European and American countries are entangled with China on the issue of RMB exchange rate. As the exchange rate of RMB is kept at a low level, China's exports are kept at a high level, which leads to a growing trade deficit in the United States. The United States and other countries hope that RMB appreciation will change this situation. Considering China's export trade and employment pressure, China resolutely refuses to appreciate the RMB. On the one hand, maintaining exchange rate stability is a last resort. If the RMB appreciates sharply,
It is bound to reduce China's attraction to foreign investment, which will deal a serious blow to China's investment attraction and greatly reduce China's exports. In this case, a large number of private enterprises closed down and a large number of workers lost their jobs, which led to the deterioration of the national political environment and social instability. Although RMB can promote China's imports and reduce the production costs of enterprises, it will only make sense on the basis of stable national economic situation and social stability.
Due to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the economic situation of Americans is even worse, and Americans have greatly reduced their consumption, especially the consumption of goods from China. China's exports have fallen sharply due to the decrease in American consumption. A large number of factories closed down and a large number of workers lost their jobs. Professor Lang Xianping said that the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States was caused by China's massive purchase of US Treasury bonds and the government's capital injection into banks. At the same time, the interest rate in the United States is very low, and Americans use a lot of loans to buy cars and other consumption. It led to the subprime mortgage crisis. This is not unreasonable, and it has a lot to do with the supervision of the US government itself and the bad consumption habits of Americans. In the face of this crisis, the government of China has put forward a 4 trillion investment plan. The main funds are used for infrastructure construction, and some are funds to support enterprises. Large-scale infrastructure construction has promoted the production and employment of a large number of reinforced concrete enterprises, but these investments are all one-off and will not be repeated after completion. Economic development driven by infrastructure construction will not last long. At the same time, a large number of infrastructure construction, especially the construction of high-speed rail and expressway, has exceeded the actual demand of transportation, or exceeded people's consumption capacity. For example, the investment cost of high-speed railway is very high and the cost recovery period is very long. Generally, only the government has the ability and courage to make large-scale investment and construction. However, in order to recover the cost, the fare will not be low, and the price of some routes will be close to that of air tickets, which makes many routes often have few passengers, which is really a secondary waste of resources.
Why is the consumption power of ordinary people so low? Today's buzzwords "I can't afford to get sick" and "I can't afford to die" all reflect the extremely low consumption power of ordinary people. There are many reasons for this. First of all, China has a large population. How does the population of China affect the consumption power of ordinary people? Although the quality of China's labor force has been generally improved and its labor skills have been greatly improved since the reform and opening up, its wages have not kept up with this improvement. The reason is that China has a large population. Even though the quality of labor force has been greatly improved, factories and enterprises have more bargaining space because of the surplus labor force and strong substitutability of labor force. Nowadays, the expansion of university enrollment has also produced the same problem. A large number of enrollment expansion not only seriously reduces the quality of teaching, but also causes the convergence of labor force, making it difficult for college students to be competent for their jobs and forming unhealthy competition. Because the wages of the labor force are not high, the consumption power will naturally not be high. In addition, the overheating of real estate has restricted the consumption power of ordinary people in real estate. Due to the influence of traditional culture, China people have special feelings for their families and houses, so they usually consider buying a house first, followed by buying a car. Developers seized the psychology of buyers, so they raised house prices and squeezed the hard-earned money of ordinary people. Because ordinary people are in a passive position, they can only let developers charge exorbitant prices. Secondly, local governments raise land prices for short-term interests and political achievements, and frequently shoot land kings. The cost of real estate development is indirectly passed on to the buyers. It can be said that local governments have contributed to the rise in housing prices. Education and medical expenses are also ordinary people's.
Important expenses. The consumption power of ordinary people is bound, which leads to sluggish domestic demand and frost in foreign trade exports. The "Troika" proposed by the government can't make a corresponding contribution to China's economic growth, so we can only rely on increasing government investment to boost the economy. Due to the government's massive investment in infrastructure construction, infrastructure accounts for more than 70% of GDP. Imagine what China should use to fill the gap in GPP if these infrastructures are built. By that time, China's economy will be stagnant, or even there will be a big landslide. China's government investment behavior seems a bit like drinking poison to quench thirst, but there is nothing it can do.
How does the government get rid of this passive situation? It is to change the growth mode, control the industrial chain and grasp the high-profit nodes of the industrial chain. China's manufacturing industry today is mainly concentrated in manufacturing. Manufacturing industry is the lowest profit node in the whole industrial chain, which will cause environmental damage, waste of resources and serious labor exploitation. The cleverness of Americans is that they control the industrial chain, high-profit R&D, design, warehousing, logistics and sales. The manufacturing industry with the lowest profit, wasting resources and polluting the environment moved to China, exploiting China's labor force. Moreover, the products often made are sold back to the United States, and China people can't enjoy these products. It's really "a person wearing a Luo Qi, not a sericulture person". In order to protect exports, the government maintains the cheap advantage of labor, or promotes exports through export tax rebates. This way of thinking seems to be contrary to the concept of "economic development for all", and the thinking of growing for the sake of growth cannot really realize the prosperity of the country. The government needs industrial upgrading, strengthening industrial chain control, and re-examining the definition and significance of economic growth. We should not blindly follow the GDP index, but take people-oriented and sustainable development as the basic concept. I believe that the government can seize the new round of development opportunities and truly realize the goal of enriching the country and strengthening the people.