Unlike SARS in that year, China's economy soared in 2003. Although the epidemic at that time also swept the land of China, after the epidemic, the positive market environment made the domestic economy recover rapidly, especially the automobile market. Even under the influence of SARS, the automobile sales in the first quarter of 2003 increased by 65,438+003% year-on-year, and increased by 66% in the second quarter.
But now, the automobile market in China is experiencing a cold winter. Since 20 18, the sales volume of domestic automobile market has been declining continuously. In 20 18, the total sales volume of narrow passenger cars in China decreased by 3% year-on-year. In 20 19, the annual sales volume of narrow sense passenger cars in China was 20.7 million, down 7.4% year-on-year. However, before the winter passed, novel coronavirus came first. Due to the severe epidemic situation, local governments have chosen to extend the Spring Festival holiday to avoid further expansion of the epidemic, which also means that the resumption of work of major domestic enterprises will be postponed and economic benefits will be further affected. In this environment, how will the automobile market be affected?
In the environment of delayed resumption of work, the most intuitive impact on the auto market is the production capacity of major auto companies. According to market research institute IHS? Markit predicts that Shanghai, Guangdong and Wuhan will reduce production by at least 6.5438+0.5 million vehicles in this epidemic. Although the final economic loss is still lack of specific estimation, the loss brought by the whole incident to the automobile industry will far exceed the SARS epidemic in 2003.
A large number of cars stop production, which will lead to short-term demand in the market, especially the public transport problem of this epidemic will affect the market demand for cars from the side. The outbreak of the epidemic may lead to a short-term car buying craze, especially for those who just need to buy a car, the importance of private car travel will be clearly understood. This can be seen from the auction prices of license plates in various places.
Taking Guangzhou as an example, although the auction and lottery of Guangdong A brand in June 5438+ 10 were postponed to February 3, the auction results showed that the auction price of Guangdong A brand increased obviously, and the lowest transaction price reached 14800 yuan, which was10800 yuan higher than that of Guangdong A brand in February 20 19. However, in June 5438+ 10, the number of people bidding for Guangdong A brand dropped significantly, which also means that the people who just need it are more interested in buying cars, and there are many side effects of this epidemic.
In addition, this shutdown will also lead to a certain degree of contradiction between supply and demand. On the time node, novel coronavirus broke out in spring, and the final handover time was from 20 19 to 2020. Based on the previous automobile marketing rules, the cars produced in 20 19 and 12 years were officially delivered to the dealers at this time.
However, with the delay of the construction period and the impact of the environment, it means that the latest inventory in the hands of dealers is only the cars produced in 65438+February last year, and there is still a lack of follow-up new cars for supply, which leads to the problem of short supply. For consumers, tight supply and demand is likely to lead to a decline in car price concessions, or even price increases. However, from the point of view of purchase, it is quite uneconomical to increase the price to buy the model produced in 65438+February last year, which has been in stock for more than three months, thus forming a contradictory relationship between buyers and sellers. In the end, consumers with rigid demand and some car companies with declining market conditions may suffer.
From a strategic point of view, the release of new cars of major car companies will also be postponed because of this epidemic. At least in the first half of this year, we can see only a handful of new cars. Most new car releases will be piled up until the second half of the year, and some non-heavy models will even face the situation of being stranded. But for car companies, the more severe test lies in the marketing plan shortened due to the epidemic. We should know that a new car has to go through four stages from release to listing: exposure, release, test drive and listing, which also needs to be mixed with various offline activities, online promotion and marketing strategies. Generally speaking, the launch of a new car is as short as one month and as long as six months. In 2020, there is only the second half of the year left for car companies. The time of Beijing Auto Show is unclear and can be left to car companies. Time and publicity opportunities are already quite tight.
However, for consumers, this situation may reduce our car purchase cost again. After all, car companies lost half a year. In order to boost sales, the price of automobile products may usher in a further decline, so the second half of this year may be a good time to start with automobiles.
The outbreak of the epidemic will also have a huge impact on suppliers, and the severity of this impact will even affect the global market. Due to the delay in returning to work, many domestic auto parts suppliers are in short supply. At present, Toyota Synthetic, Denso Aisin Seiki and other enterprises are discussing whether to carry out alternative production in bases outside China around the long-term suspension of production.
A spokesman for Hyundai Motor even said that they plan to suspend the production of the SUV model Palisade in South Korea before February 9 to cope with the supply chain disruption caused by the virus outbreak. South Korea's Ssangyong Motor Co., Ltd. will also close its Pyeongtaek plant in South Korea from February 4 to February 12, because the shutdown of the China plant interrupted the supply of spare parts.
In addition, auto parts suppliers affected by this epidemic also include brands such as Bosch and Ambofu. China can be said to be one of the largest producers of auto parts in the world, and the impact of this epidemic on the reduction of auto parts production is not only domestic but also global. Take India as an example. In 20 19, the turnover of India's parts industry was US$ 57 billion, of which China imported parts worth US$ 4 billion. Bosch's sales in Asia-Pacific region in 20 19 reached 22.5 billion euros, of which more than/kloc-0.0 billion euros came from China market.
Obviously, the epidemic situation also highlights China's status as a major producer in the world, and the shutdown of parts industry has a far-reaching impact on the global automobile industry. Moreover, as the hardest hit area, there are more than 650 automobile parts production enterprise bases in Wu Hanyou, such as Webasto, Valeo, Cummins, johnson controls, TRW, Mahler, etc., among which many major international automobile parts production enterprises have settled in Wuhan. After the epidemic, how to serve the supply chain will be a key topic in China and even the global market.
20 19 was originally a year that was not very friendly to the automobile industry, especially for dealers, 20 19 was even more difficult. However, the decline of 20 19 has not passed, and the novel coronavirus epidemic in 2020 further dragged them into the abyss. The epidemic not only delayed the construction period of dealers, but also meant that their revenues in recent months were wiped out. Although car companies have cancelled the sales target in February, dealers still have to face huge operating costs, and venue rent and labor costs are real money.
Of course, some car companies have made corresponding strategies to reduce the pressure on dealers. For example, Volvo bears 50% of the salary expenses of the employees of various dealers. But for car companies that are also struggling, in such an environment, how many car companies can allocate more funds to support dealers? Bian Xiao thinks there are only a few. Therefore, in 2020, dealers will face greater difficulties, and the tragedy of huge groups may happen again, which also forces the existing marketing thinking to change. How to find a new point of sale will become a key topic for car companies and dealers.
(Article with map source network, invasion and deletion)
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.