Momentum theory itself is a pure technical analysis theory, its content is the market behavior of the securities market, and the essence of the market is determined by the operating conditions and performance of listed companies. The stock price level should show a certain correspondence with the company performance. What is this? We use the growth rate hypothesis? To interpret. The following are three main points of the growth rate hypothesis.
Point 1: The long-term stock price level is a true reflection of enterprise management, and the fluctuation of stock price is generated around its true value. The long-term level of stock price has reflected the business performance of enterprises. After the publication of the annual report and interim report, the change of stock price only reflects the difference. Future stock price changes will reflect changes in the company's intrinsic value. This is the concrete embodiment of Marxist law of value in the securities market. Although the calculation of the actual value of stock price is clear in theory, it is much more complicated in the practice of stock market. First of all, it is difficult to accurately calculate the true value of stocks. Usually, we use the cash discount model to calculate the intrinsic value of stocks. Specifically, we use binary model to calculate. Here we need to estimate the future dividend income and discount rate. Different people have different estimates, so the conclusions are different. Among them, small differences in discount rates may cause great changes in the results. Because the intrinsic value is difficult to calculate, we can estimate the real value of the stock in turn according to the long-term stock price level of the stock. The long-term stock price level is a true reflection of the true value of the enterprise, but the stock market better reflects the true value of the stock, which is the result of joint voting and joint evaluation by many investors. For a company with many operational difficulties and large losses, its true value may even be lower than the value of book assets (including tangible assets and intangible assets), while for a company with good development prospects, excellent performance and high growth, its true value may be far greater than the value of book assets. The stock price fluctuates around the real value, rather than the so-called value regression according to the book value. Warren, the king of world stocks. In his early investment career, Buffett devoted himself to practicing Ugland's value concept and chose stocks with investment price lower than book value. As a result, it was found that all of them were invalid investments that could not bring benefits and profits, and some even lost money. What Buffett has learned is that many companies he once bought at a low price are cheap because their operating conditions are facing a crisis. It was not until I accepted Fisher's theory of enterprise characteristics and learned from Fisher how to identify and choose advantageous enterprises for investment that I gradually embarked on a smooth road.
Point 2: When a company's operating performance rises substantially, its future dividend income will also increase substantially. According to the discounted cash flow model, the real value of the company will also increase, so that the long-term level of the stock price in the secondary market will rise, and the K-line chart will form an upward macro-trend market. That is, the long-term trend of stock price corresponds to the growth ability or growth potential of enterprises. In other words, there is a corresponding relationship between basic factors and technical charts, which is to build a bridge between basic analysis and technical analysis. The basic reason and technical diagram are actually the relationship between two sides of a thing, the relationship between essence and appearance. The basic factor is the essence, and the technical drawing is the representation. I came across this phenomenon when I was studying Buffett's investment philosophy. Buffett himself is a basic analyst, and there is no modern trading computer in his office. He never looks at computer charts, but Buffett's stocks have a * * * feature, that is, the stocks he chooses are all long-term upward trends, all of which are big bull stocks, and the buying timing is all carried out during the movement of big bull stocks. (Buffett himself is not aware of this). This also shows that basic analysis and technical analysis can actually be unified. In the macro trend analysis of individual stocks, the analysis results of the two are consistent. For those companies with good performance and high growth, the macro trend is rising, while for those companies with poor operating performance or even serious losses, the macro trend is declining, or hovering at a low level for a long time. When the market is relatively balanced, such stocks will be divided. Stocks with good performance are divided up, and stocks with poor performance are divided down. This is the law of individual stock differentiation. The internal reason is the company's own operating conditions. This has nothing to do with the rise and fall of the whole market. In other words, the macro trend of individual stocks is independent and has nothing to do with the rise and fall of the market. On the one hand, the short-term stock price fluctuation has its own characteristics, on the other hand, it is related to the market fluctuation. The short-term trend of each stock is the result of the superposition of these two markets. For stocks with strong profitability and high growth, when the market rises, individual stocks rise sharply and the gains are strong; When the market falls, the decline of individual stocks is small, so the long-term trend of individual stocks is upward differentiation. Moreover, the stronger the profitability, the higher the growth, and the greater the stock price increase, and vice versa. For most stocks with weak profitability and low growth, they rise and fall with the rise and fall of market trends, and rise and fall with the rise and fall of macroeconomics.
Viewpoint 3: The above viewpoints only consider the decisive role of the company's operating performance on the stock price, ignoring the influence of investors' psychological factors on the stock market, and cannot reflect the whole picture of the stock price rise and fall. Because when the growth of listed companies is very high, investors are optimistic, so everyone has joined the ranks of snapping up, forming a snapping up tide. With the help of the main force, the stock price has soared, even far exceeding the true value of the stock. For example, Buffett bought shares of Coca-Cola Company at 1992. In three years, Buffett made four times the profit, while the performance of Coca-Cola Company was far lower than the increase of share price. In other words, high growth can induce popularity and push the stock price to rise sharply, that is, high growth is the real driving force for the stock price to rise sharply? . In short, the share price of low-growth companies will not rise sharply, but will rise and fall with the rise and fall of the market; Companies with negative performance will not rise sharply, but differentiate downwards, and the long-term trend is downward. Only high-growth companies will rise sharply, and the increase will far exceed the company's growth rate. Sometimes even individual stocks are independent and will not be affected by market linkage. Foreign professional researchers also found this conclusion when studying the corresponding relationship between the basic factors of the company and its stock price.
In the performance of the K-line chart in the secondary market, if the long-term trend of stock price is rising, then individual stocks are the characteristics of bull market. The reason why a stock can present a bull market is because it must be supported by high growth performance or have high growth potential in the future, which shows that the enterprise has entered the road of benign development with unlimited potential. With the continuous operation of the company, the intrinsic value of the company will continue to appreciate, and the long-term trend of the stock price will continue to rise. The stronger the growth, the stronger the upward trend. On the premise of having this condition, the main force will build a position to pull up. The research results show that if I am the main force, I will try my best to pull it up, and the strength of this pull-up is so great that you can't imagine, often several times, ten times or even dozens of times. In the long run, the fundamental reason to promote the long-term growth of stocks is growth and future growth, not the main speculation. The main hype can only play a role in strengthening the trend momentum and add fuel to the flames. As far as the essence of bull stock is concerned, because the development potential of the enterprise itself is infinite, as long as the enterprise still has high growth and vitality, the intrinsic value of the company will become larger and larger, and the long-term trend of the stock price will rise higher and higher, and no one knows where it will stand. For example, the share price of Coca-Cola Company has risen 500 times in 60 years and is still rising. Since its establishment, Yahoo has risen by 120 times in six years, and it is still rising strongly and sharply, which seems endless. For another example, the long-term trend of Guodian Power has been rising since its listing. Even in a bear market, it has never fallen sharply, and it is usually adjusted step by step, and then it rises sharply. Strong resilience, low risk, high success rate and steady appreciation.
This kind of company has strong strength and growth ability. The development law of enterprises is that the strong will always be strong, so the long-term trend of stock prices is also that the strong will always be strong. At the same time, because the enterprise's operating state is very healthy and has enough ability to resist the fluctuation of economic cycle and economic crisis, even if it encounters temporary minor troubles or is affected by the stock market decline, it will reverse the passive situation through the continuous operation of the enterprise. On the K-line chart, the differentiation of individual stocks is upward, and the resilience is also very strong. On the K-line chart of big bull stocks, it is clear, strong and stable. There are three characteristics: exponential, stepped and wavy. The key to investing in this kind of stock is to understand the operating characteristics of the enterprise, establish the investment concept and buy a company instead of its stock. Only in this way can we dare to invest. But this kind of market has gone up so much that most people are afraid to buy it. The more they dare not buy, the greater the increase. Facts have proved that it is wrong not to dare to buy. So why is everyone afraid to buy it? It is caused by fear, speculation, speculative thinking, psychological pressure and other factors. The key is not understanding the charm of big bull stocks, not establishing a correct investment concept and lacking self-confidence. As long as the enterprise has (future) growth, bull stocks will continue to rise; At the end of growth, bull stocks entered the market and fluctuated at a high level; When the negative growth declines, the long-term trend of big bull stocks will turn to decline. (Of course, if it is over-hyped, the long-term trend of individual stocks will also turn down). Therefore, from the perspective of risk, success rate, return rate and trading strategy, bull stock is the most ideal stock.
In the process of macro-trend rising, the market trend in the middle process is technical quotation, which is only a movement process in the process of macro-trend rising. In this process, there will be all kinds of good news in the rising market and all kinds of bad news in the falling market. In fact, all kinds of news are just artificially created and used by people to explain the reasons for the market's ups and downs. It is produced according to time, so we don't have to pay attention to it. We only need to judge the state of the market trend according to the push wave or judge the turning point of the market trend according to the reverse push wave.
These are the three main points of the growth rate hypothesis theory, which is a set of financial analysis theory. It is of great significance to establish a correct investment concept. However, the defect of this theory is that financial analysis is often lagging behind. We can only speculate based on past data, so it is better to analyze the basic factors in time. It is only suitable for studying the long-term operation of the company, not for concept hype.
From the above point of view, we find that the basic factor is the internal factor that determines the direction of the macro trend of stock prices, while the specific performance of the secondary market is different. The growth rate hypothesis has not been discussed, and it can only be explained qualitatively according to the growth rate, and its quantitative analysis can only be empirical and theoretically impossible. How to solve this problem? The analysis method of momentum theory is an effective method. Is the direction of market trend based on the direction of pushing waves? This principle, as long as the driving wave is judged, can timely and accurately judge the changes of market state and market trend, and then accurately grasp the pulse of the market. The analysis method of adding fuel to the fire can be applied to traditional value investment, confidence investment and even irrational speculation.
Finally, the long-term trend of stocks depends on growth and future growth, while the long-term trend of futures depends on inflation, deflation and macroeconomic development, and the long-term trend of foreign exchange depends on the balance and imbalance of economic development in various countries.