1. From the trade point of view, it will promote China to expand its export scale, enhance its export competitiveness, optimize its export commodity structure and realize its export market diversification strategy.
At present, the trade between China and ASEAN is developing rapidly. According to the statistics of China Customs, ASEAN has been China's fifth largest trading partner for 1 1 year since1year, and the trade volume in the Middle East has increased from 1990 to $669 1 billion in 2003, with an average annual growth of $78.252 billion. After the launch of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, it will further promote China to expand its export scale, improve its export competitiveness, optimize its export commodity structure and realize the effect of its export market diversification strategy.
(1) Expand export scale by lowering tariff and non-tariff barriers.
First of all, the trade creation effect brought by tariff reduction will be greater than the trade diversion effect, and ASEAN will switch from importing from other countries to importing from China, thus expanding the export scale of China. China? According to the static model analysis of the ASEAN Economic Cooperation Expert Group, China's exports to ASEAN will increase by 654.38+006 billion US dollars, with a growth rate of 556.5438+0%. If other dynamic factors are considered, it may be more than that.
Secondly, the reduction of non-tariff barriers will also lead to the expansion of China's exports. According to the research report of UNCTAD (1994), all kinds of formalities related to customs clearance alone are equivalent to 7% of the total trade volume? 10%, if these areas are coordinated, these costs will be reduced by 25%, and soon the income equivalent to 1.75%-2.50% of the total trade value will be increased. Based on the data of 2003, the harmonization and simplification of customs clearance procedures after the establishment of the Middle East Free Trade Area will increase China's economic income by at least $65,438,037 million. Differences in standards and certification also hinder trade between China and ASEAN. According to the research of the US Department of Commerce and the European Commission 1998, the export losses caused by technical regulations related to standards and certification account for 3.75% of the total export value? 6.25%。 Therefore, if the establishment of the Middle East Free Trade Area can be standardized and certified, China's exports to ASEAN will increase by165438+60 million USD on the basis of the data in 2003. Therefore, lowering non-tariff barriers will also expand China's exports to ASEAN.
(2) Improve export competitiveness through scale effect
According to relevant data, by 20 10, the GDP of the Middle East Free Trade Area will reach about 3 trillion US dollars, and the population in the area will be about 2 billion, which will provide China with a broader market space. Therefore, through the scale effect brought by market expansion, China's export enterprises can be prompted to reduce costs, thus improving their export competitiveness.
(3) Optimize the trade structure through complementary trade
We will further optimize the trade structure by developing complementary commodity trade with ASEAN. China and ASEAN have their own characteristics in terms of resource composition, industrial structure and industrial and agricultural products, which are highly complementary. The concrete analysis shows that China's textiles, clothing, shoes, food, grain, building materials and other products have obvious comparative advantages, while mechanical and electronic equipment, precision instruments, watches, vehicles, metal products and chemical products have potential advantages. Therefore, with the growth of bilateral trade, the export of products with comparative advantages in China will increase, the proportion of mechanical and electrical products, especially high-tech products, will increase significantly, and the trade structure will be further optimized.
(4) Reduce the fluctuation of export market and realize diversification strategy.
ASEAN 1 1 has been the fifth largest trading partner of China and the largest trading partner of China among developing China countries for years, and the growth rate of bilateral trade is much higher than that of other major trading partners. The launch of FTZ will further strengthen the trade ties between China and ASEAN countries, thus reducing China's dependence on European and American markets, reducing the export risks brought by its market fluctuation and trade protectionism, and promoting the realization of the diversification strategy of export markets. (To be continued)
2. China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will promote the increase of attracting foreign investment in China and the implementation of the "going out" strategy.
In recent years, China and ASEAN have actively carried out economic cooperation, and bilateral investment has maintained a good momentum of development. By the end of June this year, the actual investment of ASEAN countries in China totaled 34 billion US dollars; According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of June this year, excluding Hongkong and Macau, the agreed investment of China enterprises in 10 ASEAN countries was nearly 10 billion US dollars.
(1) Promote the increase of foreign investment in China.
At present, China attracts the most foreign direct investment in the world, but the investment stimulus effect brought by China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will further promote China to attract more foreign investment. After the free trade zone is completed, it will form a unified big market, and it will be convenient to invest in China and enter the ASEAN market. Moreover, the soft and hard environment for China's investment is better than that of most ASEAN countries, and investment in China is easier to achieve results than ASEAN. Therefore, China is in a better position to attract foreign investment.
(2) Promote China enterprises to "go global" to invest in ASEAN and avoid trade barriers.
In recent years, although China's investment in ASEAN has increased by more than 60% annually, it still lags behind ASEAN's investment in China, which has great development potential. The launch of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will bring more convenience and a broader regional market to China enterprises. China enterprises can enjoy preferential tariff policies in the region to a certain extent when investing in ASEAN, avoiding the export risks caused by some trade barriers set by developed countries specifically for China, such as "non-market economy status", which will promote China's investment in ASEAN.
3. China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will promote the adjustment of regional economic structure in China.
China's southwest provinces are geographically adjacent to ASEAN countries, and are the main export markets of these provinces, and their trade with ASEAN countries is highly complementary. Strengthening economic cooperation with ASEAN under the framework of free trade zone will greatly promote the export of these provinces and regions, create conditions for them to participate in the international division of labor and share the benefits of division of labor in a wider scope, thus effectively cooperating with the implementation of China's western development strategy and promoting the adjustment and optimization of China's regional economic structure and the coordinated development of regional economy. In particular, Guangxi and Yunnan are adjacent to ASEAN countries and have close economic and cultural exchanges with ASEAN countries in history. The ASEAN Free Trade Area has obvious geographical advantages. In the future, it will become the logistics, business and investment center of the free trade zone from the geographical edge of China, thus playing a unique role and driving economic development.
4. China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will enhance the overall economic strength of China.
China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will enhance China's overall economic strength in the following aspects.
First of all, after the launch of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, it will boost China's economic growth through the multiplier effect brought by the growth of foreign trade and investment and the expansion of domestic demand. According to the "Global Trade Analysis Project" model of ASEAN experts, after the completion of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, China's GDP will increase by 0.3%, reaching $3.5 billion.
Secondly, after the launch of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, the reduction of tariffs can enhance domestic competition, promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure, and accelerate the marketization process of China through the demonstration effect of ASEAN's marketization.
Finally, by starting the China-East Asia Free Trade Area, we can establish a new international division of labor in East Asia, thus forming and strengthening the interactive economic growth relationship between China and East Asia. Accelerate the pace of China's economic opening and development.
5. China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will expand China's political influence.
China and ASEAN have made political security an important part of the FTA. By initiating FTA and establishing strategic partnership with ASEAN countries, we can create a good regional political environment for China, improve China's international political status, give China a greater voice in world economic, trade, political and security affairs, and then expand China's political influence.
(B) the negative impact of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on China
1, tariff reduction impacts domestic industries and widens the trade deficit in the Middle East.
First of all, China and most ASEAN countries are developing countries, and labor-intensive industries account for a considerable proportion in the economic structure, with a high degree of overlap in export commodities. Therefore, the tariff reduction after FTZ is started will not only intensify the competition between China and ASEAN in similar industries and commodities, but also lead to a large number of products with ASEAN advantages entering the China market, thus impacting China's uncompetitive industries. For example, in the "early harvest" arrangement, some are bilateral mutual tariff exemption, but more are unilateral tariff preferences, which have had an impact on agricultural products in China, especially fruits and vegetables in the south. For example, the zero-tariff trade between China and Thailand on tropical fruits such as litchi, longan and mango has caused great pressure on fruit farmers in southern China.
Secondly, according to the statistics of China Customs, China has maintained a trade deficit with ASEAN for 1 1 year since 1993. If this situation persists for a long time, it will have a negative impact on the bilateral trade balance and China's economy. The reduction of tariff and non-tariff protection measures after the start of FTA will lead to the increase of China's imports from ASEAN, which will further widen the deficit and bring greater pressure to China.
2. The service industry has been greatly impacted.
China does not have comparative advantages in finance, communication and professional services, while some ASEAN countries such as Singapore have relatively strong comparative advantages in these fields. Therefore, after China and ASEAN start the free trade zone, these industries will be liberalized, and ASEAN will enter China to compete with domestic related industries, which will have a greater impact on the domestic service industry.
3. Investment substitution may lead to the decrease of ASEAN's investment in China, and intensified competition may lead to the difficulty for China enterprises to invest in ASEAN.
The trade creation effect of free trade zone will produce the substitution effect of trade on investment. For example, due to the existence of tariff and non-tariff barriers, some ASEAN enterprises used to invest in China. Now, with the establishment of the free trade zone, tariff and non-tariff barriers have been lowered, so there is no need to move their factories to China, only to increase their exports to China. Therefore, from this perspective, China-ASEAN Free Trade Area may lead to the reduction of ASEAN investment in China.
At the same time, Europe, America, Japan and other countries have always been the main exporters and investors of ASEAN, and their multinational companies have basically monopolized the economy of Southeast Asia. For example, oil and gas development and processing in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and other countries are basically monopolized by British, Dutch and American oil companies, while Japanese companies basically control the production and sales of household electronic and electrical products in ASEAN countries. At present, under the pressure of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, multinational companies in Europe, America and Japan are further stepping up the adjustment of production layout to enjoy the reciprocity of the free trade area. Faced with many powerful competitors outside the region, the competitiveness of China enterprises is weak. Therefore, the intensification of competition may increase the difficulty for China enterprises to enter the ASEAN market.
4. The economic fluctuation of ASEAN may have a negative impact on China's economy.
After the launch of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, the economic relationship between China and ASEAN will be closer and their interdependence will be further deepened. At present, although the economic situation in ASEAN has improved, there are still many variables. Therefore, once the ASEAN economy fluctuates, it will also have an impact on China's relevant departments and have a greater adverse impact on China's economy.