In the spring of 2008, the world economic situation was not as warm as people expected. On the contrary, the shadow of the subprime mortgage crisis has not dissipated, and the American economy is still hovering at a low ebb, which will drag down the economic growth of developing countries in Europe and Asia. The prices of basic raw materials, especially oil and agricultural products, have soared, and global inflationary pressures have risen significantly. The food problem and inflation pose a threat to the stable economic and social development of many developing countries. Judging from the current situation, the world economy still needs to go through a rather bumpy road.

Subprime Crisis: Is it coming to an end?

Since the subprime mortgage crisis broke out on a large scale last summer, the credit crisis in the international financial market has been spreading, and its negative impact is spreading to the real economy. Thanks to the generous liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve and the generous blood transfusion for financial institutions, the critical situation of some large financial institutions in the United States has been alleviated. Recently, the US stock market began to stabilize and the financial market began to show some vitality. Some heavyweights in American financial circles say that the worst stage may have passed. Even some market analysts are optimistic that the subprime mortgage crisis will soon end, the US economy will regain its upward trend in the second half of the year, and the US dollar will strengthen again.

However, it is not optimistic that the current tension in the credit market has not been significantly alleviated, and the problems of small and medium-sized financial institutions in the United States will be exposed in the next few quarters. Especially as the source of trouble, the housing market is far from bottoming out. The latest data shows that the sales of single-family houses in the United States decreased by 8.5% in March, reaching the lowest level since June 199 1. The American economy is still on the verge of recession. In the first quarter, the economic growth rate was only 0.6% (calculated at an annual rate), and house prices continued to fall. All these may cause problems in other credit products, and even make a large number of high-quality mortgage loans into negative assets, thus forming a more violent impact on the financial market.

In addition, in Europe, because the economic cycle lags behind that of the United States, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis may just be revealed now. Some experts predict that in the foreseeable months, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on Europe may be more serious than that of the United States. The cold current of American real estate has obviously affected the European market. After years of soaring, the real estate markets in Britain, Ireland, Spain and other countries began to fall. The European economy has shown signs of fatigue. According to the monthly survey of the European Commission, the economic prosperity index of the euro zone unexpectedly fell sharply in April, the lowest level since August 2005. The data shows that the business climate index of Germany and France also hit the lowest level since 2006 in April. The decline in consumer demand in the United States and Europe will affect the exports of Japan and emerging economies. In particular, the United States has provided excess liquidity, and the dollar has been depreciating, pushing up the prices of basic commodities. The inflationary pressure in emerging countries has suddenly risen, and the stable economic growth has been obviously threatened.

Therefore, it can be said that in the American financial market, which is the center of the subprime mortgage crisis, some large financial institutions may be able to breathe a sigh of relief, but the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the American economy and the global economy is still developing and will certainly last for a long time, but how serious it is remains to be seen.

Oil and food prices: how long will it soar?

With the development of the subprime mortgage crisis, the rising prices of crude oil and grain have repeatedly challenged people's psychological endurance. In particular, the rise in food prices has led to social unrest in some countries and regions, which has become the focus of international attention. There are various explanations about the reasons for the continuous rise of oil and food prices, and the controversy has been constant.

As for the reasons for the rise in oil prices, the popular explanations in the West are: China, Indian and other emerging countries have strong economic growth and increased demand for crude oil; Due to geopolitics, abnormal climate, rising oil production costs and the lack of active production in oil-producing countries, it is difficult to improve crude oil production capacity; In addition, the depreciation of the dollar and speculation in the crude oil market have also pushed up oil prices. In fact, in China's energy consumption structure, the proportion of crude oil is only about 1/5, and its dependence on foreign countries is not high. However, in recent years, various financial institutions have entered the commodity trading business, making the oil market more unfathomable. Some analysts pointed out that there are supply and demand factors in the rise of oil prices, but other factors have also played a big role. In the context of the global financial market turmoil, many investors turned their funds to commodities such as oil, which pushed up prices and further encouraged speculation.

In recent years, the global grain output has been increasing moderately, and there has been no serious crop failure. In 2007, it reached a record of 265,438+300 million tons. There are many reasons for the increase in food prices, such as the reduction of production in some areas due to climate change, and the policy of restricting food exports in some countries has aggravated the contradiction between supply and demand in the international market and increased the fluctuation of food prices. Some people even say that one of the important reasons for the rise in food prices is the improvement of living standards in developing countries such as China and Indian, and the increasing demand for meat food requires more food to produce feed. But the rise in crude oil prices is actually a more important reason. On the one hand, the rise in oil prices has increased the prices of fertilizers and diesel oil, and increased the cost of grain production; On the other hand, rising oil prices have stimulated the demand for biofuels and consumed more corn. According to some data, since the beginning of this century, the consumption of American corn industry has soared year by year. By the end of 2007-2008, the consumption of corn industry had increased to 24.69 million tons, which was equivalent to the total consumption of corn feed in Southeast Asia (6.5438+0.54 million tons) and the total consumption of feed in the 27 EU countries (48.65438+0.60 tons). It can be said that the increase or decrease of feed consumption has negligible influence on corn price. In addition, there is another reason that can't be ignored, that is, all kinds of speculation are undoubtedly a new force pushing up food prices.

It must be noted that in recent decades, the governments of the United States and Europe have heavily subsidized agricultural products, making many countries' investment in agriculture unprofitable, and the world granaries have been transferred from North Africa, Southeast Asia and other places to developed countries such as Europe and the United States. Rising food prices have had a great impact on developing China countries. In particular, the pricing power of international oil prices and food prices is mainly in the United States, and the impact of high oil prices and food prices on the United States is relatively small. As long as the inflationary pressure in the United States is tolerable and there is no problem with the capital chain, we cannot expect the United States to take active actions to curb the rise in oil prices and food prices, and the black hand of speculative funds to create price bubbles will not stop.

China Economy: Taking off against the wind will bring new glory.

The loose monetary policy adopted by the United States to save financial institutions in the subprime mortgage crisis led to the flood and depreciation of the dollar, and the prices of oil, agricultural products and precious metals pushed up each other in the global chain reaction, which triggered the rise of global inflationary pressure. Especially in developing countries like China, under the existing economic structure, the challenge is more severe, and it is quite difficult to find a balance between maintaining rapid economic growth and controlling inflation. However, from another perspective, if we can turn external pressure into power, change the mode of economic development, adjust the industrial structure and promote industrial upgrading, China's economy will take off against the wind and usher in a more lasting new glory. At present, the most urgent task may be mainly in the following three aspects:

First of all, it is also fundamental to vigorously promote economic restructuring from a strategic perspective and effectively change the mode of economic development. Create a good environment, improve the income distribution structure, and fundamentally expand consumption. In foreign trade, we should pay more attention to quality, and we should not sacrifice labor welfare, resources and environment for export. Promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and service industries, and make the proportion of primary, secondary and tertiary industries more coordinated and reasonable. Under the current circumstances, to effectively increase employment, the improvement of industrial structure may be more important than the speed of economic growth.

Furthermore, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of hot money and promote the reform of the financial system in a safe and orderly manner in the light of China's national conditions. Relevant data show that since the end of last year and this year, the amount of hot money flowing into China for short-term arbitrage is staggering. Once the hot money returns, it will inevitably have a huge impact on the normal operation of the economy. Therefore, it is urgent to strengthen the supervision of hot money. In addition, we must constantly improve the financial system, scientifically build a multi-level capital market, and enhance the flexibility to resist external shocks. While implementing a tight monetary policy, we should broaden private investment channels through policy incentives, encourage and guide funds to flow into the central and western regions and rural areas, and alleviate structural excess liquidity.

In addition, we should raise the development of agriculture to a higher strategic level. In recent years, China has always attached importance to agricultural development and rural construction, and there will be no food crisis at present. However, the food crisis in today's world has sounded the alarm for us. The proportion of agricultural output in the national GDP is not high, which seems to have little effect on solving the employment problem, but its economic strategic position is very important. It is necessary to establish a national grand strategic concept of food security and abandon the political naive concept of "you can buy food as long as you have money"; Abandon the so-called "land value maximization" strategic short-sighted concept. With new ideas and a longer-term perspective, we should coordinate urban and rural development, effectively protect cultivated land and promote industrialization and urbanization in an orderly manner on the premise of ensuring agricultural development and rural construction.