Global warming refers to the phenomenon that the temperature of the earth's atmosphere and ocean rises over a period of time, which is mainly caused by human factors. The reason is probably caused by excessive greenhouse gas emissions. Global warming is a "natural phenomenon". Because people burn fossil minerals to generate energy, or cut down forests and burn them, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are highly transparent to visible light from the sun. The long-wave radiation reflected from the earth has a high absorption, which is often called the "greenhouse effect", leading to global warming. In recent 100 years, the global average temperature has experienced two fluctuations, namely, cold → warm → cold → warm, which is generally considered to be an upward trend. Since the 1980s, the global temperature has obviously increased. Due to global warming, global precipitation will be redistributed and glaciers and frozen soil will melt. The background of global warming Global warming refers to the rise of global temperature. /kloc-since 0/00 years, the global average temperature has experienced two fluctuations: cold-warm-cold-warm, with an overall upward trend. Since the 1980s, the global temperature has obviously increased. 198 1 ~ 1990 The global average temperature was 0.48℃ higher than that before 100. The main reason for global warming is that humans use a lot of fossil fuels (such as coal and oil). ) emit a lot of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. Because these greenhouse gases are harmful to the radiation from the sun, the long-wave radiation reflected by the earth has a strong absorption, which is commonly called "greenhouse effect", leading to global warming. The specific reason for the global warming trend is that people burn fossil minerals to generate energy or cut down forests and burn them to produce carbon dioxide that enters the earth's atmosphere. According to the climate model, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that by 2 100, it is estimated that the global temperature will rise by about 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5- 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit). According to this forecast, in the past 65,438+00,000 years, the global temperature will change dramatically, which will have a potentially significant impact on the global environment. In order to stop the trend of global warming, the United Nations (65,438+0992) agreed to reduce their carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse gases" into the atmosphere to the level of 65,438+0990 by the year 2000. Countries that account for 60% of the global total carbon dioxide emissions in these years also agree to transfer relevant technologies and information to developing countries. These technologies and information transferred from developed countries to developing countries will help developing countries to actively cope with the challenges brought about by climate change. As of May 2004, 65,438+089 countries have formally ratified the above convention. The history and prediction of global warming are real and in progress! The mainstream scientific community agrees that global warming is becoming more and more clear, and it is true that our climate is changing every day, and they are also making progress. Since the end of the 20th century, the average temperature of the earth's surface has increased by about 1. 1f(0.6 degrees Celsius). In the past 40 years, the temperature has risen by about 0.5f(0.2-0.3 degrees Celsius). In the past 400-0 years, the 20th century, more than any period in history, there was 10 year, which happened in the 1990s, because the strongest afternoon, 1998, was the hottest year, because reliable temperature measurement began. In addition, the fact that the earth is warming also supports this change. Glass factories in mountainous areas are also gradually declining; In the past forty years, the thickness of Arctic ice has decreased by about 40%. The global sea level has risen by about 3 times, exceeding the previous 100 year. In the previous 3000 years, more and more studies showed that plants and animals changed their range of activities and behaviors to cope with the climate. According to the instrument records, compared with the period from 1860 to 1900, the global land and ocean temperature rose by 0.75 degrees Celsius. Starting with 1979. The land temperature rises twice as fast as the ocean temperature (land temperature rises by 0.25℃ and ocean temperature rises by 0. 13℃). According to satellite temperature detection, the troposphere temperature rises by 0. 12℃ to 0.22℃ every ten years. In the thousand years before 1850, although there were medieval warm periods and little ice ages, the public thought that the global temperature was relatively stable. According to the research report of Goddard Space Research Institute of NASA, it is estimated that 2005 is the hottest year since the measuring instruments were widely used in 1800, which is several degrees higher than the record of 1998. The World Meteorological Organization and the British Climate Research Institute have similar estimates. It is predicted that 2005 will be the second hottest year after 1998. There are only some temperature records in modern human history. These records come from different places, and their accuracy and reliability are different. It was not until 1860 that a similar global temperature instrument was recorded. I believe that the records of that year were rarely affected by the urban heat island effect. Judging from the long-term prospects shown by various records in the last Millennium, we can see relevant discussions and differences in the past 1000 years. The process of climate change in the last 50 years is very clear, which depends on detailed temperature records. By 1979, humans began to use satellite temperature measurement to measure the temperature in the troposphere. After 2000, high temperature records in various places were often broken. For example, in August 2003, 65438+. The Swiss town of Gronau recorded a temperature of 4 1.5 degrees Celsius, breaking the record of 139. In August of the same year 10, the temperature in London, England reached 38. 1, breaking the record of 1990. In the same period, the lowest temperature in southern Paris at night was 25.5 degrees Celsius, breaking the record of 60 degrees. Germany also broke the record of the highest temperature in a century. In the summer of 2003, Taipei, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Wuhan and Fuzhou all broke the local high temperature records, while Zhejiang Province in China broke the high temperature records even faster, and 40 of the 67 weather stations set new records. In July 2004, the rare high temperature in Guangzhou broke the record for 53 years. In July, 2005, 200 cities in the United States set a record high temperature. On August 6, 2006, the highest temperature in Chongqing reached 43 degrees. On July 8, 2006, the temperature in Yilan, Taiwan Province Province reached 38.8 degrees, breaking the record of 1997. In 2006 it was 1 165438. Even higher than the average maximum temperature of 196 1 to 1990 by 26. 1 degree. According to Xinhua News Agency, American scientists found that ancient agricultural activities prevented the world from entering a new ice age. This shows that global warming caused by human activities may have lasted for thousands of years. Researchers say that prehistoric farmers who cut down trees and reclaimed the first field have greatly changed the content of greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the global temperature has gradually increased. Professor Rudiman of the University of Virginia in the United States said: "If it were not for the greenhouse gases brought by early agriculture, the current temperature of the earth would probably be the temperature of the Ice Age." Rudiman admits that the research results are controversial. The National Center for Atmospheric Research said on June 17. Through two latest studies, scientists predict that even if global greenhouse gas emissions are stable at the level of 2000, the trend of global warming and sea level rise in this century will be irreversible. Scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research published two papers in the journal Science on June 5th at 438+08. The trend of global climate change is predicted from different angles. Their findings will be evaluated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change under the United Nations and will be included in the next global climate change report published in 2007. In the first paper, Wei Gelei of the National Center for Atmospheric Research put forward a simple mathematical model to understand global climate change. He believes that due to the "thermal inertia" of the ocean, the response to external influences such as greenhouse gases is lagging behind. The trend of global warming in this century is only the result of previous greenhouse gas emissions. According to Wei Gray's prediction, by 2400, the greenhouse gas components already existing in the atmosphere will at least increase the global average temperature by 1 degree Celsius. The newly released greenhouse gases will cause the global average temperature to rise by another 2 to 6 degrees Celsius. These two factors will also cause the sea level to rise by10cm and 25cm respectively every century. In his paper, he said that in order to curb the trend of climate warming, global greenhouse gas emissions must be controlled at a very low level. Even if this trend of sea level rise is inevitable, the rising speed of 10 cm per century may be the most optimistic prediction. The second paper published by Gerald Meyer et al. predicts that even if humans do not emit any greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in this century, by 2 100, the global average temperature will rise by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius and the sea level will rise by more than 1 1 cm. Among them, the speed of sea level rise is more than twice that predicted by scientists earlier. Mel explained that this is because the previous forecast did not take into account the impact of glacier melting. Mel's research team used two sets of mathematical models. With the help of supercomputer, the climate and sea level changes of global greenhouse gas emissions at low, medium and high levels are simulated respectively. Global warming is related to the greenhouse effect caused by global warming. However, researchers in Japan and Denmark recently pointed out that the increase of greenhouse gases is not the only cause of climate warming, but the change of solar activity has also played a role in promoting it. According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Professor Koji Ito from the Institute of Environmental Information of Yokohama National University in Japan made a chart. From the chart, the change curves of the average temperature of the earth and the intensity of the solar magnetic field in the past 200 years are basically the same. Therefore, Koji Ito concluded that solar activities also have an impact on climate warming, and it may not be comprehensive to explain climate warming only by increasing greenhouse gases. The influence of solar activity on the earth's temperature has long been concerned by experts. Generally speaking, when there are many sunspots, the solar activity is intense. For example, according to historical records, sunspots rarely appeared in the17th century, when the earth's climate was relatively cold. However, the detection information obtained on the ground also shows that the change of solar radiation energy caused by the change of solar activity intensity is only 0. 1%, and such a small change does not seem to have much impact on the climate. However, a hypothesis has recently emerged in the international space science community. It is believed that the change of solar activity will change the cloud cover over the earth and "amplify" the influence of the sun on the earth, thus affecting climate change. Danish scientists who put forward this hypothesis speculate that cosmic rays emitted to the earth can ionize part of the atmosphere more stably, making it easy for clouds to form, thus absorbing a lot of solar radiation and lowering the temperature of the earth. However, the high-speed charged particle flow released at the peak of solar activity will interfere with cosmic rays emitted to the earth, making it difficult to form clouds. Conversely, the earth's temperature rises. At present, Danish researchers are studying various factors related to cloud formation to demonstrate the above hypothesis. Some Japanese experts suggested that although the variation range of solar radiation energy is only 0. 1%, they found that this energy change can change the absorption of solar ultraviolet rays by several percent in the earth's atmosphere. This increase in absorption will increase the temperature of the atmospheric ozone layer. Koji Bangyan, head of the second research department of Japan Meteorological Institute, said that the change of ozone layer temperature will affect the troposphere, thus affecting the cold current and monsoon, but it is not clear how much impact the above mechanism can have on global warming. In order to continue to study this subject, an international research group composed of Koji Bangyan and others started work last year. There are many reasons for global warming. To sum up, there are the following points: 1. Population explosion factor In recent years, population explosion is one of the main factors leading to global warming. At the same time, it also seriously threatens the balance between the natural ecological environment. The carbon dioxide emitted by such a huge population alone every year will be an amazing number, and the result will directly lead to the continuous increase of carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere. The "greenhouse effect" of carbon dioxide thus formed will directly affect the climate change on the earth's surface. 2. atmospheric environmental pollution factors at present, the increasingly serious environmental pollution has become a major global problem and one of the main factors leading to global warming. Now, the research on global climate change has clearly pointed out that the temperature of the earth's surface has started to rise since the end of last century. 3. Factors of marine ecological environment deterioration At present, the change of sea level is on the rise. According to the prediction of relevant experts, the sea level may rise by 50 cm by the middle of the next century. If no measures are taken, it will directly lead to the destruction and pollution of fresh water resources. In addition, a large number of toxic chemical wastes and solid wastes produced by land activities are continuously discharged into the ocean. Major oil spills in seawater and the destruction of coastal ecological environment by human activities are the main factors leading to the destruction of seawater ecological environment. 4. Land erosion, desertification and other destructive factors. 5. The sharp decrease of forest resources is worldwide. Due to natural or man-made factors, the forest area is greatly reduced. 6. The harm of acid rain The influence of acid rain on the ecological environment has attracted more and more attention all over the world. Acid rain will destroy forests, acidify lakes and endanger living things. At present, most of the acid rain in the world is concentrated in Europe and North America, and most of them occur in developed countries and some developing countries. Acid rain is also occurring and developing rapidly. 7. The accelerated extinction of species. Life on the earth is a precious resource for human beings, and the diversity of life is the basis for human survival and development. But at present, the life on the earth is disappearing at an unprecedented speed. 8. Water Pollution Factor According to the water quality monitoring project of the Global Environmental Monitoring System, about 65,438+00% of the monitored rivers in the world are polluted. Since the beginning of this century, human water consumption has increased rapidly, and the scale of water pollution has been expanding, forming a contradiction between supply and demand of fresh water. It can be seen that the treatment of water pollution will be very urgent and important. 9. With the increase of toxic waste pollution factors, toxic chemicals not only pose a serious threat to human survival, but also do harm to the ecological environment on the earth's surface. 10 The earth's periodic orbit changes from ellipse to circle, which is closer to the sun. According to a scientist's research, the temperature of the earth changes alternately between high temperature and low temperature, which has certain regularity. [Edit this paragraph] Global Warming Luo Yong, deputy director of the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Bureau, said that according to the predictions of many scientists in the world, in the next 50- 100 years, mankind will completely enter a warming world. Due to the influence of human activities, the concentration of greenhouse gases and sulfide aerosols will increase rapidly in 2 1 century, which will lead to the rapid rise of global, East Asia and China temperatures in the future 100, and the global average surface temperature will rise by 1.4℃-5.8℃. The average temperature in China will rise by 2.2 degrees Celsius. "Frequent foggy weather since winter is also a sign of warm winter." Luo Yong said that foggy weather is caused by very weak strong cold air caused by "warm winter". The reality of global warming is constantly sounding the alarm to all countries in the world. Climate warming has seriously affected the survival of human beings and the sustainable development of society. It is not only a scientific problem, but also a comprehensive problem covering politics, economy and energy. The fact of global warming has risen to the height of national security. German researchers say that if the new computer model predicts climate change correctly, the future global temperature may be much higher than some scientists predicted. According to Reuters, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is composed of meteorologists from various countries and studies global climate trends, predicts that by the end of this century, with the doubling of carbon dioxide, the global temperature will rise by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius. However, the latest calculation method of Professor Mainrath Andrea of Max Planck Institute of Chemistry in Mainz and his research team shows that the maximum range of global temperature rise can reach 6 degrees Celsius. Professor Andrea said that this new method unifies suspended particles, greenhouse gases and biosphere effects, changing the previous prediction of climate change. Even if it develops from a tolerable level to a more dangerous situation, Professor Andrea compares greenhouse gases to an accelerator that causes global warming, and the existence of suspended particles can slow down the temperature rise. Suspended particles are tiny particles produced by combustion, chemicals and smoke in the air. With the use of new air purification and regulation devices, the number of suspended particles will decrease, so its cooling effect will become smaller. On the contrary, the global temperature will rise accordingly. Suspended particles can only stay in the atmosphere for one week, while greenhouse gases can stay for about 50 years. In other words, the cooling effect of suspended particulate matter decreases rapidly, while the greenhouse gas decreases slowly. In this way, in the long-term competition, greenhouse gases will eventually overcome suspended particles, followed by scorching hot weather. However, Professor Andrea also admitted that this situation is highly scientific and uncertain. Climate change is also far beyond the scope of experience and scientific understanding. If his calculation is correct, the climate change in 2 1 century will exceed the prediction of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is reported that in another seven years, the global climate will be irreversibly warming. The consequences of global warming According to Xinhua News Agency, researchers at the Worldwatch Institute in the United States recently warned that global warming will lead to a reduction in global agricultural production. Maybe there will be a food shortage in the next century. The researchers came to this view after analyzing the information released by the United Nations and the National Academy of Sciences and the trend of the world rice market. According to world observation research, global warming and the decline of groundwater level will become the direct cause of global food supply shortage, which is reflected in the rising trend of global rice prices. Global warming will also lead to rising sea levels and inundation of coastal areas. That's how the aforementioned continent was submerged. Statistics released by the US government show that even though the global grain harvest last year and the prices of wheat and corn fell, the price of rice still rose by 30%, reaching $260 per ton. A research report published by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) last year showed that the abnormal temperature rise during the rice growing season would reduce the harvest. In addition, in many parts of the world, the problem of falling groundwater level and drying up wells will also have an impact on food production. Global warming, the South Pacific island will soon have no roof. Global warming leads to the rapid melting of Antarctic and Arctic ice sheets, and the sea level has been rising. According to a report of the World Bank, even a slight sea level rise of 1 m is enough to cause 56 million people in developing countries to become refugees. The world's first inhabited island submerged by seawater is about to be born-Catalina Island, located in Papua New Guinea, a South Pacific country. Now the main roads on the island are waist-deep, and all agricultural land has turned into mud. Malaria in agricultural land has ravaged Catalina people who have always been willing to wear traditional clothes to understand life. They have been independent for hundreds of years and have maintained a traditional way of life. However, due to global warming caused by human destruction of the environment, they will face the fate of being submerged by seawater. Paul Tabasi, an environmentalist in Katree Island, said that they were constantly attacked by ocean forces and floods occurred. The original area has been changed and destroyed, and almost all places have been flooded by seawater. At present, the original main roads on the island are now waist-deep. The farmland where coconut trees were originally planted has also turned into mud. What is even more unbearable is that mosquitoes and flies are swarming and malaria is rampant. Experts predict that in a few years, Katri Island will be completely submerged in seawater, and it is imperative for the residents of the whole island to move to the village to evacuate. The Amazon rainforest is gradually disappearing, and the Amazon rainforest, the largest tropical rainforest in South America and even the world, is gradually disappearing. Aggravate the global warming crisis. The Amazon rainforest, known as the lung of the earth, covers 5% of the earth's surface and produces 20% of oxygen and 30% of biological species in the world. Due to illegal logging and deforestation, the Amazon rainforest is disappearing at an area of 7,700 square miles per year, equivalent to the area of New Jersey. The disappearance of the rainforest will not only aggravate global warming, but also make many creatures that can only live in the rainforest face the crisis of extinction. In the past 40 years, the rainforest has disappeared by 20%. How to slow down global warming? Global warming has changed the earth in many ways, and some aspects will also inhibit the trend of global warming. First, global warming will melt some ice and snow on the earth, and the total amount of global liquid water will increase. The specific heat of liquid water is higher than that of ice and snow, and the increased heat due to the greenhouse effect has not significantly increased the temperature of water because of the increase of the total amount of liquid water on the earth. Although the increased heat due to the greenhouse effect significantly increased the temperature of rocks and land on the earth, due to its heat exchange with liquid water on the earth, the whole earth no longer significantly warmed up, which offset the greenhouse effect to some extent and delayed the melting of ice and snow on the earth. Second, global warming makes the green plants on the earth grow vigorously, and its photosynthesis fixes a part of greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide (the main part of greenhouse gases) absorbed before global warming. This part of greenhouse gases no longer prevents the heat on the earth from radiating outward, and also offsets the greenhouse effect to some extent. Global warming increases the total amount of liquid water on the earth, and green plants absorb greenhouse gases, thus delaying the global warming trend and helping to achieve balance. Of course, with the easing of the global warming trend, the increment of liquid water and main greenhouse gases absorbed on the earth is getting smaller and smaller. If the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide is not reduced, the earth will heat up again, causing a new round of total liquid water increase and the growth peak of green plants on the earth, thus delaying the trend of global warming again. Therefore, without reducing the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, the above balance will be alternately formed and broken, and this cycle will make the earth's temperature fluctuate more than before, instead of increasing monotonously; If we reduce the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide or fix the emission of greenhouse gases, we can calm the fluctuation of the earth's temperature. Scientists put forward a bold idea to build an artificial space ring composed of small particles or spaceships around the earth to shield tropical sunlight and adjust the temperature of the earth. However, some opponents believe that this idea will definitely have some side effects. A particle belt that can effectively scatter sunlight will make every night sky as bright as a full moon. And the budget of this plan will be staggering, possibly reaching 6 trillion to 200 trillion dollars. Even NASA, the most well-funded scientific research institution in the world, cannot afford it. If the shot is changed into a spaceship, the budget may be less, and it is estimated that it can be reduced to about 500 billion US dollars. Since the birth of the earth, the atmospheric temperature has experienced several ups and downs. Various factors, such as solar radiation, clouds and greenhouse gases, have affected or are affecting our climate. If we put a "belt" of particles or spacecraft around the earth, a shadow will appear over the equator. In order to deploy these particles, we must use some special control spacecraft to look after the particle swarm like a sheepdog. In the past century, the temperature of the earth has obviously increased, and this trend will continue in the next hundred years. Many studies have confirmed that in the next few centuries, the earth's temperature will rise by 65,438+0 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit, the sea level will rise significantly, and some coastal cities will cease to exist. Some scientists have pointed out that reducing sunlight will reduce the temperature of the earth, and some ground or space systems can completely achieve this goal. However, some scientists pointed out that it is still impossible to calculate how much sunlight the earth can absorb and how much sunlight is reflected back into space. This is a key step in implementing the above plan. Research by American scientists shows that the activities of ancient farmers prevented the world from entering a new ice age. This result shows that global warming caused by human activities is not a new phenomenon, and it may have lasted for thousands of years. The British "Observer" recently quoted researchers as saying that prehistoric farmers who cut down trees and reclaimed the first field greatly changed the content of greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere. As a result, the global temperature is rising gradually. Qian Wei Rudiman, a professor at the University of Virginia in the United States, said, "If it weren't for the greenhouse gases brought by early agricultural activities, the current temperature of the earth would probably be the temperature of the Ice Age." Studies show that without human intervention, the earth will be 2 degrees Celsius lower than it is now, and the spreading ice sheets and glaciers will affect many parts of the world. Some gases emitted by human beings, such as carbon dioxide, methane and chlorofluorocarbons, have the function of absorbing infrared radiation. These gases are called "greenhouse gases". They exist in the atmosphere in large quantities, just like a cover, blocking the heat emitted from the ground. Just like a "greenhouse", scientists call this phenomenon "greenhouse effect". There is a saying that the greenhouse effect is the main cause of global warming. This is put forward by scientists after investigating the correlation between the increase of carbon dioxide emissions and the rise of temperature in the past 100 years. It is believed that controlling greenhouse gas emissions may control global warming and prevent disasters such as ecological balance destruction, agricultural variation and glacier melting. Of course, according to the research of modern environmental science, the correlation between greenhouse effect and global warming is still being further explored. However, people do feel the abnormality of global warming. In this regard, scientists suggest that controlling greenhouse gas emissions may be a preventive measure. There are two reasons for global warming: burning coal and natural gas produces a lot of greenhouse gases; The wanton felling of virgin forests reduces the ability to absorb carbon dioxide. The system of the atmosphere and the earth's surface is like a huge "glass greenhouse", which keeps the earth's surface at a certain temperature all the time and creates an environment suitable for human beings and other living things. In this system, the atmosphere can not only let solar radiation penetrate the ground, but also prevent the loss of ground radiation. We call this protective effect of the atmosphere on the ground the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere. The gas that causes the greenhouse effect is called "greenhouse gas", which allows the short-wave radiation of the sun to pass freely and absorbs the long-wave radiation from the ground. These gases include carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons, ozone, nitrogen oxides and water vapor, of which carbon dioxide is the most important. In the past hundred years, the global climate has gradually warmed, and at the same time, the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has also increased rapidly.