Since this year, the economic situation has made many people more and more puzzled.

The mainstream opinion at the beginning of the year was to publicize the seriousness and even horror of the financial crisis. A once-in-a-century crisis; I don't know when it will bottom out, but it will take at least three years to prepare; Wait a minute.

Half a year has passed, and China announced that the economy has stabilized and rebounded; The United States declared that the worst was over. Almost the two largest economies in the world are just beginning to see the light? Is the once-in-a-century crisis easy to resolve?

In the first half of the year, China's GDP increased by 7. 1%, which reached 7.9% in June. There is almost no suspense in the industry to ensure the goal of 8% growth this year; In the first half of the year, CPI decreased by 1.2%, while asset value increased in the same period. Recently, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3,000 points, and housing prices in big cities began to rise, with sales increasing by 37% year-on-year. This phenomenon puzzles many economists. Why do consumer prices run counter to asset prices?

Recently, I had the privilege of listening to a report. Reporter Cao Yuanzheng, born in June, 1954, is currently the deputy executive director and chief economist of BOC International Holdings Limited, a professor and doctoral supervisor at the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, a visiting professor at the University of Southern California, an adjunct professor at Shanghai Jiaotong University and a researcher at the Peking University Economic Research Center. One of the fifty members of China Economic Forum enjoys the special government allowance of the State Council. He was an economic expert in the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the United Nations Development Programme. Since 1990, he has worked as an economic consultant in several countries with economies in transition. For some problems, it still has a great role in solving doubts. Take out the main points and share them with you.

First, the impact of the financial crisis. Compared with the great crisis in the 1930s, the scope and depth of this impact is indeed greater. Because the degree of globalization today is much higher than that of that year. However, the tragic degree seems to be much better. The level of productivity has been greatly improved, and the main contradiction is that productivity is difficult to play, not that manufacturing capacity is insufficient after productivity is seriously damaged. So we didn't have serious homelessness and displacement this time. Even if the rising unemployment rate has become a common phenomenon in the world, at best, life is a little tight, and it is basically ok. I understand that the failure of a century mainly refers to the degree of influence, not the degree of tragic.