On March 13, 2007, New Century Financial Company, the second largest subprime mortgage institution in the United States, was suspended from trading in new york Stock Exchange because it was on the verge of bankruptcy. On September 5, 2008, Lehman, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States with a history of 158, declared bankruptcy. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States quickly evolved into a fierce financial storm. With this as a symbol, the worst global financial crisis and economic recession after World War II immediately kicked off. This international financial crisis is considered as the biggest crisis since the Great Depression 1930, and even surpassed the crisis in the 1930s to some extent. It has brought a series of influences to the economies of all countries in the world. This crisis has changed the role of the United States in the world economy. For decades, American consumers have been the main driving force of global growth, but the crisis has curbed the consumption of heavily indebted Americans, and the world has begun to look for alternatives. Since late September 2008, governments all over the world have been working together. Unprecedented measures were taken to actively and effectively intervene in the market. Governments of various countries have taken various measures to rescue the market, and these measures have also played a role in stabilizing and stimulating the economy to a certain extent. After the financial crisis, the global economic structure will change greatly, the proportion of the United States will remain basically unchanged, and the proportion of Europe and Japan will decline. The proportion of emerging market economies such as India will increase. Due to the expectation of most economists, the global economy began to show a fragile recovery, and people began to use "post-financial crisis period" to describe the current world economy. The economic crisis provides a historic opportunity to turn the bubble economy and excessive consumption into the road of sustainable development.
Analysis of the World Economic Situation in the Post-financial Crisis Period
This financial crisis has dealt a heavy blow to the global economy, brought some changes to the world economy and prompted major changes in the international economic situation. This financial crisis triggered the worst recession of the world economy since World War II, which profoundly ended the high-speed growth of the world economy since 1980s, triggered the deep adjustment of the global economy, and a new round of changes took place in its structural form and development direction.
The main feature of the global economy in the post-financial crisis era is that the global production and trade pattern has changed. The main manifestation is that the process of "de-industrialization" in developed countries is slowing down, especially in the United States and other important developed countries, which will further accelerate the process of "re-industrialization", which will cause major changes in the global production pattern, while the industrialization process in developing countries will be affected to some extent. Increasing the savings rate in developed countries and the consumption rate in developing countries has become a development trend, which will also profoundly change the economic structure and living habits of the two big countries. This has also led to an increasing proportion of "emerging markets" in the world, which has attracted the attention of developed and developing countries that have taken the lead in growth. Since the beginning of this century, a new round of globalization has become the main force to promote global economic growth. Mainly manifested in the integration of the global market and the expansion of economies of scale. Emerging market economies such as East Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe are integrated into the global economic system, and rely on the "Smith growth" promoted by the deepening of the global division of labor system to create huge "globalization dividends". This financial crisis marks the transition of globalization from a high tide to a low tide, which leads to a sustained and deep recession in developed countries. Economic growth in emerging markets and developing countries has also slowed down significantly. Although developed countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan and some emerging market countries have successively adopted large-scale financial rescue and economic stimulus policies, there is still great uncertainty in the recovery of the world economy. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, "this year, the world economy will experience the worst post-war recession, with an estimated decline of 1.4%. The world economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 20 10, in which the developed countries are expected to achieve a small growth of 0.6% and the emerging markets and developing countries will grow by 4.7%. According to the development trend of the world economy, the recovery of the world economy will be a tortuous process, and it will take several years for financial institutions to dispose of a large number of non-performing assets and balance their balance sheets. However, it is difficult for new economic growth points to become the main driving force for economic recovery in the short term. In the coming period, the world economy will resume growth in the process of adjustment, with an average annual growth rate of about 3%, which will be significantly lower than the growth rate of nearly 5% in the five years before the crisis. Countries will be more cautious in opening financial markets, and the process of economic globalization may slow down, but the financial crisis will not change the general trend of in-depth development of economic globalization. Promoting trade and investment liberalization, building a multilateral trading system and restructuring the global financial system will still be the inevitable choice for all countries in the world to achieve economic development and prosperity. The general trend of economic globalization is irreversible, but the development process will be more tortuous and complicated.
The global financial system has changed.
With the further decline of the share of the United States in the global economic aggregate and the continuous expansion of world trade and investment, the dominance of the US dollar as an international settlement currency and the position of the US financial market as a global resource allocation center will be seriously challenged. Affected by these factors, the position of the American financial system in the world will gradually decline. Accordingly, the position and role of developing countries in the international financial system have been strengthened. We can see the relevant information from the leaders' statement issued at the G20 Summit in 2009: "G20 leaders agreed to increase the share of emerging markets and developing countries in the IMF by at least 5%. Increase the voting rights of developing countries and transition economies in the World Bank by at least 3%. " In this context, the financial crisis has made people see the destructive power of unregulated financial markets, and sovereign investment funds and financial innovation in various countries have begun to be more cautious. Strengthening financial supervision has become a global consensus. It is necessary to emphasize the principle of steady financial development and return to the real economy. Global economic imbalance is the inevitable result of international industrial transfer and deepening international division of labor in the process of globalization, and it is also the inevitable product of the international monetary system based on the US dollar. In a sense, this international financial crisis is a compulsory adjustment when the global economic imbalance is close to the limit. It is bound to push the global economy into a rebalancing adjustment process. Increasing the savings rate and reducing the consumption rate in developed countries will shrink the international import market, while developing countries will be forced to expand domestic demand because of the contraction of the external market. For the export-oriented countries in East Asia, the import market of developed countries is shrinking, global trade is slowing down, and the export growth rate continues to decline, so it is difficult to find new growth points for transferring exports in the short term. For oil exporting countries, the economic recession in developed countries will reduce the demand for oil, and the current account surplus and import demand will be greatly reduced. The rebalancing adjustment of global imbalances is not only manifested in the adjustment of debt consumption growth model represented by the United States, but also in the readjustment process of surplus production growth model represented by East Asian countries.
The development direction of global economy in the post-financial crisis era. The financial crisis occurred in the United States, which largely reflected the lack of new growth points to lead economic development in the United States after the bursting of the dotcom bubble. Without a major breakthrough in the new scientific and technological revolution, it will be difficult for the world economy to reproduce the "Schumpeter-style growth" promoted by the information technology revolution in the 1990s. Historical experience shows that economic crises often lead to major scientific and technological innovations and revolutions. Relying on scientific and technological innovation to cultivate new growth points, new jobs and new growth models is the fundamental way to get rid of the financial crisis. For example, the world economic crisis of 1857 promoted and triggered the second technological revolution marked by the electrical revolution; 1929 the world economic crisis triggered the third technological revolution marked by technological breakthroughs in electronics, aerospace and nuclear energy. At present, both the strong demand in the post-financial crisis period and the energy accumulated by science and technology are giving birth to the fourth technological revolution marked by major breakthroughs in new energy technologies and life sciences. It is a major breakthrough and innovation in science and technology. It has promoted the major adjustment of the economic structure, provided a new growth engine, and brought the economy back to balance and rose to a higher level. Whoever can take the advantage in scientific and technological innovation will take the initiative in development and take the lead in recovery and prosperity. In the process of coping with the financial crisis, major countries in the world have implemented the "Green New Deal" one after another, taking the development of green energy as an important means to stimulate the economy, and set off an upsurge of developing green energy and low-carbon economy. It is likely to become an important driving force for the new scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution. Green energy and low-carbon economy are becoming the commanding heights of international competition, and the competition among countries in the field of green energy technology is more intense. Establishing a low-carbon society and developing a low-carbon economy is expected to become a kind of knowledge of human society and may also become a successful model of global cooperation. "Low-carbon economy" will become a new economic growth point that cannot be ignored. With the development of world industrial economy, the rapid increase of population, the unlimited rise of human desire and the uncontrolled production and lifestyle, the world climate is facing more and more serious problems, the carbon dioxide emissions are increasing, the ozone layer of the earth is suffering from an unprecedented crisis, and catastrophic global climate changes are frequent, which has seriously endangered the living environment and health and safety of human beings. "Low-carbon economy" is an economic model based on low energy consumption, low pollution and low emission, and it is an agricultural civilization of human society. Another great progress after industrial civilization. Low-carbon economy is essentially a problem of high energy utilization efficiency and clean energy structure, and its core is the fundamental change of energy technology innovation, system innovation and human survival and development concept. The development mode of low-carbon economy provides an operable explanation for energy saving and emission reduction, developing circular economy and building a harmonious society, which is the only way to achieve sustainable economic development. It is an irreversible epoch-making trend. "Low-carbon economy" is expected to become an important field of global economic cooperation in the future. "Low-carbon economy" will change people's production and lifestyle, and it is likely to become a new economic growth point that cannot be ignored.
Analysis of China's Economic Environment in the Post-financial Crisis Period
The international financial crisis that broke out in the second half of 2008 had a great impact on China's economy, marking the beginning of a new round of adjustment and transformation of China's economy. In fact, the cyclical correction of China's economy appeared in the second half of 2007, and the economic growth rate of China's economy began to decline quarter by quarter in the third quarter of 2007. It shows that the cyclical adjustment of the economy is earlier than the impact of the international financial crisis on China's economy. Before the outbreak of the international financial crisis, China's economy was already facing enormous adjustment pressure, such as excessive investment growth, excessive credit supply and excessive foreign trade surplus. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the sharp contraction of external demand extended from the downstream processing trade manufacturing sector to the upstream energy and raw materials sector. It has a direct impact on China's real economy. The rapid cooling of the domestic stock market and housing market has led to a decline in the growth rate of fixed assets investment dominated by the real estate industry. China's economic downturn has been further aggravated by real estate-related sectors affecting heavy chemical industries such as steel, petrochemicals, building materials and nonferrous metals, which has made China face the most severe challenge since the Asian financial crisis.
The severe challenges faced by China's economy in the post-financial crisis period
The external environment of China's economic development will be a "slowly recovering world economy". The deep adjustment of global economy makes China face unprecedented challenges in economic adjustment and transformation. The impact of the international financial crisis on China's economy is so great. On the surface, it is due to the sharp contraction of external demand, which leads to a sharp decline in exports, a rapid decline in domestic industrial production and a decline in employment. However, the underlying reason is that the structural contradictions accumulated by the economic growth mode are intensified, which are not only manifested in the demand structure, the imbalance between domestic demand and external demand, the uncoordinated relationship between investment and consumption, and the low contribution rate of consumption to economic growth; Moreover, in the supply structure, the proportion of low value-added industries is too large, the ability of independent innovation is not strong, and the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress and innovation to economic growth is low. These structural contradictions have become more prominent after the outbreak of the financial crisis and must be gradually resolved through a new round of adjustment and transformation. With the deep adjustment of the global economy, the pressure of China's economic slowdown has increased. China's economic growth is increasingly dependent on external demand. The dependence on foreign trade increased from 38.5% in 200 1 year to 64.8% in 2007. In 2008, affected by the financial crisis, the dependence on foreign trade declined and remained at around 60%. This financial crisis triggered the worst economic recession since World War II, which made China's export situation face unprecedented difficulties for many years and had a wide impact on investment, consumption and employment. International trade protectionism is on the rise again, and various restrictions on China's export products have increased significantly, making it more difficult for China to stabilize its export market and share; The rebalancing adjustment of global imbalances has aggravated the contraction of external demand and prolonged its duration. All these indicate that continuing to rely on external demand to stimulate economic growth will face more severe challenges. Accelerating the transformation of economic development mode, effectively expanding domestic demand and reducing the dependence of economic growth on exports are not only the practical urgency for China to cope with the current financial crisis. Moreover, it is of great strategic significance to meet the new challenges that may be brought about by the adjustment of the world economic structure. Two basic characteristics of China's economic growth model are that economic growth relies too much on investment and export, and too much on high-intensity input of low-cost resources and factors. If the global economic prosperity and market expansion brought by the wave of economic globalization before the crisis can enable us to balance the rapidly expanding production capacity by expanding exports, then the deep adjustment of the world economy and market contraction brought about by the international financial crisis have obviously reduced the contribution of external demand to economic growth. In the past, when the economic scale and the total consumption of energy resources were relatively small, high-intensity investment relying on low-cost resources and factors could support high-speed growth. Then, with the rapid expansion of economic scale and the change of supply and demand balance, the original low-cost advantage will be weakened, and the constraints of energy resources and ecological environment will be intensified ... The green energy revolution will make China's scientific and technological development face greater competitive pressure. In order to get rid of the impact of the financial crisis and take the road of "green recovery", developed countries have vigorously developed energy-saving and environmental protection and clean energy technologies to seize the strategic commanding heights of green energy technologies. After taking the lead in promoting the information technology revolution and developing the knowledge economy, they have set off an upsurge of developing green energy and low-carbon economy. China is in the period of accelerating industrialization, with relatively backward conditions of scientific and technological development and human capital, and huge consumption and emission of energy resources. The green scientific and technological revolution makes China face the severe challenge of the green energy revolution when the information technology diffusion has not been completed, and it will face great pressure to develop a low-carbon economy when the technological transformation of energy saving and emission reduction in traditional industries has not been completed. The promotion of China's international status is conducive to playing a greater role on the world stage, and it will also be under pressure to assume more international obligations and responsibilities. With the increasing share of China in the global economy, its contribution to global economic growth has been increasing. Especially in response to the international financial crisis, it has taken the lead in realizing economic recovery, actively participated in promoting the reform of the international monetary and financial system, advocated the establishment of a more balanced and mutually restrictive international monetary system, and tried to settle RMB under trade by strengthening regional and bilateral currency swap arrangements, effectively promoting the regionalization and internationalization of RMB, so as to enhance China's international status. Increasing the right to speak in the international community has brought historic opportunities. At the same time, the international community calls on China to undertake binding emission reduction responsibilities. In the fields of counter-terrorism, nuclear non-proliferation, epidemic control and increasing assistance to the least developed countries, it is also under pressure to assume more obligations and responsibilities. To sum up, in the coming period, the world economic growth will slow down and the international economic environment will undergo extensive and profound changes. China's interaction with the world economy will be significantly enhanced. Promoting a new round of economic adjustment and transformation is not only the need to cope with changes in the international environment and enhance China's initiative in development, but also the strategic requirement for a fast-developing country to promote balanced global economic development, create a good external environment and realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
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