Volcanic eruptions in New Zealand are unpredictable, but scientists have found signs of danger.
According to the classification of volcanologists, the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull is moderate. The "volcanic explosive index" based on the amount of ejecta such as volcanic ash and volcanic gravel is "4". In contrast, Mount Tambora in Indonesia erupted in 18 15, with a magnitude of "7", releasing a lot of substances in the atmosphere, which led to the cooling of the earth and a large-scale crop failure. In addition, the index of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is "6" when 199 1 erupts. Although its scale is 100 times that of Eyjafjallajokull ice sheet, its economic impact has reached $740 million.
In this regard, a new paper published in the scientific journal Nature News on August 6 pointed out that the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull volcano is a "warning", and even a small-scale fire eruption will lead to the tragic result of civilization because of the different locations. Not because it will cause many deaths, but because it will lead to the collapse of important infrastructure such as submarine cables and navigation channels (just like a news that happened some time ago, the grounding of a ship on the Suez Canal will have a devastating impact).
Seven "crisis sites" were identified.
The researchers identified seven major "crisis points", that is, there is important infrastructure next to an active volcano that may erupt in a small scale. If the volcano erupts at such a crisis point, just as Eyjafjallajokull volcano has thrown European aviation into chaos, it may have a chain reaction and bring huge economic impact.
One of the identified crisis locations is Taiwan Province Province, China, which has a major computer chip manufacturer. From the iPhone to the car, the importance of made in taiwan's chips to everything can be seen from the lack of chips (not the influence of volcanoes).
Another crisis occurred in the south, between Taiwan Province Province and the Philippines. There are many submarine cables in Luzon Strait. During the 2006 earthquake, the submarine landslide cut off nine cables, and the Internet was almost completely cut off. In addition, at the scene of the crisis across China and South Korea, some of the most crowded shipping routes in the world will be affected by volcanic ash, and shipping in the Sea of Japan may make mistakes.
In Malaysia, the Straits of Malacca is the crisis site. Because it is also an important route through which 40% of world trade passes every year. The same is true in the Mediterranean region. Vesuvius in the Mediterranean, santorini Island and Campi are all likely to erupt, and volcanic explosivity index is 3 to 6. The author points out that if there is a tsunami caused by volcanic eruption in this area, submarine cables will be destroyed, ports will be destroyed and Suez Canal will be blocked.
Foreseeable far-reaching influence
Thanks to the Eyjafjallajokull ice sheet, I witnessed the consequences of volcanic ash spewing from the crisis site in the North Atlantic. Finally, the threat of the northwest Pacific is the fire-breathing sediment, because it may flow far away, so it may reach Seattle.
About 5600 years ago, the mud flow from Mount Reginald moved more than 60 miles (about 96 kilometers) to Puget Sound and the now bustling Tacoma Port. According to this model, if Reginald volcanic explosivity index is Grade 6, the economic loss in five years may reach 7.6 trillion US dollars.
Without submarine cables, the indispensable means of communication in economic activities will disappear. If the chip factory disappears, the supply chain of electronic equipment will collapse. Once the route is lost, all supply chains will suffer greater losses.
What can scientists do for the world?
Don't stop worrying about large-scale outbreaks. Large-scale eruption will bring fatal damage to nearby residents, and if volcanic ash blocks the sun, it may cause long-term problems.
Volcanologists can use two time periods to predict the probability of volcanic eruption. First of all, if we examine the volcanic eruption data so far, we can make a long-term prediction on when the volcano will erupt again. Secondly, we can also monitor the current seismic activity and look for signs of impending eruption. If these two items are implemented, for example, the probability of volcanic eruption after 100 years can be calculated, which can save lives in the case of calling for refuge immediately.
Even so, it is impossible for volcanologists to strengthen the world's infrastructure construction in order to cope with large and small volcanic eruptions. Werner Marzocchi, a volcanologist at the University of Naples, said: "Scientists can make predictions and provide inspiration for what might happen. But this does not stop the eruption of the volcano. " .
Nevertheless, scientists have more and more clearly described how the economic and supply chain chaos will chain from the periphery of the volcano to the rest of the world. Marzocchi said: "I hope volcanologists, stimulated by such a paper, can take into account the fact that not only the impact of volcanic eruption on the local area is very important, but everything that may happen next is very important." .