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Analyzing the roots of the economic system, during the period of economic transition, the main economic system presents the following characteristics:
Financial System Under the planned economy system, finance has always been the "general manager" of the whole national economy. Finance is the basis for the government to allocate resources, which embodies the functional characteristics of "strong finance". With the advancement of economic system reform and the change of national income distribution pattern, the fiscal system of unified revenue and expenditure has evolved into the current fiscal system, that is, the fiscal nature of public finance and state-owned assets is not clear, and the two types of fiscal revenue and expenditure are tied together. But also presents the functional characteristics of "weak finance". From the perspective of fiscal revenue, the proportion of fiscal revenue is decreasing year by year, and extra-budgetary funds are expanding. Since the reform and opening up, although the absolute amount of national fiscal revenue has been increasing, the proportion of fiscal revenue in GDP has dropped from 32. 1% in 1978 to 10.7% in 1995. The lack of national fiscal revenue has seriously affected and even weakened the play of government functions. From the perspective of fiscal expenditure, fiscal revenue is difficult to meet the needs of fiscal expenditure. The dual functions of China's finance in economy and society determine that: on the one hand, the state-owned assets finance needs the government to continuously invest funds to ensure the operation of the state-owned economy; On the other hand, public finance requires the government to build public projects and provide the necessary infrastructure for the market. However, at present, a considerable part of the effective financial resources of the state finance, especially the central finance, can only be used for "eating", which is difficult to meet the needs of realizing financial functions. From the perspective of fiscal balance, from 1979 to 1998 and then to 19, except for 198 1 and 1985, the fiscal deficit is increasing every year. First, to make up for the fiscal balance by issuing additional money and financial issuance; The second is to make up for it by issuing government bonds. The former compensation method is not feasible due to the restriction of the People's Bank of China Law, and the latter compensation method is also easy to form the pattern of deficit debt and debt consumption, thus inducing the financial crisis.
Financial system During the planned economy period, the main functions of the People's Bank of China were to issue money, accept deposits and provide loans to state-owned enterprises according to the central mandatory plan, which were actually financial accounting and cashier. With the reform and opening up, the People's Bank of China was transformed into the central bank on 1983. However, commercial banks do not exist, so it is impossible to play the role of central bank. From 65438 to 0995, the National People's Congress passed the People's Bank of China Law and the Commercial Bank Law. Although the promulgation of these two laws provided a theoretical and legal basis for the establishment of modern central banks and commercial banks, their effects did not immediately appear. At present, although state-owned specialized banks have certain autonomy, they are still subject to the policy guidance of the central government and the intervention pressure of local governments, so they are not really market-oriented commercial banks.
From the analysis of the relationship between finance and finance, in finance, due to the current financial difficulties, the role of finance in income distribution, resource allocation and economic adjustment has been weakening, and finance has to transfer the task of alleviating various economic interests conflicts in the transition period to the financial department; In finance, because there is no ban system with clear property rights and market rule at present, finance can transfer that function of financial fund allocation and social security substitution to the financial sector through the blood relationship between state-owned banks and state-owned enterprises, which leads to the alienation of financial functions. Microscopically, it will lead to a large number of deposits of non-performing assets of bank credit, the decline of bank benefits or even losses, and banks and enterprises are caught in debt traps, which are difficult to extricate themselves; Macroscopically, it will lead to inflation, form a reverse mechanism of money supply, and then induce financial risks and crises.
Financing system At present, China is a state-monopolized credit system and a bank-led financing system. The basic feature of state monopoly credit system is that credit is concentrated in state banks, and indirect financing is bound to dominate the financing system. The reality in China is that, on the one hand, due to the underdeveloped capital market, residents' consumption surplus is deposited in banks, making state-owned banks the main financial intermediaries and the indirect financing system further strengthened; On the other hand, the proportion of fiscal revenue to national income is decreasing year by year, so the government can only turn to banks to maintain its monopoly position as an investor. In the case of high inflation rate and high national investment cost, it will inevitably lead to high structural risks of soft assets and hard liabilities of banks, and will inevitably transfer the business risks of enterprises directly or indirectly to banks, making banks the focus of economic risks.
Relationship between banks and enterprises Under the state-monopolized credit system and bank-led financing system, there is a huge chain of creditor's rights and debts between banks and enterprises in China. According to the preliminary statistics of the head office of the People's Bank of China, by the end of 1994, this amount had risen to 1000 billion yuan, and the non-performing loan ratio of the whole state-owned banking system was about 30%, equivalent to more than four times the total principal of state-owned banks, most of which was owed by state-owned enterprises. At the end of 1999, the overall net loss of state-owned enterprises was still rising, with a loss of 67.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2000 alone, which shows that the debt crisis between banks and enterprises is worsening. However, there is always a limit to maintaining the solvency of the financial system through the excessive issuance of money by the central bank and the expansion of debts by state-owned banks. If the financial system can't effectively curb the trend of "soft assets" of corporate creditor's rights and "hard liabilities" of household savings, we can't deny the possibility that the sudden collapse of commercial credit and bank credit will lead to social unrest and serious economic recession. This can be explained by the debt-deflation financial crisis theory of economist Fisher and others. Fisher and others believe that some exogenous events have caused the process of economic expansion, because these exogenous events have provided new profit opportunities for key sectors of the economy, caused the increase of investment in these sectors, and improved the level of output, price and profit. Rising prices and profit levels will not only encourage more investment, but also trigger speculation on capital gains. This process is mainly through debt financing, the most important of which is bank loans, which increase deposits and money supply and push the price level up further. All this makes people feel optimistic about the economic momentum, which will increase the circulation speed of money and make the economy expand at a faster speed. Rising prices have also reduced the real value of outstanding debts, further encouraging lending activities. This process will continue to the state of "excessive debt", that is, there is not enough current assets to pay off the debts due, thus causing a chain debt-deflation process. China enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises, have high financial leverage and poor efficiency, which makes the proportion of non-performing assets in state-owned banks high and the banking system fragile, so there is the possibility of debt-deflation process.
Financial Market System The current financial market in China is not standardized. Judging from the money market, short-term hot money has a certain scale, which Mr. Liu Guangdi estimated at around 300 billion. These hot money, together with more funds illegally lent by some financial institutions, have seriously impacted the stock market. From the perspective of the capital market, the "327 national debt storm" that eventually led to the closure of the national debt market broke out; Excessive speculation in the stock market is more obvious. The financial risks caused by the sharp increase of stock market assets and the rapid flow of high-return hot money may suddenly erupt in the form of the final bursting of the stock market bubble, the inability to clear the loan market, and the irreparable loss of a financial institution after illegal operation.
It is precisely because of the deviation of the transitional economic system that the current financial situation in China is no longer a general financial risk problem, but a serious financial crisis lurks. As pointed out in the research report of the World Bank, the current financial risks in China (which they think belong to the category of financial risks) include non-performing assets of banks, pension debts, foreign debts, government debts, losses of state-owned enterprises and their capital subsidies, bankruptcy of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and commitment to the growth rate of science, education and environmental protection. ①
From the above analysis, it can be concluded that China's financial risks can not be simply attributed to the "liquidity shortage" mentioned by western banks, but have deep-seated historical and institutional reasons. The potential financial risk in China is not a simple financial problem, but a linkage financial risk and crisis caused by the mutual penetration and influence of financial and financial problems. Therefore, we can't unilaterally seek countermeasures to prevent financial risks from the financial perspective, but should comprehensively investigate financial factors, find out the causes of China's potential financial crisis, and thus seek a radical solution.
Third, the basic financial ideas to prevent China's financial risks
(A) institutional choice: building a dual financial system model
Dual financial system mode refers to the relatively independent and unified financial system mode of public finance and state-owned assets finance (see the figure below).
The relatively independent and unified public finance and state-owned assets finance are isomorphic to form a dual financial system model under the condition of socialist market economy: public finance enables our government as a social manager to provide public services to the market, make up for market failures and ensure the effective operation of the market; State-owned assets finance enables our government to directly enter the market as the owner of assets and conduct profit-making activities to ensure the development and growth of state-owned economy (state-owned enterprises and state-owned commercial banks) in the market competition.