The warning of American subprime mortgage crisis to China real estate market On August 10, 2007, with the American stock market falling again, the American subprime mortgage problem exposed at the beginning of the year further deteriorated sharply. As the US real estate market price continues to fall, the subprime mortgage market shows signs of panic and even crisis, and the financial market price also shows a comprehensive adjustment trend. The U.S. stock market led the decline in global stock markets, with the prices of oil and gold falling slightly, and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar rising steadily. Complex price changes have led to the expansion of the subprime mortgage panic in the United States, and the global economy and finance are facing adjustment. The problem of American real estate subprime mortgage has been exaggerated, and its actual impact is lower than the crisis that the Internet bubble hit American subprime mortgage and caused the global stock market value to evaporate, but the crisis caused by American subprime mortgage may be far more than that. Rogers, an international investment guru, pointed out that even if the global stock market rebounds recently, there will be more declines ahead waiting for the market. Rogers said that he will always and still short American investment banks and construction stocks. Maurines Rowe, chief financial officer of Bear Stearns, a maverick Wall Street investment bank, also believes that the current turmoil in the US loan market is the worst in his 22-year career. If the US stock market continues to fall, where will these funds flow? The answer is to flow to other areas that can bring more returns. In terms of investment categories, this place may be a commodity; Geographically, the first choice for this place is undoubtedly China. Therefore, it can be predicted that if the US stock market continues to fall, the pressure on China to control hot money will further increase and the asset bubble will further expand. But in fact, the American economy has not changed in essence, and it is less likely to change or decline. The worsening impact of the subprime mortgage problem caused by this real estate problem is far lower than that of the American Internet bubble in 2000. On the one hand, they are different in nature-the traditional economic industry and the new economic industry have completely different performances and influences on the bubble, and the destruction speed and intensity of the traditional economy are less than that of the new economy and high technology, while the current real estate risks are controllable and not hopeless; On the other hand, the performance levels of the two are different-the current real estate problem in the United States is a local factor, while the Internet bubble in the United States was a whole effect, and their influence or share dominance on the American stock market is obviously different. The role of single stock index (Nasdaq index) is essentially different from the participation of constituent stocks (real estate). Therefore, it can be said that the sensitivity of American economy lies in the "hype" of policy and the "induction" of policy demand adjustment. It takes time and conditions for the economic problems of such a large economy as the United States to worsen, rather than simply rhetoric. At present, these speculations do more good than harm to the American economy. At present, the financial market estimates that the losses caused by subprime mortgage in the United States may be as high as $300 billion to $600 billion, and the indirect impact may spread to the whole real estate industry, leading to the revaluation of American housing prices. For example, National Finance Corporation, the largest commercial mortgage institution in the United States, said that as of June 30 this year, its available sources of liquidity funds reached $654.38+086.5 billion, and the total amount of "highly reliable" short-term financing including commercial paper reached $46.2 billion. With the problems of American subprime mortgage market spreading to the whole mortgage market one after another, since the beginning of 2007, the share price of national financial companies has dropped by 37%, but the value of bank shares has still increased by 12.7%. Roach, chief economist of Morgan Stanley, pointed out that high-risk mortgage, like the Internet asset bubble of that year, is much bigger than that of that year and will be the needle to puncture the bubble. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke agrees with this view, if he doesn't like it. In mid-July, at the mid-year economic evaluation hearing held by the US Senate Banking Committee, Bernanke said that the losses caused by the subprime mortgage market were estimated to be between 50 billion and 654.38+00 billion US dollars. At present, the subprime mortgage problem in the United States is a local phenomenon. The unemployment rate in the United States is very low, below 5%, inflation remains at 2%, and many new jobs are created. As long as income does not decline, personal income will rise. The most direct result of global economic imbalance and financial crisscross is not to repeat the pattern of past financial crisis, that is, the system and mechanism formed by the rise and fall of currency and asset prices are out of control or ineffective. Under the mode of economic globalization and new economy, credit will get out of control, destroy market confidence and lead to a sharp drop in prices. For example, under the premise that the US economy remains unchanged and the profits of American companies remain unchanged, the US stock market has plummeted three times in a row. On the one hand, the cycle of plunge is more frequent; On the other hand, the cycle of the plunge is shortened. Although there is no substantial impact on the American economy, the confidence in the American economy is declining, that is, pessimism is dominant, which is caused by human factors of American government policies, while the essence is to form public opinion and guidance in confidence psychology and adjust economic problems and contradictions through the market. As a mature and dominant economic model in the United States, the result of this is that it benefits itself, but it interferes with or destroys other countries' grasp of policies and strategies, disrupts their thinking and judgment, and realizes the loss of control of credit reputation with psychological imbalance of confidence. Subprime debt contains the risk of a new financial crisis. The timing and intention of the outbreak of American subprime debt are the strategic planning and technical setting of the United States with the help of market regulation. The main purpose is to regulate the stock market and economy, and it takes outstanding will to solve its own problems. Therefore, the expansion of the global subprime mortgage crisis was unexpected by the original intention of the United States. However, market technology and price cycle factors make investment and speculation follow suit, conform to the needs of the United States, and increase their own technical corrections, including the expansion of comprehensive price adjustments in the stock market, foreign exchange market, gold market and oil. Therefore, the international financial market generally shows a downward trend except the exchange rate of the US dollar.