1, 2022-2025 sea breeze hoisting quantity expectation:

In 2022, the lifting capacity of all wind power is expected to be 45-50GW, and the upper limit of sea breeze is 8GW. Shandong 2GW, Jiangsu1.5GW. Guangdong is mainly stock resources and newly started projects. It is estimated that between 2.5-3gw, the quantity in Fujian is relatively small, about 65,438+10,000 kilowatts, not exceeding 300,000 kilowatts. Liaoning, Zhejiang, Hainan and Guangxi add up to 2-2.5GW, which basically gets the amount completed at sea. It is expected that construction will be concentrated around April.

In 2023, the growth rate of both sea and land is relatively fast. Affected by national policies, the average annual growth rate from 2023 to 2025 is 10%. It is expected to reach 60G in 2023. With the maturity of industrial chain, product stability will be improved and scale advantage will be more obvious. From 2023, wind power will form a stable output capacity, which is expected to increase by 50-60GW. The proportion of sea breeze is gradually increasing. Land-based wind power occupies land, which has an impact on the ecological environment and is rich in sea breeze resources. It is estimated that the sea breeze will increase by 15GW in 2023.

Personally, I feel that the installation of sea breeze will show a steady growth trend every year during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. Because the installation opportunities of onshore wind power are controlled year by year, the proportion of onshore installed capacity will not continue to increase after the 14 th Five-Year Plan. After all, land resources are limited, and offshore wind power development resources are unlimited. After all, there are profound marine resources.

It is estimated to be only 8GW in 2022, because most of the projects started in April, but started after June. The production capacity will continue to develop steadily in 2023. Many models launched in 2022 are new models. After winning the bid, it takes a lot of time to get the order and communicate with suppliers, logistics providers and raw material suppliers, so the production capacity will change in the second half of 2022. By 2023, this fault will no longer exist and continue steadily.

After 2024 and 2025, with the continuous improvement of production efficiency and product stability, everyone will fix the products, and the first few manufacturers will concentrate on winning the bid, with an estimated annual growth of 10%.

2. The increase of sea breeze of 8GW is to adapt to the transportation difference between tower and submarine cable:

8GW refers to the grid-connected installed capacity. When calculating the grid-connected installed capacity, some projects have already erected iron towers or wind turbines, or he has installed wind turbines, and submarine cables are still being laid, and some projects may be left to be completed in 2023. Under normal circumstances, the delivery of towers and submarine cables will be larger than that of the main engine, which is difficult to evaluate.

3, the difference between hoisting and installation:

Think of it as a thing in the industry. Installed capacity refers to the grid-connected capacity, and the completion of hoisting is a physical activity, so how much capacity can only be fed back manually. The installed capacity at the national level is grid-connected capacity, which accurately reflects the working capacity, which is the accurate installed capacity.

cost apportionments

1. Breakdown of cost ratio of each link of fan:

Land is relatively simple, and the main engine accounts for 60%-70% of the cost. Wind turbines are the largest part in the sea breeze, and the proportion is generally between 40% and 50% due to different ships and construction conditions. The cost of fans in Jiangsu accounts for 48%, in Guangdong 43% and in Fujian 45%. The second highest is fan foundation and construction, about 15%-18% in Jiangsu, 23%-24% in Guangdong and 25% in Fujian. The third major component is the offshore booster station, with 5%-6% in Jiangsu, 3% in Guangdong and 3%-4% in Fujian. The fourth is optical cable, that is, submarine optical cable, with 5% in Jiangsu, 8% in Guangdong to 10% and 4%-6% in Fujian. There is also a relatively large cost of land acquisition and sea use. The cost of land acquisition in each region is 3%, the cost of sea expropriation is between 3% and 5%, and other relative proportions are small.

2, large-scale impact on the cost ratio:

Large-scale helps the cost. In 2020, Goldwind's 6.7MW wind turbine was the largest offshore wind turbine in China at that time. At present, the largest offshore fan that has been hoisted in China is Dongfang 10MW. The bigger the fan, the fewer units installed in the project, and the fewer corresponding towers and foundations. The foundation and tower corresponding to a wind turbine should be at least 50 million yuan (202 1 year price). Therefore, large-scale construction is at least helpful in saving sea area, improving power generation efficiency, increasing income, reducing the number of infrastructure and towers, and the number of related components of the main engine.

3. Expectation of future submarine cable price trend:

Submarine cable is a physical output, so it is difficult to reduce the cost. Only through scale advantage and centralized procurement can the price be reduced. At present, there is not much room for reducing costs. Moreover, the length of submarine cable is difficult to shorten, and it must be buried under the sea to ensure safety. Many people suggest that it is very difficult to reduce the length of submarine cable to save costs if you want to float in mid-air. Only by scientifically planning the distance between submarine cable and booster station and minimizing detours can the booster station be connected in a straight line to reduce consumption.

4, the impact of rising raw materials on the sea breeze industry chain:

In fact, the offshore wind power industry chain is not an independent industry chain, which needs FRP, steel and electronic components. The direction to reduce the cost is to reduce the weight of the main engine and the tower, or to reduce the gearbox of the main engine to a double-fed unit and a semi-direct drive unit, to reduce the weight of the gearbox and the spindle, and to reduce the product weight from the perspective of never reducing the product quality, so as to realize the basic cost reduction from this aspect.

Reduce the price of raw materials through large-scale batch production. At present, the mainstream sea breeze units should be above 10MW, and it is best to lock the mainstream orders in a supply chain enterprise or even the upstream enterprise of this manufacturer in the next three years. This requires the product to remain stable and competitive in the next few years, so as to scale up, make the life cycle of the whole product longer and the service life of the mold longer, so as to achieve the ultimate goal of promoting the decline by quantity.

5. Price increase of fan parts:

When parts companies talk about prices, it is basically not a big deal to raise prices. Head manufacturers are now trying their best to win market orders. From the price point of view, a single price may be difficult to calculate the economic account. If suppliers can't accept the price reduction together, they can only go out. For example, the reason why head manufacturers develop new suppliers is to use new suppliers to force old suppliers to reduce costs and promote technological innovation.

In this industry, as long as there is scale advantage, there will be new suppliers willing to increase R&D investment and reduce costs. Industry concentration is very high. The market share of the top ten host manufacturers has reached 97%, and each host manufacturer has a certain order volume. You can bargain with the parts company. If the spare parts enterprises can't accept the demand of equal price reduction, they can choose to develop new suppliers instead. Most suppliers are still optimistic about the scale prospect of the whole wind power market in the future and are unwilling to quit. Therefore, even if it is slightly profitable or stable, it will still participate in the supply chain of head OEM.

6. Parts bargaining power comparison:

The bargaining power of parts enterprises is not high. Because the real bargaining power is to master resources. 202 1, the bargaining power is owned by the main engine manufacturers and even comrades-in-arms, as well as the generator manufacturers and shipping workers. Last year, the bargaining power of the owners was the weakest, because they had to complete the project beyond the original budget, so they had no bargaining power and were in a weak position.

This year, the main owners of China are five big and six small developers, who have more resources and have a higher pressure tolerance for rate of return on capital. Second, it is the host company that gets more resources, and it will also have certain bargaining power. It is not that a component has bargaining power, but that enterprises can lock in the development resources of offshore wind power or onshore wind power through investment, thus ensuring their profits in the whole industrial chain.

7, wind power hoisting construction cost changes:

Last year, the highest cost of wind power construction was 20 million 1 set. The reasonable cost should be 4 million 1 set. The construction cost this year is estimated to be between 300 and 400 pounds. Because the resources of lifting vessels are still relatively tight this year, there are five vessels that can lift more than 10MW in China. The mainstream models are all above 8MW, which can meet the hoisting resources above 8MW. Actually, there are about 12 ships. The competition for hoisting resources is still fierce, and the contradictions gradually become prominent in the second half of the year. Of course, some new resources will enter the market, but the maturity and stability of the operation have yet to be verified by the market.

The hoisting cost has indeed been reduced. Because there are also some new hoisting ship resources entering the market. Moreover, the current price is estimated according to the resources that I can grab the hoisting ship, because the rushing period has passed, and the market is not allowed to expect the hoisting of18 million to 20 million. Now, except for Guangdong, there is no subsidy in all regions, and there is no such strict requirement on the construction period, and there will be no crazy price increase to grab resources.

8. Price changes of onshore wind turbines:

Now it has fallen to 1480 yuan. Personally, I feel that I can't fall any more. If it falls again, it has violated business logic. This year, the normal price is maintained at around 1800, which should be the trend in recent years. Now there are only a few enterprises that lead the market to reduce prices. At present, a large number of orders are needed to maintain their market share and bargaining power. But whether this strategy can guarantee profitability depends on the market test.

business model

1, business model of wind power plant:

There are many business models of wind power plants. If the development right of the wind farm is in the municipal government, it can be obtained by signing an agreement with the municipal government. For example, Jiangsu's development rights can basically be decided by the Yancheng Municipal Government and only reported to the Jiangsu Provincial Government, so that resources can be matched. Even the development right of Jiangsu resources can be decided at the regional level. After obtaining the resources, the resources obtained by the host company will be used to find a development enterprise, and how much profit it wants from the development enterprise, and then the development enterprise will cooperate with the host enterprise to find a supporting supply chain. At present, in several key areas in Jiangsu, OEMs are all right to speak to obtain resources. In Fujian, the owner is the investment unit, because Fujian does not allow the host company to invest. At present, there are two models in Shandong.

The development mode is that no matter who obtains the development right, the first one is bidding, the other is construction bidding and the other is host bidding. Nowadays, in order to control costs, many regions use design institutes as EPC general contractors, package the whole construction, ensure the lowest rate of return of owners, and transfer the risks to a group of enterprises. However, the whole project is out of control, because the budget control of EPC enterprises is not good, and the investment is temporarily increased. The second mode is that the owner manages all the links. Main engine procurement, tower procurement, and signing contracts with public units. In this way, the owner's ability to control all links is relatively strong, which is beneficial to the cost of the project, but also tests the owner's management ability.

The construction sequence of the fan factory is the foundation construction first. After the installation platform construction is completed, the lifting of the booster station can be completed according to the construction progress during the construction process. After these constructions are completed, the fans will be transported and hoisted.

Regarding the payment cycle, take the host enterprise as an example. Before production, the host accounted for the highest proportion because of different payment methods. Generally, during the rush to install the main engine last year, 50% of the payment will be paid first, and then 20%-30% will be paid after it is delivered to the aircraft position, and then 10% will be paid after the hoisting is completed. After grid-connected power generation, give 10%, and keep 5%- 10% as quality guarantee. After returning to rationality, referring to the model in 2020, the main engine factory will charge 30% advance payment before production, 30-50% after arrival at the airport, 10% during grid-connected debugging, 10% after full-load grid-connected, and finally reserve 5%- 10% quality guarantee.

2, the relationship between the ability of enterprises to obtain resources and the government:

Resource industry. Now the agreement signed between central enterprises and host enterprises and the government is actually a kind of gambling. Now the government has gradually realized that it needs to invest first to bring the industry up. Whoever builds the industry first may tilt resources in the future. But this is actually testing whether each host company and five big six small investors can accurately judge the regional development rhythm.

Because of military, marine and fishery problems, the region has no way to obtain resources, but there is no chance to obtain resources without moving. You can see that major enterprises in the industry are promoting how many kilowatts of resources they have signed with a certain government, but this does not mean that they have locked in the right to develop resources. In the future, only industrial investment can exchange resources.

Taking Shandong as an example, the investment of 654.38 billion yuan was changed to 200,000 kilowatts of photovoltaic, and the standards vary from place to place, depending on the urgent need of the industry. Why can OEMs invest more resources? Because the OEM will naturally support the supply chain. For example, a mainframe enterprise has 3 million kW resources and can complete the development within three years. Then this host enterprise will have a very strong ability to drive the industry, and can drive the main towers, generators, blades and other enterprises in the industrial chain to be localized. In fact, it depends on how many enterprises can be brought to the ground in addition to their own landing. The more supporting supply chain enterprises can be driven, the more resources enterprises will get. Because generators and blades are not built around the main engine enterprises, logistics and transportation costs are high.

Competition pattern

1, changes in the competition pattern of the fan industry:

The concentration will continue to increase. Now the market share of the top seven is getting higher and higher. 2, 3 and 4 have divided the market share of the boss this year. But generally speaking, the market share of Goldwind, Yuanjing, Yangming, Sany Heavy Industry, Haizhuang and Dong Qi will basically be around 90%. Because the market share of the latter three is already very low, and it will continue to fall. Last year, the cumulative hoisting capacity of the three major foreign OEMs in China was less than 2%, which can basically be judged this year.

2. The globalization process of wind power industry chain:

Even if the transportation cost is included, the towers and blades in China are exported independently. Sinosteel's raw materials are included in the transportation cost, and this price is still competitive when shipped abroad, because China has low raw material cost, low labor cost and low international freight cost, which makes all parts and components exported.

The road to internationalization in the future is something that domestic machine manufacturers must continue and expand. Because if you want to get the resources of a certain area now, you must build a factory. To achieve the stable development of the factory, only stable and continuous production, excess capacity should go abroad.

China's whole machine, main engine, blades and generators may continue to be exported abroad. And the market share will continue to increase. Because with the promotion of the national Belt and Road policy, including the gradual opening of markets in Southeast Asia, Japan and South China, Japanese enterprises have formed a large-scale capacity advantage. Now, under the pressure of the national double-carbon cost reduction policy, the cost advantage is becoming more and more obvious, and the export volume is expected to continue to grow.

It is hard to say when China's fan industry will grow substantially overseas, but some enterprises are already trying to do so. The way to break the deadlock in China should be to seek the production of our industry in foreign territory, so that the local government can reduce the resistance. With the stability of the domestic market, it is more and more possible for some enterprises to invest and build factories abroad, such as building a small factory abroad first, and this model will gradually take shape.

3, bearing localization process:

Except for the main bearing, it has been basically localized, and the main bearing can be below 6MW. However, over 6MW, China does not have the manufacturing capacity of this precision large bearing, and relies on foreign manufacturers to supply it.

Vermicelli price and its large-scale influence

1, sea breeze host price competition:

Now the lowest price of offshore wind power should be 3780 yuan /kW. The judgment of this price is to lock in resources first and then enhance investor confidence. However, this kind of project is easy to delay delivery, which shows that when the bid is actually won, the reserves such as production capacity, materials and manpower are not enough for delivery. So the news of wind power development in China is different from the reality.

Some enterprises adjust the internal rate of return with a lower investment limit of not less than 8% to 5.8%. This is a very big downward adjustment. However, there are still some mature enterprises whose return on investment is still required to reach 8%. The construction quotation of some enterprises in Fujian can't reach the return on investment of 8%. If they fail to start construction, they will face the possibility that the development resources will be recovered by the provincial government.

2. Fujian sea breeze subsidy:

Fujian has never introduced any subsidy policy, because Fujian is one of the only regions with superior resources in China, and it can reach 6% IRR without subsidies. In addition, there are Pinghai area in Putian and Pingtan area in Fujian, with an average power generation hour of more than 4,000 hours and high utilization rate. Of course, the relative construction cost is also the highest in China.

3. The relationship between 3.IRR and OEM price:

Offshore wind power mainframe is less than 4000 yuan, which may not be profitable in China. For strategic reasons, to increase market share and win the bid at a price below 4,000 yuan will actually make the project return rate around 6%, but it must be a loss in a strategic sector within a group to ensure that the project looks profitable.

Some owners raised the IRR requirements to 8% and 9%. If this level of IRR continues, the owners may not be able to start work for a long time. Fujian's investment faces this problem. The provincial investment group requires IRR to be 8%, but so far, the resources held by the provincial investment group have been unable to start construction, which means that there is no way to complete the renewable energy ratio index stipulated by Fujian Province, and finally it will be forced to start construction as soon as possible, otherwise the resources will be given to enterprises that can reduce IRR demand. After all, every province has this assessment of the proportion of renewable energy.

4, the influence of large fans on the price:

In 2022, the lowest quotation was 8 MW; Some manufacturers are already pushing 9MW, and some are even studying the model of 16MW. Therefore, the larger the unit capacity, the higher the profit if the unit is quoted at 4000 yuan. Because the number of foundation towers is reduced, the whole construction cost will also be reduced. Starting from this year, 10MW has become the mainstream model, and 8MW is expected to end its life cycle after 2022. If it is upgraded to above 1 1MW, personally, the price cannot be lower than 3,800 yuan, otherwise only a few head enterprises can survive through past accumulation.

5. The influence of large fans on utilization hours:

Will not increase proportionally because of the large capacity and the speed per hour. 8MW can generate electricity in Fujian for up to 4000 hours. Large-capacity blades are heavier, and the utilization hours will decrease slightly. However, due to the increase of power generation in one hour, the overall improvement is not an equal increase. Accordingly, the larger the fan capacity, the lower the utilization hours, but the higher the power generation per hour. 6-7MW has reached the best matching state, and there will be a slight decline further, but the power generation is increasing.

6. The influence of large fans on the technical route:

At present, there are many manufacturers whose technical routes are doubly-fed. However, both Goldwind and Yang Ming are developing towards semi-direct drive, because semi-direct drive is between doubly-fed and direct drive. There is both a gearbox and a generator. The gearbox and the generator are directly connected together, realizing compactness and miniaturization. It can not only ensure the utilization hours of wind power direct drive power generation, but also reduce faults. This is a compromise technical solution at present, and I am optimistic about the market share of semi-direct drive in offshore wind power in the future.

The advantage of double-feed is that the quotation is lower. But the problem is oil leakage, easy to get stuck and need to go to sea for maintenance. This part of the cost was hidden in the quotation, and this problem is still difficult to solve. Doubly-fed faults can be supported when wind power subsidies were used in the past. However, under the condition of future parity, the cost of a sea trip is too high. Therefore, I personally feel that the competitive advantage of doubly-fed is basically gone.

If doubly-fed manufacturers do semi-direct drive, the technical difficulty is not great. It is equivalent to digging a deputy chief engineer in Shang You, and it will take half a year to produce a semi-direct drive product.

7. Possibility of achieving parity during the 14th Five-Year Plan:

You can't say that. You must settle down and develop your own mainframe. Strictly speaking, there are several ways to reduce the cost, one is the large fan that everyone said. There is also the lightweight of parts. The third is to improve its power generation speed. The fourth method is to increase the number of single trips. In 2020, the industry will use thousands of tons of ships to transport goods. At present, the production capacity is much higher than the hoisting efficiency, and one ship can directly transport five fans, five leaves and five towers, which greatly reduces the transportation cost (logistics cost accounts for 6% of the total basic cost, and efficient transportation is expected to reduce logistics cost by 80%, that is, reduce the total cost by 4.8%). The fifth is to change the business model by accurately matching the needs of the project. In the past, the OEM was responsible for logistics and transportation to the airport. It often does not match the needs of the construction unit, resulting in the cost of pressing the ship and unable to hoist it in time. The cost of these installed working interfaces can be reduced to the later period of the construction unit, which can reduce the waiting cost and enable a working face to be hoisted continuously. Last year, the biggest waste came from the installation of ships on site, but there was not enough fan supply, which caused the waiting of the installation of ships and made other shipyards have no hoisting resources. In the future, the complete matching between the wind turbine installation ship and the transportation supply chain resources will enable the transport ship resources to achieve the maximum 100% continuous hoisting and reduce the cost.

Need to test the market, each host manufacturer has a product that can support real mass production for two to three years, including its modules to be standardized. The standardized module is the foundation of the main control system, and 65438+ 100mw, 12MW, 14MW may use one platform. If a manufacturer produces the same different models, it can slowly share the cost with the same set of molds. Therefore, from the perspective of cost reduction, there is a great opportunity to achieve parity in 2024 during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period.

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