(China Petroleum Exploration and Development Research Institute, Beijing 100083)
With China's dependence on foreign oil hitting record highs, the demand for international oil cooperation is increasingly urgent, so it is of great significance to evaluate the potential of international oil cooperation. By constructing the evaluation index system of international oil cooperation potential from three aspects: resource base, investment environment and income potential, combining statistical probability method, expert consultation method and theoretical analysis method, the evaluation factors are designed and selected, and the international oil cooperation potential of 30 major oil resource countries is evaluated by factor analysis method. The results show that oil resource countries with relatively stable socio-economic development level and investment environment should receive more attention.
Keywords: index system for evaluating factors of petroleum cooperation potential
Potential evaluation of international petroleum cooperation;
Based on factor analysis
Sun Peng
(Sichuan Petroleum Exploration and Development Research Institute,
Beijing, China 100083)
With China's increasing dependence on overseas oil supply, the demand for international oil cooperation is more and more urgent, and it is of great significance to evaluate the potential of international oil cooperation. This paper designs an evaluation system of international petroleum cooperation potential from three aspects: resource base, investment environment and income potential, combining statistical probability, expert consultation and theoretical analysis, and selects evaluation indicators. Using factor analysis to calculate the index system. Then, 30 major petroleum resources are selected for empirical study, and the evaluation results are obtained.
Keywords petroleum cooperation; Potential assessment; Factor analysis; Index system
In today's international oil market, the relationship between importing countries and resource countries, between national oil companies and international oil companies, and between resource countries and international oil organizations is complicated. International petroleum cooperation, especially the cooperation of upstream exploration and development projects, has become an important business activity of oil companies. At the same time, China Petroleum Company shoulders the dual goals of ensuring national oil security and pursuing the optimization of enterprise economic benefits. In recent years, overseas business has developed rapidly, and international exploration and development cooperation projects have expanded to dozens of countries and regions around the world. After experiencing a rapid scale development stage, China petroleum enterprises will inevitably enter a refined and efficient development period. Facing many potential oil resources cooperation countries, how to continuously optimize the decision-making of cooperation zones under the guidance of dual objectives has become an important proposition in the internationalization development strategy of China Petroleum Company.
At present, the pattern of competition and cooperation between national oil companies (NOC) and international oil companies (IOC) in the 20th century is changing from capital and technology-oriented to resource-oriented. By virtue of their own resource advantages, major oil resource countries have comprehensively improved their development ability and right to speak in the international oil market. With the continuous progress of industrialization in China, the demand for oil and gas resources has increased rapidly, the dependence on foreign countries has reached record highs, and the cooperation with major oil resource countries has become closer. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to evaluate the potential of international oil cooperation, which is conducive to the decision-making of China Oil Company's overseas constituency and the security of national oil supply.
1 design of international petroleum cooperation potential evaluation system
The evaluation of cooperation potential includes two factors: the ability of both parties and the possibility of cooperation. Therefore, the evaluation of the potential of international oil cooperation is not simply equivalent to the evaluation of the investment environment of oil-resource countries: the latter is mainly an analysis of the basic capabilities of the cooperation target, including resource-based strength, economic and social status, legal and technological strength, natural and human environment and other factors. The evaluation of cooperation potential includes not only the analysis and evaluation of investment environment, but also the analysis and evaluation of cooperation possibility (that is, whether it meets the investment benefit requirements of the partners). Therefore, the scope of elements of international petroleum cooperation potential evaluation is wider than that of investment environment evaluation, and the evaluation effect is more scientific and effective.
In this study, an index system framework (Figure 1) for evaluating the potential of international oil cooperation is constructed from three aspects: resource base, investment environment and income potential, and the resource base of resource countries is evaluated from the aspects of oil and gas reserves, output and its changing trend. Evaluate the overall investment environment of resource countries from the aspects of economy, politics, law, foreign cooperation, nature, technology and transportation, which can be summarized into four aspects: resource openness, economic and trade strength, political and legal basis and technical facilities conditions; From the petroleum contract model, the key factors of interest influence are selected to analyze the income potential of resource countries.
Figure 1 Design framework of international petroleum cooperation potential evaluation index
In the process of selecting and designing evaluation factors and indicators, the principle of (1) representativeness should be followed, that is, the selected indicators have strong representativeness and can fully reflect the cooperation potential of various oil resource countries; (2) the principle of availability, that is, the selected indicators will fully consider the availability of data, make maximum use of authoritative statistical data and norms and standards, and improve the feasibility and authority of the indicator system; (3) Quantification principle, that is, the selected indicators are reliable and can be quantified directly or by experts' scoring [1].
By using statistical probability method, expert consultation method and theoretical analysis method, this paper searches the key indicators in CNKI database of China academic journal, analyzes the selection of evaluation indicators of Tong (2003), (2002) and Otto (1995), and determines the evaluation index system of international oil cooperation potential from three aspects: resource base, investment environment and income potential.
Table 1 Evaluation Index System of International Petroleum Cooperation Potential
2. Evaluation of cooperation potential of major oil resource countries
In the process of evaluating the potential of international oil cooperation, it is necessary to observe a large number of evaluation index variables of many resource countries, collect a large number of data and analyze them to find the law, so as to make a comprehensive evaluation. The commonly used comprehensive evaluation methods mainly include Delphi method, analytic hierarchy process, principal component analysis and factor analysis [2]. Among them, factor analysis is an objective and scientific method in multi-index comprehensive evaluation method, which is especially suitable for the evaluation index system designed in this paper with many elements.
Factor analysis mainly starts with analyzing the correlation of variables, and finds the basic structure of these data by studying the internal dependence among many variables. A few unobservable variables represent the data structure, which is called common factor. There is a strong correlation between the indexes in the evaluation index system of international oil cooperation potential designed in this paper. Factor analysis is used to integrate new common factors, systematically analyze and explain the evaluation system and evaluation results, and factor analysis is used to evaluate the index system.
In the process of selecting the research object of a specific resource country, the following principles are followed: (1) The proven reserves of this resource country are large, which is in the forefront of the world; (2) It has a certain scale of oil production, and at the same time, it has strong oil export capacity on the basis of meeting domestic resource demand; (3) resource countries are more open in the process of foreign oil cooperation, allowing foreign oil companies to enter and develop in a cooperative way; (4) Having a good oil cooperation or trade foundation with China, and having broad prospects for future cooperation; (5) the principle of diversification of oil import sources, taking into account the analysis and research objects of cooperative resource countries in various regions. Finally, 30 resource countries are selected as the evaluation objects of this study, and specific assignments are made (Table 2).
Table 2 Evaluation indicators of cooperation potential of major oil-producing countries in the world [3 ~ 10]
sequential
After assigning specific values to the indicators of 30 resource countries, using SPSS statistical analysis software for factor analysis and calculation, five common factors are extracted, including: (1) the common factor of social and economic adaptability of resource countries f1; (2) common factor F2 of resource base of resource countries; (3) The common factor F3 of bilateral relations between resource countries and China; (4) Public factors F4 of traffic environment in resource-based countries; (5) The common factor F5 of infrastructure level in resource countries.
According to the rotated factor load matrix, the factor analysis model of the cooperation potential index of resource countries can be written as:
Oil and gas accumulation theory and exploration and development technology (5)
After the factor load matrix is obtained, the factor score coefficient matrix is obtained by SPSS statistical software, and then the following factor score function is obtained:
Oil and gas accumulation theory and exploration and development technology (5)
According to this score function, the scores of five factors in 30 resource countries are calculated respectively, and then the weight of each common factor is calculated by using the initial eigenvalue. The score of each factor is multiplied by its weight, and finally the comprehensive score is calculated. The calculation formula of comprehensive score model F is as follows:
Oil and gas accumulation theory and exploration and development technology (5)
Where λ 1, λ2, λ3, λ4 and λ5 are the initial eigenvalues of the first, second, third, fourth and fifth common factors, respectively.
Using SPSS statistical analysis software, the comprehensive scores of 30 resource countries can be calculated according to the weights calculated by factor scores and eigenvalues of five common factors, and sorted from high to low, as shown in Table 3.
Judging from the comprehensive scores of major resource countries, the top three countries are all countries with relatively developed economic levels, among which Australia ranks first, which is extremely competitive in three aspects: economic and social adaptability, pipeline construction degree and transportation distance from China; Russia ranks behind, and its resource base and bilateral relations with China lead to great potential for cooperation; Brazil's cooperation promotion factors are similar to Australia's, but there is a certain gap in factor scores, ranking third.
Russia, the main oil resource country in Latin America, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Central Asia, ranks in the middle, while Brazil and Mexico in Latin America mainly score high in national socio-economic adaptability and national pipeline construction. Iran and the United Arab Emirates in the Middle East have the highest resource base among countries. Followed by Malaysia and Thailand in the Asia-Pacific region, good national socio-economic conditions and close transportation distance to China are the main promoting factors for the cooperation potential between the two sides; Kazakhstan in Central Asia benefits from its national resource base and its close traffic distance with China, ranking relatively high. Algeria ranks first among African countries, and there is great potential for cooperation mainly from the perspective of bilateral relations and the growth trend of crude oil exports to China.
Table 3 Common Factor Score and Comprehensive Score
3 Conclusions and suggestions
First of all, the potential evaluation of international oil cooperation is a comprehensive systematic project, which cannot be judged unilaterally from the political and economic environment of resource countries. Especially under the dual objectives of ensuring the national oil supply security and the enterprise's own operating efficiency, when evaluating the potential of international oil cooperation, it is necessary to comprehensively analyze and weigh the resource base, investment environment and income potential, so as to avoid the prominent indicators in one aspect and lead to subjective judgment errors.
Secondly, under the guidance of "going out" strategy, China Petroleum Company has basically established five strategic cooperation zones: Africa, Middle East, South America, Central Asia-Russia and Asia-Pacific. Judging from the current cooperation situation, traditional Africa and the Middle East occupy the main proportion of China's oil cooperation projects. Judging from the evaluation results, we can't ignore the oil and gas resource countries with stable political environment, good infrastructure conditions and certain strength in resource base. To enter developing countries and developed countries, we should adopt different business thinking and strategic decision-making principles, and also consider factors including decision-making thinking, corporate behavior, social responsibility and maximization of public interests.
Finally, the potential evaluation of international oil cooperation is a dynamic evaluation. The values of various indicators in resource countries may change at any time; The target range of the evaluated resource countries will also change with the rapid changes in the international oil market. In addition, from the analysis of the purpose of international oil cooperation of China Oil Company, the emphasis and angle of international oil cooperation potential evaluation are not invariable. These factors need to be updated and revised when establishing the index system and the target range of the resource countries to be evaluated, so as to ensure the scientific and effective evaluation results of the potential of international oil cooperation.
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