenditure on hosting the Daejeon World Expo in 1993 was 200 billion won, while the GDP income brought by Daejeon World Expo was 3 trillion won, and South Korea's GDP in that year was 27.8 trillion won. The GDP effect of the World Expo is about 0.72%. The Daejeon World Expo has also created more than 200,000 jobs for South Korea.
The direct expenditure for hosting the World Expo 2000 in Hanover, Germany is 654.38+002 billion Deutsche Mark. Its impact on Germany's GDP in that year was 654.38+0.7 billion marks, while in 2000, Germany's GDP was about 3,969.98 billion marks. Therefore, the impact of the Hanover World Expo on Germany's national GDP is close to 0.26%. The Hanover World Expo also brought 2 billion marks of financial revenue to the local government. In the preparation and implementation stage of Hanover World Expo, the remarkable effect brought by huge expenditure comes from the investment in infrastructure inside and outside the fence.
The Impact of Shanghai World Expo on China's Economy
The impact of Expo 20 10 on China's economy is mainly manifested in tangible and intangible aspects.
The tangible impact refers to the role of the World Expo in stimulating the consumption demand, investment demand, export demand and expanding employment in the host country, which is mainly reflected in the economic aggregate and structural changes in the host region.
Intangible impact refers to the impact of the World Expo on the host country's economic development environment, openness, national reputation, image and credibility.
From the long-term development of the host country's economy, intangible influence is often more important and valuable than tangible influence.
1. Enhance cohesion and provide a stable social environment for economic development.
From the beginning of the bid to the end of the activity, a country can attract the attention of the whole people at least within 10 years. It is a peaceful situation from Shanghai's bid to the end of Expo 20 10, from "everyone looks forward to the Expo" in the early stage to "everyone is the master and the whole people hold the Expo" in the later stage. This 10 year is an important period for the strategic adjustment of China's economic structure. Holding the World Expo during this period will undoubtedly provide a good social environment for structural adjustment and economic development.
Second, it is conducive to further opening to the outside world, so that China's economy can better adapt to the process of economic globalization.
Hosting the World Expo is an important medium for a country to expand its market opening and accelerate its integration into the process of economic globalization. The World Expo is the most international event in the world today. The government, organizations and enterprises in this country are required to adjust their management and operation methods that are incompatible with the market economy, and this adjustment process is undoubtedly the process of expanding opening up and integrating into the process of economic globalization. Only by opening up the market and operating in accordance with international practices can we attract foreign investment to the maximum extent and ensure the project quality and investment benefit; Finally, hosting the World Expo will give the host country an open, democratic, enthusiastic and energetic image as a whole, which is of practical significance for attracting foreign investment and domestic enterprises to expand overseas markets. Therefore, the Shanghai World Expo is conducive to further opening up.
Third, it is conducive to building a "China brand" internationally, and can better promote the transformation of domestic enterprises from product management to brand management.
In order to compete in the international market, modern enterprises should not only have strong strength and first-class products, but also need the international reputation and influence of their countries. In other words, the brand competition of enterprises in the international market actually needs the support of the big brand of the country. Hosting the World Expo is an important means for a country to build a "national brand" and enhance its international influence.
Thanks to the World Expo, Shanghai will not only solve tens of thousands of employment opportunities, but also produce some new industries. More importantly, the World Expo has created conditions for China to accelerate its integration with the world after its accession to the WTO. Both the Olympic Games and the World Expo are world-class exhibitions that attract worldwide attention, and can strongly attract people, logistics, capital and information flows from all over the world, creating unlimited business opportunities and wealth. Charming mega-city events can be a powerful engine to drive China's reform, opening up and economic development in the early 20th century. (Joe)
The upgrading of industrial structure is imminent.
At present, the upgrading of Shanghai's industrial structure has entered a critical stage. The proportion of added value of Shanghai's service industry has been swinging around 50% for ten years. This situation shows that Shanghai's industrial structure is gestating and brewing, waiting for a suitable opportunity and way to achieve a breakthrough upgrade and take a new step. The employment rate of service industry in London reached 88%, while that in new york exceeded 90%, while that in Shanghai was only 56.3% in 2007.
Shanghai's industrial structure has been upgraded to an important juncture.
At present, the difficulties faced by Shanghai's industrial development are: on the one hand, it is necessary to continue to maintain the development of manufacturing industry, which is the pillar industry of cities in developing countries, providing the necessary material foundation for urban development, and is also an important source of tax revenue and employment channels, which cannot be greatly reduced in the short term; On the other hand, it is necessary to develop the service industry, upgrade the urban energy level, develop into an international metropolis, and realize the sustainable development of urban economy and society.
In fact, since Pudong's development and opening up, the linear trend of the contribution rate of Shanghai's manufacturing industry and service industry to economic growth has been in a parallel state, and there has been no obvious decline in manufacturing industry and an obvious increase in service industry. Shanghai's industrial development has been swinging between service industry and manufacturing industry.
At present, there are four main problems to be solved urgently in upgrading Shanghai's industrial structure: improving the ability of independent innovation and upgrading from low-end manufacturing to high-end manufacturing; Reduce dependence on foreign trade and transfer the main product market from abroad to China; Reduce the degree of industrial isomorphism, form a division of labor and cooperation relationship with the Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone, and form a global urban area; Greatly increase the employment proportion and added value of the service industry and build a light and low-carbon economy.
However, in the absence of substantial external shocks, Shanghai's economy will inevitably continue to develop along the existing track, and the low-end manufacturing, investment and export-oriented economic growth model will inevitably continue. This economic growth model has been proved to be unsustainable under the condition of resource shortage in China. In the context of the global financial crisis, upgrading the industrial structure in Shanghai has become more urgent.
In the past 30 years, the global economy has greatly improved the market level, and laissez-faire has extended to every corner of the world. However, in the absence of a corresponding global governance mechanism, it has now proved to be extremely dangerous.
With the deepening of the financial crisis, the American market will further shrink. The low savings rate and high consumption rate in the United States have finally proved to be an unsustainable economic growth model. For a long time, the consumption of residents in western economies dominated by the United States will be suppressed to some extent. While attacking the global export-oriented economy, it has also promoted the resurgence of global trade protectionism. Although the global financial crisis has limited impact on China's economy under China's capital control, the total import and export volume will inevitably decrease, and investment confidence will inevitably be hit, which will inevitably have a considerable negative impact on Shanghai's low-end manufacturing industry and export-oriented economy. Shanghai will gradually feel the side effects of this crisis.
In fact, even without the global financial crisis and high dependence on high carbon, low-end manufacturing and foreign trade, Shanghai's economy will inevitably find new economic growth points, change its growth trajectory, promote the upgrading of industrial structure and achieve sustainable economic development.
Expo economy and rationalization of Shanghai's industrial structure
20 10 Shanghai World Expo will be an important driving force for upgrading Shanghai's industrial structure and an important economic growth point for Shanghai in the next three years. From a certain point of view, the World Expo is an important opportunity to rationalize Shanghai's industrial structure and an important support for Shanghai to resist the global financial crisis and maintain sustained economic growth in the near future.
Judging from the history of hosting the World Expo, the contribution rate of the Expo economy to the economic growth of the host city can reach more than 2%.
First of all, the Expo economy has promoted the upgrading of the industrial structure of the host city. 1992 Seville Expo has greatly changed the industrial structure of Spain. The proportion of service industry output value increased from 57% in 1990 to 63% in 1993, with an average annual growth of 10. 1%. Seville has also become a tourist destination in Europe.
Secondly, the Expo economy has promoted the formation of industrial division and cooperation between the host city and surrounding cities. Take 1970 World Expo in Osaka, Japan as an example, the World Expo promoted the formation and rise of the city circle centered on Osaka, and the Kansai Economic Belt in Japan maintained the economic growth of 10. Japan vigorously promoted the transformation of Osaka's industrial structure before and after the World Expo, and promoted the shift of Osaka's industrial focus from heavy industry to high-tech industry, financial industry and information industry. Japan regards Osaka as the central city of Kansai region, which promotes the formation and development of Osaka metropolitan area through rail transit and convenient transportation facilities.
Although every World Expo has its profits and losses, the service industry benefits from it without exception. During the 65,438+083 days of the 2065,438+00 Shanghai World Expo, it is estimated that there will be an average of 400,000 person-times every day, which is equivalent to the whole population of a Jing 'an District rushing out. The logistics, capital flow and information flow driven by so many people will greatly enhance employment and increase the proportion of Shanghai's service industry. By 20 10, the proportion of service industry employment in Shanghai is expected to exceed 60%, which will change the long-standing high-industrial structure of manufacturing industry and accelerate the rationalization of industrial employment structure and added value structure in Shanghai.
At the same time, the arrival of so many Expo visitors in Shanghai depends on the effective connection of transportation infrastructure and the full development of various modes of transportation in the Yangtze River Delta. In addition, so many tourists need to be arranged to visit the Shanghai World Expo in an orderly manner, and some tourists may need to visit other tourist attractions in the Yangtze River Delta before entering the Expo venues. At present, cities in the Yangtze River Delta are focusing on tourism, trying to divert tourists from the Shanghai World Expo and share part of the tourism revenue. In this way, with the integration of transportation infrastructure and tourism as a breakthrough, the degree of industrial isomorphism between Shanghai and other cities in the Yangtze River Delta for many years is expected to be alleviated, and the division of labor and cooperation between industries will be further strengthened. Shanghai's long-term high contribution rate of exports to economic growth is expected to change.
Expo economy and the upgrading of Shanghai's industrial structure
Thanks to the massive infrastructure investment during the World Expo, Shanghai's economy will still maintain rapid growth. Because some industries are directly related to the World Expo, they will show a strong growth trend, become the leading industries to promote the upgrading of Shanghai's industrial structure, and realize the industrial structure based on service industry.
Shanghai's tourism and convention and exhibition industry will directly benefit from the World Expo and grow strongly. The postponement of Expo 183 days can directly bring about the rapid growth of tourism and convention and exhibition industry. It is estimated that by 20 10, Shanghai's foreign exchange income will reach 4.6 billion US dollars, and Shanghai's tourism industry will receive more than 5 million inbound tourists throughout the year, with a total tourism income of about 200 billion yuan. The added value of tourism increased more than the average growth rate of the whole city, achieving sustained and rapid growth. Shanghai World Expo will promote the combination of tourism and convention and exhibition industry, form modern city convention and exhibition tourism, and promote the income expansion along the tourism value chain. Since the industry-driven ratio of convention and exhibition industry is about 1:9, the role of World Expo in driving and promoting other industries is obvious.
Shanghai's high-tech industries will also benefit from the World Expo, with a rapid growth momentum. The World Expo is not only a grand event to show the most advanced scientific and technological achievements of all countries in the world, but also a stage for industrial and technological development of all countries. At the same time, the venue construction, communication, urban traffic and environmental protection of the World Expo are inseparable from the support of high technology. The Shanghai World Expo will display the latest science and technology, which will bring opportunities for the development of high-tech industries, and will certainly promote the introduction and cooperation of high-tech industries, the gathering and use of talents, the transformation and innovation of high-tech achievements, and the reorganization and merger of high-tech industries. This will help Shanghai gradually become a high-tech core city.
Shanghai's creative industries will also benefit from the Expo. The handicrafts, movies, broadcasting and venue logo design of the World Expo all contain high creativity to attract tourists' attention. The venue design, music creation and performance of the World Expo will greatly promote the development of creative industries. The design of World Expo theme pavilions and national pavilions will greatly promote the development of creative industries in Shanghai. In the design and construction of stadiums in various countries, it is inevitable to use local materials, save costs and hire talents from Shanghai or China, which is conducive to the development of creative industries in Shanghai. (Chen Jianhua)
On the Economic Radiation of "Metropolitan Area" from the World Expo
After World War II, the biggest innovation in the development of world cities is the formation and development of metropolitan area, which has increasingly become the locomotive of sustained prosperity and development of countries and regions, and the core cities of metropolitan area have increasingly become the hub and network node of global resource allocation and economic organization.
It is common sense that the World Expo has always been an important boost to the economic and social development of the host country, and it can even bring about the rapid development of the regional economy.
The special mission entrusted to Shanghai by the World Expo will strengthen its leading position in the game, competition and cooperation in the Yangtze River Delta economic circle. By building a platform for exchanges and cooperation in industry, transportation, science and technology, tourism and other levels, the World Expo will become the best opportunity to accelerate the integration of the Yangtze River Delta economic circle.
From the perspective of the three stages of Expo effect, namely, preparation effect (investment-driven), holding effect (demand-driven) and follow-up effect (brand and new technology-driven), the effects of Expo on regional economic integration can also be expressed in short-term, medium-term and long-term stages.
In the short and medium term, the hosting of the 20 10 Shanghai World Expo will have a significant linkage effect through regional economic activities such as infrastructure, sightseeing, urban development and industrial investment, and promote regional cooperation and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area. 20 10 There will be 200 international organizations, countries and enterprises participating in the Shanghai World Expo. During this period, Shanghai will welcome 5.5 million foreign tourists, and a large part of them will be diverted to the whole Yangtze River Delta.
The radiation range of Expo's "magnetic attraction effect" covers Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area and Hangjiahu area, and the peripheral radiation belt can extend to the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River along the golden waterway.
In addition, hosting the World Expo needs to vigorously develop advanced manufacturing and advanced service industries. Shanghai can take advantage of the east wind of the World Expo to build "four centers" and accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure. Cities in the Yangtze River Delta can seize this opportunity to connect with the transfer of some industries in Shanghai, further enlarge the scale of local related industries, form some industrial advantages, and realize the prosperity of regional economy.
Guotai Junan's research report pointed out that the Shanghai World Expo will drive related industries to invest 270 billion yuan, making it the largest World Expo in history.
Another calculation shows that during the preparation for the World Expo, Shanghai's annual GDP increased by about 2%, and investment in the Yangtze River Delta region was about 30%. In the year of hosting, Shanghai's GDP increased by about 5%, and the Yangtze River Delta invested more than 50%. During the preparation and holding period, it will stimulate the national economy to grow by about 0.2%.
In the long run, the World Expo will promote the regional economic development in the Yangtze River Delta, which is mainly due to the improvement of regional trade and investment environment after the meeting, the acceleration of industrial structure upgrading after the exhibition and exchange of new technologies and materials, and the formation of important regional economic circles. It is expected to maintain 0. 1% in ten years. The holding of the World Expo and its comprehensive utilization in the following decades will certainly bring about significant peripheral linkage effect, radiate the Yangtze River Delta region, drive the economic development of the whole East China region and even the whole country, and generate inestimable value.
It is common sense that the World Expo has always been an important boost to the economic and social development of the host country, and it can even bring about the rapid development of the regional economy. Shanghai has unique location conditions and development advantages in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, which can help it rise to become the largest international economic center in China and developing countries. International experience shows that the GDP of international economic center cities often accounts for more than 10% of a country. Therefore, the formation of metropolitan economy will greatly expand the development space of Shanghai's city and economy. Making full use of the opportunity of the World Expo to serve the national strategy of integrating the Yangtze River Delta is not only the need to improve the national comprehensive competitiveness and realize the national strategic goal, but also the only way for Shanghai to realize the overall innovation of the city and build the "four centers" goal.