I. Introduction
With August 3rd, 20041day as the watershed, the real estate industry in China entered a new development period. With the change of national economic environment, there are many debates on whether there is a "bubble" inside and outside the industry. As a result, the "land auction and auction" and the "agreement transfer" with very strict control measures ushered in China. The "one premise and two chains" in the industry has changed greatly compared with the past, and the risk factors are increasing. Risk exists in the whole project development process, which makes small and medium-sized real estate enterprises in an extremely difficult situation. Therefore, strengthening the risk management of development projects and ensuring the realization of project goals and objectives is the key process to realize the firm's tight encirclement and steady development.
Second, the risk analysis of real estate development projects
Risk is the degree of difference between the possible results under specific objective conditions and in a specific period, and is actually the degree of change between the actual results and the planned results. The greater the change, the greater the so-called risk. The risk of real estate development projects is actually the inherent risk in the development process of developers. In the current economic environment, it is mainly manifested in the following aspects:
1. Locate project risks. The market positioning of real estate development projects, including product positioning, building product quality positioning and building environment quality positioning, is based on market research, project economic and technical analysis and project feasibility study report, and is the basis for guiding project decision-making, project design, project marketing planning and other preliminary work. It can be said that after the market positioning of the project is determined, the construction style, construction cost and marketing promotion plan of the project are basically finalized, which determines the sales prospect of the project. Once the market positioning is not accurate, the guiding ideology of the project will make mistakes, which is a risk that can not be compensated or is difficult to compensate in the later stage. It is also the risk of decision-making mistakes in project development, which belongs to the overall risk (decision-making risk) to some extent from the scope of risk influence.
2. Risk of project investment support capacity. Before and after the publication of the "Project Feasibility Study Report", due to the vague or contradictory understanding of market positioning; Or not really "tailor-made" or "do what you can"; Either the financing (self-owned funds) and financing ability of enterprises are overestimated, or there are serious mistakes in project cost analysis; Or they have not fully understood the industrial policies of the state and local governments and are not sure about the big economic environment; Or the cost process control is seriously out of control (unexpected events), too many unexpected factors, etc., which leads to the project fund payment ability can not meet the planned requirements and brings risks (controllable risks and decision-making risks) to the project construction.
3. Quality risk of the project. Including: the quality problem caused by the contradiction between quality and price due to the error of economic and technical analysis in the project decision-making stage; In the design stage, put forward the requirements that violate the design norms and standards, especially the mandatory standards, and take care of the "speculative" quality problems brought about by adoption through "relationship"; The quality risk caused by employees' serious mistakes in understanding the design knowledge and changing the design without authorization during the construction stage; In the process of construction management, we don't pay attention to the follow-up inspection and treatment of key parts and key working procedures, and some problems that are easy to affect the structural safety, especially those that do not affect the structural safety but have a serious impact on the normal use function, such as "permanent defects" that are not "controlled in advance" or "hidden dangers" of quality after sale and handover (actually disputes caused by "common quality defects"); The problem of "physical quality" caused by the inconsistency between delivery, sales and advertising, and the risk of disputes and conflicts caused by "quality" (controllable risk).
4. Risk of project performance ability. In the process of project operation and construction, contracts or agreements such as land transfer, financing, design, supervision, engineering geological survey, design and survey and design results review, bidding agency, construction, material and equipment supply, quality inspection, sales commission, house purchase, etc. Be signed and executed. Due to the one-time (non-repeatable) characteristics of the project, the construction period is long and involves a wide range. If there are control mistakes in key processes, such as under the current land supply system and loan policy, it is a common way for enterprises to try to highlight the "bottleneck" constraint, and sometimes they may fall into the "trap" because of "omitting the process" in the case of "hunger for food".
5. Risk of "innovation" in project construction. The current economic environment makes the land and capital conditions for project construction more important than ever. Under the condition of limited resources, it is very necessary for enterprises to develop continuously and stably, pursue planned profits and obtain established benefits. In this case, it is extremely risky to pursue the "difference" between the project and the surrounding projects for the purpose of service, and choose the "innovation" that one's own enterprise is unfamiliar with or does not know enough to complete the pursuit, not to mention the risk of normal innovation itself.
6. The "government" risk of the project. The risks of "government" mostly occur in the discontinuity, mutation and loopholes of policies. For enterprises, it mainly occurs in the speculative process of illegal operation and blind process errors that do not understand policies. In the process of project construction, enterprises must master relevant laws: People's Republic of China (PRC) Construction Law, People's Republic of China (PRC) Contract Law, People's Republic of China (PRC) Land Law, People's Republic of China (PRC) Bidding Law, People's Republic of China (PRC) Urban Real Estate Law and People's Republic of China (PRC). The laws and regulations that must be mastered are: Regulations on Quality Management of Construction Projects, etc. You must master the departmental rules, normative documents and mandatory standards that supplement and operate relevant laws and regulations.
Third, the content of the developer's project risk management
Risk management is based on risk identification, risk assessment and risk assessment. On this basis, it optimizes various risk management technologies, effectively controls risks, and properly handles the consequences caused by risks, so as to achieve the purpose of obtaining safety assurance at the lowest cost. The main body of risk management is the decision-making layer of the enterprise, and its core is to choose the combination of risk technology management, with the aim of achieving safety and security efficiency. Therefore, the main contents of developer risk management are:
1, reasonably define the project scope, strengthen the control of project scope change, subdivide the project tasks into more specific, clear, strict and easy to control, and avoid the risks caused by omissions.
2, reasonably determine the project management objectives, under the overall requirements of enterprise development planning and strategy, according to the basis provided by the project "Economic and Technical Analysis Report" and "Project Feasibility Study Report", make project decisions with scientific methods and attitudes, determine project objectives, and avoid the risk of decision mistakes.
3. Prepare the project management plan, decompose the project work, identify, analyze and evaluate the project objectives and possible risk influencing factors in the process of achieving the objectives, put forward methods and measures to solve problems and avoid risks according to general laws, and use the project management plan to guide the project construction and project plan management.
4. According to the external environment to achieve the goal, adhere to the principles of "pre-control" and "process control", identify, analyze (evaluate or calculate) and evaluate the risk factors in the implementation process according to the methods and measures given in the project management plan, adjust and optimize various risk technologies realistically, and formulate countermeasures to eliminate them as far as possible.
5. Strengthen the planning means of risk management, decompose manageable risks into different processes, meet the basic objectives, principles and requirements of planning requirements, and do a good job in risk monitoring. In the process, dynamic management is adopted, resources are rationally allocated, and the risks brought by uncertain factors in the project implementation process are reduced according to methods such as target management, node assessment and professional supervision, so as to avoid the possibility that potential risks turn into explicit risks.
6. Reasonable organizational structure, clear job responsibilities, straighten out the management relationship and feedback relationship, establish the communication function of the project, and provide information guarantee for risk management within the project management and in the interface of relevant parties, especially in the functions and organizations where misunderstandings and contradictions often occur.
7. Strengthen contract management. Communicate information in time, eliminate the influence of instability and distrust in the process of performance, focus on the interests (planned profits) of the project, and carry out work according to the work priorities at different stages and the contents agreed in the contract, so as to avoid the performance risks brought by conflicts and control the project cost; Use existing relevant laws and regulations to avoid or transfer known risks through contract decomposition, claim and counterclaim.
8. Strengthen the supervision and management of the internal implementation of the project (system management) to avoid the risks caused by human factors. Strengthen the financial supervision and professional supervision of plan implementation, strengthen the supervision of enterprise rules and regulations, work standards and workflow implementation, track and check the implementation of the plan in time, provide a basis for decision-makers to modify the plan in time, remind the plan implementation layer to pay attention to deviations, and effectively control and manage expected risks or risk factors.
Four. Countermeasures and suggestions for developers to avoid project risks
1. Establish or attach a regular information collection and processing organization for enterprises, study national and regional economic policies and industrial policies, and timely and accurately analyze the planning, land, projects (including intentions under construction) and suitable projects of various districts (sections) in this region, so as to provide accurate basis for enterprise management decisions. Regular calm analysis, more temporary "spoon-feeding" analysis of the basis and reasons will be more abundant; Reasonable arrangement of resources, putting "Kung Fu" first, and doing "important but not urgent" work in the time management quadrant will certainly be more calm and thorough than doing "important and urgent" work, provide more scientific decision-making basis, and have stronger ability to avoid the risks brought by wrong decision-making basis.
2, reasonably equipped with basic job skills and knowledge of marketing, development, technical personnel, strengthen job skills training, improve comprehensive knowledge ability, improve risk analysis, identification, evaluation ability, cultivate extensive knowledge, scientific attitude and enthusiasm for active work, combined with corporate culture construction, combined with corporate rules and regulations, with support, encouragement, supervision, inspection, improvement and other methods, the enterprise products.
3. Due to the seriousness of "decision-making risk consequences" caused by decision-making mistakes, the decision-making layer of an enterprise must be composed of senior management and technical management personnel with reasonable knowledge structure, and must have certain professional and comprehensive industry knowledge and the ability to identify, judge and deal with risks, and have the ability to plan, organize, communicate and coordinate, be familiar with the basic laws of industry work, and understand the laws, regulations and normative documents promulgated by relevant administrative departments of the state and local governments. Simply put, it is to know how to operate, know how to manage, and know laws and regulations. Only in this way can we avoid risks such as speculation, policies and guarantees and properly handle the consequences of risks.
4. Actively promote the scientific, standardized and legal management construction of enterprises, gradually realize the systematization, institutionalization and proceduralization of enterprise management, formulate enterprise standards, working procedures and workflows that are compatible with ISO 9000: 2000 quality management standards, establish modern enterprise management systems and processes, and apply the eight principles of quality management (① focus on customers; 2 leadership; ③ Full participation; ④ Process method; ⑤ Management methods of the system; ⑥ Continuous improvement; ⑦ Decision-making method based on facts; (8) mutually beneficial relationship with suppliers. ) standardize enterprise management behavior and really improve the quality of work. Manage with management system, standardize professional behavior with work standards, procedures and systems, so that the work has a basis, the effect is proved, the investigation has clues, and the risks brought by uncertainty and blindness are reduced.
5. Strengthen the employees' study of current laws and regulations and enterprise rules and regulations, grasp the departmental rules, normative documents and mandatory standards of the national and local governments in this industry in time, understand the policy provisions, improve the ability to identify "illegal" behaviors, avoid "policy risks", and avoid speculative risks and government risks (punished according to the Regulations on Quality Management of Construction Projects).
6, strengthen the project bidding management, contract management, improve the ability of cost control and contract management. In the process of bidding, we should accurately control the target, make use of the mechanism of competition, price and supply and demand, and make reasonable bidding conditions for construction period, quality, cost and safety, so as to create a working quality environment for project contract management; In the process of signing the contract, be good at using the provisions of laws and regulations to eliminate, reduce and transfer manageable risks according to law; During the performance of the contract, we should reasonably apply the provisions of the Contract Law, the Construction Law and other laws and regulations, and use risk management techniques and financial means to effectively control "contractor risk", "owner risk", "supplier risk" and "guarantor risk". Never allow "violation" or "breach of contract" in the process to lead to "unexpected" risks out of control.
7. Use technical means such as plan management, target management, process supervision and node assessment to effectively control the "before" and "during" the risk management process. When making a plan, identify, analyze and evaluate the types, scope, time and impact of risks, and formulate measures and methods to avoid risks, decompose risks and control risks according to general laws; In the process of implementation, strengthening the supervision of the plan, organizing the evaluation and examination of the implementation effect in time according to the principles of target management and node assessment, scientifically adjusting the plan and response measures with a realistic attitude, and summarizing and closing the phased management objectives in time are effective ways to ensure that risk management achieves the set goals.
8. Pay attention to "process control", strengthen the management of key parts and links, and eliminate the influence of "quality risk" and "agreement and contract performance risk". In the planning and decision-making stage, correctly grasp the development law of the industry, objectively carry out project feasibility assessment, construction environment assessment and economic and technical analysis, accurately carry out market research and enterprise investment support capacity analysis, correctly determine the product positioning and quality positioning of the project, reasonably determine the investment quota, and avoid the risk of contradiction between quality and input; In the design stage, we should supervise and review the design according to the requirements of product market positioning and standards, and control the most critical step of investment control (generally accounting for 90%-95% of the project product investment); In the stage of bidding and contract signing, accurately set the target, reasonably grasp the preferential conditions of bidding, sign an effective and favorable agreement (contract), and do a good job in the key second step of investment control (generally accounting for 5-! 0%); In the project implementation stage, strengthen the control of "investment, quality, time limit for a project and safety", strengthen the management of "contract and information", strengthen the coordination between the construction process and the relevant units of the project, strengthen the supervision of key parts and processes that are prone to "common quality problems", have an impact on the structure and use function, and have an important impact on investment and the environmental quality of the community, and effectively control the risks in the implementation process.
9. Pay attention to the evaluation and examination of phased work (process and activities) and implementation results in the process of project completion, sum up experience in time, close the phased plan, and create a foundation for enterprises to correctly understand their own management level and continuously improve the next work. The assessment of phased work can be organized by the project management, or the functional supervisor can control the target organization in stages or according to the planned nodes. The content of assessment is the completion of control objectives and phased objectives in the planning node. The result of the evaluation is to decide whether to adjust the plan, adjust the target or close the phased management task. The subject of project management assessment is a part of enterprise management or organizational structure, and the object of assessment is project management (mainly project manager). The assessment content is to make a final evaluation of project implementation (including node closure), project management level and management performance according to the objectives and indicators specified in the project management objective responsibility book, and confirm whether the periodic assessment results, final results and functions of the project management organization (project department) are "disintegrated".
Verb (abbreviation of verb) conclusion
The construction of real estate projects is a long-term process. The one-off and non-repeatable characteristics of the project and too many uncertain factors in the process constitute various risks in the project process, and risks abound in every process (activity). To some extent, the process of project construction is actually a process of risk management and risk avoidance, and risk management (identification, analysis, evaluation and treatment) depends on the strength, management level, management experience, professional ethics and knowledge level of the enterprise "team". The avoidance, mitigation and transfer of each risk is the result of comprehensive management. Therefore, we should establish a modern management system and an organizational structure that adapts to the development of the market environment. According to ISO9000:2000 family and ISO 10006: 1997 standard (quality guide for quality management project management), we should pay attention to the management of all links in the process, pay attention to the systematic, institutionalized and programmed management of enterprises, treat risks objectively and manage risks effectively.